Sounds good. I like the every block 'pick 3' too.

a.3   allow till lock
b.3   everything, all the time
c.2   empty the pot
d.1   1BTC for now
e.1   every 1k

It's not that important, imo, but it should be written one way or the other. Just pick a way, it's all subject to change of course.

Oh, I noticed a tiny thing. [ home] [ bet] [ draw details] [ account ] [ log out ]

The spacing is off, missing the end space on home, bet, and draw details.

It's like a joke, but less funny.

I'd love to see some sample work. It'll be a while, but I hope to make some bitcoin sites eventually and I'll need logo help.

When the first ticket is bought the pot is 1 so matching all 3 wins you .5 matching the rightmost 2 gets you .25 and matching the right digit gets you .25.

To be accurate I should have reduced the odds on matching 1 and 2 because in order to win those prizes you have to also not match all 3.

(1/4096 * .5) + ((1/256 - 1/4096) * .25) + ((1/16 - 1/256) * .25) = .015686 is the expected value of the first ticket.

The formula for future tickets gets even more complicated because of the stair-stepping of dupes.

The number of tickets with the same rightmost digit as the Nth ticket (including that ticket) is floor(x/16 + 1)

Floor meaning the largest integer less than.

so the whole formula for the value of the Nth ticket is:

((1/4096) * (N/2)) / floor(N/4096 + 1) + ((1/256) * (N/4)) / (floor(N/256 + 1)) + ((1/16) *(N/4)) / (floor(N/16 + 1))

Oh, and all the .25s should be .24s if you consider the bounty.

My math is off because the winner doesn't get runner up prizes. This goes both ways though because when  someone else wins you'll get extra on all of your runner ups because he doesn't get a share. It changes things, but not the main idea.

Okay, I am not saying that you are guaranteed to profit buy buying all empty tickets. I am saying that it has positive expected value.

If I offer to flip a coin with you and pay you $10 and heads and take $1 from you on tails you will on average profit by $4.5 per flip. You will never actually win $4.5 in a flip, that is just the probability weighted average of the outcomes. The exact odds of having a losing streak of 100 flips, or of being down after 17 flips or whatever is not important here.

The "problem" with this is not that buying all the empties is profitable, it is that buying a few tickets in a mostly empty field is very unprofitable. The easiest way to fix this is to make sure all money is awarded each draw (or with a sudden death, which sounds fun). I know it kills the growing jackpot though, which would be fun to have.

Guys, I've been talking to the Zeitgeist people and they make a lot of sense. The machine is already there, and water and power should obviously be free so I don't think this Bitcoin thing is a good idea.

I'm well aware of the math involved in splitting pots, that does happen in poker.

Look, I can work out the numbers, but it's a pain so I simplified to a winner take all lottery.

When you buy the first ticket you have a (1/4096 * .5) + (1/256 * .25) + (1/16 * .25) = 0.016723633

When someone buys a second ticket it is worth (1/4096 * 1) + (1/256 * .5) + (1/16 * .5) = 0.033447266

Once there is one ticket on every number (1/4096 * 2048) + (1/256 * 1024)/16 + (1/16 * 1024)/256 = 1

Now if someone buys a duplicate that doesn't match your ticket in the rightmost digit:

(1/4096 * 2048.5) + (1/256 * 1024.25)/16 + (1/16 * 1024.25)/256 = 1.000244141

And now we have positive expected value.

Each ticket now has that much value, so the order doesn't matter. But people may still be wary of buying the first very low value tickets. I'm not saying they won't find other reasons to do it, but they are essentially donating value to future draws.

I absolutely agree.

A fun/connected/interesting group will tend to attract new people so we should try to be like that, but I think that is just a little noise compared to the fundamental value Bitcdoin brings.

IOW, even if you all were super douchebags, I'd still be here.

There is lots to think about here. Don't forget that showing number of dupes keeps operator from claiming there was a dupe on a winner when there wasn't. Of course you could release that after the lock.

Well, you can cancel as long as people can place, so you just have to be quick.

Obviously it isn't profitable every time. Is simply positive expected value. Sorry, I don't bother saying expected anymore since I play and post about poker all day. The variance all evens out and the expectation is all that remains after a few decades or whatever.

So, yes, you are still gambling, it's just that you can do it with an edge instead of paying an edge. It isn't some magic about covering all numbers either. Every ticket you buy is a better value than the last. The first ticket gets you 1/4096 of winning 1BTC the second is twice as good a value, it gets you a 1/4096 chance at winning 2BTC!

Sorry, I was not clear. You bet on uncovered numbers and profit from when people duplicate each other. If someone lands on you, you take your bet down.

Bet every uncovered number. Your profit comes from other peoples duplicates.

I've still got a few days to throw some more down ;-)

I just noticed you can buy 10kBTC on MtGox and only move the price 2%. Sick market.

These chickens, they had lots of sentimental value to me.

Totally.

A lottery with 1 person buying 1 ticket is boring no matter what.

I'm just saying that from the perspective of early ticket buyers it's a pretty terrible deal. For simplicity pretend it is winner take all. You buy a ticket for 1BTC that has a 1/4096 chance of getting you like 1 or 20 or 100 or even 1000BTC, it's not anywhere near even money. Now this just means that money will probably roll over making future draws more attractive. As long as you have an ample supply of people buying when it's a terrible deal, there's no problem because once they get it started it turns out not to be a bad deal. I'm just mentioning the possibility of everyone saying, "eh, I'll wait to see if this is going to get big at all". Now with the ability to unbuy tickets like you have it is less of a commitment so maybe people will say "I'll grab some numbers now and just cancel if it seems too small" then other people see it is growing and 'ta-da' we have a good pot.

These are just some thoughts, all that really matters is what people actually like. And that is hard for me to guess.

Thanks for the 150, I'm totally going to win it. :-)

I guess in my excitement I didn't ever worry about how bad of a deal buying the first tickets is. When there is no pot you are essentially buying a small chance of getting your money back or less. That's fine right now when we buy tickets out of novelty and lack of alternatives, but it will wear off. This leads me to think we need to return all or almost all of the money to users each time. Maybe hold back ~5% each time and let that accumulate or something.

So until I change my mind again (coming soon) I'm in the "pay it all out" camp. This should still cause pots to grow over time since winners will throw back in, and stories of great bit-riches will get spread around.