But viewed that way, Just Dice gives you the chance at playing lottery style bets without the lottery commission taking half your money. Max payout is 990,000x in JD. If you want to buy 1000 million dollar lottery tickets for $1, then the overhead is about $500 at the lottery. On JD the overhead is $10, and all of it goes at the jackpot instead of wasting away on mini payouts.
The only problem with that is that the "jackpot" (ie. maximum win) at Just-Dice is only 0.5% of the bankroll. Currently the bankroll is around 50k BTC, and so the most you can win per roll is 250 BTC. At a little under $600 per coin that is worth a little less than $150,000 which doesn't go far when shared by a large group of workers pooling their stakes.
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I have received only 3 payments in 24 hours so I think getting back my principal now seems less of a reality unless the Admin comes here and let's us know what is happening. I invested half a btc.. I just hope I can get my money back at least.
So you deposited to a Ponzi and lost your coins? If only someone posted a warning in the thread! Ffs. ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) You are very stubborn it borders on stupidity p.s. This is the guy who gave us negative trust, based on his "beliefs" He had no business with us whatsoever. Do you have any kind of response other than calling me names? Do you admit that you are running a Ponzi scheme? Do you admit that you use deposits from new investors to pay out old investors? Do you understand how it isn't possible to double every deposit? You can do better than just "this guy is stupid". And you're right. I don't have any business with you. I'm not *that* stupid. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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I don't think it's ponzi scheme. I have depositted from 4 different wallets and 2/4 of them are doing profit and third one getting really close. Overall winning about 0.7btc.
Do you even know what a Ponzi scheme is or how it works? The fact the you have doubled your money successfully with this scheme is evidence *towards* it being a Ponzi scheme, not against. The scheme will continue to pay out until required payments exceed new deposits, and then it will slow down and stop, leaving the most recent victims out of pocket.
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If he didn't have 25k to lose, he wouldn't have lost 25k though so it only represent a very fictive expected gain
Exactly. People sometimes look at the sequence of bets he made, and use a monte-carlo simulation to calculate the chance of him winning as much as he did, given the bets that he made. But I think that's kind of flawed - because if he hadn't won more than he lost early on, he wouldn't have been able to afford to even make that many bets. When we look at the actual site profit (19k) and compare it to 1% of the total amount wagered (53k) we see that actual profits fall 34k short of expectation. And so the natural question is "where is the missing 34k? who won 34k?". The answer is (roughly) "he won 10k, and failed to lose 25k (and we made up the extra 1k by being lucky)".
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Imagine I had flipped the coin 20 times just before, without you knowing, and got 20 heads in a row.
What if someone pre-flipped a coin until getting 20 heads in a row before a soccer match. Then they could easily win the toss that decides who gets to kick-off by calling tails! ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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Here's a list of the bets in the losing streak of length 16 from earlier today. He bet L L H H L L H H all the way through. Notice he would have won the 65.536 bet if he had made it and followed the same pattern: 2014-06-13 19:20:24 #1246171032: 0.001 BTC @ 45% lo:03.6353 profit: 0.0012
2014-06-13 19:20:26 #1246171083: 0.001 BTC @ 45% lo:79.3823 profit: -0.001 2014-06-13 19:20:27 #1246171139: 0.002 BTC @ 45% lo:85.5822 profit: -0.002 2014-06-13 19:20:29 #1246171195: 0.004 BTC @ 45% hi:06.3283 profit: -0.004 2014-06-13 19:20:30 #1246171244: 0.008 BTC @ 45% hi:32.1576 profit: -0.008 2014-06-13 19:20:32 #1246171297: 0.016 BTC @ 45% lo:45.8491 profit: -0.016 2014-06-13 19:20:33 #1246171348: 0.032 BTC @ 45% lo:79.6849 profit: -0.032 2014-06-13 19:20:35 #1246171395: 0.064 BTC @ 45% hi:10.5289 profit: -0.064 2014-06-13 19:20:36 #1246171448: 0.128 BTC @ 45% hi:40.4183 profit: -0.128 2014-06-13 19:20:38 #1246171495: 0.256 BTC @ 45% lo:70.8842 profit: -0.256 2014-06-13 19:20:40 #1246171547: 0.512 BTC @ 45% lo:71.0415 profit: -0.512 2014-06-13 19:20:41 #1246171593: 1.024 BTC @ 45% hi:38.4590 profit: -1.024 2014-06-13 19:20:43 #1246171638: 2.048 BTC @ 45% hi:26.5505 profit: -2.048 2014-06-13 19:20:44 #1246171691: 4.096 BTC @ 45% lo:91.5917 profit: -4.096 2014-06-13 19:20:46 #1246171745: 8.192 BTC @ 45% lo:83.1348 profit: -8.192 2014-06-13 19:20:47 #1246171791: 16.384 BTC @ 45% hi:35.0831 profit:-16.384 2014-06-13 19:20:49 #1246171843: 32.768 BTC @ 45% hi:07.9822 profit:-32.768
2014-06-13 19:50:03 #1246226691: 0.000001 BTC @ 45% lo:18.3393 profit:0.0000012
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Python is a great beginner language for example, it's like today's BASIC except that it's suitable for a lot more advanced programming.
