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7241  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 27, 2013, 06:47:35 PM
HOLY CAMOLY RPTELIA JUST SENT ME 13 BITCOINS !

Quoted for the future generations, since it seems that the address was in Easywallet (which I also use for petty cash), and there is no blockchain transaction associated with it. Jeremias (Easywallet's operator etc.), was here whole evening with me yesterday. Justin Bieber lives next door, but he unfortunately has to work, which I also do for 4 more hours.

Dude, you need to go and knock on Biebers door today, give him a handful of free Casascius coins.

Or hand them out to his entourage. If no one opens the door, you shove them under the door. Do it!

Wish granted:

7242  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 27, 2013, 02:31:49 PM
The price is not considered a bargain as its still remaining in this range..I'm betting for a black monday..

And your definition for "black" goes something like...

...it crashes through rpietila's support line of $115, goes all the way to $95, enabling rpietila to invest the proceeds of last week's OTC trades (about 700 grams of gold, 22 kg of silver, EUR 28k cash, 60k bank money) with 30% better exchange rate that he would otherwise get, and bounces back to barely above $110, closing the month with a +15% green candle.

Black indeed. I'm looking forward to it..  Grin
7243  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 27, 2013, 01:12:51 PM
To me, it seems that we will likely not see $140.00 ever again.

This one was proven wrong. Although my previous call of $115 never again (uttered @ $122) likely holds.

Consider the current prices as a gift. The safest way to buy bitcoins is to aim to make an ATH with your purchase. Statistically that has the lowest probability of ever being visited again.
7244  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 27, 2013, 12:09:15 PM
y'all expect to be deeeleeeeted.

"de·leet, 'de-leet'. /v. to erase all non-leet content from the thread"; ah thank you cypher. This made my day.

All I need is a moderator. Is there any way to appoint someone to clear your self-moderated thread? Did smoothie already document the non-leet part so that it can be deleeted? As usual, the level of discourse only starts to rise after I have been silent for 4 hours.. The good part is that after going to sleep thinking you're the hairiest troll out there, every morning presents new opportunities to show off.

And since it is public knowledge that I cannot even make a photo from my iPhone to appear here, won't someone who was there, please post a pic to counter the sad forever alone mpoe troll. The marble bathtub throne was nice, pixelated version of course.
7245  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 07:18:22 PM
I got a phone call from upper echelon that I should not troll in such an epic fashion. So sorry - I will not even mention to you that I have a clandestine door leading directly to the premises occupied by Justin Bieber currently, so no need even to go to the public area of the hotel. This wing does not really have more rooms than the ones that we are occupying, and it is closed from the "public" ie other hotel guests.

Not that the above wasn't true, it is just that not all understand that it is marketing. Public relations expense. I am almost sober (I will post pictures if you want) and we're soon going to sauna after the public lulz is over. The n00b can take his 13,370mBTC LOL, as if I did not do it on purpose.

Expect me to announce the Bitcoin Supernode Summit soon (after this mess is cleared). The participants will learn from me and each other, the coolest guys in Bitcoin Universe, how to effectively manage their wealth, instead of just guarding their paper wallet with a gun. Life is meant to be interesting, thank you for tonight.

<rpietila has left the study, and will join his guests in the other parts of the suite>
7246  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 03:38:31 PM
yeah thats fine. i guess i will have to ask him how claiming to send 13 btc proves he has 24k btc in a different thread since/if he is going to cover his actions here.

Srsly goat, wtf are you smoking..? I was quietly minding my own business, not about to prove anything, this bloke shows up and want me to send some BTC to prove that I am something. Well, since I am, and I felt like that, I sent him 13,370mBTC. Then I wanted it back since he did not say he intended to keep them. (So far no show tho.)

If what I just did was somehow out-of-place wtf you still lamenting over your supposed 5,000,000mBTC bet with Matthew. Give me a break, read my posts and realize you can live 10x more comfortably than I, even this day. You have one of the largest BTC stash on this planet, spend it like a man and don't question the others who do likewise!  Cool
7247  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 02:30:38 PM
I don't see the TX in the blockchain?  Huh
I kinda wondered if it was a sock puppet account.

No it wasn't. But I have a hard time proving it, since I paid from Easywallet, and the recipient also had his account in the same service (which is revealed to me after the fact, by a different confirmation message, instant transfer, not needing to pay fee, and the fact that blockchain was not affected).

