A 'flash crash' right now would take us down to $100 - $110. To be honest, I'd set the buy wall at $110 and still be nervous of missing it. 50% is a fantasy -- and even if it did drop by 50%, that would still be a *gain of over 50% month-on-month*.

I'll just let that sink in for a moment... Makes one a little less jittery, right?

Look at the bid wall :-) There is your answer... $110 looks like an absolute minimum floor right now.

Nearly lunch time here :-)

I'm looking forward to the traditional Europe rush starting in a few hours :-)

The volumes aren't all that high right now though as far as I can see -- all relatively small trades running the price up a few dollars each way.

I have BTC on BTCChina -- I just thought about unloading a bunch of BTC there, but there is no depth. I'm looking in the order book... If I want to unload only 50 BTC, it would knock almost 10% off the price!

Nothing too much to get excited about here.

The volumes aren't all that high right now though as far as I can see -- all relatively small trades running the price up a few dollars each way.

Same on BTC China. I just thought about unloading a bunch of BTC there, but there is no depth. I'm looking in the order book... If I want to unload only 50 BTC, it would knock almost 10% off the price!

Nothing too much to get excited about here.

Yawn.

Heard this shit before.

I wonder how it feels to have sold under $100 3 days ago!

Good for arbitrage, yes.. but don't speculate on BTC based on China price; The China price tends to just follow the Gox price, only a bit higher. Usually when Gox falls, China does too. I wouldn't necessarily view it as a sign of significantly higher demand in China.

This always gets trotted out during gains. I've only been active on these forums for a few short weeks (since ~$30-odd), but it seems that it's like clockwork: After every big gain, people get nervous and start calling out irrational exuberance.

However, it seems the real irrationality is usually always on the side of the bears.

Not at all.

This is exactly the same behaviour as when we breached $50.

The % gains aren't all that odd -- same as before. Only now the numbers are bigger.

BTC China usually tracks Gox (but a few $ higher), but has got ahead of itself. Just because the absolute value on BTCChina is higher, it does not mean Gox is following it.

However, there is no evidence that this is a top. Lines prove nothing.

... just a normal Tuesday / Wednesday then!!

The BTCChina price tends to track Gox movement fairly reliably -- it has run-ups then holds waiting for Gox to catch up. The second Gox starts to fall, people sell on BTCChina.

It's easy to arbitrage the gap sometimes.

The graph on the homepage is a little gimped -- it swallows up sharp drops and rises.

Most of the money right now in China is speculative, predicated on global demand going up. But there is a huge potential market of murky money looking to escape China's tight regulatory controls. I think some of the run-ups like we're seeing now are due to that.

I'm working on my own Bitcoin project for China, hope to release it in a few days.

Me too, glad I'm all in again. The flash crash was a great opportunity.

That's a giant monolith of a bid wall... are we going through 100 on a Saturday???

A DDOS on Mt Gox and other exchanges commenced before the sell-off began. LTC:BTC began rising significantly a few hours before the sell-off began. There are a few other posts here about it -- someone else reported this on Twitter too. Seems quite plausible to me.

EDIT: Here you go: http://www.btcanalyst.com/2013/03/someone-did-something-p.html

Of course it may just be a coincidence, but it fits. It sounds a lot less ridiculous than saying "the price reached an arbitrary line drawn on my chart so it crashed". However, I do agree that the timing was perfect.

Don't know about you -- but I was quite jittery going into Thursday; I took some profits at $90 and missed out on the top, but then was able to re-buy in at the bottom. The market responded very well to what was clearly an organised assault by people speculating in LTC.

Before I thought we were starting to look shaky at $90; however given the jump back up, just prior to what was looking like a shaky long weekend with weak buying pressure, I think we look much stronger. The floor is much higher and stronger than expected, and I think we will now have a sideways correction at this level for a few days as confidence fully returns.

There was a DDoS attack on Mt Gox that coincided with the "crash".

I think the next time one of these silly forced sell-offs occurs, people will be ready and ignore it.

In fact it would be hilarious if we could somehow agree on a counterattack -- have a bunch of $ waiting, buy their cheap coins and push to a new high.