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Besides I feel we will go sub-100, I just feel the second retracement of the 79->119 move (in 94.5) is calling. Bitcoin will not leave money on the battlefield but will punish all pigs alike.
If 107.5 were 105, I would say it will not be breached. Similarly I felt that 91 will hold even though it was not 95. These numbers are not meaningless, I made a mistake then but will not do it again.
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I have a feeling that goat is right. It will visit double digits today after all, one last time. Remember to buy yours then!  |
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The problem is not your comments on the market, what you fail to see is that most dont seem to like the way you coat them with how wonderfull you and your lifestyle are. Stay on topic and all will be fine. I even enjoy some of your comments.
The problem is not me or my posts, which are concise and thought-out, the problem is clueless newbs and paid trolls, who are not deleted at the instant that they post personal insults against a senior forum contributor. Insulting me is off-topic here; and there is a thread dedicated to it. Understand? Now you may go. EDIT: Link added. |
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That's a huge wall at 100. Not sure what impact it can have on the market given we're still $10 away from it. It's not like ask have has been pushing as of lately. I for one can't see how that wall can manipulate anything.
I believe it's fake. I did not know fake bid wall existed but this smells fishy. A general rule is that you set up an opposite wall to what you actually want to do. So this would be from someone who wants to sell. But the sellers don't have this much money, they are mainly fiat-thinkers who sell out too early, to be replaced weekly with new speculators. Hard to say, but my prediction still holds.  Did you notice that if I post a prediction, one or two commenters usually tell me to stfu. But they don't tell to others. and my comments have been quite good lately. |
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Yes KillaMarci, looks like a bearish pennant on clarkmoody. Most of the rocket fuel has been used up on the China news and there is not much supply over the weekend. Might retest $100.
I think we will retest $90 if we go under $105 (and i think we will). I think $100 will not be breached but no bets. My reasoning: 79->119 first retracement 104.2 95->119 second retracement 103.7. I am calling 50% probability that this will be the area of capitulation, and next we go up. - 25% we go to the $95 area and then up. - 25% we leave this behind right away since 105 mighty wall already took two assaults from above, and was not even close. There is immense buying pressure. |
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wow huuuuge buy just pushed the price up 8$  That was only because I said I am done buying. Nothing to see there. |
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Looks like time for $122
I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124. I propose the 2nd retracement to 106 (instead of 111), otherwise I hardly make any money. I think I nailed this one  Will be interesting to see if we do go over 120 here or back down under 100. Long weekend after all. How many times do I need to tell that we will not see 100 again? I am all in today because this is insanely great buy. There is also quite much support in $105 (not that it means anything but buys are real, sells are fake). |
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Looks like time for $122
I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124. I propose the 2nd retracement to 106 (instead of 111), otherwise I hardly make any money. I think I nailed this one |
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This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home  If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich
I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow. This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing. This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users. This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast) This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984. SINGULARITYWhen this is reached, the utility tends to infinity. Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2. In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months. - The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!)) - The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users The number of possible connections between two users out of N is actually N choose 2, which is quadratic... Oops, i was too tired.  Did not change the outcome, though, since (quadratic > exponential) not >> but matters little since currently the exchanges are the bottleneck or how about multisig connections...  |
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Current users are not equal to current speculators
Yeah. The speculators sell their coin for fiat profit, and "buy" 0.01% of it back when they receive their paycheck in October, 2013. |
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The above is all correct (go exponential function!). Still, if the price goes to $300k per Bitcoin this will be the single most unlikely thing (to me) that has happened. Ever.
It is only because you refuse to believe that it is inevitable. One of the summit delegates tried to tell this to me for 2 years, finally I understood it. We are now in "2". If there is still no utility, we will reach $300k by 2016. But if there is utility, the endgame can be rather quick.
