Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[macsga]

I see bottoms too!

- I lost my bitcoin!!!
- SEARCH!!!

[spooderman]

ignorechain.info reveals that Igorr has been confirmed six times, but he may be a double-spend of fonzie.

Caution:  igorr is tainted

I hate having to wait ten minutes between each ignore

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[niothor]

Igorr posting graphs of price crashing , this is a bullish sign.
If we start ignoring China also , we're on the right way .. to the moon!!! .

[Odalv]

135000 new bitcoin every month x  current exchange rate $ 450 = $ 60750000 every month
someone needs to pay it with real money. But who ?

There are 4,000 new accounts every day only at My Wallet

https://blockchain.info/charts/my-wallet-n-users?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

4,000 * 30 = 120,000 new adopters monthly ... not enough bitcoins for everyone.

This is skewed greatly by the fact that their developer API allows you to create a fresh MyWallet for each customer that comes to your site/service.  So this may just mean a lot of people are just signing up to a new service that is backed by Blockchain.info's MyWallet service but no necessarily a new adopter, let alone adding additional value to the market.

Yeah, but it is still just one service, and even if only 1/4 are new adopters, that is 30,000 new adopters a month.  To my knowledge, I had NOT registered any wallet on blockchain info until 4 months after I had been buying bitcoin(s).  There are likely a lot of ways to get into bitcoin without creating a wallet with blockchain.info... so maybe overall, the number of 120,000 per month is an accurate roundabout and overall estimate for the number of new users per month?

I believe that all the estimates remain that bitcoin adoption is increasing, in spite several downfalls and impediments.. but no one really knows the exact numbers, even though there remain several estimations...

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

[niothor]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS witch is not even  2% of population )

I'm looking at the bright side,  even if you just started acquiring your BTC you will still be called an early adopter 10 years from now .

[JohnnyDaMitch]

Long term MACD crossover right around now?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

Long term MACD crossover right around now?

The same thing happened a week ago before the caixin news. It's a trap. The problem is we can't use the 3D MACD when we are so close to the 1W EMAs because the 1W EMAs are crossed down. We need to use the 1W MACD. 1W is now the "long term MACD".

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 02

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-05-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2837 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was again quite good (S = 0.0032, W = 0.812), but still a little above the previous trend line (by 16 CNY).  The last four points Apr/28--May/01 still fit fairly well a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2913.63, B = -197.68, and Q = 0.789.  (This trend is closer to a straight line than the previous one.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD. It was 6.11 on May 1st, 6.22 on Apr/30, and 6.25 on Apr/29.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-05-01, 02:52 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction for Huobi was fairly good, only a bit too pessimistic:

Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2818 CNY
Error: 16 CNY (~2.60 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was further off, due to a change in the R factor:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 461 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
NOTE:
  "I hate spinach. That's good, because, if I loved spinach, I would eat it, and I hate it."
      -- Prudhomme

[cech4204a]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday May 02

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-05-02, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2837 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 461 USD





[ Plot legend ]

Today's data point was again quite good (S = 0.0032, W = 0.812), but still a little above the previous trend line (by 16 CNY).  The last four points Apr/28--May/01 still fit fairly well a shifted decaying exponential A + B*Q**(d-D0), where (d-D0) is the number of days since Apr/28, A = 2913.63, B = -197.68, and Q = 0.789.  (This trend is closer to a straight line than the previous one.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.15 CNY/USD. It was 6.11 on May 1st, 6.22 on Apr/30, and 6.25 on Apr/29.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Thursday 2014-05-01, 02:52 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-05-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

The prediction for Huobi was fairly good, only a bit too pessimistic:

Huobi's predicted price: 2802 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2818 CNY
Error: 16 CNY (~2.60 USD)

The prediction for Bitstamp was further off, due to a change in the R factor:

Bitstamp's predicted price: 450 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 461 USD
Error: 11 USD
 
NOTE:
  "I hate spinach. That's good, because, if I loved spinach, I would eat it, and I hate it."
      -- Prudhomme

in short, will price rise or drop?

[JorgeStolfi]

in short, will price rise or drop?

