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6801  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 15, 2013, 04:57:27 PM
Let us continue upwards.

Somebody still believes that we will revisit the $40-$70 area ever again?
6802  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 15, 2013, 04:38:10 PM
Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.

I bought over 500,000 ltc at an average price close to 1 cent. You might think my gain was small but i dont.

There is some kind of skill involved, which I don't have.

Investing 3% of my cryptostash to alts, would in my case most probably lead to same returns but diminished control. Even if it goes up 10 times relative to btc, it will just increase my total wealth to 0.03*10+0.97 = 1.27 (+27%). This is almost insignificant. So in a sense, I think your gain was small Wink

I prefer to keep things simple. That is why I bought bitcoins only after the 2011 bubble, giving it ample time to turn out being a hoax. Granted I paid 10x more than some, but also made the groundwork for successful long-term holding.

27% of your overall investment is not insignificant no matter which way you look at it, especially when you would be risking only 3%.


There is currently no good reason why an altcoin would perform so well. Keeping track of all of them is also too time-consuming.
6803  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 15, 2013, 04:21:57 PM
Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.

I bought over 500,000 ltc at an average price close to 1 cent. You might think my gain was small but i dont.

There is some kind of skill involved, which I don't have.

Investing 3% of my cryptostash to alts, would in my case most probably lead to same returns but diminished control. Even if it goes up 10 times relative to btc, it will just increase my total wealth to 0.03*10+0.97 = 1.27 (+27%). This is almost insignificant. So in a sense, I think your gain was small Wink

I prefer to keep things simple. That is why I bought bitcoins only after the 2011 bubble, giving it ample time to turn out being a hoax. Granted I paid 10x more than some, but also made the groundwork for successful long-term holding.
6804  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 15, 2013, 03:12:25 PM
i'm buying feathercoins  Grin


!!!?Huh!!!!??!??!!!!??!?!??!!!!!

Having a small amount in a few alts is not that bad. I hold a bit of xpm just cuz cpu coin. Like ltc is my gpu coin.

No interest in feathercoin for me however.

Bitcoin represents like 97% of the market cap of all crypto. Therefore for most, you save time by approximating the others to be zero (and not buy them). It takes skill to effectively play the altcoins. Personally I don't want to invest my time for such a small payoff.
6805  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 14, 2013, 12:25:54 PM
We are in the 6 month to 8 month rally cycle. Just at the base.

My call is we are at roughly late february of 2013 in terms of market sentiment. Look for a new spike in price.

All time high still in view before year's end. Hang on to your Bitcoins  Grin

+1. We are currently exerting effort to crush the ATH (which, at that time was at $32 and now @266). It will still take at least several weeks. After that, there will be another spike.

Still got some BTC?

Lack of BTC is currently none at all impediment to my progress Wink I could be healthier, though..

6806  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: October 14, 2013, 08:53:58 AM
We are in the 6 month to 8 month rally cycle. Just at the base.

My call is we are at roughly late february of 2013 in terms of market sentiment. Look for a new spike in price.

All time high still in view before year's end. Hang on to your Bitcoins  Grin

+1. We are currently exerting effort to crush the ATH (which, at that time was at $32 and now @266). It will still take at least several weeks. After that, there will be another spike.
6807  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SilkRoad domain Seized? on: October 07, 2013, 09:24:27 PM
Yes. We far too often think that everybody should at all times have behaved in actual circumstances, the way we think is most advantageous:
- given all resources
- and all time
- and assuming it's the highest priority, and
- from the hindsight.

Silly, kick me if I fall on that again..
6808  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SilkRoad domain Seized? on: October 07, 2013, 05:43:03 PM
I think the only way the Govt is going to get its hands on his coins is to let him use some of those coins for his defense.. if not, those 5 percent of all coins will be forever lost.


This is an interesting riddle. He might have saved the coins in brainwallets, in (comparably) tiny amounts. Even if they come from traceable SR sources, it is rather impossible to show that DPR has the key to them. It is possible to construct a recursive brainwallet with any number of addresses, which unfolds after knowing a single passphrase. Or use several different passphrases.

Since the total amount of commissions is not known, it is always possible to save some coins for retirement.

No lawyer will accept that money. LE can go after a law firm for accepting known drug money. He needs to have somebody outside of LE and his legal team with access to his wallets. Otherwise he probably can't get to it until bail is posted. But his hearing is this week. If he is able to post bail then watch the transactions and look for major dumps.