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This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich
I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:
When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow. This must grow by 100% to reach
When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing. This must grow by 100% to reach
4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users. This must grow by 100% to reach
8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast) This must grow by 100% to reach
16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984. SINGULARITYWhen this is reached, the utility tends to infinity. Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2. In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months. - The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!)) - The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users
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I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
I don't know why you believe Bitcoin is going to be used by 1 billion people by the end of the year. That's simply not going to happen. Things like Facebook grow quickly because they're easy to use and people tell their friends about it etc. - Essentially everyone can go ahead and make a Facebook account. It's free, can be done in a few seconds. Take Paypal for example: NOVEMBER 2001
In a brief two years, PayPal has emerged as the most successful new
payment service provider on the Internet. Growing at a rate of 18,000
new accounts per day atop a base of 10 million registered users, PayPal,
more than any other service, is shaping how the online community thinks
about consumer payments. While the traditional financial services
industry looks on—partly in contempt, partly in awe—PayPal continues to
bear down: focusing on customer needs, methodically expanding its
service, and steering toward profitability.
This research report examines PayPal’s clear market success to
determine what lessons can be taken away by others in the financial
services industry. After describing how the service has evolved into a
point-to-point payment service, it looks at the company’s customer value
proposition, innovative marketing approach, and overall positioning in the
payments industry. The report concludes by distilling the lessons learned
from PayPal into six simple rules for developing new payment services. That's 18,000 accounts per day, roughly 6.5 million per year. I know that's 2001, 12 years ago before the internet really started catching on. However my previous point still stands: Creating a Paypal account can be done in under a minute. Getting into Bitcoin is much much harder. When I first started I had to read up on a TON of things, then I had to somehow get my money into one of the exchanges. After a few days of fiddling around I finally managed to get some €'s into Bitstamp via a SEPA transaction. Right now Bitcoin does not appeal to the general masses of regular consumers. If you want it to you need to make it MUCH easier to get Bitcoins and get to know about them. All this is going to happen in 3 months, I have written it in my diary (link in sig). It is almost as if nobody actually reads it |
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I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip. It is almost as if the becoming rich part is detrimental to bitcoin adoption...  Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today... 1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation 1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation There's a lot of obstacles before Bitcoin is embraced by enough people to reach $300k per 1 BTC. If you are so sure about your prediction, put your BTC where your mouth is Ah sorry! Until now I thought your join date was early 2011, but that was another one. You have no business understanding this yet, ignored. |
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Ok man, accept the bet.
You are not being very smart if you turn down a sure 1 bitcoin, or a sure 10 million dollars. What exactly do you need? |
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I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
Facebook users found utility, new BTC adopters aren't adopting for practical utility (because they're is essentially none relative to reality), they're adopting for the gamble of making more in a quick flip. It is almost as if the becoming rich part was detrimental to bitcoin adoption... Good that the mobile phone did not make early adopters rich, we would still have fixed lines even today... 1000 -> 1 million users => 2000x price appreciation 1 million -> 1 billion users => 2000x price appreciation |
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I think your problem is that you realize 100 million new facebook users in 3 months is quick adoption, but refuse to do the math concerning what the same number of users of Bitcoin in the same timeframe irrefutably means to USD/BTC rate.
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but I know that $300k per 1 BTC is delusional How many people you know, who bought a mobile phone, but went back to fixed line? How many tried Internet but decided it's not for them? If something happens in the world, would the news not reach the uttermost ends of the earth in latest 48 hours (if not instantly for most places)? What keeps 1 billion people from adopting bitcoin? (How can you keep them from not adopting it?) How many bitcoins are for sale? To not believe in $300k this year is a denial of the facts. Only a technical flaw in the algorithm or a superstealthfast adoption of a superior altcoin currently not existing, or an all-out wiping away of all mankind can keep USD/BTC from exploding this year. Already everyone who has any position in this world knows about Bitcoin. Just post any nugget of actual facts that can contradict my $300k this year or cease replying to me with nothing material, thank you. |
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Risto: man up. You are either spreading BS you don't believe in a ridiculous attempt to talk the price up (you know that's not happening, right?) or you really believe that 1BTC will be above $300k by the end of the year.
If its the latter, I make you an offer you cannot refuse: 2:1 odds at your favor that we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC in this year, and we publish this bet so other members can join up to a maximum total amount you choose. Minimum bet 100BTC
I only bet so that I win regardless. If you offer such bad odds, I better just buy bitcoins. Besides betting without actual transfer of bitcoins to me, is pointless hot air, therefore I either buy calls or write puts. I thought you would be happy by either getting 1 bitcoin or 10 million USD... no lose huh What price range do you believe then?? |
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Looks like time for $122
I guess 118/19 - 111 - 124. I propose the 2nd retracement to 106 (instead of 111), otherwise I hardly make any money. |
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