Of course it depends on luck, but 99% is better than 50% isnt it.
99% is no better than 50 %. The logic will be based on your bet amount. Assuming you are betting with 99 % , you will the bet with your maximum bankroll to ensure greater profit for it rather than a spare change. If your bad luck struck up, you will lose your entire balance with a single click On the other hand if you are betting with 50 % assuming you wont be betting the whole bankroll for it which is much more safer if you "know when to stop" especially after hitting some bad luck stroke P.S : it should be 98 % AFAIK in most dice sites and not 99 % the house always must have an edge to operate a gambling casino or other operation, if people play long enough they lose ,
True, operating a gambling sites with no edge at all is pointless as people are making a gambling sites to make some profit as well You have no idea what you are talking about, someone already calculated, i think dooglus that if you wanted a profit of 50$ and you had 5000$ (im not sure about the exact numbers) you had a 99% chance of doing it. Someone calculated what? who? post the quote here You are missleading your own post, You claimed that 98 % chance with max bet is better than splitting it up to a few bet and please dont put up dooglus name in here if you cant quote his post saying that it is better to risk 98 % rather than splitting it up Dug up this old post just for you conversation between Light and Dooglus (found it faster than I expected): I already made a couple of posts on why martingale sucks - but I didn't actually address OP. I haven't done the math on the martingale method per se - but I did dig up an old conversation me a dooglus had about losing 'less' by betting less (ie. rather than all in betting, splitting your bets into n portions where you aim to get to x as a value then stop). Yes. And you're the first person who responded in such an open manner. Everyone else just tells me I'm wrong.  The trick is to split up your bet (the amount you were going to risk in a single bet) into a series of amounts which sum to a the same, and which form a sequence such that you can bet the smallest amount, and if it wins, you make the same as if you bet the whole amount at 49.5% (so you'll be betting with a smaller chance, and higher payout multiplier). And if it loses, you want betting the 2nd amount to cover the first loss and make the same net profit. Etc. If you can find such a sequence (and you always can, though it can involve some hairy math depending on the length of the sequence you're looking for) then the amount you expect to risk is less than your whole amount (since there's a non-zero chance that you will win before the last bet, and stop at that point), and so the amount you expect to lose, being 1% of the amount you risk, is less than when you make the single bet. Here's a very simple example: you have 1 BTC and want to double it. * you could bet it all at 49.5%, and succeed in doubling up with probability 0.495 * or you could bet 0.41421356 BTC at 28.99642866% with payout multiplier 3.41421356x, and if you lose, bet the rest at the same chance. If you win either bet, you double up, else you lose. Your chance of doubling up is 0.4958492857 - a little higher than the 0.495 you have with the single bet. Cool, huh? That's breaking the single bet up into a sequence of length 2. If you break it up into more, smaller bets, then the probability of success increases further. The more steps, the closer to 0.5 your probability of success gets. You'll be limited by real-life barriers, like the invisibility indivisibility of the satoshi, and the limit of 4 decimal places on the chance at JD. But in theory you can get arbitrarily close to 0.5. I think. And some quick maths (plus graphing) I cannot believe I'm saying this but I think you might be right. I went ahead and played around with a case where the player starts at 1 wants to move to 2 by making two bets (of any size between 0-1 inclusive). Hence I went to go graph the function to see if it was true and I got this: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/obkfifgbnlWhere y = probability of succeeding and d = the value of the first initial bet Notice how at both d = 0 and d= 1 the probability is 0.495 as expected (as you are either betting nothing then 1 or 1 then nothing and both are equivalent cases). And in between you get a probability higher than the 0.495 offered for the single bet. I've tried a few set values for cases where you split your value up to more than two and you do get a better result. I can only theorise that this is because as your bet size approaches 0 with the number of bets approaching infinity your expectation approaches 1. However, what I do not understand at the present is why this is so. I almost fell out of my chair when the numbers came out (I checked like 6 times), as it's inferring that you can get better than what the house 'technically' offers. The problem with this is that your expectation is better than just flat betting and logically that doesn't make sense. Both should have the same expectation. I'm going to mull it over. I haven't given it a lot of thought beyond this - doog explained it quite elegantly. When you bet your whole bankroll in a single bet, you expect to lose 1% of it.
