Don't be too preoccupied with the idea that only one entity in the world is accumulating bitcoins now, whereas the sellers are many. This is the age when the pros make their moves, and they don't necessarily use the exchanges at all, except for the purpose of price suppression. Bitcoin is quickly redeeming its place among gold and silver.

+1.

By going up about 5%, Silver just increased its market cap 20 times more than the total of bitcoin's market cap. Silver is tiny, so bitcoin is minuscule.

It is almost as if we were friends...

Bitcoin is a revolutionary technology that is either worth hundreds of $billions or not much. During whole of its history it has been worth "not much" and dissecting the current price movements that (literally) I can create at will, does not lead us anywhere. It is simply too small. 99.9% of money managers have not taken any position yet. It goes to much higher or zero, and it is difficult for it to go to zero, (as well as it is difficult to shut down the internet).

The recent runup in price was an event I did not see many predicting. If it now goes to zero due to (for example) a concerted crackdown on all the exchanges, it does not alter my perception of the long term value. Nobody is forced to sell at zero. I work in gold/silver, and the crash in prices this year has lead to people not selling their scrap silver any more. In 2008 silver was valued officially at $9 per oz, but in 2.5 years it went up to $50.

This is a percentage game. You got a certain percent of coins, good.

I think Bitcoin is expanding in waves, each one is an order of magnitude bigger. In the end there may be the final forward escape, the singularity event, if everyone decides to leave fiat currency in one supermove consummating in 6-9 months. Until that happens, it just takes 12-24 months to reach a new wave ("bubble") high, driven by the investors that heard about Bitcoin during the previous top.

Now we are waiting for millions of people who heard this year, to summon their money to buy. On the other side, there is almost no one who still has coins to sell. The upmove 2 weeks ago showed that price can go up 50% with almost no buying pressure. There are so little bitcoins available that there will be an immediate squeeze as soon as the current bears decide to buy back. I bet almost nobody did 2 weeks ago. With all likelihood, most of them will never recoup their coins. This, naturally, has to be so - otherwise "there would not be enough coins for all", and price would rise even more. In the end, nobody will sell bitcoin for fiat, but it seems we are not there yet. (And may not be, if things change: I have been waiting since 2006 that nobody would sell gold and silver for fiat, still they are obtainable although silver is tricky).

Bears don't have anything to sell, so they cannot keep the price down. Only the bulls can take it down by selling. But there are no bulls! So it does not look like the price would go down for any longer period of time. Unless Bitcoin dies, of course, which we know is not happening. In 2011 it took some balls to invest and we were handsomely rewarded. Now it is quite obvious that bitcoin will be worth much more and only thing we are debating is whether an odd week will close $50 or $70 in the meantime. If you know daytrading, this is a good opportunity. Long term just buy and forget.

There are no bulls around in this forum. So who can sell any more? This day-and-night bear parade that we are witnessing can only point to rising prices (don't expect anything too soon however). It is as clear as the bull parade a few months ago, which was pointing downwards.

I did pick my words: "What would cause this?" Sellers must outnumber buyers, which can happen temporarily, and BTC may find its home in the 80s for some time, but I don't see any more "long and painful slide", because the new entrants are just so much more numerous as the current holders. Just as in late 2011. It took about a year for me from hear to buy. So is it with the 5 million new ones.

The only reason to sell now is capitulation. If you plan to buy back cheaper, good luck - panic hold is just better strategy

What exactly would cause this, as about 5 million people are very interested about bitcoins and seek an entry point, whereas current holders have pretty much emptied what they want?

I entered into bitcoin at exactly this point in late 2011 and have not regretted.

One billion dollar market cap is nothing.

Congratulations!

I also feel best for my silver holdings now as gold, silver and bitcoin are all weak. Strange, isn't it?

Nice that you care about me Currently the doctor has promised "almost full recovery" by September. I will definitely eat my pills + live a quiet and controlled life from now on.

It is funny that people over-analyze bitcoin, even though it is still in microcap territory. Not now, but until not too many months, it will again rise with leaps and bounds, and still be so very small. The wisest people buy bitcoins now. They are cheap, and survived two bubbles. You can buy with rather big money. Everybody knows, but very few are in yet.

My regret of not buying bitcoin was in 2010. I bought first time near the post-bubble low in 2011.

Btw. Have you seen the silver that I redeemed you?

I feel that the Fibonacci levels hold true here also. After a sizable runup from $66 to $104, there should be retracement. If we dip down to any of the retracement levels and keep above the last week bottom, I will start to believe we are going up next.

The following 6-12 months will likely not see new highs, the infrastructure and sentiment are both currently so damaged. But bitcoin is antifragile, and I would not sell at these levels. I bought in at exactly these kind of general feelings after the bubble pop in 2011, and have not regretted it. The following 12 months will be the opportunity for the "1%" to buy into bitcoin. They already know, based on the events of 2013.

I am not doing good yet, I admit it. But I still think that it is possible, that bitcoin reaches the importance of gold. Most of you don't think that gold is very important, yet bitcoin does not really need to conquer fiat to reach $300, gold is enough.

There is the Central Fund of Canada. It is not actually ETF iirc though, but a company whose idea is to act as ETF before they existed.

Mints get it from refiners. There is yearly supply, but not much room for new demand, that is why many places are 'out'.

Is there any news from the regulation sector? (Or anywhere?)

There is the class of Freemen, for people with some but less than 1,000mBTC. You did not likely ever consider the idea, or even see the OP This is a problem with forum communication, to weed out the noise, which prohibits the real talent from participating.

I also will close down. I will be back when we are 1/3 of the way there, I mean from $.11 to $300. The point is $1.4/mBTC, and then I will come back, this forum or something else. I think it reasonably demontrates that there is merit in my prediction, and also I have more than 10x the resources to carry it further.

So see you my friend, until probably further this year, or next, or never! 

I think this is a good closing comment. I indeed have been a public person ever since 2006, when I partnered O.P. in "Storm Warning for the Economy" TV-talkshow. Since that I have been featured in most Finnish tv-channels. Both the silver-cup-in-my-head and the Silverclub pose in the previous posting, are from 2011 when they tried to make a cult out of my friends. Well, they did, and we are still friends with the key players.

Just got off phone with my friend who estimated that since 2010, our influence to the world has 10-doubled. It will still increase (note: I am not suggesting that its is somehow my/our goal to increase influence), and the supernode system may or may not be instrumental in that. I think the world may be ready for it when we are 33% through towards $300k. I will therefore try to wake the supernode network up with the same parameters when bitcoin price hits $1.4 per mBTC. My friend did not believe it, but he invited me for sailing, so I kind of cannot lose.

I will lock the thread now, and resurrect it if at $1400 it still feels viable.

I will come back!