So which distribution do you use to approximate rpietila? The Oct.26 one looks a bit Gaussian-skewed, while the Oct.22 seems very much like Pareto.
I guess the number of BTC0-0.1 people should be much larger, they are just not conspicuous enough.
Imo gaussian is more realistic because it conforms to the distribution found among people investing in silver (Silvervault). The previous distribution has an unrealistic number of small BTC0-0.1 users, not really found anywhere when you search for them. Such amount is so small that you would have just forgot about it (or sold it if you had access to markets). Many claim that bitcoin users number in 1-2 millions. It does not seem that way to me; number of addresses used is in that ballpark, but an average/heavy user would have dozens of addresses, and even webwallets have more addresses than users. |
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62/38 is actually conservative, considering that (in Mt.Gox) any random week has in 64% probability been positive, only 36% negative.
Serious stuff...
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OP edited. Will edit the (*)-section soon!  |
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Seriously though, what do you think would happen to most of these slips of paper?
I recall working at a hotel reception and receiving a 5-USD-bill as a tip from an american tourist. Well, you can't spend Dollars where I live, and exchanging just 5 bucks is just not worth the hassle. I just left it sitting there in the cash register.
Now, that was with 5 Dollars, a well-known currency and all.
If somebody had given me something like "internet hacker money" on a printout from his personal inkjet printer... well, there's always that basket beneath my table...
Haha.. let's see. There was a Bitcoin conference in a certain hotel in Finland last May. We gave out about BTC5 as tips in denominations ranging from 10m BTC to 500m BTC. Printed in the bills was a website and there was a date and time how to redeem it (in the same hotel). Nobody came to redeem them  I decided to give the people a second chance when bitcoin is 10 times higher, and third when it is 100 times and so on.. |
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I just clicked "buy all" because end of banking holiday and huge public interest and other fundamentals. Not a huge amount by any standards because I'm close to all in most of the time anyway.
Haha...... $204.18 per coin is so INSANELY UNDERVALUED that you buy ALL-IN in the beginning of the week, LMAO There is literally no reason for the price to hover at 204 for yet another week. Do you really think it will go down? I would give 62/38 that it will go up. Yeah, that is pretty strong.. |
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IntroductionSatoshi started to run Bitcoin software 3.1.2009. In the first weeks, the community of bitcoin users numbered only a handful. The first BTC/USD transaction was 5,000 bitcoins for $5, ($0.000,001/m BTC). All the bitcoins of the world were valued at $100 at those prices. Currently bitcoin is well established in several exchanges with large daily trading volumes. The exchange rate is now about $1/m BTC, and all the bitcoins are valued at $13 billion. Bitcoin is the first thing in the history of the world whose value has appreciated this much (a millionfold) this quickly (less than 5 years).
This is making many ask the question - What is this phenomenon called Bitcoin?About rpietila
I have a long-term interest in Economics and it was also my major in Aalto University (formerly Helsinki University of Technology). This has led me to pursue a career of "private finance". I was previously interested in silver as the lynchpin of the global monetary economy. I am Founder and Partner in several investment silver dealerships. I had known about Bitcoin in 2010 and we had arranged debates in our investment club, whether it was a viable monetary system already that winter 2010-11. I bought in only after the 2011 bear trap. I started to actively solicit Bitcoin and organize related events in late 2012. In February 6, 2013 I began to fully embrace Bitcoin and turned my back on silver. That day I sent a letter to all my clients, subscribers and later also posted it in my blog, somewhat ashamed of the slow progress of silver, and also of the (seemingly) late decision to quit it in favor of bitcoins. In the letter I issued the strongest possible buy recommendation for bitcoin. (translation mine)I (still) recommend each and every one to invest at least a small sum in bitcoins. I also recommend that all familiarize themselves with bitcoin [sic]. Even though typically it is more prudent to familiarize yourself with the investment first, and only then invest, bitcoin's value appreciation has been so rapid (15% monthly during the last 1.5 years) that even the reverse order could be taken. This only if you pretend to not find enough time at your disposal, to familiarize yourself with this fascinating invention, which has already revolutionized the international micropayments remittance industry and may in the future be a paradigm shift to the monetary system as a whole.
/—-****—-
I am rather proud of the millions of euros that my clients have prospered by investing in silver. One good piece of advice is better than any number of bad. Now, I believe that an investment comparable to silver has been invented. Although the risks are high (bitcoin can go to zero, like euros or dollars, unlike silver or gold), the value appreciation potential is staggering.