I too recommend Python as a first language to learn. You might not end up using it, but it's a great way to get started. Turns out it's not for everyone however. Just this morning: 11:07:59 (760085) <x Sunset x> → (1) <@dooglus> Hey:) had a look at python, it's extremely hard to master it hehe
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If the numbers are off on either side, you can predict either a period of a higher amount of wins or losses, as the statistics HAVE TO balance out.
This is your fundamental misunderstanding. The statistics don't have to balance out in the way you think they do. They balance out, but in a way that gives you no predictive power. Here's why they really balance out: Suppose you flip a coin 10 times and it comes up heads only twice. 20% when it's meant to be 50% is way off. So you would say "keep playing and it has to balance out". Which is kind of true, but not for the reason you think. If I play a thousand more times, I expect to get about 500 heads and 500 tails. That brings the totals to 502 heads and 508 tails. Now 49.7% of the flips have been heads. Yay, it has "balanced out" from 20% heads to 49.7% heads even though we saw exactly 500 of both heads and tails. And that's why it "balances out". Not because you can predict an excess of tails in the coming rolls to balance it, but because you can predict that the 2 vs 8 weirdness you saw at the start will become insignificant over time as you flip more and more times.
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First, I love how martingale charts look. A perfect martingale will be a straight line with periodic drops of varying magnitude, where deeper drops are exponentially more rare.
Second, is there any way to calculate the probability of a bust on a martingale procession while taking into account the ever-increasing bankroll it provides?
I think it wouldn't be exactly straight, even connecting the peaks, because a: -1 -2 +4 and a -1 -2 -4 -8 -16 +32 both add 1 to the total bankroll, but take different numbers of steps to do so. I've seen people play like: -1 -3 -7 -15 -31 +63 before, which *does* lead to a perfect straight line, since the net gain is equal to the number of steps. The 6 numbers in the previous line sum to 6. It's equivalent to starting a new martingale of size 1 each bet: First bet, bet 1 (and lose) Second bet, bet 2 for the first martingale, and 1 for the new one you're starting: so 3 in total Third bet, bet 4 for the first, 2 for the 2nd and 1 for the new one: 7 in total ... Sixth bet: bet 32 for the 1st, 16 for the 2nd, ..., and 1 for the new one and this time we win, finishing off all 6 concurrent martingales at once. I think the first person I noticed playing this way was the owner of the BTC Guild poll, Eleuthria. It didn't work out too well for him in the end, and unfortunately I can't remember his account number to show the chart. Edit: I forgot your 2nd question. I'm sure there must be, but I don't know of it. The number of rolls you can withstand before busting only goes up in whole numbers. Most wins don't help you survive longer, because they don't give you enough extra to make a whole extra bet. So I'm not sure how to work out the probability. Other than that the probability of busting is 1 if you play long enough...
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ive noticed from doge dice sites the traffic has gone way down in the last or so .
have you noticed that foe doge-dice?
seems to me that doge is slowly dying out
I think the novelty is wearing off for sure. Also, most of the people who had large amounts of coins to lose have already lost them...