When you split it up and bet the pieces in order from smallest to biggest, and stop when any bet wins you often don't end up betting the whole bankroll, and so you expect to lose 1% of less than the whole bankroll.
By splitting it up you reduce the amount you expect to bet, and so you reduce the amount you expect to lose.
|
|
|
|
The website update went live yesterday I believe. I'd be curious to know how people felt about the free games and I haven't had a chance to test the instant predictions yet, so I would welcome anyone placing an instant prediction to make sure the notifications and manual release notification are working. However, instant predictions will be exempt from the promotion of refunding predictions.
So, I have just been able to trust the "instant predictions" now. All I can say is it is much better than waiting the whole week just to know the result of course but still it is a bit hassle if I will need to verify this myself . Any plan of adding automatic verification as well? could be great addition for the game though. As for the bolded part. I dont see any notifications nor the "manual release notifications" on the website though all I see was this 1KenoiKsaoNwxV9QGuAu5MExjMcp1h6Fbj
2:1
Pending : 0.01 [btc]
Total : 0.0200000 [btc] My bet for A-F is in this block, which is a winning bet https://blockchain.info/block-index/882143 but I havent got my winning yet although it is now 4 confirmations atm. Should have make the winning payout instantly as well if possible.
Winning receive in my wallet ! |
|
|
|
Of course it depends on luck, but 99% is better than 50% isnt it.
99% is no better than 50 %. The logic will be based on your bet amount. Assuming you are betting with 99 % , you will the bet with your maximum bankroll to ensure greater profit for it rather than a spare change. If your bad luck struck up, you will lose your entire balance with a single click On the other hand if you are betting with 50 % assuming you wont be betting the whole bankroll for it which is much more safer if you "know when to stop" especially after hitting some bad luck stroke P.S : it should be 98 % AFAIK in most dice sites and not 99 % the house always must have an edge to operate a gambling casino or other operation, if people play long enough they lose ,
True, operating a gambling sites with no edge at all is pointless as people are making a gambling sites to make some profit as well |
|
|
|
Yeah. That is the biggest issue we are having right now and unfortunately its a common issue with new sites. It is very common indeed, even at luckyflop sometimes player are just lurking for the freerolls and at betvippoker, there isnt anyone who want to play at the ring games and just lurk around at the freerolls and GTD The trick is getting players to sit down at the ring games/tournaments at the same time. Consider setting up a rake back perhaps? The reason alot of people playing at the betpoker could be because that the site offer up a rakeback which is a good deal for ring games players I have tried setting up different types of buy-in tournaments, ring games, freerolls and it seems to have helped some but not enough. It seems to be very difficult to get bitcoin poker players to actually play.
Nevertheless, the sooner or later the seats will be filling up soon since allincrypto has close down its service. Satoshicardclub on the other hand hasnt shown any improvement at all. Bitpoker.io seems like MIA with no update whatsoever. Atleast your sites is still better than betvippoker in term of ring game There isnt anyone that want to play a ring games at betvippoker and just lurking through their freerolls there |
|
|
|
Well what if I say I have a determined goal? Like I reach 0.1 with 0.05? Would it change then knowing I will stop if I reach 0.1?
Setting a goal will not be helping you in reaching profit since at the end it will depends on your luck either but atleast it will help you in not to lose more. In order to set up a goal, you cant set a goal with just " only stop at X profit" but you must set up a goal to stop at X loss too. Nevertheless, A goal doesnt stop a gambler from gambling to keep on gaining more and more. Mark my word for it. You can check on this thread for more proof of my words https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1052406.0Basically the OP of the site set a goal of only betting for 0.01 BTC and stop after he get a profit of at least 10% of it but guess what, He cant keep up with his words and thus keep on doubling each of his bankroll What the hell are you talking about? Setting a goal does increase your chances of winning, you want a 0.01 profit? Bet 0.2 on 95% ta da your chances are 95% of winning your goal. This has been discussed before and a 0% house edge will be the same, you would still lose whenever you start using a "strategy" No it doesnt, it only help you to not lose more. Setting up a goal wont help in you in winning if you have a bad luck . You are contradicting your own words there. See the bolded part in your post, " you would still lose" you said it yourself. That is my point that I am writing if you dont understand about it. Even if I set up my goal for X profit , I will still lose if bad luck occurs so it is not helping at all but setting up a goal to stop after X loses will help me not to lose more |
|
|
|
Well what if I say I have a determined goal? Like I reach 0.1 with 0.05? Would it change then knowing I will stop if I reach 0.1?
