Well, yeah. I think he means he wants $10-$15m worth averaged in under some number. He noted that he thinks a $10-$15m stash now could end up be worth $100billion down the road. So 10000x return from current prices, which certainly makes him one of the uber-est of bulls (also note his $500k-$1m/btc possibility prediction).
That's only four more orders of magnitude higher than it is today. The price has been going up about an order of magnitude each year, so that is a perfectly reasonable estimate of where bitcoin prices might be several years down the road. Whaile at the same time being so high relative to the wealth on the planet that we can reasonably conclude it cannot go any higher, except in case of a bubble. Watch out for the great bitcoin bubble of 2016! Some people are actually going to lose by investing in bitcoins!!  |
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Of course they aren't affected, Gox users can't even fiat out and don't want to fiat in, when coins are cheaper elsewhere!
LOL |
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mah87 is so sad. Where did he get the BTC10 required to buy the donator tag??  |
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If something is valued in bitcoins, like MP's shareholdings, they don't count for the purposes of this thread.
It's true this should not count for this particular thread. His holdings are far from worthless (although the valuation based on market price isn't very accurate if you hold so much of the shares) and he has a big investment in Bitcoin, just not directly. I appreciated the transparency. Thanks!  This is all separate of how I (or any of you) feel about MP. I always have the feeling he likes to go out of his way NOT to be liked  I have begun to think that the valuation of S.MPOE is legit (and if we would have a Bitcoin-who-is-who-in-total-wealth list, it should be counted), but I think it is grossly overvalued, and I would not even consider buying at this price. Does anyone have a better estimate of MP's bitcoin stash? |
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You can realistically talk about bubble if it takes at least 5 years to get the money back after buying in at the top.
With bitcoin, this has been maximum 1.7 years, which is better than most stock.
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sell it all to make it count.
All the btc you mean? He means that (despite it is not explicitly mentioned anywhere in the thread) only actual bitcoins count. If something is valued in bitcoins, like MP's shareholdings, they don't count for the purposes of this thread. |
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This paper has been thoroughly discussed, and I think even debunked, due to authors making a few mistakes and wrong assumptions. I hope I remember this correctly (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), but they assumed that large wallets belonging to exchanges and online wallet services were wallets of indiviidual wealthy owners, as opposed to belonging to many different owners, and even possibly lumped user's personal wallets together, if the users used the same address to trade on these exchanges. They also didn't take into account that wealthy bitcoin owners break up their wealth among many smaller accounts, and they linked a bunch of addresses together with the assumption that if one address sends money to another, both belong to the same person, despite the transaction possibly being between two people.
Is it so difficult to analyze it properly?? |
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Yeah, it is absolutely a sign of craziness to care to do linear regression these days.  |
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You should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.
Didn't you just sell 2/3 of your portfolio? I mean before the recent raise in price... Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate.. Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate. The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU) |
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This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.
Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.
In this model, the average growth rate is:
per hour: 0.029%
per day: 0.69%
per week: 5.0%
per month: 23%
per year: 1140% (12.4x)
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Now, by applying log-scale and drawing a trendline using the linear regression with least square error, we find that the equation of the trendline is: -2.8 + 5.2/57(number_of_months_since_Jan_2009). - Bitcoin went from being a laggard to being overvalued in Nov, 2010. - Highest overvaluation was reached in June, 2011, when the price was $18.5 on average, but the price trendline was only at $0.70. - Despite the crash in 2011, actual undervaluation started only in April, 2012 and continued until Feb, 2013. - The peak of April 2013 saw slight overvaluation, and after the peak, bitcoin has again been slightly undervalued and still is. - Target price October 2013: $251, Nov: $310, Dec: $382. More long-term targets: - $1000: May 2014 - $10,000: April 2015 - $300,000: August 2016. |
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I have nowhere near that though I wish.  what?? I thought you carried backpacks full of metal to the dealer and got bitcoin for it in early... 2012? 2011? Key words were "carry by hand" and not "by truck". 30 kg of AU at todays prices is ~$1.3M. I can carry 30 kg quite easily  It must have been silver, then. => Cypherdoc downgraded to my level based upon his own request. |
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NEW:
Trendline update, including analysis in my latest post. Calculate today's trendline price HERE R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p. [chart courtesy to tonico/minimalB]This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows: | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | | Jan | .005 | .005 | .39 | 6.11 | 16.31 | 818 | | Feb | .005 | .005 | .90 | 5.06 | 25.93 | 659 | | Mar | .005 | .005 | .85 | 4.88 | 58.14 | 594 | | Apr | .005 | .005 | 1.50 | 4.98 | 115.09 | 461 | | May | .005 | .005 | 6.38 | 5.06 | 112.81 | 486 | | Jun | .005 | .008 | 18.55 | 6.03 | 108.39 | | | Jul | .005 | .060 | 14.10 | 8.04 | 83.80 | | | Aug | .005 | .065 | 9.75 | 10.88 | 105.80 | | | Sep | .005 | .062 | 5.76 | 11.46 | 124.33 | | | Oct | .005 | .106 | 3.30 | 11.58 | 156.50 | | | Nov | .005 | .27 | 2.60 | 11.51 | 517.00 | | | Dec | .005 | .24 | 3.51 | 13.33 | 799.00 | |
1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate. 6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox. 7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. 6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.
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This was so hot, it was moved to off-topic by the BTTT. (List of bitcoin richest people with references)
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What a worthless thread. Are you seriously just making guesses based on internet posts and not even trying to verify it?
If you do not like this thread, do not read or comment on it.
Strange how "truth" is in high regard among bitcoiners, but "pursuit thereof" is held in such contempt and many obstacles are thrown on the way. As this a community effort, it is by design feeble at first, but grows larger and more accurate as it matures (or dies, if no support is found). Let the free speech decide, if the thread is useful or not. Fool. |
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I like the use of MBTC.
Rep for being one of the first to use this.
Once we pass 500, I'm in the bandwagon to change it on the exchanges.
I just hope rpietila gets his proper credit in history for the usage of mBTC. For how much grief the poor guy took when initially using it, I think we owe him that Thank you, sir, for these kind words. Perhaps will, perhaps won't, History will show. Besides, I am a rich guy so no need to worry about it |
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Why is this happening now?
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PS: This thread is a gold mine for criminals. Great idea.
Let's face it. The amount of research put into this thread is far far less than any criminal, let alone intelligence agency, would do. We are not disclosing anything that the criminals would not already know, or could not find out without being noticed. It is for our protection that bitcoin owners are more aware of how important they are, and also that public holders are more public so that the publicity saves them from many adversities. Do you think the U.S. govt would now just as effortlessly pick the holders 5-10 and nobody would notice any pattern? Twice in my life before, I have needed to protect my own life and well-being by essentially reporting non-stop what happens to me. In the age of Internet, being highly public is what protects dissidents. |
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