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And just about the time we've nearly perfected the technical analysis something different will come at us from the fundamental side of the house.
Is that a troll-like observation?
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Supply, demand. The potential demand is staggering. I am researching self-directed IRAs. One trust company indicates the Bitcoins *must* be owned by them held for my benefit -- just like you can't have physical gold in a closet in your house in a self-directed IRA. Their legal and IT departments are researching the viability and fees. I have offered to host a virtual room to show them how to create a wallet and back it up, etc. If/when it works out then I will report here.
If only 0.1% of the estimated $19 trillion in US retirement assets http://www.ici.org/research/stats/retirement/ret_12_q4 moved into Bitcoin that would be $19 billion and all else being equal the Bitcoin exchange rate would climb x10. The US population is over 311,000,000 http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=kf7tgg1uo9ude_&met_y=population&idim=country:US&dl=en&hl=en&q=us%20population. How many of them own/control that $19 trillion? Roughly speaking there are ~1% people of each age (by year). So, for example, there are maybe some 31,000,000 under the age of 10 years -- I bet they don't own/control much IRA yet. Let's say at least half of the IRA money is in the hands of 30 to 60 year olds -- let's call it $10 trillion. $10 trillion in the hands of about 100,000,000 Americans; only $100,000 each on average (so my math isn't totally off). All, we need is 1% of them to take an interest in self-directed IRAs investing in Bitcoin. Enough interest to move only 10% into Bitcoin and we still get x5. Mt. Gox claims to be having 20,000 new accounts/day. At that rate, if even just 10% bring in just $1,000 that's $700,000,000 per year and I bet we'll get close x2 with speculator amplification. The speculators can bubble and bust Bitcoin again and again but the wave of new money coming in will fundamentally drive up the exchange rate. |
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I am researching self-directed IRAs. One trust company indicates the Bitcoins *must* be owned by them held for my benefit -- just like you can't have physical gold in a closet in your house in a self-directed IRA. Their legal and IT departments are researching the viability and fees. I have offered to host a virtual room to show them how to create a wallet and back it up, etc. If/when it works out then I will report here.
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In Excel; Data->From Web->Address ( http://bitcoincharts.com/)->Goif Script Error popup comes up then click No click black right-pointing arrow in yellow box to select the Market table click Import click OK to manually refresh; Data->Refresh to automatically refresh periodically; right click on table cell->Data Range Properties->Refresh every enter number of minutes (I use 1)->OK |
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rHSo3YeNaFhP5FPgDoaSGzNJLvx6UbtzA5
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I just bought 6.7 BTC @ $144.49 so of course the price will now plummet but I'm ready, I've got another $4,000 ready to go in. Then again having revealed my plans it will rise until I've got my whole $5,000 in and then it will plummet. All the smart money will be selling, even selling short, given my move into Bitcoin.
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 Thought explorer: got a 1 BTC coin for Christmas present from son (the cool bitcoiner); reads a lot, struggling to get $5,000 of play money in through Mt. Gox switched to Dwolla and CampBX; tells story to financial or technology oriented friends and family to get their feedback |
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I submitted a support request to Mt. Gox (#75703).
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BofA rep indicates the problem is at the Mt. Gox bank. Apparently Mt. Gox will need to sort it out with their bank.
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I attempted to do online international wire using the information provided by Mt. Gox;
Wire information:
Beneficiary Name (Recipient): MtGox Co Ltd, Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan (IMPORTANT: if the beneficiary account name is not entered, our bank cannot assign the funds to our account)
Branch Number-Account Number: 210-1457705 (can be entered without the hyphen)
SWIFT: MHBKJPJT
Name Of Bank: Mizuho Bank Ltd.
Branch Name (if required): Shibuya
Bank address: 1-5, Uchisaiwaicho 1-Chome, Chiyoda-ku 100-0011 Tokyo, Japan
Recipient Address: Round Cross Shibuya 5F, 11-6 Shibuya 2-Chome, Shibuya-ku
Tokyo, Japan 150-0002
Unfortunately I get the following response;
"According to our records, this account was previously suspended from the Funds Transfer Service therefore it cannot be added at this time. For information relating to this account, please contact a Bank of America customer service representative."
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Months later; what is the feeling about Bitfloor now? I tried wiring to Mt.Gox but it bounced back with no explanation. I'm not feeling ready for BTC-otc yet. Coinbase seems limited. BitInstant seems costly. Am I the only one struggling to find a safe and reliable way to exchange USD into BTC?
