Fuck crypto currencies.. we are neither talking about them in this thread and even if we were, they are not an investment in which DCA makes sense for the long term.. so it tends to be quite misleading to talk about DCAing into shitcoins... even if there might be some short-term ways to carry out DCA.. but we are also not talking about short term practices in this thread, either.

Part of the appeal of DCA is to have some confidence to employ it over the long term. even though surely anyone is free to abandon their investment at any time and then profit in dollars and likely end up undermining their accumulation of BTC if they cannot figure out some meaningful way to stay focused on accumulating BTC, which is part of what DCA helps to accomplish.. the establishing of a position over time and to continue to build such position and to stay in a mindset of continuous and ongoing BTC accumulation.. which likely is going to serve the person better than trying to monkey around with trading and/or even changing his accumulation amounts based on concerns of short-term BTC price directions.

So yeah, the longer that anyone DCAs into BTC, the amount of BTC can more and more begin to be considered as long term savings, even if there may well be some points that some of the savings might start to get dipped into after there has been a sufficient amount of time of building it and even allowing it to appreciate in value, to the extent that it has good chances of continuing to appreciate in value just as it has done historically, and there is no real information to suggest that BTC is going to discontinue appreciating in value, especially when viewed in longer term time frames.

Well one thing is going to supra $80k-ish, but then another thing would be whether we were to not retrace it, which seem to be your framing of the matter. 

That surely seems lower than 10 to 1 odds.. but you could be in the ballpark.. but I am thinking.. maybe 20 to 1 odds.. yet, I am not sure..

It can be difficult to attempt to assign these kinds of crazy possibilities that are not totally crazy but still seem like long shots that are not long shots.

We most likely had some periods of BTC price performance that skipped over quite large sections of BTC prices in the past, but then usually, at some point, there will end up being some retracing, later down the road... not always but frequently, and we could probably fish through some historical examples of such quickly going up and then later retracing.. such as, perhaps, in early 2013, going from $30 to supra $80--- and then never really coming back into that range,  . ..   Yet.. I am not sure?   

Edit:  I just did a quick search for BTC spot prices (not weighted traded volume) through late February 2013 and early March 2013 (which was before my time), it seems that it took 2-3 weeks to go from $30 to $80 - and there was not very much retracing.. just maybe a few days in the $60s and $70s in early July 2013. ... so there was not a whole hell of a lot of retracing $30 to $80..  .. and likely we could find some other examples of sparse amounts of retracing between $100 and $200 too.. pass through mostly in late 2013.. and barely have some days of retracing that fell below $200 in early 2015.  I was around for the 2015 retracing into the sub $200s and they did not last too long or even go very much below $200 for very long..

So yeah, upper $72k-ish to $80k (a bit less than 10% - what is 10% in the scheme of things?)  could end up being one of those kinds of places that ends up having little to no retracing, and it is not even as large of a percentage change, as compared to going from $30 to $80 (about 2.7x) or looking at the separate one of going up from $100 to $200 (a 2x)... even though some of the sub-amounts did end up getting filled in for a day or two here and there on the way up.. and yeah, one thing is spikes of BTC spot prices and another thing is price based on daily weighted volume. which would have to have more trade volume and substance within whatever range for the price for the day to stick, and then to end up with potentially relevant comparables..  based on the weight traded price rather than spot price.

So.. yeah we are looking forward to tomorrow and the sentencing of Sam.. and so quite a bit of curiosities regarding what ends up being the sentence.

Don't get me wrong, but I don't really like Sam, and I think that he is pretty damned close to a total fraud, yet I think that Professor Jonathan Lipson makes a lot of very good points about how Sam's law firm (Sullivan & Cromwell and Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan) (and perhaps John J. Ray, too?) pretty much threw Sam under the bus and engaged in a lot of problematic behaviors when they both took over the FTX and also failed/refused to allow for an examiner, until recently.. and so now that an examiner is going to be assigned to FTX, that same lawfirm is likely going to continue to cover up the extent to which they were responsible for some of the problems with FTX.. and they ended up engaging in a cover-up...

What a bunch of bullshit that there are so many injustices in the world, and sure probably Sam is quite culpable, but there may well be several of the lawfirm folks and perhaps the trustee who are also criminally responsible too.

You can listen to Jonathan Lipson discuss these matters for about 45 minutes in Michael Lewis's Judging Sam podcast.

Well of course there are advantages in being more aggressive and also as aggressive as you are able to be, but if you are ONLY able to invest $10 per week for the next 10 years, you would have had ONLY invested $5,200 after 10 years and you are not going to be coming even close to accumulating a whole coin... yet there is no need to think in terms of whether you can get a whole, coin and you have to attempt to be realistic within the terms of your own personal circumstances.. including finances and psychology.

A similar thing was true 10 years ago.  Bitcoin had a much worse reputation and likely a way weaker investment thesis than it does right now.. except for those who really were either luckily in the right place at the right time or they were able to some how figure out how to start to get their hands on BTC and so even the fairly whimpy investors from  more than 10 years ago were able to profit stupendously from their investment in bitcoin, as long as they mostly continued to invest and they were able to mostly hold through the whole period and perhaps just keep continuously buying..

Surely bitcoin is more available now days than it was 10 years ago.... and surely bitcoin's investment thesis is a lot stronger these days, even if some of the upside price potential might not be as great, it still remains a great place to put you extra money, even if you are ONLY able to accomplish relatively whimpy amounts, such as $10 per week and there are needs to try to stay within your own budget and not to become preoccupied about whether your opportunity has gone or it is not as good and blah blah blah.. There is no way to turn back the clock, but there is a way to still recognize and appreciate that bitcoin remains a great investment, if not the best investment that is widely available for people of all incomes. .even though geographically some folks might have to search out avenues in terms of how to get their bitcoin. 

