Just another crash discussion

[yokosan]

Lets look at some charts.

The first chart is going to be a 2 month chart with a 12 hour time period that shows the rise and fall of the '11 crash.

The second chart is going to be the last 2 months with a 12 hour time period.



The million Bitcoin question is: Are we in a speculative bubble?

Now for some possible answers.

We are in a bubble

Look at the fucking graphs. You have got to admit they look very similar.

Dragonfly doji, indecision forming... a storm is brewing.

No, we are not in a bubble

There is nowhere near as much uncertainty about the price this time. It's a lot more stable. Also the user base is much stronger now. More services than ever are using Bitcoin.

The real answer

Who knows.



Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

[Crazy]

I came here looking for answers and you give me philosophy. Damn you!

[Dargo]

What does that intersection mean? Might be a bubble & not a bubble & at peak of bubble = ?

[chiropteran]

What does that intersection mean? Might be a bubble & not a bubble & at peak of bubble = ?

\

Clearly it means the price will crash because we are in a bubble but then it's going to immediately recover because we aren't in a bubble and then it's just going to flat-line because maybe it is a bubble.

[13Charlie]

I'm hoping it's a bubble. Lower price = Less new people interested in mining.

[Crazy]

I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a bubble. Nothing new has occurred since $40-50, not a thing. Except, of course, hype and media attention. But that's about as meaningful as a fart in the wind.

Which I guess is relative depending on whether you're upwind or downwind.

[yokosan]

I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a bubble. Nothing new has occurred since $40-50, not a thing. Except, of course, hype and media attention. But that's about as meaningful as a fart in the wind.

Which I guess is relative depending on whether you're upwind or downwind.

There is one other thing.

If people have decided that they may as well put their savings in Bitcoin rather than have it rotting in a shitty low interest bank account doing nothing, that could be quite significant.

[Crazy]

They might have decided to do that seeing a stable valuation that reflected a progressively growing ecosystem (slow growing, mind you). This, however, is only speculation, and would drive away anyone with common sense. Anyone that would put their savings in BTC after watching what has happened over the last few months, is clearly a fool and has no awareness of risk. And this is probably the most unfortunate thing, because after this move corrects, and it will, confidence in BTC will be hit harder than 2011. For someone like me who hopes to see it gain a mainstream foothold, that's sad, because it's not even close to going mainstream yet.

[13Charlie]

I don't see how anyone can say this isn't a bubble. Nothing new has occurred since $40-50, not a thing. Except, of course, hype and media attention. But that's about as meaningful as a fart in the wind.

Which I guess is relative depending on whether you're upwind or downwind.

I disagree. "Hype and media attention" is significant. We are trying to get everybody on the planet involved in Bitcoin. Everyday more people that read about Bitcoin on CNNMoney and CNBC.
I know that people knowing about Bitcoin does not do anything for the price, but supply and demand drives prices and there is a great amount of demand right now.

Check out all of the notable national press sources in the Bitcoin press section.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=77.0

[Crazy]

Right but valuation should not be determined by hype, which is happening at the moment. People coming into the fold now are buying into hype not value. Do you really believe they've taken in the landscape of the bitcoin community? Do they realize it has very limited utility? No, they don't. They're speculating that they're getting in on the ground floor of something massive that's going to take hold within a very near future (in their eyes). To me, and the utility BTC serves (for me), it's not even close to worth $100. How could it? I lease servers and buy domains and only because it affords a degree of anonymity. What is someone going to do with it that isn't involved in the tech community? Nothing.

[13Charlie]

Right but valuation should not be determined by hype, which is happening at the moment. People coming into the fold now are buying into hype not value. Do you really believe they've taken in the landscape of the bitcoin community? Do they realize it has very limited utility? No, they don't. They're speculating that they're getting in on the ground floor of something massive that's going to take hold within a very near future (in their eyes). To me, and the utility BTC serves (for me), it's not even close to worth $100. How could it? I lease servers and buy domains and only because it affords a degree of anonymity. What is someone going to do with it that isn't involved in the tech community? Nothing.

You have an excellent point, but just because there is not much utility doesn't mean there's no value. You'll see.

FYI - I bought dinner and drinks last night for myself and 2 others at Whisky Dick's in Downtown Orlando.

[Crazy]

You just said there isn't much value in utility. You just said that, and then demonstrated the value you got through utility. What determines value if not utility, even if the utility is a store of value (confidence in stability, of which BTC has none)?

And I'd like to point out you probably paid more for that night out using BTC than had you used a local fiat currency (if not based on time spent converting and fees, but also because what you spent is probably worth more now than it was yesterday). There's no point to use BTC at niche locations over fiat at the moment, it's just novelty.

[yokosan]

Right but valuation should not be determined by hype, which is happening at the moment. People coming into the fold now are buying into hype not value. Do you really believe they've taken in the landscape of the bitcoin community? Do they realize it has very limited utility? No, they don't. They're speculating that they're getting in on the ground floor of something massive that's going to take hold within a very near future (in their eyes). To me, and the utility BTC serves (for me), it's not even close to worth $100. How could it? I lease servers and buy domains and only because it affords a degree of anonymity. What is someone going to do with it that isn't involved in the tech community? Nothing.

I agree 100%.

Things will be different in 2 years, but it's not ready now.

[Crazy]

2 years is optimistic in my opinion. I might have agreed prior to this bubble, but depending on how this plays out, it could set Bitcoin back a long time.

[13Charlie]

And I'd like to point out you probably paid more for that night out using BTC than had you used a local fiat currency (if not based on time spent converting and fees, but also because what you spent is probably worth more now than it was yesterday). There's no point to use BTC at niche locations over fiat at the moment, it's just novelty.

I paid $33 each for the Bitcoins that I spent last night at $89
That means I paid $16 for a $45 bar tab.

[Crazy]

I paid $33 each for the Bitcoins that I spent last night at $89
That means I paid $16 for a $45 bar tab.

Edit: Nevermind I see what you meant. You still paid $89 because it was worth $89. But today it's worth $94.

[BitPirate]

Right but valuation should not be determined by hype, which is happening at the moment. People coming into the fold now are buying into hype not value. Do you really believe they've taken in the landscape of the bitcoin community? Do they realize it has very limited utility? No, they don't. They're speculating that they're getting in on the ground floor of something massive that's going to take hold within a very near future (in their eyes). To me, and the utility BTC serves (for me), it's not even close to worth $100. How could it? I lease servers and buy domains and only because it affords a degree of anonymity. What is someone going to do with it that isn't involved in the tech community? Nothing.

I agree 100%.

Things will be different in 2 years, but it's not ready now.

Speculating in the future utility of a commodity isn't as mad as it sounds -- quite the norm in fact. Not much point speculating after the fact.

Of course it fills a nice for online services now; but people said that at the launch of PayPal, and now it is near ubiquitous. I believe Bitcoin has much wider potential utility than PayPal.

[yuvadm]

Just before crossing the $100 mark, I'm taking some coins off the table. Price levels are non trivial.

Thanks for the post, best of luck to those who remain all in.

[Crazy]

Speculating in the future utility of a commodity isn't as mad as it sounds -- quite the norm in fact. Not much point speculating after the fact.

Speculating in commodities is common, true. But stabilizing on a true value? That never occurs because of speculation.

[chrsjrcj]

Extra thoughts

If we are in a bubble and it were to crash right now, and follow the same pattern as the '11 crash. It would stop at around $50.

Interesting point. Definitely something to ponder.