Since I already told that I personally know Jeremias, the operator, and how the service is structured, I have no way of proving to you whether it was legit  Undecided
7248  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 02:18:41 PM
HOLY CAMOLY RPTELIA JUST SENT ME 13 BITCOINS !

Quoted for the future generations, since it seems that the address was in Easywallet (which I also use for petty cash), and there is no blockchain transaction associated with it. Jeremias (Easywallet's operator etc.), was here whole evening with me yesterday. Justin Bieber lives next door, but he unfortunately has to work, which I also do for 4 more hours.
7249  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 02:11:50 PM
LOL, what a troll. Now, your turn to prove to me -

send it back Smiley

17neXTeRQswdV1Hr6csmssJL2HpFz5bGoi

You should remove his posts from your thread. They are just cluttering up your diary.

He is useful, since he acts as a living proof that

A) I have bitcoins, since I can just throw them away at will

B) He has yet to realize, what I say here is true, and anyone who reads it can just buy bitcoins with his spare cash and be rich, no need to beg to have them.

The most juicy early adoptership window is right now, and it closes, when 2% of the world's population has bought in. At that point we will be at $300/mBTC, my tip to this guy could have bought him 10 houses [NOTE: I kindly asked him to give it back, since it was just the proof anyway - he can invest his own money and be happier LOL], and we are entering in a dangerous bubble territory. Buy now, or refrain from buying above $300k, like I refrained from buying bitcoins during its runup and crash in 2011.
7250  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 26, 2013, 01:34:14 PM
I would play lazy fat cat at this stage. If ever certain events occur, during the rest of the week, we are positioned to make about 100,000mBTC, which will support our current operations for 48 hours. If not, we just continue our current operations without this support, since the internal appreciation rate of our bitcoins is enough.
7251  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 12:34:21 PM
I will have another meeting in 10 minutes, I am eager to tell you what I have been doin (after all - the topic of this thread!)

But I want to drop a few figures.

I have currently increased the size of my organisation, and reserved some prime resources (such as the most expensive by far hotel suite in Finland) for my exclusive use. My burn rate is currently about $200,000 per month if I continue at this level. It may sound like much, but measured hourly, it is a more understandable $278 (about 2,000mBTC). Since most of the resources are contracted at a daily rate (such as the hotel) or even hourly (most of the staff, taxi, etc.), I can adjust the burn rate in quick order if need be. I plan on spending at this rate until midnight (8.5 more hours), and keep the room till noon, tomorrow. After that my organisation will be readjusted at about $25 per hour (about 200mBTC).

Bitcoin has appreciated 900% since January 1st. ($135/$13.5). This may likewise sound like much, but the growth is actually a meager 0.08% per hour.

So in absence of any trading operations or other cash flow (absence of which is not the case, since I am a businessman), I am able to burn this much money on my high court, indefinitely, if I have 2,400,000mBTC. Which I do.


7252  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 26, 2013, 11:23:59 AM
I think Mircea Popescu does not behave well towards people that are not as smart as he is, and that he should grow up.

However, his understanding concerning the role of money in summer 2013 is correct, as far as I can see it.
7253  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 25, 2013, 08:34:46 PM
LOL, I bought in with my speculative position. You may stop selling now, thank you  Cool
7254  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 25, 2013, 02:03:37 PM
By short I mean that you hold fiat, after having the bitcoins. It is not short in a traditional meaning of the word, but it is willingly giving up the bitcoins that you could have held instead.

lol @ what bitcoin does to meanings of some terms: initially "to short" meant to "sell borrowed stuff". Later it came to mean just to "sell stuff" and now it means to "hold fiat". lmao, priceless!

In general I think that buying/owning anything, in anticipation that you can buy more bitcoins with it later, is shorting bitcoin. While this may be a good strategy, we are yet to see the emergence of commodities that can appreciate in value in bitcoin terms. (Casascius coins is the only example that I know of so far.)

We cornered not only the available supply of Casascius coins in Finland, but also the available supply of suites in Hotel Kämp, the premier in Finland:

7255  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore on: April 25, 2013, 11:29:11 AM
Interesting, how strong today sell off will be.

