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Nice call, but it looks like the event was caused by an attempted "attack" selloff combined with a DDoS of the exchanges -- they may have timed it well as we were nearing the top of the "channel"... but ultimately it was not something that was or could have been predicted by charts.
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Looks like the drop was planned, together with an attempted DDoS of Gox (and other exchanges).
The way BitcoinTip is behaving, wouldn't surprise me if he was in on it. I hope Gox track him down and press charges if so. Nothing more annoying than script kiddie trolls on a power trip.
Anyway, that said; I made a bit of cash of the bounce.... but really, everyone should just ignore this shit.
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Wednesday 3 April.... 2013.
High $110.
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ElectricMucus: build a better site then.
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I am no bear, but I paused... ...and decided that this is big. So far the biggest I have seen is a United Nations organisation taking payment in bitcoin. We are just waiting for a full-scale acceptance by the taxman, then it is pretty much done. Agree, very surprised to see a local government with this kind of foresight. I think this announcement should generate quite a bit of excitement -- and rightly so, if other civil services decide to take advantage too. |
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Hey Crazy -- if you really are on board with BitCoin, don't deride it's successes. You and I both know that WordPress and Reddit aren't "lowly freemium services". If you know anything about the Internet, you know that right now freemium and microtransactions are the business model du jour -- many big established players want a piece of the microtransaction market. WordPress is no minnow.
Yes, it could be a speculative bubble -- yes it could be unwise for some people to overextend themselves on it. But do we need to read this shit? It's like the sober geeky kid crashing a bong party with leaflets on lung cancer and schizophrenia. No-one wants to hear it.
As far as I can see, most in here are sober investors with big sums of money on the table. You can be sure that they are asking these same questions themselves every day.
I'm not deriding the successes, I just don't believe they command $100 valuation, or even $50. Probably closer to $35 or $40. But that's an opinion so take it for what it is. Regarding your latter points, sorry to crash the circle jerk. LOL As I said in the other thread though -- it is quite reasonable to speculate on the future value of a commodity, not the current value. |
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That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.
You owe me a new monitor and can of soda. If you think balancing risk over time is hilarious, you might want to quit dispensing advice in the speculation forum. I think there's a risk of a correction over the long weekend, and I plan to buy back in at the bottom -- or at a marginally higher price if not. Either way, a bit of sideways movement will be good for the market. |
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Hah, just wait a few years to see who is really crazy around here!  I have been waiting a few years, and will continue to wait many many more years. Realize that it took over 2 years to get a few lowly internet freemium services to even consider BTC as a legitimate form of money. You're expecting what in a "few years" (and define "few")? See I'm in it for the long haul, but I'm not about to lose my value over inane speculative bubbles. You just got here, and seem to already believe this is a get rich quick scheme. You're part of the speculative bubble. Just don't get caught at the top. Hey Crazy -- if you really are on board with BitCoin, don't deride it's successes. You and I both know that WordPress and Reddit aren't "lowly freemium services". If you know anything about the Internet, you know that right now freemium and microtransactions are the business model du jour -- many big established players want a piece of the microtransaction market. WordPress is no minnow. Yes, it could be a speculative bubble -- yes it could be unwise for some people to overextend themselves on it. But do we need to read this shit? It's like the sober geeky kid crashing a bong party with leaflets on lung cancer and schizophrenia. No-one wants to hear it. As far as I can see, most in here are sober investors with big sums of money on the table. You can be sure that they are asking these same questions themselves every day. |
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BTW, while I can't fault your conclusion: "no-one knows", I think it can be disengenuous to compare graphs of the crash with today's situation. They are only similar on the surface ("they are kindof the same shape").
However the Bitcoin ecosystem is in a totally different state of development now. I am NOT saying that BTC is immune to another crash, but that crashes are caused by specific sets of circumstances. Those circumstances aren't to do with graph shapes.
That said, I did reduce my exposure by about 50%; but that's more just to get through the weekend... long term I'm pretty bullish.
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Right but valuation should not be determined by hype, which is happening at the moment. People coming into the fold now are buying into hype not value. Do you really believe they've taken in the landscape of the bitcoin community? Do they realize it has very limited utility? No, they don't. They're speculating that they're getting in on the ground floor of something massive that's going to take hold within a very near future (in their eyes). To me, and the utility BTC serves (for me), it's not even close to worth $100. How could it? I lease servers and buy domains and only because it affords a degree of anonymity. What is someone going to do with it that isn't involved in the tech community? Nothing.
I agree 100%. Things will be different in 2 years, but it's not ready now. Speculating in the future utility of a commodity isn't as mad as it sounds -- quite the norm in fact. Not much point speculating after the fact. Of course it fills a nice for online services now; but people said that at the launch of PayPal, and now it is near ubiquitous. I believe Bitcoin has much wider potential utility than PayPal. |
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I wonder whats going to happen upcoming weekend.
Get your fiat money loaded in your exchange folks.
Cheaps coins are with us within a couple of days.
I'm with you -- will be redoubling Sat or Sun. |
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BTC exchange is down in CHina... looks like a DDOS to me :-(
On the plus side, when it opens up, there's going to be a flash crash upwards.... hope I can get in :-)
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Someone showed me this image earlier, which was not made for the sake of Bitcoin but to descibe bubbles in general: When I saw it I LOL'd... you would think it was made to exactly describe today's "Bitcoin mania", but JP Rodrigue designed it in 2008 (before Bitcoin was even born) to describe the life-cycle of typical financial bubbles. What was probably the most amusing is how he labeled the peak "New Paradigm"; ironically, people here are talking about the "new paradigm" and "reorganization of society" and other [excessively] premature characterizations of bitcoin.Good luck, everyone!  You can keep lolling, but the people on this forum were probably talking about the reorganisation of society when bitcoin was still <$1. ^ This. Go to the speculation forum and click on page 72. Look at the bear posts. Is anything new here? |
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Thanks for propose and information about text errors but we alredy found person who corrected it (i hope he corrected it right)
Better, but there are still a few errors -- for example, "lack off stability", "Free for job", etc. That's just on the front page, but there are more. There are some clearly non-native expressions used throughout. Hope this helps. |
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My bet is we'll reach $100 (@mtgox) today or next tue/wed. The run has been exciting. After $100 is reached I'd give odds: 20% for crash @$30, 40% for crash @$50, 40% for continuous rising.
I'd say the floor now is closer to $80; perhaps $70. |
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A bit of a horizontal run will actually do us wonders. The crackpot bears with their "zoomed out chart, therefore crash", will look a bit silly if we go sideways for a few days.
Here! Is this zoomed in enough for a Butt BitPirate? Sorry man, Freudian slip  I tried for a one tick chart, but they don't offer it. I see what you mean though... $1,000,000 here we come. How could thousands of traders been so wrong for so many years  There you go. Revolution in charting right there :-) |
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This would be interesting to graph. blockchain.info does something similar: speculation (money flows to exchanges) as a ratio to overall bitcoin money flows. The good news is, that ratio seems to be decreasing since late last year :-) https://blockchain.info/charts/tx-trade-ratio |
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... wishing I was all in again right about now :-)
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Awesome, wish I was all in -- as usual
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