Risto Pietilä 6.2.2013
Since writing that and investing an increasing percentage of my and the companies' portfolio into bitcoin, I have become a Bitcoin multimillionaire. I live in Helsinki with my wife and daugher. I have recently purchased a castle to act as a Bitcoin Retreat Center. Bitcoin Economics Resources
Apart from the Beginners' Introduction and the FAQ, the other resources are my primers and forum contribution to the bitcoin knowledge base: Introduction to BitcoinBitcoin FAQHow bitcoins are distributed among holders of different sizeBitcoin's price trend 2009-2013The TOP-500 Bitcoin wealthiest (not reliable, not updated)"SSS" (Bitcoin Savings Plan)What is the value of a bitcoin (EV method)rpietila Wall Observer (chat thread)
Happened in previous episode of rpietila public diary 12.4.2013-18.6.2013- rpietila explaining how he makes money with bitcoin - Deduces bitcoin's long term target price of $300/mBTC- Talking about Real Bills Doctrine - Sent BTC13.37 to nkspace, an unknown forum troll - Organized an international Bitcoin Summit in Finnish country hotel - Developed concepts of Bitcoin Supernode System and Bitcoin Dealer Network Association- Closed down due to declining health in anticipation of $1.400/m BTCHappened in this thread- Noticing that Bitcoin is designed such (declining mining rewards) that it will likely revert to corporate control starting in 2033 - Design proposal of a CPU-mineable altcoin with ever-increasing monetary base - This discussion is tied with the Bitcoin's price trend, which will go to over a million $/BTC in its peak, which is probably 18-48 months from now- Typhoon hit the Philippines, and we are organising the (possibly) first ever P2P cryptocurrency aid effort (lots of PICS) - The second Bitcoin crash of 2013 is underway - The thread is closed Current all-purpose thread
If you want to follow my stream (all comments, most of which are quite situational). I use m BTC whenever practical. If I have time, I actively moderate the threads for - bad behavior - negative posts - noncontent - repetition, including "rpietila is k1ng", "+1" - off topic. In some threads, most of the content gets deleted after a time, because the threads are preserved for newcomers to be read in entirety.
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I just clicked "buy all" because end of banking holiday and huge public interest and other fundamentals. Not a huge amount by any standards because I'm close to all in most of the time anyway.
Haha...... $204.18 per coin is so INSANELY UNDERVALUED that you buy ALL-IN in the beginning of the week, LMAO |
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Flattening out?
I will stick to just one trendline, thank you As outlined in the OP, there are myriads of other methods in drawing trendlines that differ in the following main points from mine: - Daily exchange data used / this uses monthly volume weighted - Starting 7/2010 when Gox opened / this starts 1/2009 when Bitcoin started - Trend drawn by hand / this trend drawn using least squares method. |
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We are behind the trend currently. I expect the next overshoot to consummate early next year with at least $1,500 top. |
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disclosure: I might own some NEOBEE shares
Disclosure: at times, I might own the World. Do your own due diligence before investing. |
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OP updated with chart and methodology!
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Recaptcha
How about pay-per-post? Interesting idea but that defeats OP's point about anonymity if your paying per post, unless you meant the Captchas generate revenue using an ad system. If you send from some webwallet or mixeraddress, it is anonymous enough.. |
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Recaptcha
How about pay-per-post? |
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We are going down to $150 soon. The end is nigh
Imagine hearing that a year ago. We would be so thrilled :-).  At $10 that would have sounded like this sounds now: We are going down to $3000 soon. The end is nigh
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You didn't follow up... I won back and invested in JD, made more profit. Now what I made from JD is more than 16K, you still think that's beautiful ?
