Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Miz4r]

Gox had worse depth a year ago.

False.

Not false. Bid depth on Gox was a bit over 1M USD a year ago (until July 2012 at least), and it didn't go up significantly until February this year. On Bitstamp it's around 1.5M USD lately. So at best you could say the depth was about equal.

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[Its About Sharing]

Not sure what is going on. But something weird is in the air. Rumors of something big at GOX happening and now someone trying to crash Stamp?

Do you have a source for the rumors?

No, that is why I said rumors. 

[lucas.sev]

At least the wall was real

[Walsoraj]

At least the wall was real

"Let teachers and priests and philosophers brood over questions of reality and illusion. I know this: if life is illusion, then I am no less an illusion, and being thus, the illusion is real to me. I live, I burn with life, I love, I slay, and am content."

-Conan the Barbarian, from the story Queen of the Black Coast

[rampantparanoia]

all in all we're just mere bricks in the wall.

[lucas.sev]

I admire people who bought above 130 and hold. We might go up. Situations like these remind me why I fucked up a few times. I would look at it today and think 'shit, I won't fall asleep holding BTC today'

[Cablez]

Not sure what is going on. But something weird is in the air. Rumors of something big at GOX happening and now someone trying to crash Stamp?

Do you have a source for the rumors?

No, that is why I said rumors. 

Actually I was just looking for what the rumors actually were.

[prophetx]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.  

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

hmmm the community, define that?

because i have been told lots of people  buy and sell btc for things that have nothing to do with mtgox, bitstamp, etc...  do not under estimate the power of historicity

edit: and avoiding time in the pen...

[ScrapOfCat]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay.  How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down.  Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price.  I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

[prophetx]

Ok, I'll give it a shot:

let's say you wanted to buy a huge number of coins in the near term, but the ask volume means if you buy them all at once, the end price is more than you want to pay.  How do you shake some bitcoins loose from the ask tree?

Maybe, you buy ~1/2 of what you mean to buy in one fell swoop, and then put up some large bids and wait.

People sitting higher up on the ask side think "Hm, looks like the activity has peaked and may start to go down.  Nice looking bid wall going, guess I'll grab some quick profit." and proceed to sell to the exact same whale that started the whole thing off.

Which raises the question of exactly how many more coins does the whale actually want to buy and at what price.  I think if they have a target price north of $135, there are going to be some very unhappy bears soon.

(If my past prediction record is any indication, this means you should sell immediately.)

crap i'm out

seriously i love your technical analysis

[telemaco]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.  

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

Prediction 3: Bitcoiners will die filling taxes. If one big whale wants to buy 1000 BTC, will need to do it in more than 10 different exchanges or suffer huge slippage. Many whales will die by accident next year when a sudden ton of paper falls over them filling taxes. Actually Bitcoin-QT client should include itself an exchange webserver and a bank account text box in the webpage.

Now seriously.

Exchanges are opening all over the world and some are designed as P2P, so it will be hard to put restrictions on that. There might be coming an arbitrage paradise for those willing to invest their time one APIs and their everchanging nature.

[tripper22]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

Prediction: 4-5 months from now, there will be at least a dozen new exchanges, most averaging about 1,000 daily volume. This "fracturing" of volume will ultimately result in lots of smaller and consequently more easily manipulable exchanges. Gox will still maintain the lead with 5,000 daily volume on the very busiest days. But, Gox too will be primed for manipulation given lower volume and depth.  

Prediction 2: 1 year from now, after enough reports of manipulation and investors getting ripped off, the SEC steps in and requires exchanges to monitor and put in place restrictions to stop blatant manipulation (or at least make it much more difficult/risky). Bitcoin gradually drops in value to almost nothing as the community realizes the price is and always has been driven by whale-walls.

I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first).

I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad.

[oda.krell]

I am tired of your bs. You are a real ray of sunshine and consistenty wrong. Do you ever grow tired of posting your negative garbage in this forum? Get out of your basement and talk to real people, try to develop positive relationships. You will be a much happier person in the long run. Welcome to ignore (my first).

I shouldn't feed the trolls. My bad.

I really don't think it is healthy to get angry about jaroslaw or any of his permutations. He has the low-effort trolling perfected to a T.

[Walsoraj]

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

[telemaco]

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

I think it would help if you could rotate your picture to the right when sideways and upside/downside when needed.

It is quite graphical and easy to understand. You don't have to move now, since you say that it will go down unless you want to use your tie as the arrow.

[Walsoraj]

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

I think it would help if you could rotate your picture to the right when sideways and upside/downside when needed.

It is quite graphical and easy to understand. You don't have to move now, since you say that it will go down.

I need as is all the time, to ward off Jaroslaw and his minions

[telemaco]

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

I think it would help if you could rotate your picture to the right when sideways and upside/downside when needed.

It is quite graphical and easy to understand. You don't have to move now, since you say that it will go down.

I need as is all the time, to ward off Jaroslaw and his minions

I understand your concerns but please consider it for next bullish market. A garlic collar could do wonders against jaroslaw

I would definetely put a lot of attention to your rotations.

[Miz4r]

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

There's many examples of people here who made a good call once and then thought they were prophets everyone should worship like a God. Many of them then proceeded to make a completely false prediction and were never heard of again.

[Walsoraj]

check my posts, i called the bottom and was ultrabullish at the time. You should put more stock in what i say

There's many examples of people here who made a good call once and then thought they were prophets everyone should worship like a God. Many of them then proceeded to make a completely false prediction and were never heard of again.

yet here i remain, the most triumphant of profits

[Loozik]

Gox's new trading engine and all of the upcoming exchanges (ex, Coinsetter) are completely unnecessary given the total volume on all current exchanges.

What a magnificent engine this is that a trader can't even put a protective stop loss, not to mention a trailing stop!

Gox will still maintain the lead [...]

unless someone who has experience in exchange / brokerage business finally sets up a quality exchange. If this happens Gox and others will die in 6 months.