To me, it seems that we will likely not see $140.00 ever again.
7256  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoins's fate, soon to takeover the US economy on: April 25, 2013, 09:59:49 AM
Yeah, I think oakpacific needs to buy himself some quality weed while it still is available..
7257  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoins's fate, soon to takeover the US economy on: April 25, 2013, 07:13:08 AM
U serious?

Outline a scenario, where the following statement would not hold true:

"At any point less than $1 million per BTC, in current dollars, enough of the liquid wealth of the world is seeking to buy into bitcoins, to effect a price rise, and thus self-fulfilling the prophecy."




Remember, the ones who have fiat, silver, gold, land, services to offer, etc. do have a YES-vote on bitcoin's price. The only ones who possess the NO-vote in their ballot are the ones who hold bitcoins. We number probably something between a million and 5 million now. You and me cannot do much (except to sell all our bitcoins), when the world lines up to buy them.

When we have 50 million early adapters, not too far in the future from now, bitcoin will enter into bubble territory as its price has risen faster than its adoption, and it starts to be bounded by the finite size of the Earth, whereas the new adopters mistakenly think they are still early adopters (considering that 99% of the world is not in, that is their reasoning), buy in blindly and with a very short time frame, do not understand the math even if I tell it in highschool terms, think that bitcoin goes to the moon (which it doesn't literally do; its real long-term value is bounded), and lose most of their money to the 1% of us.

Then we need to build a new world on that. I wonder what happens to the carrier fleets, will they be converted to 24/7 caribbean cruise ships or what...  Huh
7258  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 25, 2013, 06:54:37 AM
How many % is your trading position, i.e. what percent have you been most short?
I'm not sure the question applies. If it does, I don't know how to answer it. I'm certainly never "short" anything.

I started off by going long - buying a couple thousand USD worth of BTC at $5/bitcoin. Then, as the price moves in one direction or the other, I set exponentially more distant bids and asks from my last trade - buying if the price goes down, selling if it goes up, such that my BTC holdings "equal" an imaginary USD pool which began at the same size as my buy-in money. As the price fluctuates, this equals "buy low sell high" over the long term (and also ensures that, despite my lack of certainty that BTC will reach any particular price, most of my money will be denominated in it in the scenario that it wins big).

Yeah, that is for the lazy one.. I also advocated it previously. But now I think the best strategy is to sell on/after the tipping point of an intraday move, and buy back at a flat rate which is set at the 61% fibonacci retracement point of the previous upmove. Increase this limit bid by a faster hourly rate than usd/btc growth (the latter is 0.50% per hour over the last 8 days, so a 0.7-1.0% should do fine).

Yesterday I sold to strength, rather than after the top, and still made money (=more btc in the evening) with this.

Sniffing the top is the difficult part, buyback is automatic.

By short I mean that you hold fiat, after having the bitcoins. It is not short in a traditional meaning of the word, but it is willingly giving up the bitcoins that you could have held instead.
7259  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 25, 2013, 06:44:32 AM
All the local people contacting me to buy bitcoins seem to think differently.  And this is rural West Virginia, where 98% of people are still stuck 30 years in the past.  MtGox isn't that important.

That's even scarier and more consistent with a bubble.

Yeah. When 0.5% of the world is in, the early adopter phase has ended, and there is a mathematical chance of it being a bubble, given that it is a technology which in all likelihood is beneficial to most, such as the Internet, email, mobile phones and Facebook.

In 1999, 0.5% of the world were Internet literate. The "new paradigm" had arrived. There was a huge bubble on valuations of the internet companies, since people were pumping the money in, ahead of the usefulness curve. A mobile operator was trading at $20,000+ per customer. It was delusional, since you cannot extract that much lifetime value out of a customer in perfect competition or even close to perfect competition. To achieve 10% APR, you would have to make $166 per month profit per customer, which you obviously don't, and never will - I am the top absolute heavy user of mobiles, and I hardly pay that much to them in revenue, corporationwide. $10-$20 revenue per month is the norm.

The bubble crashed and the technology stayed, was developed, and has calmly and bloodlessly revolutionized the world.

Bitcoin at $156 per mBTC, as there is 3mBTC per person in the world, actually more like 1mBTC, since many of the coins are yet to be generated (10MBTC), a good number is lost (~0.5MBTC), and I don't think Satoshi will spend his backbone miner position (1MBTC).