At the same time, right now, there are still a lot of folks who have hardly any clues about bitcoin  or about how to get bitcoin within their own country.. and trying to figure out where there might be some channels to get BTC within their jurisdiction... so then one thing is if the BTC is available and then other thing is to be able to set aside whatever they are able to do.. and yeah, that could be $100 per week or it might well be in the $10 to $20 range, yet we cannot expect them to be able to invest more than they are able to, even though there likely are a lot of ways that normal folks (normies) can begin to arrange their finances in ways that they have more disposable income in ways of either increasing their income or lowering their expenses.

That mostly makes sense, even though for me it still remains difficult to stop watching... even though it also seems difficult to get overly excited about movements within the current zone..

just moving through this don't wake me up zone, previously known as no man's land, seems to be taking longer than expected, but the thesis of no man's land still seems to underly it and would not get broken until at least some dip below $55k - and gosh even getting to $55k, might not break the underlying thesis of no man's land, either.. - and not that I am even saying that $55k is very likely at all, even though we know that a lot of shocking things can end up being possible and also end up playing out.. and maybe sometimes very extreme measures and bold plays are the ONLY ways to really get the weak hands to sell with passion, while at the same time, the downity runs a lot of risk.. the risk that the  price does not stay down long enough for the downward manipulators to get many if any of their coins back.

I still am expecting some resistance somewhere prior to $100k, and I had been using $94k as my tentative thinking on the possibility of resistance, if any... and so yeah, maybe I am also working somewhat with the rule of 5s too... since maybe even getting above the mid-point might cause some inevitability of pushing through.. yet we might be getting ahead of ourselves, because we likely  realize if the BTC price shot up to $80k in the coming week or two, we may well be just fine, but if it shot up to $94k in the next week or two, then that might be too far too fast..

so I hate to try to figure out too many legs at a time, even though I think that there should be a bit of a gravitation towards the $120k to $180k price range, merely to accommodate the seemingly new buyer types that seem to be entering through the BTC spot ETFs.... and yeah, I am not even saying that $120k to $180k would be stopping points.. but I am saying that based on current conditions, they seem to be largely points of reassessment..and we likely would be able to see if BTC's getting to that price range might help to free up enough BTC supply to satisfy the additional demand that currently seems to be coming into BTClandia...

Either way.. $63k is not that BIG of a deal.. wake me up if we start to get close to falling out of no man's land, which seems to be around $55k-ish... 

In udder words, "no man's land" seems to have converted itself into the new "don't wake me up zone" .. so yeah, don't wake me up between $55k-ish and $82k-ish.. that is our new zone. .and yeah of course, it is a BIG one.. but it seems quite likely if we break out in either direction, it seems breaking upwards seems greater than breaking downward.

Sure, I understand that there are going to be a lot of guys and gals getting their panties all in a wadd in regards to unexplored price territories between $74k and $82k  - but it still seems like a BIG SO WHAT? to this here cat at this here time, even though sure I am going to get excited just like many of the other HODLers - but at the same time, the big SO WHAT? has to do with the current "don't wake me up" range (formerly known as "no man's land") seeming to be a kind of given.. yawn, yawn..

Even a guy investing $10 per week since October 1, 2013 might feel that he does not have enough BTC, but he is in a real good place, since he had invested nearly $5.7k and he has nearly 7.1 BTC.

And the guy investing $100 per week over the last 6 years does not have as many BTC as the guy who started in 2016, but he is in a better position for having had invested into BTC, and he invested $31.4k and he has nearly 2.54 BTC.. still not a bad place to be, but he might feel that he does not have enough, and he likely is not going to catch up to the guy who started in 2013 with only $10 per week.

No one can really tell us where we are going and how long it might take for any of us to feel satisfied with our BTC investment, even thought there surely remains quite a bit of potential value in getting started sooner rather than later, and with the passage of time, BTC's investment thesis is not getting any weaker.


Exactly.  There is a need to stay focused, because whether you are able to invest $10 per week or $100 per week, you are going to really end up diluting your investment if you are fucking around with various shitcoins that may or may not perform.. and the chances of them performing is surely not good.. especially if we consider both upside and downside.. and if we consider places to invest for the longer term such as 4-10 years or even longer.

You do not have to take out a loan in order to invest in bitcoin, and frequently it is not advisable to take out a loan - especially since if anyone has been investing for decently long period of time has still been able to accumulate a lot of bitcoin.. so for example, a person who had been investing $160 per week over the last 6 years would have also invested around $150k and right now, he would be sitting on just over 4 BTC, so he would be in a quite good position based on both the amount that he invested and also the ability to potentially manage such investment.. while at the same time, no one was necessarily going to know about how these kinds of investments would pay off, except there are quite a few bitcoiners participating in this thread (and on this forum) who have been buying BTC for years and years and perhaps have even reached decently good goals in terms of BTC accumulation that are based on their own financial circumstances.

And the longer that any of us had been accumulating, the more likely we would have been able to establish decently strong positions in BTC, and some guys who had been fucking around with leverage or loans and/or other forms of adding extra - when they might not have the money or the income to justify their approach - Some of these guys fucking around may not have had faired as well as the steady accumulator.. including the guy who had been accumulating at $10 per week for the last 10+ years.. such a guy who started on October 1, 2013 would have invested right around $5.7k and would have accumulated nearly 7.1 BTC.