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I'm going to be investing in every betting site that allows investing and will be bloging daily on my results
Please be careful out there. A lot of people make clones of JD as short term scams. The plan seems to be: 1) take 'investment' 2) run away It's simple, but effective. Alternatively this works too: 1) take 'investment' 2) get 'hacked' Don't risk significant amounts with people you don't trust.
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Another in the anecdotal series of "Does martingale really works?" This time I present evidence for the "no, it bloody doesn't!" side of the argument: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FqAfQjKT.png&t=665&c=4IIFzcsNyMEHug) ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FbrRhf5r.png&t=665&c=iLZA4fwO8jmd7w) Edit2: here's how this loss fits in with the rest of the week's gains and losses so far on JD: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FgiMStFy.png&t=665&c=Wi68YpZw1aDMIw) Edit: here are the actual profits and losses. Note that he's playing at 45% chance to win, with a payout of 2.2x, so the positive profits are 20% higher than the corresponding negative ones (-0.01 and +0.012 for example): -0.01 -0.02 0.048 0.012 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.08 -0.16 -0.32 -0.64 1.536 0.012 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 0.012 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.08 -0.16 -0.32 -0.64 -1.28 -2.56 6.144 -0.1 -0.2 0.48 -0.1 0.24 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 -0.1 0.24 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 0.096 0.012 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 -0.01 0.024 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.012 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 -0.02 -0.04 -0.08 -0.16 0.384 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 0.12 -0.1 -0.2 0.48 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 0.024 0.012 0.012 0.012 -0.01 0.024 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 0.012 0.012 0.012 -0.01 -0.02 0.048 -0.1 0.24 0.12 0.12 0.12 -0.1 -0.2 0.48 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.96 -0.1 -0.2 0.48 0.12 -0.1 0.24 0.12 -0.1 0.24 0.00012 0.00012 -0.0001 -0.0002 -0.0004 -0.0008 -0.0016 -0.0032 -0.0064 -0.0128 0.03072 0.00012 -0.0001 -0.0002 0.00048 0.00012 0.00012 -0.0001 0.00024 0.00012 -0.0001 -0.0002 0.00048 -0.0001 0.00024 0.00012 0.00012 0.00012 -0.0001 -0.0002 0.00048 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.008 0.0192 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.008 0.0192 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.008 -0.016 0.0384 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 0.0096 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.008 -0.016 -0.032 0.0768 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 0.0096 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 0.0096 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 -0.001 0.0024 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 -0.1 0.24 -0.1 -0.2 0.48 0.12 -0.1 0.24 -0.1 0.24 0.12 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 1.92 -0.1 0.24 0.12 -0.1 -0.2 0.48 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -1.6 -3.2 7.68 0.12 0.12 0.12 -0.001 0.0024 0.0012 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 0.0024 -0.001 -0.002 0.0048 0.0012 0.0012 -0.001 -0.002 -0.004 -0.008 -0.016 -0.032 -0.064 -0.128 -0.256 -0.512 -1.024 -2.048 -4.096 -8.192 -16.384 -32.768
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They sold expedia for 100m$
I think they sold their travel company *to* expedia. To know the site profit without the Nawaka winnings you just add the Nakawa winnings to how much has been won, his final winnings are believed to be in an order of magnitude of 3000BTC if I remember correctly
I don't have exact numbers, because I don't know for sure which accounts were his. But I estimate that he risked 2.5 million BTC and won 10k BTC. The 2.5 million he risked should have netted the house 25k BTC. So the current profit is 35k BTC short of where it should be, due to the BTC he won (10k) and the BTC he should have lost and didn't (25k). That's probably where you're getting the '30000' number from.
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What's the average yearly profit (well, sort of, since JD is less than one year) on JD? I heard of 56% with coumpounded interests. Extrapolating from the last three months (14399 on March 1, 17550 on June 1), this would give 87% If we were ruling out the Nawaka incident, what would be the % of profit? Reason I ask is that I'd like to have BTC on JD to buy some other alt only with the profit. But for this to happen, I need to evaluate how many BTC I must invest to get generate the amount of profit I need to reach my target amount of alt to buy.
