You may note that I revised my message to make abundantly clear that I am stating my personal opinion, for whatever worth people want to take it for.
I do not want to endure more legal threats from you. If you insist on making them, however, I am not afraid.
But after my interactions I with you I do not believe the Bitcoin community would be well served by your services in this role.
As an aside, I do not understand why you persist in referring to yourself in the third person. I am also mildly confused at your commentary regarding pleadings for a judge. Is this a reference to your prior legal threats? I did not believe you were licensed to practice law.
I would really prefer not to have to even read this kind of stuff. But given that you brought up the issue it is not enough to speak in such broad terms. Nor do I want to wade through 24 pages and 3 github conversations of people bickering over what should have been a very positive development, guessing at what comments made you fear for your safety and feel legally threatened. So I think you need to back up your assertions with some actual links. Otherwise it just sounds like FUD. |
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I thought the buy on monday looked a little light.
He should have waited.
I was reading your nervous twitching becoming fear.
Instead, jumpy whale clearly fears competition.
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It seems Bitcoin has just got much more popular in Poland. Anti-fragile, bitches!
If the same happens to the real money laying around at Gox we'll see how "anti-fragile" Butts really are. for shame trolling lk that. I've learn3d to expect better from your other posts. gox is not bitcoin and everyone knows that if you have x usd and y btc in gox all it means is 2 numbers in some gox db. btc encourages or at least does not penalize holding value personally. and when you do so noone can take it without your permission. not counting stealing your personal private key of course. but that is very different then being able to shift millions of balances into your sphere so you can then borrow against it. I'm sorry that's my instinctive reaction to up uP UP kind of posts coming from the profiteers who did nothing besides proliferating themselves. The point here is: What's keeping Bitcoins seemingly valuable currently is not their utility but the willingness of people to exchange Dollars for them. Pretty much everybody who wants to do that exhausted their ability to do so, and once the money vanishes for some reason nobody will hop in to compensate. OTC deals will only go as far and the people who do them would be quite reluctant to pay higher prices without the 'price fixing' taking place at gox. I'm not saying that can't change in the future, but how it stands that's how it is now. I think you've underestimated the value of bitcoin to allay fear of the future. And I'm not talking Armageddon. 10% interest with a -5% real return would be bad enough. Its a big market -- a significant portion of the value of gold is attributable to this service. Of course gold's role here is tarnished due to its ability to be detected, difficulty of being transferred, having been (once upon a time) declared illegal for this purpose and ultra high value density (hard to actually buy lunch with it). So a diverse commodity strategy (gold, silver, bitcoin) makes a lot of sense... bitcoin ESPECIALLY looks good in the boiled-frog scenario (where life goes on, basic services still work, just another day where your savings are getting pilfered) compared to gold/silver. Read the above posts from actual Portuguese people. They are basically saying this is a non-event because no-one in Portugal ever believed that they'd see a dime from their "retirement" anyway!!! WTF?! That's like saying I'm not worried about radiation exposure b/c I already have cancer.  So bitcoin HAS utility right now -- its utility is peace of mind. And of course it does have "raw" utility -- the ability to buy tons of stuff either direct or via services like Gyft... |
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LOL, can someone recommend an equivalent multi-exchange summary site esp. with Chinese exchanges? Preferably not one owned by any exchange... Can you tell me why you think bitcoincharts.com is owned by an exchange? I have seen this rumor several times lately, but I have seen no evidence, and my memory tells me differently (yet is not clear enough for me to tell you who in fact does own it). Yes, their whois says "K.K. Tibanne Privacy", but that is just the standard privacy information for any domain Kalyhost registers. Being hosted by Mark Karpeles company doesn't mean MtGox owns it. no reason other than what others have said on this forum... not really worth the time to investigate it. Actually, it also has issues on my mobile firefox browser so I'm ready to change anyway. It's script somehow stores up all the updates and then when I pop back to the page the rows blink yellow rapidly, unspooling all the page updates. Obviously that's a bug that could be fixed (might even be in firefox but I don't see it on any other page) but also for mobile I'd rather it was not using bandwidth spooling all the page updates when the browser is hidden. |
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LOL, can someone recommend an equivalent multi-exchange summary site esp. with Chinese exchanges? Preferably not one owned by any exchange... |
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Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges. What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop! Gox will still maintain the lead [...]
unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months. Don't you think that the only reason for BTC exchanges not to offer this facility is because they're all playing there own markets? I can't understand it otherwise. If your commission rate is based on volume and tied to price, you'd think they'd want you to trade often. I can put a limit order on buys at Bitstamp but because I can't stop loss I don't do it overnight, so they lose those trades. It doesn't make sense to me that they would turn down that margin unless that's not there business model. Profit comes from manipulation - the commission fees are just gravy. I thought they didnt do it for legal reasons Market's often very thin... and when it crashes it goes down amazingly fast. What happens if Gox can't meet your stop loss? Better to not offer the feature than to get sued over it. |
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Ok, I'll give it a shot:
let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay. How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?
Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.
People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down. Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.
Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price. I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.
(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)
That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week. That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time. The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening. This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price. He put it near the money. HE WANTED it to be eaten. He WANTS coins. The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week. He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down. This is the behavior of a real long term investor... Right now, I think it is very risky to sell. But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment. There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand. What do you mean 135 was his average price? It wasnt. It was more like 132. A bid wall at the top of your market order, when moving the price that much, doesnt make sense. Doesnt mean it was manipulated or anything, just that he would have gotten sold into at 134, 133, and probably even 130. You're probably right although it would depend on the ask curve at that time but it doesn't really matter. I didn't bother to actually calculate it. Point is that buy wall was right near where the trades happen. You think that 134 or 133 would get hit, but the whale or more likely the whale's investment adviser must have thought that that was too low. This person is likely getting a commission -- so its more important to him to acquire the coins than it is to save < 1% on the purchase. It'll be interesting to see how long this purchasing strategy lasts... |
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Ok, I'll give it a shot:
let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay. How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?
Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.
People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down. Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.
Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price. I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.
(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)
That's my guess; the whale(s) are buying about a million $ a week. That's probably all that they trust on Gox at one time. The pullback on Gox is pretty natural after the kind of runup we've seen, OR maybe it is just that arbitrage is finally happening. This whale put up that wall at 135 because that was his average buy in price. He put it near the money. HE WANTED it to be eaten. He WANTS coins. The whale is NOT supporting the price during the week. He is happy to disappear for a week and hope the price goes down. This is the behavior of a real long term investor... Right now, I think it is very risky to sell. But at the same time, there's lots of coins being mined and in theory these ASIC owners need to sell to recoup their investment. There may be a large hidden ask at this price and this whale is only eating half the generated coins per week... but of course there are a lot of smaller investors adding demand. |
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Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.
Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.
Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.
I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first). I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad. You don't understand. This is massively bullish... only way BTC volumes could be that low is if the price was extremely high!  |
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Its interesting to see the situation on Gox. Over the weekend sellers simply did not fill in the ask; it still had the knife-like look of a fast sell-off. And you've got to ask yourself why would anyone put up an ask? Since its very difficult to take $ out of gox, the majority of the sellers are traders. A good chunk of them may have bought above today's price so are less likely to sell now...
TL;DR The whales won't find significant volume on Gox until they eat into new rally territory.
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If the price goes down its a clear H&S, TA wins awesome predictive power. If it breaks up its was clearly not H&S, it was a retracement.
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It seems Bitcoin has just got much more popular in Poland. Anti-fragile, bitches!
If the same happens to the real money laying around at Gox we'll see how "anti-fragile" Butts really are. for shame trolling lk that. I've learn3d to expect better from your other posts. gox is not bitcoin and everyone knows that if you have x usd and y btc in gox all it means is 2 numbers in some gox db. btc encourages or at least does not penalize holding value personally. and when you do so noone can take it without your permission. not counting stealing your personal private key of course. but that is very different then being able to shift millions of balances into your sphere so you can then borrow against it. |
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I don't know "edccdn" could easily be "Ebay Deals Co, Content Delivery Network". Registered godaddy, located in usa. And on the site, we also have: http://edccdn.com/tabletdebate/http://www.edccdn.com/thanksgiving/gt/gourmetthanksgiving.htmlhttp://www.edccdn.com/craftyholiday/Its just too eclectic -- just like it would be if it was a dumping ground for media associated with a blog. But of course this is just a blog -- it is implicitly the opinion of the blog author and not really representative. So I don't think its fake (in the sense that it won't get anyone fired at ebay deals) I just think its probably just a semi-internal drop-box type site. And best case, it just says that a few people in a very large company are interested in bitcoin. Anyway, I'd join a conf call with this guy, but we should come up with some reasonable questions... Obviously he's not going to know (or if he did would not tell us) ebay/paypal's complete bitcoin rollout strategy and timeline. :-) But at the same time, maybe I'm not the right guy b/c its not like I am running a bitcoin startup or something... |
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Please remove the phone # and ignore these trolls. You posted the name; that's pretty good. And if ppl really care I like your idea of 1 person calling. But last thing bitcoin needs a bunch of guys from these forums trolling the poor guy by phone!