Setting a goal will not be helping you in reaching profit since at the end it will depends on your luck either but atleast it will help you in not to lose more. In order to set up a goal, you cant set a goal with just " only stop at X profit" but you must set up a goal to stop at X loss too. Nevertheless, A goal doesnt stop a gambler from gambling to keep on gaining more and more. Mark my word for it. You can check on this thread for more proof of my words https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1052406.0Basically the OP of the site set a goal of only betting for 0.01 BTC and stop after he get a profit of at least 10% of it but guess what, He cant keep up with his words and thus keep on doubling each of his bankroll |
|
|
|
so I wanted to know what is everyone's favorite gambling place where they go to have some fun gambling?
Gambling is no fun at all especially if you keep on losing and that happened alot to me. If you are seeking for a place to gamble "for fun" then I will suggest DaDice for you since the faucet in the site is quite high compared to the other sites with the maximum of 12500 satoshis. That should be enough if you are gambling "for fun" If you are seeking some real cash maker sites then try some poker sites or sportsbook betting for it. P.S : link for DaDice at my sig |
|
|
|
What if a dice site had no house edge? Then would it be able to profit? It will not be a guarantee if a dice sites has no house edge then the gambler will be able to profit from since in the end it will depends on luck itself. Playing in a site with no house edge itself will be an advantages for the gambler itself but the house usually lower the house edge in term of bonuses which of course will be obtained for X requirement What if a dice site has a negative house edge? Will we (the gamblers) start making profit?
I would say it will be easier to make a profit but still not a guarantee. If you check at this site (unfortunately it has been closed) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1024221.0. The house is on negative house edge due to the recover loss function. In the end the site is closed since I thought it is not profitable for the house or neither the investor P.S : OP of the site claimed that it is not that the site is not profitable but I think it is because of that |
|
|
|
I've decided to quit while I'm ahead. This journey is over...for now. If anyone knows any good tipsters, let me know. I'm looking to make a long term profit betting on sports.
Thanks everyone!
You seems to be contradicting your own words there. You are stating that you decided to quit but on the other hand, you are looking for a good tipster for sports betting. Point is once you are a gambler then you will be hard to control your greed and emotions in winning more .You might say that you want to stop but deep down you will always want to earn more from gambling If you are looking for tipster then you could check on this user, basically I wouldnt say that he is good because some of his picks are quite "lucky" this few days but still he is still the best currently around here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=881042.0 |
|
|
|
We have thought long and hard about doing a "deposit bonus" but after going back and fourth with our developer we decided it is now in our best interest, since it can easily be abused.
We have also thought about doing Royal Flush and 4 of a Kind bonuses on the ring games. Would anyone else be interested in this and would it encourage you to play more on the ring games? If so we can possibly get this implemented.