Of course, bitcoin likely does not have as much upside, but its investment thesis is not getting weaker, yet there are some guys who are ONLY able to invest small amounts, such as $10 per week and even though many of us would suggest to invest more aggressively, even $100 per week, guys have to invest within their means and also invest in such a way that their investment is sustainable.. perhaps similar to these pushups that we are doing.

If someone is brand new to bitcoin, then surely there is no problem being as aggressive as you are able to be, but it may well not be a good idea to take out a loan, unless for sure the guy has funds to service the loan and also to pay off the loan in case BTC does not end up going up during the period of the loan... whether that is a 6 year loan or some other period of time that might be within possible availabilities for anyone in terms of their debt worthiness, too.. which affects loan terms (including interest rate)..

---

Regarding pushups, I just started timing my pushups yesterday, and I found out that I am doing them slightly faster than I had thought that I was doing them, which is slightly faster than 1 second per pushup, so I am going to continue to monitor this speed per pushup situation and perhaps start to slow down a little bit.. yet I am going to establish my base first, and then maybe consciously start to slow them down so that the average per pushup is a little bit slower than my current rate..

I am glad that I am not doing them as fast as the guys in some of those speed pushup situations since I am not sure if those kinds of pushups are as valuable.. even though surely they serve a bit of a purpose.. including if a guy might be trying to break some kind of a speed record, but to me they do not look like full, normal and/or regular pushups. 

Another thing is that I feel that I am in a better position to monitor and to adjust my speed per pushup, since I have already been doing pushups for 52 days and I am kind of getting into a bit of a groove, and I am getting some pretty good senses of where I am at with the pushups and how they are progressing.

DCA does not help in timing the market, especially since it is the exact opposite, especially if DCA is exercised in a strict form, which means that you buy no matter what the BTC price on a regular basis that is based on your available cash rather than how much the BTC price happens to be.

So DCA allows an ability to invest into BTC in what ever level of whimpiness and/or aggressiveness that you want to employ while at the same time being better able to manage your personal cashflow because you are making investments into BTC in an incremental way rather than potentially stressing your finances with lump sum investing and/or other ways of trying to strategize your buys based on BTC price movements.


That is not true.  There are no guarantees in bitcoin, except that if you invest without using leverage than you are guaranteed to not lose any more than 100% of what you invest.
 

 This is also not a correct way of describing DCA.  DCA buys the same amount of BTC based on your own cashflow situation, so if the BTC price is down, you end up getting more BTC for the same amount of cash spent on it, and you would get less BTC if the BTC price is up.

If you are changing the amounts of BTC that you buy based on price, then you are employing some variation of buying on dips rather than DCA, and you can do whatever you want, but you should not be calling buying on dips DCA, since they are different, and sure you can combine them and create a hybrid system that you choose to follow, yet changing the amount that you buy based on price changes, is not a strict DCA approach... and probably the newest of people trying to establish an initial stake in bitcoin should not be overly occupied about their costs per BTC and/or trying to strategize dips, except maybe within some fairly strict guidelines in which they execute their weekly DCA no matter what within the week, even though they might try to buy dips within the week, yet at the same time recognizing that they are no longer employing a strict DCA approach that would just buy BTC regularly no matter the BTC price with whatever amount of dollars (or fiat) that you have authorized for that period based on your own cashflow considerations that again are not based on BTC prices.


Sure this part is true, except profits are not guaranteed... even though bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best, asymmetric bet available to people all around the world and to all income levels.. as long as you have some amount of a disposable income.

Seems that now we are back to the status quo ante, which means that will have to wait until later before skipping a thousand.... perhaps we might be able to reach that somewhere in the $70ks....

So we still have these possibilities:

$73,xxx

$74,xxx

$75,xxx

$76,xxx

$77,xxx

$78,xxx

$79,xxx

Almost good for its own game of luck, or maybe even a bet.. regarding if any of them (the $thousand ranges) might end up being skipped (and/or if so, which one(s)).. .

I am not going to claim to know, but it seems that we have decent odds of skipping one or more of them and never returning to it..  and so that could be something that I would be willing to bet on in terms of from my own point of view having greater than 50/50 odds of skipping one or more of them either in 2024 or 2025 or both... maybe such a bet would be a bit too complicated and would have to have time limits or a certain kind of clear description of its terms..

such as stating such a bet like this:

"within the year of 2024, the USD/BTC pair on Bitstamp BTC weighted price will reach at least into the $80ks and it will skip falling into one or more of the above $70k price points..."

I think such a bet would have close to, if not greater than 50% odds of playing out.. and if the odds are not as great as I believe them to be, then it would still be worthy of consideration in terms of a possible (and/or a funzie) bet.

The main condition for the bet to even go into effect seems to be that there would have to be at least one weighted trade of at least $80k in 2024, and then the bet would close in terms of my winning it until the end of 2024 or alternatively it could end up closing if all of the price ranges were to end up getting filled in 2024 that would cause me (or anyone else willing to enter such bet on my side) to lose such bet.

The thread that I pointed out, about sustainable withdrawal presumes that you have enough or more than enough BTC in order to start to employ it.

Or as an example, I show a hypothetical situation in which someone started out with 21 BTC in September 2022, and so then they started to cash out very slowly, and then by January or February 2023, they were able to cash out more aggressively, yet at that time, that hypothetical was using a 4% cashout rate.. .yet part of the point was that they already had a set amount of BTC in that budget (or account) that they were using as their basis.  Surely during the late 2022 period, BTC was running below the 200-WMA, yet in recent times, I have come to more confidence that a 10% cashout rate could be followed and still maintain a growing dollar value - yet the point still remains that a person has to build up a BTC stash that is high enough in order to justify beginning following such a sustained cashout system.

