Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[michaelGedi]

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current user

Current users are not equal to current speculators

[rpietila]

The above is all correct (go exponential function!). Still, if the price goes to $300k per Bitcoin this will be the single most unlikely thing (to me) that has happened. Ever.

It is only because you refuse to believe that it is inevitable. One of the summit delegates tried to tell this to me for 2 years, finally I understood it.

We are now in "2". If there is still no utility, we will reach $300k by 2016. But if there is utility,

the endgame can be rather quick.

[rpietila]

Current users are not equal to current speculators

Yeah. The speculators sell their coin for fiat profit, and "buy" 0.01% of it back when they receive their paycheck in October, 2013.

[phatsphere]

can we agree to stop this awful 3d on 2d wall postings? a much more better solution would be a flat 2d plot, where the colors mark the height of the walls over time on both sides. same color means same height.

and in case nobody wants to plot this quickly in matplotlib, where can i get the raw wall height data over time? is there a good source?

[keewee]

[SAQ]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

So, according to exponential growth, what will the price be on Monday? We all know if 1 billion buy 1 bitcoin it would be a lot - still not 300k, 50k, but when are 1 billion people going to adopt it?

Do we even know how many people have bitcoins today?

[lunarboy]

No basis, just a sneaky feeling its going back down a little now after the hectic day.  

[solex]

What I don't understand is why we put ANY belief in the graphs.  First rule of investing is that past performance is NOT indicative of future performance (good or bad).

Bitcoin is not on a performance curve but an adoption curve (at least that's my belief).

When it reaches near saturation, it will about flatline at whatever price with minor fluctuations and probably a slowish upward climb due to fiat inflation and bitcoin deflation.

Exactly. And during the adoption curve exponential gains are inevitable until saturation is reached. This was seen with MSFT and AAPL in the early years.

[solex]

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.

However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.  

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

[Rockford]

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician  

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.

However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.  

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

+1

  I had the same conclusion/theory/gut feeling

[KillaMarci]

Agree, you'r buying instinct is state of the art. Those 700 bought at 134 day before 40% crash is the move of the Master tactician 

It was irresistible, goat sold to me at 3% discount to Gox!!  

At the time of the deal the terms were in your favour (if we skip over the no-escrow part). Goat admitted to making a slightly unprofitable deal to see whether you could actually cough up $92k. That the market went significantly south after that is just bad luck (and unimportant in the long run).

At that time I did not fully buy back. I could buy back in full now and be better off. I just assumed we were going up, silly me.

However I'm not going to buy back all now, I want lows 70s!!!

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever. 

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

Can someone explain this magic to me?

[Frozenlock]

This 'magic' has won its place in the wall of fame of bold predictions.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.msg2031019#msg2031019

[Dyaheon]

Risto: man up. You are either spreading BS you don't believe in a ridiculous attempt to talk the price up (you know that's not happening, right?) or you really believe that 1BTC will be above $300k by the end of the year.

If its the latter, I make you an offer you cannot refuse: 2:1 odds at your favor that we won't reach $300k per 1 BTC in this year, and we publish this bet so other members can join up to a maximum total amount you choose. Minimum bet 100BTC

I only bet so that I win regardless. If you offer such bad odds, I better just buy bitcoins. Besides betting without actual transfer of bitcoins to me, is pointless hot air, therefore I either buy calls or write puts. I thought you would be happy by either getting 1 bitcoin or 10 million USD... no lose huh

Eh, you know that "logic" doesn't fly. You CAN buy bitcoins, keeping them locked in escrow for a few months is no big deal when you're holding them anyway, like you are as a non-speculator. It's not hot air either, it's an escrowed bet. Nobody can touch the bitcoins until the result is clear.

I don't think anybody is going to bother locking in 100BTC for a possible 1BTC win, that's just ridiculous and you know it. So it seems clear to me that you don't believe in your (IMHO) wildly delusional spout, so just please stop it? You do have good posts and points as well, just get back to making those.

[samson]

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever.  

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

Are you 'all in' then ?

