Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP.

[lebing]

silver still over that key support at mid 18, not saying it will stay over it forever, but interesting none the less...

only looking at silver I can tell what Ben said today: something like "Don't worry guys, no tapering or tightening on my watch"

Cha-ching.

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[molecular]

Anyone have any analysis/insights to add to either of these recent changes in the gold market:
-Backwardation for the 7th day running.
-Dealer reserves continuing to dwindle.
-Bernanke's speech (with Q&A) today.

I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

Really, it's a question of timing.  We're just speculating of course, but - when?
Today?
Another month?
Another year?
Never - you're crazy, gold is going nowhere but down?

I'm curious what other opinions there are around this.

Don't hold your breath for a permanent backwardation, it ain't gonna happen. Neither will the paper/physical disconnect, because in the end people will gladly settle for dollars even if gold isn't available.

Gold is devolving into an ordinary commodity. Expect $400/oz eventually.

That would make my buy-in point of 1 oz/BTC look more realistic.

[Chainsaw]

You know, when you are the most bullish person in the room...in a room full of Bitcoin enthusiasts...it might be time to be worried 

Thanks for the opinions, all.

[miscreanity]

I've anticipated one of two scenarios:
-A short squeeze which doesn't leave enough time to acquire at still-low rates.
-The often-discussed paper/physical disconnect, at which point physical becomes unattainable/significantly higher in price.

There are shortages of nearly all real assets, not just precious metals. Separation of financial instruments from underlying elements is happening now.

You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

Don't hold your breath for a permanent backwardation, it ain't gonna happen. Neither will the paper/physical disconnect, because in the end people will gladly settle for dollars even if gold isn't available.

Gold is devolving into an ordinary commodity. Expect $400/oz eventually.

Permanency doesn't exist, of course.

Who will gladly settle for dollars? An unemployed couple with a young child, or China's government? The former doesn't have a choice, but will not contribute strength to the currency and won't be happy about it. The latter has already rejected the dollar and is growing even stronger for it.

While the USD will not disappear, it certainly will not hold its own against any independent asset. Physical gold is the ultimate independent asset short of Bitcoin. It is far from an ordinary commodity, and it will be long after the current economic crisis subsides before its properties are no longer highly valued.

The paper/physical rift is widening. If ongoing ejection of western banks from commodity exchanges continues, a full separation might not occur. That means paper will have to match physical or become irrelevant - not the other way around.

If the USD were a dead currency with no issuing authority, I would be more inclined to agree that the dollar might be accepted more easily. It is not, and that would open up enormous potential for fraud anyway. Instead, it is self-destructive and the rats (Bernanke, et al.) are fleeting a sinking ship.

[molecular]

You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

[ElectricMucus]

You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

Could also be applied to Bitcoin.

[Adrian-x]

You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

Could also be applied to Bitcoin.

It sure could but given the thread subject and history Bitcoin is more likely the progeny

[ElectricMucus]

You could think of it as such: the body of the western world is dead; the mind is simply hallucinating on its way out. And its progeny are too young to rise yet.

love that image.

Could also be applied to Bitcoin.

It sure could but given the thread subject and history Bitcoin is more likely the progeny

As said hallucinating.

[miscreanity]

Who will accept dollars?

An millionaire account holder who got screwed by a clearinghouse. That's who.

But the inconvenient truth is that the "investment demand" IS represented by the paper markets... So if you hold gold you don't really want to see a divergence.

Assuming the clearinghouses are reliable, that's plausible. HNW entities either know, or are realizing that they are not - in large part due to USD degradation.

Millionaires may accept dollars while they still hold value, but increasingly as a means to acquire real assets, leaving the currency structure hollow. China has been doing is for a decade.

The dollar is numeraire so long as it maintains integrity. Investment demand will leave (already is moving away) when that no longer holds true.

[miscreanity]

I have to say, I am a little surprised by silver's weakness.

Yes, but silver tends to snap more violently than gold when trends reverse.

What concerns me is JPM accumulation of physical silver, which may be used to continue suppression. Physical gold supply at banks continues to decline, so there could be a revaluation of gold before silver.

Either way, I'm confident that the GSR will strongly favour silver for a period.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I have to say, I am a little surprised by silver's weakness.

Yes, but silver tends to snap more violently than gold when trends reverse.

What concerns me is JPM accumulation of physical silver, which may be used to continue suppression. Physical gold supply at banks continues to decline, so there could be a revaluation of gold before silver.

Either way, I'm confident that the GSR will strongly favour silver for a period.

You seem to think that JPM will be on the wrong side of the trade when silver goes on THE mother all of bull runs?

[miscreanity]

You seem to think that JPM will be on the wrong side of the trade when silver goes on THE mother all of bull runs?

No, I just think it's possible that the accumulation of physical silver might allow for more chicanery in the precious metals. Maybe by pushing the herd toward paper gold when the physical supply is dried up, while keeping silver suppressed. Doubtful, but a possibility.

[rpietila]

i want more silver

I also feel best for my silver holdings now as gold, silver and bitcoin are all weak. Strange, isn't it?

[manfred]

i want more silver

I also feel best for my silver holdings now as gold, silver and bitcoin are all weak. Strange, isn't it?

If over 400% above average price is considered weak then i dont know what Greeks say about the situation they are in. Bitcoin average price last 1000 days $18 last close $92.

[rpietila]

ordered a bit more silver

Congratulations!

[miscreanity]

Seen at JSMineset.com:

JPM vault fire (video)

Convenient coincidence?

[vokain]

Seen at JSMineset.com:

JPM vault fire (video)

Convenient coincidence?

hahaha what

[molecular]

ordered a bit more silver

Congratulations!

Thanks. Wished i got a bit more but first time using agime or whatever it is.  If it works out ill post in the thread for all the silver lovers.

Seen at JSMineset.com:

JPM vault fire (video)

Convenient coincidence?

Saw that last night and yeah lol. All the gold melted away i bet

lol. wtf.

Did some paperwork burn saying who owns the gold?

[paraipan]

ordered a bit more silver

Congratulations!

Thanks. Wished i got a bit more but first time using agime or whatever it is.  If it works out ill post in the thread for all the silver lovers.

Seen at JSMineset.com:

JPM vault fire (video)

Convenient coincidence?

Saw that last night and yeah lol. All the gold melted away i bet

lol. wtf.

Did some paperwork burn saying who owns the gold?

That and the records of where the gold really went. Anyone expect $200 silver by the end of 2015?

They still use paper? In what time you guys live?

They have digital records replicated over a few mediums, like tapes for example. And btw PC's are workstations that connect to a central database usually located in a fireproof and protected data-center.

[molecular]

Too easy to just edit that. Have to keep paper back ups in case something goes wrong. 

Exactly... how would one go about manipulating such information? I bet it'd involve burning of paper at some point

"Oh, this burnt paper is not a problem, we have all the data in our computer server things anyway, right, IT-nerd who's got a new Ferrari?"