So, yeah it could take 10 to 20 to 30 years to build up a BTC stash that would then justify starting to employ some sort of sustainable withdrawal system as I outline in that thread and also provide a sustainable withdrawal tool, as well. ^{powered by bitmover}

So your issue about many people not having any discretionary income is from your own perspective, and sure maybe it is true that you do not have any discretionary income and you are not able to either increase your income or to cut your expenses any more than they are already cut, then if you do not have any discretionary income, then you cannot invest in anything... I have my doubts if that is necessarily true, yet sure you are the one who is in the better position to verify your own financial situation.


You seem to be a bit mixed up... especially in your seeming to overlap the ideas of DCA and buying on dips.

A strict DCA strategy does not care about prices, and just buys BTC no matter the BTC price while employing some kind of system to figure out how much disposable income is available and determining how much of the disposable income to use to buy bitcoin.  So someone could attempt to front load his investment into bitcoin, but if he has no lumpsum amount, it could take him 10-20 years to really build up a longer term investment into something like bitcoin, and sure he might be using DCA the whole time, or he might supplement with buying on dips and lump sum investing.  Frequently a good way to start is with DCA and maybe even do that for a whole cycle before  fucking around with buying on dips when we might hardly have any clues when or if dips might happen, how low they will go or how long they might last.  

Of course, you can supplement your DCA strategy with either buying on dips or lump sum investing, and so guys have to figure out their own individual factors (perhaps 9 of them) in order to determine how much BTC they want to have and how aggressive or whimpy that they want to be in terms of their ways of accumulating BTC.

Hopefully, when push comes to shove and some Coinbase clients request to withdraw their coins, Coinbase has as many BTC as they claim that they have.

Otherwise, we may well have even an additional pickle.. at least for the folks who think that they have bitcoin but they are not actually holding them in a place that is not controlled by a third party who might be a wee bit too loosey goosey in the way that they count actual and real coins.


I might not understand what is going on exactly, when they are likely creating systems to receive payments outside of bitcoin's onchain incentive systems and they are mining empty blocks at the same time.  I am not going to presume benevolence and/or innovativeness when they are likely trying to suck folks into paying them to process transactions through their own private means...

Call me an uninformed skeptic.

Fuck Marathon.   

 


Five lines.

You suck.


 

Well.. you might be making my point in a slightly different way.

Largely I am suggesting that we have had enough corrections along the way so that buy support is likely to be able to keep up even if we were to go up to $80k in a shore period of time (such as a week or so).. and even going up to $94k-ish.. might not be too fast as long as it takes 2-3 weeks to get there.. .. so the speed in which it goes up (sure as well as some of the context for why the BTC price is going up) will allow for buying support to catch up and to keep up.. so that it is less likely to correct as much when or if it does correct.


From my perspective, you are being way too fucking general, and there can be some value in analyzing the cycles and analyzing other factors besides the total package of bitcoin going from $0 to $70k in 15 years.. that information does not really tell us anything in regards to buying support being able to keep up or not.


Volatility is inevitable in an asset like this, both during the battle and while the greatest wealth transfer known to man is taking place.

For years, many of us have been hearing about Bitcoin becoming more stable and blah blah blah nonsense or that it is correlated to stocks or presuming BTC is a mature asset and various other lame bullshit theories. 

Of course, we experience periods of price consolidation and less volatility, and sometimes guys even get bored, and surely we have all kinds of entrants into the BTC market, and there are a lot of folks who still do not have much if any position in BTC, so they are going to b learning about, it and realizing that they don't have enough... so any of us who have been in BTC longer, will hopefully spent some amount of time attempting to front load our investment in order to front run the ongoing stream of newbies who are coming to this asset and still learning about it.

And you (WatChe) only have just over a full cycle in bitcoin (even though you have been registered on the forum longer than Saylor has been learning about and investing into BTC), so maybe you have some BTC that you were able to front run Saylor and MSTR.... which surely feels good, even though he (and his company) have way more bitcoin than a large number of forum members (OGs and otherwise) put together.. even though he acquired his coins at higher prices than many of us, he still has more coins.. .

I bet Saylor's personal BTC stash is at least 30k BTC (even though he last reported the acquisition of nearly 18k coins in mid-to-late 2020)... so between himself and MSTR, he has nearly 250k BTC... which is also how many coins Blackrock has.. even though we do not yet know the composition of their clients, yet apparently the ETF providers have to periodically file reports about the composition of their clients.

Even though there are likely going to be quite a few normies selling their coins to Saylor types and also to various Spot ETF clients, it still is likely going to take a while for them to get a lot of the BTC of the private holders, and surely much (if not most) of the value of BTC comes from the various ways to privately hold it.. so private BTC holders are going to continue to hold a lot of power and to benefit a lot from their bags being pumped, even though a lot of this bag pumping is going to cause a lot of newbies and no coiners and low coiners to delay in their own accumulation of bitcoin to their own detriment.. and many of the normie newbies, no coiners and low coiners are going to end up coming into bitcoin much later after some of these new BIG players have been spending a lot of time vacuuming up coins and continuing to drive up BTC prices to contribute to normie newbies erroneously thinking that maybe they should wait before buying BTC rather than buying BTC into what they believe to be a pump. but then the pump keeps going and going and going and going.. so don't be a dumb fuck (not referring to you specifically WatChe) and sell too many coins too soon, and hopefully each of us has been sufficiently accumulating enough coins so that we are somewhat ahead of the game, and if we are not, we just keep accumulating to the best of our ability. .which is still better than either waiting or coming in later down the road because you just heard about bitcoin.. which there are going to be a lot of those folks too over the coming 2-10 years...


