slowing down a little bit  

update 27.03.2014  invested 0.50274831BTC, ~0.5730%. someone invested around 10BTC site bankroll 87.729964 & site profit 7.5761368
update 29.03.2014  invested 0.50119015BTC, ~0.5799%.        --                               site bankroll 86.413821 & site profit 7.3096741
update 31.03.2014  invested 0.50105838BTC, ~0.5818%.        --                               site bankroll 86.111018 & site profit 7.2879652
update 01.04.2014  invested 0.49928940BTC, ~0.6559%. someone divested around 10BTC site bankroll 76.112282 & site profit 7.0671325
update 03.04.2014  invested 0.49568540BTC, ~0.6559%.        --                               site bankroll 75.570088 & site profit 6.5321816
update 05.04.2014  invested 0.50258219BTC, ~0.6748%.        --                               site bankroll 74.468509 & site profit 7.5569766
update 06.04.2014  invested 0.51373044BTC, ~0.6751%. someone lost a good bunch    site bankroll 76.089872 & site profit 9.2192624
update 08.04.2014  invested 0.51381687BTC, ~0.6748%.                                          site bankroll 76.142872 & site profit 9.2322916
update 10.04.2014  invested 0.51486498BTC, ~0.6749%.                                          site bankroll 76.278760 & site profit 9.3902180
update 11.04.2014  invested 0.51932647BTC, ~0.6750%. dan&diceclay on a roll            site bankroll 76.925722 & site profit 10.061522 wooohooo two digits!  
update 13.04.2014  invested 0.52600862BTC, ~0.6710%.                                          site bankroll 78.382643 & site profit 11.099135
update 15.04.2014  invested 0.55111937BTC, ~0.6695%. someone lost big (thresher?)   site bankroll 82.317594 & site profit 14.909130
update 17.04.2014  invested 0.54708222BTC, ~0.5726%. lots of gambling, more invest   site bankroll 95.540405 & site profit 15.189882
update 19.04.2014  invested 0.56231407BTC, ~0.5714%.                                          site bankroll 98.221269 & site profit 17.802014
update 21.04.2014  invested 0.56342385BTC, ~0.5683%.                                          site bankroll 99.127337 & site profit 18.009710
update 23.04.2014  invested 0.57325047BTC, ~0.5670%.                                          site bankroll 101.08858 & site profit 19.857015
update 25.04.2014  invested 0.61408114BTC, ~0.5368%.                                          site bankroll 114.39544 & site profit 27.106403 wow!
update 27.04.2014  invested 0.61630111BTC, ~0.5209%. my % of the br is shrinking     site bankroll 118.31066 & site profit 27.534323
update 29.04.2014  invested 0.60495744BTC, ~0.3986%. br exploding, profit down        site bankroll 151.74589 & site profit 25.610557
update 30.04.2014  invested 0.76835993BTC, ~0.5144%. 1Dice1 got hit by variance      site bankroll 149.35559 & site profit 58.255281
update 02.05.2014  invested 0.76819967BTC, ~0.4450%. br is still growing                   site bankroll 172.60037 & site profit 58.209752

have a nice weekend, guys!

Just tried, faster than before, thanks for the great work ED team!

Note that those "Chinese Slumber" predictions are tests of a conjecture about the Huobi prices at late night local time being more predictable than prices at other exchanges or other times, or daily mean prices.  They are not meant to be taken as trading advice; readers beware.

That said, the prediction is at the top of the post: it says that the price at Huobi at the stated hour (~19:30 UTC) will be 2837 CNY, sightly higher than the last price at the same hour (2818 CNY).  The method does not try to predict the price between those two moments.

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 02

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-05-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2837 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was again quite good (S = 0.0032, W = 0.812), but still a little above the previous trend line (by 16 CNY).  The last four points Apr/28--May/01 still fit fairly well a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2913.63, B = -197.68, and Q = 0.789.  (This trend is closer to a straight line than the previous one.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD. It was 6.11 on May 1st, 6.22 on Apr/30, and 6.25 on Apr/29.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-05-01, 02:52 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction for Huobi was fairly good, only a bit too pessimistic:

Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2818 CNY
Error: 16 CNY (~2.60 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was further off, due to a change in the R factor:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 461 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
NOTE:
  "I hate spinach. That's good, because, if I loved spinach, I would eat it, and I hate it."
      -- Prudhomme

since we're already at ~470k bets, it would be nice to see a little giveaway for the one millionth bet I think. (no 0 bets of course) 

what do you think ED?

1000th post for the give away guy

I can't believe the site already won 58BTC! 1DiCe1 may come back, he will win 0.01/day for 5more days which may induce him to play more

Martingale works if used properly. It's all about technique, patience and not being greedy.

Total Wagered   2.47892752
Total Profit   -0.95319762; can I get a small one time bonus?

Not very lucky on ED, https://everydice.com/?r=744 play on my ref link!?

Wow site profit 58.292889 I checked few hours ago and profit was only 18BTC

How'd you lose it? What is site profit at now?

Total Profit   10.79090048

i went crazy another time, holy sh**

gonna bet 3 times with 0btc now

Nije žvaka za seljaka !

Ako ovdje ima prosvijećenijih i ozbiljnijih, zanimala bi me vaša iskustva sa slovenskom tvrtkom

CCB d.o.o., Stegne 27, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia

www.24ccb.net

Okay.

My investment went 0.03 down but now I gambled it and I'm 0.02 on profit

Eh... Those are public stats.

Or did you talk about username?

3 pairs of balls

HOOOOLY SHIT!!