If you have more than 30k BTC total, I can update it to the list. What if coins are 'invested' in the Just-Dice bankroll? He no longer "holds" those coins - they're physically held in the JD cold wallet. Although he can request to withdraw them with a few hours' notice. If you're not going to count MP's holdings because he has shares not actual Bitcoins, where do you draw the line? The extremist stance is that whoever holds the keys, has the coins, and that bitcoins are not subject to a legal definition of ownership. This is not very practical or mature (imho). Everyone can imagine the problems if we actually thought this way. At the very minimum bitcoins need to be subject to ownership, which makes custodial holdings count. Instead of Mark having all the balances of Mt.Gox customers, the customers own them, but they have a counterparty risk due to being commingled and given to Mt.Gox custody. Counterparty risk is bad, but having your bitcoins in your own possession is not risk-free either. Mt.Gox example counts as bitcoins, since the custodial agreement does not give Mt.Gox the right to sell the coins. A different matter would be to give a bitcoin loan to some companies that get rid of the coins when building their business (like ASIC manufacturers). That would not count as bitcoins, since the bitcoins are sold and would become double-counted. An intermediate case is Just Dice, where the custodial agreement does not give the site any liberty to meddle with bitcoins, only the balance changes according to well-defined rules. Also the balance can be withdrawn at the lender's request, so it is more like a deposit, not a loan. I would classify this with Mt.Gox. MPOE-PR raised the issue of having bitcoin-businesses. The stocks in bitcoin businesses are not bitcoins. This much is clear. But the businesses themselves are either incorporated or unincorporated Persons, and most likely hold bitcoins as their assets. In my opinion, the bitcoins owned by corporations should be prorated to their owners. MPEx famously does not have bitcoins in its balance sheet, so it counts as zero in MP total bitcoins. I, on the other hand, control a 60% stake in Silvervault, which owns about BTC2,000. In this method, BTC1,200 is credited to my total, regardless of the valuation of Silvervault or whether the stock is liquid or not. If a company has lots of coins, but ownership is very dispersed so that no owner would make it to the Fortune 500, the company may remain "whole". Anything to question/add? |
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Remember, even if there were no large holders, only 22 million people could own 1 full bitcoin
In the end it will be worth an unfathomable amount or nothing
, where "nothing" means "0 <= X < $10,000" per BTC. |
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If we were talking about penetration, the above would hold. But now we are talking about price, and very likely the price will overshoot before finding a long-term realistic value. This has happened before with Internet stocks - userbases have grown steadily but price has behaved erratically, first growing really quickly, overshooting, collapsing, and finding stability.
Why would the new world currency "find stability"? Either the powers that be decide to let bitcoin live and take over which will lead to infinite $/Ƀ or they destroy it which leads to 0$/Ƀ. I see little in between so I also disagree with the trend flattening out at some level. Bitcoin gains utility with every business that accepts it and as soon as I can use Bitcoin for everything, I will just close my bank account and say goodbye to fiat. Why would anybody stay with fiat if bitcoin gains ultimate trust with a large percentage of the global economy? Stability against the USD? Of course not, since the latter will die. Stability means that wages and prices are denominated in XBT and do not fluctuate so much. (I have always had the implicit assumption in my theories that "USD" means "2013USD" so as to only account for the bitcoin's rise, and not the USD's demise.) |
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One possibility would be to slash the price to BTC5, so that everyone who wants can be donators, and refund the previous holders the difference.
Does not compute: "everyone who wants can be donators" & " BTC5" That's still a lot of money for most. Those that complain about the Donator status being too pricey usually want it for next to free. On the other hand, they want it as a status symbol. Also does not compute  Too bad  |
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This is an excellent analysis; however there some points I wish to make: 1) The data for the BTC/USD exchange rate for 2009, and early 2010. I have managed to research this and found data for November / December 2009 and posted the results in this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308567.msg3309071#msg3309071 The valuation of .005 BTC /USD is way to high. The values ranged from 0.000614866 to 0.00130719 BTC/USD. Also the "pizza valuation" would place the BTC/USD rate at around 0.0028 in May 2010. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0. The net result of this is to significantly underestimate the current trend and future value. I am aware of that pricelist, but I discarded it because it is purely theoretical - no actual trade has occurred at those prices (afaik). I have based my estimate on the following nuggests of information that I consider reliable: - I heard that "Theymos has purchased bitcoins at an all-time Bitcoin-OTC low of 0.003" - I heard that the pizza incident (at about ~0.0025) was for a significantly cheaper price than commonly prevailing, to induce someone to make the effort - The Norwegian guy bought BTC5,000 for $27 (0.0054) - The price 10-doubled when Mt.Gox opened (to 0.08, i.e. from 0.008) Since I do not have a reliable OTC price history at my disposal, I estimated the whole time to be a flat 0.005. But if someone wants to add to the information, please do! 2) The exponential model works well only when the market penetration is very low say below 5% since it neglects the probability of a newbie attempting to introduce Bticoin to a veteran. Based upon the value of the world M1 money supply approximately 20 trillion USD and the world gold supply approximately 8.2 trillion USD I would say this model will start to break down between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC/USD.
If we were talking about penetration, the above would hold. But now we are talking about price, and very likely the price will overshoot before finding a long-term realistic value. This has happened before with Internet stocks - userbases have grown steadily but price has behaved erratically, first growing really quickly, overshooting, collapsing, and finding stability. |
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Let's see if the Finnish machine has a similar feature implemented.. it is launched next wed. |
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