I think that one of the interesting things about the ETFs is that they are likely composed of a good amount of a new type of buyer, and therefore new money coming into the bitcoin space since a decent number of the clients coming to BTC through ETFs would not have otherwise been ready, willing or able to come into BTC prior to having the ETFs as possible ways in.. and yeah of course, they don't hold the coins themselves, but those ETF providers likely have a pretty short window in which they have to make sure that they are properly and adequately collateralized with the real thing (namely our lil precious).   

Fair enough.

There's gotta be some lurkers, and maybe they just don't like us (or they do not have fun making comments about this ranking of the weighted average topic).. so they don't post anything.

I would surely like to see a wider variety of participation, yet even if not that many others post, I don't have any problem with you guys repeating your same lame jokes over and over..

hahahahahaha

Well.  Not only do you need an income source, you need income that exceeds your expenses, and you can only invest with the money that is excess of your expenses, and if you do not follow such guidelines, you are gambling rather than investing.

Yeah, sure it is possible to go through periods in which you do not have an income source, but in those cases, you need to have to have reserves that either come from prior income sources or from some other way that you had accumulated (and/or received) those kinds of reserves.. yet even if you happen to have reserves, you still have to figure out the parameters of you expenses in order to know how much of that you would be able to invest into bitcoin.

There is another kind of exception of someone who has pretty much already achieved fuck you status or close to fuck you status in some other asset, and those people would not necessarily need any other source of income, but they could transfer that value or some portion of that value into bitcoin and then be able to live off of the appreciation of the value of that income.. which surely I would suggest valuating the extent to which you have reached fuck you status by use of the 200-WMA rather than going off of BTC's spot price, in order that you can recognize and appreciate that you are not overly valuating your BTC - since the 200-WMA is a bottom price that does not bounce around as much as BTC's spot price (ideas I discuss in my sustainable withdrawal thread).


Why would stopping be a problem?  1) You mean stopping by selling your holdings or 2) stopping by discontinuing to add to your investment into BTC?

Probably you mean the first one.

Yeah, selling too much too soon is a potential problem, but people still may well profit from those kinds of decision, yet they profit less than they probably could have had profited by just sticking with their BTC investment.

Like in your case, you had bought bitcoin earlier and you did not stick with your plan and instead you sold everything and then you failed/refused to get back in.. so yeah, that was likely an example of your own short-sightedness and your likely ongoing failure/refusal to learn the right lessons from your earlier mistake.

Members of this forum can ONLY help you so much.  YOu have to figure out ways to help yourself by developing some kind of a reasonable/prudent plan that works for you so that you can continue to invest into bitcoin for then next 10 years or more.. and yeah, if you cannot get your shit together and figure out how to accomplish that, then you are the ONLY one who is going to be hurt by that .. perhaps you and your family.. but anyhow, 10 years down the road, no one else is going to give any shits if you failed/refused to buy bitcoin, even though you learned about bitcoin in these times but you still failed/refused to invest in it..


Exactly!!!  

The best thing for Negotiation or any guys who are similarly situated and feeling as if they are too poor to invest into bitcoin is that they pick an amount of money that they are not going to miss and just invest as much as they are able to without having to think about that money for more than 10 years.  They do not need to think about if it is profitable or not profitable or whatever, just put their $10 per week (or whatever they are able to) into bitcoin and come back to it 10 years or 15 years later and reassess if there is any value there.

Surely if they are buying really low amounts such as $10 per week, then yeah, they might have to wait for several months before removing the amounts from exchanges.. yet guys have to also consider various reasonable ways to manage their UTXOs too.. so if they are investing small amounts and maybe even infrequently, maybe they are going to need to wait for several months or even a year or more before moving the BTC to a private wallet, yet in the meantime it is going to be to their advantage to figure out how to store their BTC in private wallets rather than exchanges, especially if they are going to be investing into bitcoin with relatively small amounts for 10-15 year or more... but yeah no one is going to hold their hand or feel sorry for them if they end up being poor and/or without bitcoin 10-15 years down the road even though they may well already know enough about bitcoin in order to figure out and execute some kind of reasonable, meaningful and ongoing BTC accumulation strategy.


We are not really talking about selling here as a means to get out of bitcoin and into fiat.. why the fuck would any of us want to do that?  Frequently we have spent years and years and years accumulating the best asset known to man, then why would it make sense to sell it?  Unless we are merely talking about selling small amounts of it.. otherwise, seling it does not seem like a great plan..

You have heard that the exit plan is bitcoin, right?  The exit plan is not getting of of bitcoin and into some inferior asset/currency?  At least that does not make a lot of sense to me.

Maybe you need to explain a bit better what you mean a wee bit MOAR better, batang_bitcoin?  Why would any of us be selling? especially when the thread is about buying.. Of course, you would not be selling in order to buy back cheaper?  or would you?


Why do you feel some kind of need to use the term "cryptocurrency" in order to refer to BTC?

There is no need.

Fuck shitcoins.

Do you realize that the term cryptocurrency is either meaningless or it is largely used as a way to lump shitcoins in with bitcoin in order to create some kind of appearance that they are similar to bitcoin - so in the end, using such term might show that you don't really understand what bitcoin is, especially if you think that you need to use the term "cryptocurrency" in referring to it.

There may be ways to appropriately use the term "cryptocurrency" in order to refer to shitcoins or even to acknowledge that the term is used with various kinds of people who may or may not understand how bitcoin differs from shitcoins, but here we are in a bitcoin thread, so it really seems unnecessary to use such term to refer to bitcoin, unless you wanted to also say something about shitcoins, which really it seems that the remainder of your post was mostly attempting to talk about bitcoin, which seems to make it even more distracting that you felt some kind of need to refer to bitcoin as a "cryptocurrency."