Note that those "Chinese Slumber" predictions are tests of a conjecture about the Huobi prices at late night local time being more predictable than prices at other exchanges or other times, or daily mean prices.  They are not meant to be taken as trading advice; readers beware.

That said, the prediction is at the top of the post: it says that the price at Huobi at the stated hour (~19:30 UTC) will be 2837 CNY, sightly higher than the last price at the same hour (2818 CNY).  The method does not try to predict the price between those two moments.

[cech4204a]

in short, will price rise or drop?

Note that those "Chinese Slumber" predictions are tests of a conjecture about the Huobi prices at late night local time being more predictable than prices at other exchanges or other times, or daily mean prices.  They are not meant to be taken as trading advice; readers beware.

That said, the prediction is at the top of the post: it says that the price at Huobi at the stated hour (~19:30 UTC) will be 2837 CNY, sightly higher than the last price at the same hour (2818 CNY).  The method does not try to predict the price between those two moments.

well explained, thanks

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[w0lverine]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

[Davyd05]

I've been debating the likely hoods of break outs with China reading the story Chicken Little. In conclusion if btc reverses we will know..stop debating on it everyday, play this trend of pump and dump as best you can if you see fit, but IMO have a position that will benefit you if and when the trains brakes' break off.

[JayJuanGee]

in short, will price rise or drop?

Note that those "Chinese Slumber" predictions are tests of a conjecture about the Huobi prices at late night local time being more predictable than prices at other exchanges or other times, or daily mean prices.  They are not meant to be taken as trading advice; readers beware.

That said, the prediction is at the top of the post: it says that the price at Huobi at the stated hour (~19:30 UTC) will be 2837 CNY, sightly higher than the last price at the same hour (2818 CNY).  The method does not try to predict the price between those two moments.

Possibly, Jorge's converting into a BTC bull?   

Once Jorge converts into a BTC bull, if that happens, then for sure we will be on our way (__________[fill in da blank]_________)

[JayJuanGee]

It is interesting that even if 30,000 NEW adopters a DAY will emerge  then it is only 11,000,000 per YEAR ... ( and only 110 millions per 10 YEARS ... what is less than 2% of population )

You are looking at it the wrong way, addoption is exponential not linear. Once bitcoin appears more and more in the news and starts to go mainstream the rate of adoption will accelarate greatly.
As I am sure I dont need to remind you btc is still magic internet money that a few nerds are playing with.

That's a very good point.. .so we could be conservative and predict something like this (a doubling of the number of new wallets every year):

2014 - 500K new wallets    (this is assuming that about 2/3 of the (1.5million per year) new wallets on the blockchain are NOT really new people into BTC - so I am starting with a fairly low number that is approximately 1/3 of the total number of new wallets)
2015 - 1 million new wallets 
2016 - 2 million new wallets 
2017 - 4 million new wallets 
2018 - 8 million new wallets 
2019 - 16 million new wallets 
2020 - 32 million new wallets 
2021 - 64 million new wallets 
2022 - 128 million new wallets 
2023 - 256 million new wallets 

Total in 10 years = 511.5 million which is fairly conservative and a low estimation and still only about 5% of the population - which really leaves considerable more room for growth.  If you continue with the projection of doubling for another 10 years, then you would reach saturation around 2026 or 2027.. and growth would have to slow down considerably around that time... b/c you would run out of people... though there may be other kinds of entities that would substitute for people.. so you may get a few more years out of the growth.. but likely the whole growth matter would diminish around mid-2020s with a doubling of new wallets every year.


2024 - 512 million new wallets     
2025 - 1 billion new wallets 
2026 - 2 billion new wallets 
2027 - 4 billion new wallets 
2028 - 8 billion new wallets 
2029 - 16 billion new wallets 
2030 - 32 billion new wallets 
2031 - 64 billion new wallets 
2032 - 128 billion new wallets 
2033 - 256 billion new wallets

Yet, even a doubling of new users every year would be a tremendous amount of growth for bitcoin, if such were to happen.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[TERA]

The forums and reddit are now chock full of nothing but bullish posts and bullish PRs.

Therefore, it is going down.