Thanks
Compounding isn't really relevant. Your profits are automatically added to your share of the bankroll, but so are everyone else's, so your share of the bankroll, and thus share of the profits remains constant. Over the last year everyone who was with us the whole year made about 43%, but that's in the past. In the future it could get better or worse.
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I doubt if this repository has much authority. If someone with say almost 100% hashing power would initiate a fork building on a block mined back in 2013, I don't see how a reversed bitcoin from jan. 8 is safer than a reversed one from Jan. 6...
A fork from before the most recent checkpoint isn't really a fork, since all the Bitcoin core clients won't even acknowledge it. That's what checkpoints are for. Most of the SPV Android clients presumably talk to Bitcoin core servers which won't see the fork either. And those that don't will be connecting to a server which will be fixed to know about the checkpoint if they don't already.
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So what your telling me is I need to divest and gamble all my coins away? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I would never suggest such a thing. But yes. That would be best. ![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
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If a 51% attack actually happens, could one lose bitcoins in cold storage or in hot wallet..
No!! A 51% could theoretically allow the attacker to double-spend coins that *they* already have. YOUR coins are safe. No one can sign transactions for your coins, unless you've given them your private keys. Not strictly true. If the attacker *ever* owned your coins in the past, they can start their attack from before they sold them and rewrite history from that point forward. Then you never bought them and your cold wallet is empty.
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i'm rooting for JD as i bet yes that just-dice will make 600BTC for the month of June
I'm surprised that bet was authorised. It's a little underspecified: Will Just-Dice.com investors make 600 BTC profit in the month of June JD investors made 821 BTC profit in april and 600 BTC profit in may Which timezone are you using to say when the months end? What are you using to determine the profit? Are you talking about profit before or after commission? You ought to clear all this up before things get messy! I guess if you could prove where you got the 821 and 600 numbers from then you could make a reasonable case for using the same source for June. Also, http://bitbet.us/ is the place to make such bets - they wouldn't let you get away with such a sloppy bet specification. Funny stuff. I don't understand the "Ashy Larry" joke. There's a lot of laughter when he first comes on screen (1:13), but what's funny? Is it because he's in his underwear? "Why do they call him Ashy Larry? Well there's your answer". I don't get it. We had a player/investor called Ashy Larry a while back, and I didn't get the reference until now. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) if anyone can tell me to pass just-dice freeroll 1yr Anniversary?
The game is for regulars on the site. Type /poker in the chat to see if your account qualifies. If so, you'll be given a unique invitation code. If I invest $ 0.1, I benefit every day, every week or every month?
Every split second. You get to share in the profit or loss made by every single bet. Too bad I don't play poker. Maybe some game related to JD would be more appropriate for birthday? May I suggest something like "first user to win 1% bet after the birthday timestamp wins ..." something?
I like the idea; why not a 5-6 different give aways : -First user to win 1% bet -First 10 real money bets of 0.1 or more after the birthday timestamp get 0.2BTC bonus ect. We've tried these kinds of "milestone" things before, and they never work out too well. You get a quick bust of activity, causing lots of lag, and then it's back to normal. Also you have to be careful designing them. If you say "first bet to win at 10%" it'll be someone betting 0 BTC. If you say "get your stake refunded", everyone bets at 98.99%. Etc. People are very smart at working out how best to benefit from incentives.
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we can all assume there will be 300 players so I think it's fair. LMK
It's by no means guaranteed to fill up. Over 2000 accounts qualify for a ticket, but many will have been discarded. I've no idea how players we'll get, but we have plenty already so I don't think I'll need to relax the qualifying criteria at all. (Leave the profit for me ) Hey, you already take loads from the commission anyway! ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) Win/win for you either way Oh, I was speaking as the investor who was trying to make the site look less attractive for other investors, to prevent himself getting diluted. Failed joke I guess. I wonder if I qualify, I don't have access to my account atm
Any way to know without connecting to my account?
If you can tell me your account number or username I can tell you if you qualify. Also, I made a post about how the site lost 100 BTC to a Martingale player last night over in the Martingale thread.
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