Maybe you used the term "cryptocurrency" because you wanted to appear as if you were smart - but since you did not put such term into an appropriate context, the use of the term seems to have the opposite affect.. at least from my perspective.


Exactly..

There are quite likely going to be people (including both bitcoin newbies and also people who already own bitcoin) buying bitcoin at $100k, at $200k, at $500k, at $1 million, at $2 million and at various other prices in between and likely even higher prices, .. it is just a matter of the timeline regarding such purchases.. and sure it is not guaranteed, but it does not seem implausible to have bitcoin being sold in the relatively near future of 4-10 years or longer that fall into all of those mentioned prices.


That above quote surely is nothing that I said or that I would have said...   It is not written in my style..

In other words, when you are quoting members, you better verify that you properly quote them, otherwise it can be misleading and/or confusing regarding who said what.


I doubt that you are correct.

you are likely too preoccupied with whether you are in profits or not, and if you are investing 10 years or longer, then it is not going to matter very much in terms of when you bought as compared to that you bought and you got started as soon as possible and stuck with it.

You can employ the "wait" strategy, but I consider "the wait" strategy to be really fucking dumb - especially for a low coiner or a no coiner. .and especially in an asset like bitcoin.

There are a lot of dumbass low coiners and no coiners still waiting for BTC prices to drop at various price points, including as recently as waiting starting from September/October 2023 when BTC prices were in the $27k territory.. and that is not the only example of dumb fucks overly waiting and failing/refusing to act.. and so they are having fun staying poor because their waiting strategy did not work and likely put themselves in a worse situation rather than just buying at whatever price..

And do you even know what the fuck DCA is?

It is largely buying at any price, and employing such strategy for many years.. 4-10 years or longer, and frequently in traditional assets, people invest in assets their whole lives 30-40 years and they never end up getting to fuck you status; however, with bitcoin there are possibilities to accumulate bitcoin and to really make some kind of meaningful differences in the lives of regular people.. and waiting is not a good strategy.. in fact it is a dumb strategy, especially for low coiners and no coiners.. and especially because it takes a long time to build up any investment - including that bitcoin is likely amongst the best of assets known to mankind, and you still believe that waiting is a good strategy.. yeah right..    

Good luck with that level of dumbness.


Who cares?  How the fuck are you going to know when it is a bear market or a bull market, especially if you don't have any coins or you hardly have enough BTC to make any difference.

You are getting distracted by the fact that BTC prices have gone up a lot, and you are presuming that they are coming back down to these price areas..?

Yeah, maybe they will come back down and maybe they won't..   We might be in a position in which sub $70k coins are never seen again.. and these kinds of dynamics have happened several times in bitcoin.. and there is no reason to believe that they might not happen again..   

In other words, the ONLY way to prepare for UP is to have some coins.  Waiting does not prepare you for up... and furthermore, we have quite a bit of luck in bitcoin since there are several ways to be able to buy very small amounts on an ongoing basis and those kinds of opportunities are not present for a lot of other assets. and fuck shitcoins if you are trying to create some kind of justification for someone to fuck around with buying inferior assets merely because they can also buy shitcoin with small amounts of money.. but that would also be dumb.. and it would likely be even dumber than not buying bitcoin (which is already pretty high on the dumbness level).. and a lot of people engage in various kinds of dumb logic to figure out which shitcoins to buy and they fail/refuse to learn about the best asset known to mankind (which happens to be bitcoin), which seems to be on the same level of retardedness as your short-sighted and dumb "waiting" for a bear market strategy..


Fuck crypto.

We are talking about bitcoin here.


Again you are distracted, and I hope no one is listening to your likely lack of insight.  How long have you been buying BTC?    

maybe 2 years if we go by your forum registration date?  yeah, maybe you have enough BTC  or maybe you have more than enough because you front loaded your investment into BTC.. I don't know. ... but if you were not aggressive in the first couple of years, then probably even you better look in the mirror and figure out your own situation if you are assessing yourself to have enough or too many BTC when you probably should be continuing to stack BTC (for your own good).. but hey whatever, if you are waiting and refusing to stack BTC, then you are ONLY going to have yourself to blame if you are following your own dumb advice.

But the thing is that it frequently takes people 20-30 years or more to build an investment portfolio, and if you are recommending to wait then you are failing/refusing to appreciate a lot of aspects related to bitcoin, and I should not have to repeat myself, since I largely already stated it.. waiting is not a smart strategy.. unless the person already has a good amount of bitcoin and even if they have a decent amount of bitcoin, waiting also might not be a good strategy unless they clearly have reached a status of having had over accumulated.. which surely most of the people of the world are not even close to having enough bitcoin, whether they realize it or not....

The overwhelming majority of people do not have enough bitcoin, and we have rich fucks in the USA and others associated with the BTC spot ETFs sucking up a lot of the BTC, and they are likely going to end up driving the BTC price into the $100s of thousands and even into the $millions in a relatively short period of time, and your dumbass recommendation is that poor people should wait because maybe there might possibly be a bear market in 1 or 2 years?  

That is dumb if I ever heard dumb, and you have been participating in this thread so long and you seemed to have not learned shit.


You don't need to take any extra risk.. All you need to do is figure out your budget and figure out how much you can afford to invest, and if you don't have any money to invest, then you will just have to benefit indirectly from bitcoin rather than directly from it.. since the ONLY way to benefit directly from BTC's likely ongoing price appreciation is by getting some stake in it.. otherwise you are just sitting on the sidelines and wiating for dips that may or may not end up happening, and if you are waiting for a bear market, then you are even more retarded.