[Richy_T]

a much more better solution would be a flat 2d plot, where the colors mark the height of the walls over time on both sides. same color means same height.

Sure. PM me and we can discuss my rate. Or do it for yourself and see why it's not such a good idea (the human eye is not all that good at color).

and in case nobody wants to plot this quickly in matplotlib, where can i get the raw wall height data over time? is there a good source?

I posted the script I use a few pages back. You can have that for free. (tips always appreciated though).

If you really don't like the 3d plots, feel free to ignore ChartBuddy. He won't mind.

[TiagoTiago]

Could you add a pair of lines connecting the the lowest ask and highest bids to their respective previous values please? I think it would look nicer that way.

[solex]

FWIW $80 was the low for a long-time, maybe forever. 

$115 is Fair Value for Bitcoin NOW.

sqrt (Peak $266 / Low $50)  = 2.31

sqrt (Retrace peak $166.4 / Retrace low $79) = 1.45

$266 / 2.31 = $115.2
$166 / 1.45 = $114.5
  $79 * 1.45 = $114.5
  $50 * 2.31 = $115.2

Expect Bitcoin fx rate to oscillate with a median value of $115 for some time, at least until next major news-fed feeding frenzy!

Can someone explain this magic to me?

What is commonly overlooked is that a move from 100 to 200 is the same magnitude (percentage-wise) as a move from 100 to 50, i.e. a doubling in value is the opposite of a halving. Taking the square root of the change means that both directions are directly comparable.

Are you 'all in' then ?

yes. since $13

This 'magic' has won its place in the wall of fame of bold predictions.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=193526.msg2031019#msg2031019

Excellent.  I would rather have this by my name than many other predictions, like the $1m per BTC!

[telemaco]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

This is really interesting! Thanks for sharing it!

But is it not possible that the spread rate or even the utility gets halved or divided by 10 just by some bad policies by states?

[Frozenlock]

The 'utility' aspect is explained in more details here:
http://konradsgraf.com/blog1/2013/4/6/hyper-monetization-questioning-the-bitcoin-bubble-bubble.html

[ineededausername]

This is definitely the last one today, if you don't believe NOR know math you can go home If you do either, and buy bitcoins, you will be very rich  



I used a cocktail party example today, regarding bitcoin's utility and adoption:

When 1 person in the ball of 1000 (0.1%) uses bitcoin, it means zero utility and 1 evangelist vs. 999 crowd. It takes 999 one-on-one conversations to tell everybody about a thing that is completely useless, so it is very slow.

This must grow by 100% to reach

When 2 people in 1000 (0.2%) use bitcoin, it means 1 utility (utility is defined by number of connections between bitcoin users, expressed as a factorial (k-1)!) and 2/998. It takes 499 conversations to tell about a practically useless thing.

This must grow by 100% to reach

4 people in 1000 (0.4%) -> 6 utility (4-1)!, 4/996. It takes 249 conversations to tell about a thing that is slowly getting useful, and the group pressure begins to form, as the same conversation may have 2 bitcoin users.

This must grow by 100% to reach

8 people in 1000 (0.8%) -> 5040 utility (8-1)!, 8/992. It takes only 124 conversations (8 times faster spread than when bitcoin had 1 user and no utility, and the utility is growing very fast)

This must grow by 100% to reach

16 people in 1000 (1.6%) -> 1.3*10^12 utility (16-1)!, 16/984.

SINGULARITY

When this is reached, the utility tends to infinity.

Notice that it took exactly as much time to reach 2 from 1 as it takes to reach 7 billion from 2.

In this example, we are now half way between 1 and 2 people, and bitcoin is slowly exhibiting any utility whatsoever. If the utility does not correlate with spread, we will reach $300k anyway, but it will be 3 years from now. If it does correlate, bitcoin adoption can and will happen in 3-6 months.

- The utility will grow factorially (factorial growth >> exponential growth(!))
- The spread rate is inversely correlated with the number of current users

The number of possible connections between two users out of N is actually N choose 2, which is quadratic...