As you know, brainwallets work such that an easily memorizable passphrase is processed with algorithms, and/or combined with other phrases, to yield the actual password or privkey. If DPR has anyone outside who is allowed to have any contact with him, and who knows the way how the "A-part" (memorized part) of the passphrase needs to be treated to yield the privkey, DPR can just give him whatever amount he wants. The point is to have multiple addresses with different amounts ranging from sub-BTC1 to hundreds.

Even if there is no accomplice beforehand, if some of the stash is encrypted with the standard (or any describable) algorithm, it is pretty easy to tell to anyone both the passphrase and the algorithm.

We can be certain that DPR coins are not in one wallet Wink
6809  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: SilkRoad domain Seized? on: October 07, 2013, 05:22:19 PM
I think the only way the Govt is going to get its hands on his coins is to let him use some of those coins for his defense.. if not, those 5 percent of all coins will be forever lost.


This is an interesting riddle. He might have saved the coins in brainwallets, in (comparably) tiny amounts. Even if they come from traceable SR sources, it is rather impossible to show that DPR has the key to them. It is possible to construct a recursive brainwallet with any number of addresses, which unfolds after knowing a single passphrase. Or use several different passphrases.

Since the total amount of commissions is not known, it is always possible to save some coins for retirement.
6810  Other / Off-topic / Re: DPR is a hero! on: October 07, 2013, 01:19:50 PM
Hmm... until now it is quite clear that gov has indeed closed silkroad. What else are we SURE of:

-
-
-

Not much, actually.

I believe, the main questions are:

1. Is Ulbright DPR?
2. Is DPR legit?
3. Are the hitman accusations legit?

The first one seems to be true. (Let's not go into it now.)

The second one can as well be false. DPR may have worked for gov all along, or since initially going bust and after having been offered a deal. Since that, Silk Road would have been a gov operation.

The third one is of course possible, and drug lords do resort to such actions in cases described. However, there is no independent evidence. It is very sad that in almost all matters of importance, the government's side of the story is essentially a lie Sad Considering the details that are offered to us, it seems (for example) unlikely to me that there would be specific demand of torture of the victim. A more likely explanation is that accusations are false, and intended to smear the image of DPR. This is a very common tactic.

Please consider the evidence, and consider the track record of the source of the evidence  Roll Eyes
6811  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 30, 2013, 11:16:46 AM
Last60minutes.com(TM):

1-2 sellers sold about 1kBTC in Bitstamp, crashing the price from 125.5 to 122.8. On the buying side I noticed one bot was purchasing in 5 and 10BTC chunks, at market price. After the selling ended, the price rebounded to about 125, leaving the orderbook very thin around the market price (about 4% spread between 500BTC bid/ask depth).
6812  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 30, 2013, 10:18:49 AM
Right now - some action in Bitstamp..
6813  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 29, 2013, 05:41:51 PM
People should stop thinking that there are only 41k BTC on Gox. Just 3 days ago there were 55k BTC on the ask side and IMO the 'missing' 14k BTC are still on Gox,
waiting to be dumped at the right price. You'll see them again, probably within a week (some of them sooner), together with their offspring.  Wink

Moving BTC around has proven to be uncensorable (easy). To determine what happens at Gox, it is much more important to know how much fiat currency they have Smiley
6814  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 29, 2013, 05:00:27 PM
Aside from a few people (or one person) puting up ask walls, BitStamp is straight up dead.
We were sleeping, since it was night. Sunday night. What is wrong with you?

Just last week I was able to market sell BTC500 there with about 0.7% slippage (I mean sell with one click). I think it was a fair deal, since the intention for me was not to make petty money but to realign the portfolio for the purchasing of more silver. For a trade of this size, it worked very fine. The largest volume I have done there in one day was BTC1,800.

Keep some BTC, man. You might feel sorry otherwise.

The biggest BTC bull ending up missing the train would be ironic.

He told bitcoin was going to be $100,000 by the end of the year, right?
So what are you doing selling bitcoins!?  Tongue

Better yet, how are you going to buy silver with gox dollars?  I haven't seen a PM dealer yet that takes those.  Tongue

LOL, in April I took goxusd as payment for silver and gold Smiley You will find it in my public diary, those were the days when commissions abounded... The need to buy back silver now is a direct result of those actions in the spring. I took a long vacation in between...