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this is a good greeaaat idea. if you succeed you'll isolate india into its own currency backwater. but you'll get rich off of it so what do you care!!!
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....
hmm... which do you see last few weeks?
Or.......just some individual investors buying some bitcoins Or.......just some individuals who would prefer to buy bitcoins rather than have fiat sitting with an exchange which might go bust at any moment Who knows... The simultaneous 1.8k BTC buy on bitstamp is not consistent with the get-out-of-Gox theory... Except that it wasn't simultaneous, it was more likely a response to the Gox trade. Respect for your post, all the same. hmm... all I had was the bitcoinity 3 hour charts to compare the times. But it doesn't feel right as an arb to me... the price difference is so good right now anyway that if you could arb it, you wouldn't be waiting around with an ask to be filled on gox. You'd be running your money around the loop as fast as possible. |
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....
hmm... which do you see last few weeks?
Or.......just some individual investors buying some bitcoins Or.......just some individuals who would prefer to buy bitcoins rather than have fiat sitting with an exchange which might go bust at any moment Who knows... The simultaneous 1.8k BTC buy on bitstamp is not consistent with the get-out-of-Gox theory... |
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They are just kicks initiated by MtGox themselves trying to spark the market alive so they can obtain fees which they can use to recoup their seized $5M. They are almost bankrupt
Kinda like using a defibrillator on a dead body
The simultaneous purchase of 1.6k on bitstamp makes me think that you are wrong... |
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I personally think some big money is waiting in the shadows. Imagine if a couple billion moved in right now. Popularity would skyrocket, everyone would go all-in (because the initial billionaire pushed the price up to extreme highs already), pushing the price up even further, earning the billionaire who invested his money a huge ROI? Why wouldn't they do this? Prolly because the market is not liquid enough for this kind of money. Maybe the bitcoin ETF from the winklevii will allow this kind of money to move in.
Who would you even SEND a billion dollars to if you wanted to buy that much bitcoin? Gox? You'd log into your gox account and it would say 1,000,000,000? And you would click "Market order"? Not happening. Not now, probably never on gox. Whale MO: Market can't take that and the risk is too high. You'd start by cracking through a few ask walls (because you know your demand is going to push up the price so you might as well be the one that benefits) and then proceed by transferring a few million USD worth a week (descending as the market thins out) and buying on multiple exchanges simultaneously whenever reasonable ask walls start to build up. You'd be willing to buy on exchanges that are 10-20% higher than others because you know your purchases alone will drive supply/demand curve enough so a 10% premium will be over taken in a week or 2, if that is where the liquidity is. By transferring weekly, you never have too much value on the exchange and you eat the vertical portion of the ask curve, which gets you the most coins without driving the price much (you want to keep the price low for next week). You'd buy BTC right away to minimize the time $ is on the exchange... so early in the week is likely. If you have left over $ for the week -- that is, there weren't enough asks, you put up a wall maybe halfway back to entice big sellers to move BTC onto the exchange (its fine if they don't sell into your wall. if its put up as an ask, you'll get it next week). If you spent your weekly transfer, then no walls and no activity for a week -- to let the price drop down as far as it will go. This is a better choice for a "whale" than putting up an ask wall b/c bitcoin is now officially $, the exchange knows who you are, and you have no interest in being prosecuted for market manipulation over maybe 5%. And especially when it puts your hard-won BTC at risk of purchase by a surfacing whale. Pump MO: If you were "pumping", you are doing it differently; you want to maximize slippage. So you'd buy in much bigger gulps -- the further you push along the curve the further your dollar pushes up the BTC price. Possibly even right after someone else's big buy (remember a bit of a loss in buys don't matter much -- if you are pumping you have a much bigger stash you are prepping to sell) And you'd probably do it on one exchange only, relying on arb and trending bots to buy up the others. Pumping like this would require a protective bid wall near your final price to psychologically cement in the new price. You would never leave an ask wall half bought, there's no pump for your buck. You'd put a bid wall up safely away from it and hope other eat into it while you transfer more $. And when you did eat it, it would be the wall + the flat behind it... hmm... which do you see last few weeks? |
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