Most bitcoin holders that I know, keep, or plan to keep 80% in paper wallets (6.5MBTC out of 8MBTC). Some (1.5MBTC) play with their stash, though, but these generally lose bitcoins over time, and are replaced by others. It is a giant casino, where nearly everyone wins on fiat and loses on bitcoins, (hope thay have fun).

The active traded stock of bitcoins, 3MBTC, is in accordance with the analysis. Half of it belongs to the trading positions of the long-term holders, and they can increase their stash at several pips per hour. Bitcoin price in the last 8 days has risen 50 pips (0.5%) per hour.

The highest "tear speed", which I define as "increase in Bitcoin market cap"/"net investment demand" can be measured at about 10. Expect "bitcoin shortages" to resume, so that there is no meaningful sell side in the exchanges. "Physical"/OTC premium did skyrocket to 25% in early April, it will go back, and higher.

In my short 7 years career as a silver dealer, physical silver was maximum at about +150% compared to spot. Even now it is about 30-50% over.

I am selling Casascius at 1.50 per BTC1, 6 per BTC5, and I am planning to increase the premium. 3 weeks ago I cleared the Casascius supply of the leading Finnish merchant, because of their terms allowed me to buy the casascius' at 3% over melt, and pay with fiat at the close of the second bank day following (T+2). So, I bought like Saturday morning, paid on Tuesday evening, and made 20% in fiat/BTC rate appreciation, instead of losing the same amount by trying to make my money clear in the exchange.

This kind of madness cannot go on for much longer. The ones making money (like I have sporadically done), are making too much of it, and it is pressuring the supply side of bitcoins.

When I was mentioning the "event horizon" yesterday, it is the point of no return, and we are in it right now. NOW bitcoin is the most undervalued during its history, since the wisest brains in the world cannot think of a scenario, that it would not go to $millions in the bubble pop. Therefore they buy in, in the most epic forward escape that the world has seen so far. Since there is still a 100,000% gain available, and the risk has dropped to virtually zero, all the money in the world tries to enter into bitcoins, and the endgame can be rather quick.

Your wallet is safe. If someone understands and accepts what is written above, he can just buy bitcoins and be rich in a few weeks. If he doesn't, he is not interested or capable in stealing your wallet anyway.

I expected blood in the streets and shortages of food when the fiat economy ends. But we did not see either, when Internet, email, and Facebook proliferated. Perhaps I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling, and even be able to choose the brand, in relative comfort, despite the fact that I own more money than I ever can realistically dole out.

I can make BTC10 or more, every phone call I take, since people want to buy bitcoins with their fiat, gold, silver, cars and whatever they have, and I can just select what I need.

You can call me if you want, my number is +358-50-3235950. You can talk to me for BTC10 per hour, prepaid. Granted, it is much fiat, but why would you care. You mined your blocks solo, and now you can talk to me 5 hours for the price of one. Realistically, if more than 3 people call me per day, I will need to increase the price due to scarcity of my time available, and the fact that I spend most of my day internet trolling anyway and don't have too much interest in making money anymore Grin
7260  Other / Off-topic / Re: rpietila public diary on: April 25, 2013, 06:41:39 AM
I have reserved this for 9.-12.May 2013.

guys, be careful, it's a trap! Wink

"treatments for the adult taste"

I would've loved to come, but I will very likely have to be somewhere else around that time.

Are we allowed to trade the tickets?


Again you are leaking out sensitive PM info you swedish bastard.. Grin

Yes, trading the tickets is allowed, just for the lulz to manifest to the late adopters that a "conference" ticket can actually go to $10,000s when we just send bitcoins to each other.

I am considering, for an additional BTC10 over the ticket, you can send a short wishlist that will be granted to you subject to availability (of the services, not of money, the latter is not limited) For BTC50, you can send a long wishlist.

The last week that I have actively done what I wanted, regardless of price, I have spent perhaps $1,500 in personal expenses, given out $200,000+ of bitcoins, made $30k in trading and fees (this is the most demotivating part right now) and the purchasing power of my bitcoins has increased.

When you have it all, you tend to need very little. Yesterday I spent 60 minutes trying to find water according to my taste. Still it wasn't perfect, but we are getting there... I would pay more for 5 liters of the best water in the world, than for the best champagne. But money cannot buy you good water (for champagne, it does).
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