Since you are trying to get some action for your ring games then it might be best if you make a promotions for "happyhour" for a rakeback of X percentage. The promotions of getting either royal flush or 4 of a kind is rather hard to get and wont attract a lot of people for the ring games. In fact, the deposit bonus could serve more for the ring game advertisement. You could add up a deposit bonus which you will only get if you have enough points for it from which points can be gotten by contributing some rake or get it from the GTD by paying the house fee |
|
|
|
What do you think will go down n todays match guys ? So far juventus are leading in the season with a 2-1 over Real Madrid but this match may come as the point Real Madrid nead ... Post your thoughts and predictions down below  My thoughts will be in a few scenario below #1 Juventus will play in a defensive position like 5-4-1 for tonight to ensure their ticket to the final #2 Ancelotti will be forced to play with 3 strikers today even if Benzema will not be playing as Chicharito will be infront with Ronaldo and Bale #3 The result could go into an agreegate draw and might go to an extra time but I doubt this scenario #4 There will be a hell lot of cards for today's match as Seria A is known for the harsh play and not to mention that Real Madrid will be playing aggresively which means that Juventus need to stop them at any cost Basically scenario #4 will be most likely to happen and the odds for it was quite good if someone wish to bet on it Juventus--Floyd Mayweather, RM--Manny Pacquiao, in every sport games, I support aggressive and offensive team, I hate defensive and utilitarian style very much. I wish RM will win although defense is very important in sports, you know defensive style makes the game sick and ugly, we fans hope a nice game but not a defensive and no shot soccer game. Defensive team may win but they don't attract fans, I am not an Italian, I don't support any Italian(defensive) team. Well they are just my prediction about the scenario that might happened throughout the game, It is not likely that Juventus will be defending for this match either as they could ensure their win with just 1 goal too. Defensive style may not get some attention as the match tend to be boring throughout the game but atleast a win is a win even if you are defending for the whole 90 minutes. This is what I based my scenario on  P.S : the Manny-Mayweather match was so yesterday best to leave it there |
|
|
|
as i understood it is not a first hand info,this is someone who buys it and then resells it.
the reason? idk to be honest,maybe he cannot place enough bets... as i see from the stats he wins around 20-30K from a bet,which is not too much.
however if i go into this i will start with small stakes,won't dive in immediately...
Is there a minimum bet to be place? Since I dont see the exact reason for this guy to resell something that is a sure win bet. Not to mention that he won around 20-30k which is quite some good sum if you ask me. I will restrain into going into this if I were you because this has some red flag that might get you burn already. Even if you diving with small stakes, you will still have a chance to lose it. i understand that it is not 100 percent safe and there is some risk,i am not that blind... probably his (the seller's) problem is like everyone else's,bookmakers do not allow high stakes on that odds so he gets some more this way but who knows... but still the illegal part is kinda scary for me, i am not sure if this can be traced to me or cause me any troubleAnything could be traceable if you are not clever enough to erase your track and since you mentioned that you can use bitcoin payment for it then you could cover up your track pretty much with mixer. I would say that this is quite a bogus thing , since if the bookmakers do not allow such high stakes, then he could have bet it in another bookmaker to cover up more profit for him. Since he decided to sell then it means that this thing is quite risky if you put on a high stakes on it. |
|
|
|
but PD has done that because of legal concerns, the same legal issues should apply to Dadice, right?
Yes the same legal issues is applied to all the online gambling sites that accept deposits from the US players but it is most likely wont affect anything here though as the owner of Dadice has been operating in "shadows" over since. The reason Stunna done that could be that since he is operating his sites not from the "shadows" which means that he could likely be tracked by the legal feds if he keeps on accepting deposits from US players , so safety precautions should be taken. P.S : from what I read, if you are not operating it from US than it might be safe but it is still better to make some safety precautions for it |
|
|
|
Joca doesnt choose Juventus to win as he choose a double chance x2 for it which means either Draw or Juventus to win. Actually he got a good point on choosing this as because that although Real Madrid is a better team overall then Juventus, the current line up for tonight's match are not the best. Not to mention that with the current line up, Real Madrid is having trouble to beat Valencia from the last match . More or less the mental impact from the last match is still on Real Madrid for the Draw result with Valencia. P.S : those who want to make an easy bucks, bet on booking odds above 45 pts , Im sure there will be a lot of cards tonight yeah but the draw result with Valencia last match made Real Madrid totally focus for La Undecima because La Liga titles seem little bit impossible to gained. I think the score tonight is 3-1 for Real Madrid. Unfortunately yes they wont get the Spanish league title and if Real Madrid doesnt win this one than this year they could be trophyless . The score is a bit unrealistic IMO, Juventus wont likely be losing this match so easily as they will put on a very defensive formation for this match , it will be either draw or a win with 1 score margin for Real Madrid. P.S : they might still win the Spanish League title if Atletico could be Barcelona though, which is unlikely to happen |