Right now we happen to be in the earlier stages of a bull market, and yeah sure there has already been more than 4x price appreciation since the $15,479 bottom in November 2022, yet the mere fact that the BTC price has gone up 4x in the last 17 months-ish does not mean that it is going to drop any time soon or that it is not going to do another 2x, 3,x, 5x, 10x from here. .including that it may well not drop back down to anywhere close to these current price levels, and how the fuck does a guy/gal prepare for those kinds of possibilities?  It surely is not going to be through waiting.

Waiting is about the worst advise to give to anyone, whether poor or rich, unless the person has way too many BTC already, and even with that kind of person, if you know the context of where we are at, how we got here and where we might be going, waiting might even be bad advice for the person who has way too many BTC, too.


That is correct.

We have a lot of dumbass people who got into bitcoin early and they are regretting because they were overly whimpy in their BTC accumulation, and largely they have no one to blame but themselves... and also there are some of the overly whimpy folks who still ended up doing quite well because they continued to accumulate BTC, but they just did it in a whimpy-ass kind of way... . On the other hands the ones who spent a lot of time waiting rather than buying BTC, those guys did even worse, and we see them whining on the forums quite frequently.. and they have no one to blame but themselves...

There is absolutely no evidence that bitcoin has a worse investment thesis now as compared to earlier times, even though the upside potential has been somewhat taken away, yet even with a smaller upside potential, bitcoin remains amongst the best investments currently known to man (if not the best).. so anyone poo-pooing the idea of bitcoin will likely have to come to it at a later date and when the prices are higher.. and they can cry themselves to sleep because they were too busy preparing for down, rather than up.

I am not sure if it is necessary to cross post, except for some reasons in terms of bringing up this topic in other threads, which I have done from time to time... and yeah, you could also include this thread with your daily CB recap as a kind of automated post (or a part of that daily post that you already do).  

I also believe that on a personal level, there are better ways to notify ourselves in regards to threads that we want to monitor, and one of those is to add the thread to our "watchlist,"  and the other is to set the thread to notify us with any new post.  

I do agree that there does not seem to be a lot of participation in this thread, and surely this thread should have way more broad appeal to members across the forum, especially since so many members seem to be concerned about BTC prices.  There may be some members who don't appreciate the significance of the thread, even though the explanation and even the title of the thread should be sufficient enough to describe the contents of the thread.

Ultimately, you do what you want, I am just giving my opinion on the topic, and I am also grateful that the contents of this thread are being presented so well (even with some extra bonus information), even if there are ONLY a few of us who are actively posting here.

Fair enough that really fit guys would not need 5 minutes between sets, yet you still have to figure out the extent that it would be feasible to achieve 500 pushups in 30 minutes, even from the perspective of the most fit of guys.. and I am thinking that not even 125 pushups per set would be possible for 4 sets in a row.... so what might look realistic to you?  Something like this:

1c) 100 PUs - 3 minutes - 3 minutes rest  - running total of 100 PUs and 6 minutes

2c) 100 PUs - 3 minutes - 3 minutes rest  - running total of 200 PUs and 12 minutes

3c) 100 PUs - 3 minutes - 3 minutes rest  - running total of 300 PUs and 18 minutes

4c) 100 PUs - 3 minutes - 3 minutes rest  - running total of 400 PUs and 24 minutes  

5c) 100 PUs - 3 minutes - 3 minutes rest  - running total of 500 PUs and 30 minutes  

This also seems a bit unrealistic to me to have sets of 100 pushups and only 3 minute recovery times and to be able to sustain 100 pushups for each set within 30 minutes.. sure there are likely some elite athletes who could attain such a feat, and so I suppose that we have to presume that AHOYBRAUSE has elite athletic capablities.


Of course, I am averaging it for the sake of being able to more easily calculate and not to overly confuse the matter.  There may be breaking points for guys and the amount of rest between sets could help to reset the breaking points, and there also could be a pyramid in which the middle of the sets has the best of performances in regards to quantity and quality.. but at the same time, there are likely differences in terms of recovery times and abilities to perform on subsequent sets if guys work towards complete exhaustion versus if the still retain some energy at the end of any particular sets.


Hopefully we are speaking from some level of personal experiences, yet at the same time, we might not necessarily need to experience all things in order to have some ideas regarding the extent to which some kinds of performance levels are within a range of normalness or within a range of elite athleticism, so it is difficult to just believe some random internet guy to be proclaiming that he is within a realm of elite athleticism when he is hardly giving any context, just bragging as if we are just supposed to automatically believe that he only bangs 10s.. and he always buys at the exact bottom and sells at the exact top because he is amazingly insightful... blah blah blah.  bullshit.


Exactly.. muscles work sometimes to the point of failure, and it takes a lot of conditioning to be able to do a lot of pushups in one session (set) and also it takes a lot of conditioning to have a really short recovery time... so I personally believe that my presumption of a 5 minute recovery time is way the fuck more realistic than suggesting something like a 3 minute recovery time, especially when so many pushups are being carried out in each set.

Yeah of course, there are going to be a few elite athletes that are able to accomplish various high levels of push-up performance, but they would be pretty damned rare to be able to do anything close to 500 pushups in 30 minutes, and surely if you have some seemingly realistic formula that is better than the one that I laid out, then let me know.

I personally consider that the style of push ups that this Guinness book of world records guy is doing to be insufficient

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZ9TDkMC7w4

He is not even going all the way down..

so it could be possible that a guy is able to do fast pushups that are not really full pushups and to get 500 in 30 minutes, but still I would consider the guy to either be of the elite athlete level or that he is not even doing full pushups but instead doing some kind of a technically acceptable push up that merely brings the elbows a 90° angle. and not bringing the chest to the floor.. I think that my pushups are full body that are nearly all the way down within 1-2" of the floor and also almost all the way up - not quite straight elbow but almost..