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Cool! Thanks Rob for the 0.0006653 BTC. As the first contributor I will always remember you. I will put your name at the top of the chronological list in the source code. Rob's the only one that's given me anything toward my HQBR (high quality begging robot). You other folks are missing the boat. 16V9UivwWtp6iGsaRnWycUjZJBcDDQRmV4 With this small funding I will start developing the HQBR. Hmm, I think I'll work in AutoIt http://www.autoitscript.com/site/autoit/ at first; it will be quick to get something working but I can imagine it won't scale. Oh, shoot, I've run out of funds but at least I've made progress. Unfortunately without additional funding I will not be able to finish the development; as such none of the funding plus can be returned yet. |
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I have an idea; a high quality begging robot. I will need funding to develop it. If it works out well then I will return your funds plus. If it does not then I won't.
My true aim is to see how quickly I can collect more than Rob did.
16V9UivwWtp6iGsaRnWycUjZJBcDDQRmV4
Rob, relax and beg with a little less energy.
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The Bitcoin becomes like rare art scenario worries me; will the miners abandon us in search of higher rewards from a digital currency that scales better? How many transactions per period are required to make it worth their while? If they do jump then does Bitcoin become vulnerable to a 51% attack? Do the holders of rare art Bitcoins have to pay a fee for parking value for long periods of time without transacting to sustain their security?
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Let's be real men (well, the women can be men if they want but I hope not); when will it hit 2^10 = $1,024 or approximately $1 trillion in market cap?
1) it could go to zero and never come back, e.g. fatal architecture flaw, etc. -> people die (hitmen hired, etc.)
unlikely? but not impossible
this situation would be a rather ugly push (everyone (or next of kin) get's their bets back)
2) it could level out at some amount below our target held down by some unexpected constraint
confidence shaken but not broken
if/when other currencies lose value against the Bitcoin the constraint won't hold it back
potentially long delay until payout
3) word spreads, an ETF is not stood up very quickly
in this day and age of instant news enough non-retirement funds battle their way in through Bitinstant, Coinbase, etc. walking the exchange rate up in a few years to our target
4) word spreads, an ETF is stood up soon
An ETF could bring enough value in rocketing the exchange rate to the target in mere months.
5) it could eventually become the new global reserve currency replacing the US dollar
It just can't scale as is to handle untold zillions of micro-transactions but it's plenty good enough for a low enough transaction rate for long term investments, i.e. Bitcoins effectively become a collectable like rare art
6) some other scenario
I'll take a stab at it; Tuesday, January 14, 2014.
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A Bitcoin address only holds Bitcoins and that's it. It does not hold US dollars or anything else.
A Bitcoin wallet is just a convenient tool (application) for;
1) generating Bitcoin addresses (and the keys that control them) in the first place
an address itself is not private per se -- in fact, you have to reveal it in order to have it be the target of a send
you will never see and don't need to ever see the key but it is there in your Bitcoin wallet
2) receiving Bitcoins into those Bitcoin addresses
3) sending Bitcoins out of those Bitcoin addresses to another Bitcoin address
the ability to send Bitcoins out of an address is only possible by the holder of the key
A personal Bitcoin wallet residing on your own personal computer (or other device) is not the only way to generate Bitcoin addresses. Mt.gox and other service providers will generate (and manage) Bitcoin addresses (and the corresponding keys) for you too. Mt.gox and other service providers provide additional services, e.g. converting US dollars into Bitcoins and vice verse. The trick is getting US dollars or any other non-Bitcoin currencies) into your Mt.gox or other service provider account in the first place.
A personal Bitcoin wallet residing on your own personal computer (or other device) of Bitcoin addresses is yours and yours alone as long as you keep it secure. For example, you should encrypt your wallet immediately and then back it up regularly (after every transaction).
A Bitcoin address (and corresponding key) generated for you by a service is naturally at risk *but* the service providers are highly motived to be trustworthy. Their reputation would be utterly ruined if they didn't keep the Bitcoin addresses generated for you secure.
No matter how a Bitcoin address is generate (via a Bitcoin wallet application or via a service provider), there are multiple ways to get Bitcoins into your Bitcoin addresses.
1) For a fee, Bitinstant can do it via cash delivered in-person to a CVS or Walmart.
2) With limitations, Coinbase can ach it out of your checking account.
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