|
|
|
What do you think will go down n todays match guys ? So far juventus are leading in the season with a 2-1 over Real Madrid but this match may come as the point Real Madrid nead ... Post your thoughts and predictions down below My thoughts will be in a few scenario below #1 Juventus will play in a defensive position like 5-4-1 for tonight to ensure their ticket to the final #2 Ancelotti will be forced to play with 3 strikers today even if Benzema will not be playing as Chicharito will be infront with Ronaldo and Bale #3 The result could go into an agreegate draw and might go to an extra time but I doubt this scenario #4 There will be a hell lot of cards for today's match as Seria A is known for the harsh play and not to mention that Real Madrid will be playing aggresively which means that Juventus need to stop them at any cost Basically scenario #4 will be most likely to happen and the odds for it was quite good if someone wish to bet on it agreed lol over at directbet there are some good adds on the cards shown and a yellow for ramos and vidal is just waiting to happen they arent the cleanest of players and odds are atleast 1.9-2 last time i checked the site mate In a match like this it is likely there will be a lot of cards that is why I think scenario #4 will be likely to happen. Betting on a player to be shown a card is rather risky. If you would want to bet on this I will suggest to bet on Defensive Midfielder like Pirlo rather than Vidal since someone playing at this position will be booked quite a lot especially in a tight match like this where Juventus will be defending. P.S 1 : The odds for booking odds over 45 pts which is 3 cards or over is at 1.28 at DirectBet with the Maxtbet of 4.5 BTC. If you got some bankroll you might want to bet on this P.S 2: I made quite alot from booking odds over 45 pts from Barcelona and Munchen match |
|
|
|
What do you think will go down n todays match guys ? So far juventus are leading in the season with a 2-1 over Real Madrid but this match may come as the point Real Madrid nead ... Post your thoughts and predictions down below My thoughts will be in a few scenario below #1 Juventus will play in a defensive position like 5-4-1 for tonight to ensure their ticket to the final #2 Ancelotti will be forced to play with 3 strikers today even if Benzema will not be playing as Chicharito will be infront with Ronaldo and Bale #3 The result could go into an agreegate draw and might go to an extra time but I doubt this scenario #4 There will be a hell lot of cards for today's match as Seria A is known for the harsh play and not to mention that Real Madrid will be playing aggresively which means that Juventus need to stop them at any cost Basically scenario #4 will be most likely to happen and the odds for it was quite good if someone wish to bet on it |
|
|
|
1st match
Real Madrid - Juventus
Double Chance X2 wow I cant believe Joca will choose juventus, i'm fans real madrid and I am sure real madrid will win tonight and goes to final Joca doesnt choose Juventus to win as he choose a double chance x2 for it which means either Draw or Juventus to win. Actually he got a good point on choosing this as because that although Real Madrid is a better team overall then Juventus, the current line up for tonight's match are not the best. Not to mention that with the current line up, Real Madrid is having trouble to beat Valencia from the last match . More or less the mental impact from the last match is still on Real Madrid for the Draw result with Valencia. P.S : those who want to make an easy bucks, bet on booking odds above 45 pts , Im sure there will be a lot of cards tonight |
|
|
|
In term of investor I will blatantly said that there is a chance to make some money although the chance to lose is higher than what you will earn. Since you mentioned that you are sticking with cloudminr.io then your chance to lose is higher than what you will get since that cloud has been operating for quite some time and might stop their operation soon
P.S : all most cloud mining wont stay for such long time, if they wish to stay they will need new investor to support their ponzis, otherwise they will just cease operation and get away with investor's money
Are you concluding all cloud mining services are ponzis? Just realized that I was wrong about that and I would say most of them and not all. Even if they are not completely ponzis they may be doing some fractional mining, meaning selling more hashpower that they actually have. P.S : Corrected that, sorry, should be most instead of all |
|
|
|
1st match
Bayern Munich - Barcelona
Bayern Munich wins
odd:2.70
What do you based this on Joca? this is such a risky bet because AFAIK Barcelona is not the team to defend and although they have won 3-0 from the first leg it doesnt likely show that Muenchen will win this match and ofcourse not to mention that some key players from Muenchen will not be playing due to some injury |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