(This time we are talking about selling in bitstamp, as evident from the quote)

After this reduction, bitcoins are still my largest holding by asset type. They are spread in multiple companies and jurisdictions, and - thank you for taking care about me - it is unlikely that I would be able to sell them all in a panic. In April I had a scheme to sell BTC2000, but managed to sell only about BTC300 before the price crashed (the following day). Then I bought back 3 times the amount and then some. Next adjustment down will be about 20%, when the first of the following happens:
- Price rises to 1000-2000
- It generates a 2013-style bubble, even if price is less than 1000
- In March, 2015
- Need to purchase something and bitcoin is most (tax-)efficient to sell.

My prediction that Bitcoin would go to $300k by the end of the year did both good and harm. Financially it ended up doing good. I bought a lot of "unnecessary" bitcoins above the core position after the crash. Now I can sell them at wash (or better), and buy back the silver cheaper.
6815  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 29, 2013, 07:02:05 AM
Aside from a few people (or one person) puting up ask walls, BitStamp is straight up dead.

We were sleeping, since it was night. Sunday night. What is wrong with you?

Just last week I was able to market sell BTC500 there with about 0.7% slippage (I mean sell with one click). I think it was a fair deal, since the intention for me was not to make petty money but to realign the portfolio for the purchasing of more silver. For a trade of this size, it worked very fine. The largest volume I have done there in one day was BTC1,800.
6816  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 28, 2013, 11:45:14 AM
https://twitter.com/barrysilbert   may take them off your hands

Yeah, his price today was $133, which satisfies me. How can I sell them to him?

This BIT will almost certainly utilize fractional reserve, as all the similar gold and silver entities have done, and act as an agent of price manipulation. (If not, the relevant authorities will shoot it down or make sure it won't even launch.)
6817  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 28, 2013, 11:35:46 AM
Disclosure: I adjusted a little bit down this week. Wanted one of my companies to buy more silver. If anyone is seeking to buy about 500 BTC for a price higher than in Bitstamp, drop me a line. Otherwise I will just dump them.

This is the first serious throw-in-the-towel sentiment from you. Silver might tick up $10 over the next year while BTC could be anywhere up to 4 digits. Puzzling.

I sincerely believe that most holders of bitcoins have done exactly as I (among others) has advocated: only invest a modest sum, and fully prepared to ride it to the oblivion if need be. My own bitcoin holdings are already up more than 1000% and I am not selling until the proceeds will give a sizable boost to my economy. Most people are not inclined to sell at a loss, even to their own detriment. On the contrary, there is a weird willingness to wait for years until an investment breaks even in fiat terms and then sell, once it has finally started to perform.

Hah, perhaps the selling of 500 BTC will now give a sizable boost to my economy, then Wink

These profits will not actually go to personal consumption, rather I will stock up on silver that is now really cheap. Late March I sold a lot of silver and bought BTC at 70-80. Now not only is BTC up +50%, also silver is down. Reversing this trade in its entirety (which I haven't yet done or even plan to do) would net me about 4000 ounces of silver, and still leave a good chunk of BTC. It is hard to conduct silver business without merchandise.

Buffett says that it is profitable to diversify, if you don't know what to do. Perhaps I don't...
6818  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: September 28, 2013, 07:24:06 AM

your 12 coins will not have much of an effect on the market at large.

I dont care for "the market at large" nor effects. I will just dump.

It is exactly these evil manipulators who just dump regardless of the market at large and the effects who keep us from realizing the true value of Bitcoin Angry

Disclosure: I adjusted a little bit down this week. Wanted one of my companies to buy more silver. If anyone is seeking to buy about 500 BTC for a price higher than in Bitstamp, drop me a line. Otherwise I will just dump them.
6819  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 25, 2013, 10:31:41 AM
Do you believe that Coinlab acted in bad faith since the beginning? Why are they withholding the money that does not belong to them?
6820  Economy / Exchanges / Re: MtGox withdrawal delays [Gathering] on: September 24, 2013, 07:48:03 AM
This is interesting. I agree it is most consistent with Gox not having enough USD. It costs about 3% to convert to USD at retail in Japan.

The fee is 5% plus some, so it appears there is also an international wire transfer involved, with the various fees along the way.

After their USD losses perhaps they are running a fractional reserve in USD. The real solution here would be for them to actually explain what is going on.

I think it is public knowledge that $5 million was confiscated from Mt.Gox customer funds. Considering that it is a Japanese company that does not likely have such a sum of their own, excess funds, in foreign currency, this resulted in a deficit and fractional reserve in customers' accounts. It is almost certainly the root cause of this bank run.

Now, the right way to do it (paragraph III.2 - - Special situations). If all firms operated this way, the pressure of unlawful seizures would be directly on the aggressor (USGov), and there would be no bank run possible.



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