Less than a second for each pushup seems a bit too fast, too.. and even thought I don't agree with 2 seconds down and  2 seconds up, I do agree between 1-2 seconds per pushup to be acceptable. and I think that mine are probably slightly more than 1 second per pushup, and so probably it takes me around 45 seconds to do 35 pushups.. .. I might have to time myself one of these days in order to get a more accurate reading of what is my approximate average time per pushup within the context of 40-55 pushups.. which is towards the top of my range and where I tend to be at right now in the quantity of pushups in my sets...

And fuck the idea of doing so many pushups that the repetitiveness seems to contribute towards the kinds of repetition injuries and/or lack of recovery of the injuries like the guy in the video seems to be experiencing... I think that it is more important to maintain and improve ourselves rather than trying to reach records - even though surely there are some crazy nutjobs (including possibly guys participating in this thread (and on this forum) who have crazy nutjob tendencies.. so in that regard, to each his own    ).


That is why it seems to me that you are being unrealistic if you are expecting that 5 minutes is too long of a recuperation time.. but hey you can believe what you like.


Sure most of the time, but that also might have to do if you work to failure on the sets or if you stop short of working to failure, since if you stop short of working to failure, you may well be able to pyramid your results.. so the first set is 50, then 60, then 80, then 60, then 50.. .. which would be 300 pushups and maybe you could do these in 20 minutes, but you still would likely need to already be in pretty good shape to be able to accomplish something like that, especially in something like 20- minutes or even within 30 minutes.


Something like this seems to be what would be considered a deficit push-up.. Sure there could be some differences in how they are done, but having the blocks seems to be the basic idea in order to get a bit more range of motion.


We might have differences of opinion about these kinds of matters and some of the pushups might seem to be a bit too fast, and so I would not necessarily expect us to come to agreements about how pushups should be done or how they should be counted, but if a guy is describing how he does his pushups, then at least we might get some ideas regarding how difficult it might be to achieve the quantity that he is proclaiming to be doing.... especially if he might be proclaiming to be doing a quantity that seems somewhat unbelievable for normal people, then it probably is better to provide some kind of a context rather than just seeming to brag about the matter without specifying a wee bit moar better.


I tend to agree with you JiiBs, and it is probably better for even a fatty to be shooting for 8-10 pushups per set and 3 sets per day and if he is not able to do 8-10 pushups in one set, then he likely needs to modify the pushups in order that he is able to get a sufficient number of reps to actually make some kind of difference in terms of stress on his muscles (and body) in order to push the body in terms of building to be able to get to more strength and or endurance in the future..

Otherwise, with such low amounts, he may well be not doing enough to actually make any kind of difference... and yeah, in the end, each guy has to figure out these kinds of details for himself, and part of the reason that we are sharing ideas in a thread like this is to sometimes point out some seemingly better practices - including our opinions about better practices, and guys have the right to disagree, too.

It is not as hard as you are wanting to make it out to be.

Just get started.. $10 per week or whatever you can afford, and then look at the matter 10 years from now and see where you are at.

In other words, a guy like you needs a 10-20year investment plan, and maybe you should not even look at it in 10 years, just keep buying and at some point it might make sense for you to tweak your plan, even though we likely can presume that as soon as you go to tweak it you are going to end up fucking it up.. .. because you just cannot resist thinking about getting fiats as soon as possible... so yeah, you might not be eligible to buy bitcoin, because there is a need to be able to defer gratification... and DCA can help in that regard.  You just have to figure out what is a reasonable amount of money that you can put away weekly and not get tempted to dip into t for 10 years or longer.

More like a middle top.. not a top top.

You know that one of the problems of going there too quickly is......

I have already argued that it is not too likely that we could go to $80k to quickly.. because we keep having these baby corrections along the way... .. .. but yeah, sometimes we will see short periods of "overheatedness."   - even though, we are not there yet... so eat your hearts out... $40k not coming. and especially not $39,999.  I am starting to have my doubts about either $49,999 and also $54,999.. I am starting to think that it could be the case that none of them will be seen again.. . but hey, what do I know.

If we go to $94k by this week (or maybe even by next week), I might start to speculate that maybe such price moves is a bit too much.. and not quite sustainable in such a short period... $80k this week should be within reasonable levels of exuberance... whatever that means?


Yeah.. maybe you should, and that is why you are going to keep having fun staying poor.. you just cannot resist fiats.

 


Seems like it.

$80k?  This week, next week? sounds reasonable..

halving and 6 digits.. gosh. .. what would that be?  perhaps getting into the 50/50 territories?.. or maybe it is still ONLY in the 40% territory?

and then the rest of the year, I am still thinking that $120k to $180k is a kind of reasonable range for this year, but yeah. top, middle or bottom of the range?  I don't know.  I know that it is a pretty broad range, but what can be said.. it is not like anyone of us really knows the future... but $120k to $180k seems to be a good rethinking the matter stopping point.. or a kind of let's play around in this arena a bit before considering if we might want to go further UPpity.. which is largely seeing if buying support keeps up and then seeing how many coins might come available at those prices for the ETFs to vacuum up.

We are still in a pretty good place to be able to skip $70k.. but surely the price has to get up into the $71ks and the $72ks in order to bring up the final weighted traded volume... still early.. ONLY 3.5 hours have passed, so we have another 20.5 hours to play out and to hopefully bring the price up.. so that we can skip $70k, again.

50/50 odds, perhaps?  I might be overly hoping.  Let's see what happens.