Yeah. When 0.5% of the world is in, the early adopter phase has ended, and there is a mathematical chance of it being a bubble, given that it is a technology which in all likelihood is beneficial to most, such as the Internet, email, mobile phones and Facebook.

In 1999, 0.5% of the world were Internet literate. The "new paradigm" had arrived. There was a huge bubble on valuations of the internet companies, since people were pumping the money in, ahead of the usefulness curve. A mobile operator was trading at $20,000+ per customer. It was delusional, since you cannot extract that much lifetime value out of a customer in perfect competition or even close to perfect competition. To achieve 10% APR, you would have to make $166 per month profit per customer, which you obviously don't, and never will - I am the top absolute heavy user of mobiles, and I hardly pay that much to them in revenue, corporationwide. $10-$20 revenue per month is the norm.

The bubble crashed and the technology stayed, was developed, and has calmly and bloodlessly revolutionized the world.

Bitcoin at $156 per mBTC, as there is 3mBTC per person in the world, actually more like 1mBTC, since many of the coins are yet to be generated (10MBTC), a good number is lost (~0.5MBTC), and I don't think Satoshi will spend his backbone miner position (1MBTC).

Most bitcoin holders that I know, keep, or plan to keep 80% in paper wallets (6.5MBTC out of 8MBTC). Some (1.5MBTC) play with their stash, though, but these generally lose bitcoins over time, and are replaced by others. It is a giant casino, where nearly everyone wins on fiat and loses on bitcoins, (hope thay have fun).

The active traded stock of bitcoins, 3MBTC, is in accordance with the analysis. Half of it belongs to the trading positions of the long-term holders, and they can increase their stash at several pips per hour. Bitcoin price in the last 8 days has risen 50 pips (0.5%) per hour.

The highest "tear speed", which I define as "increase in Bitcoin market cap"/"net investment demand" can be measured at about 10. Expect "bitcoin shortages" to resume, so that there is no meaningful sell side in the exchanges. "Physical"/OTC premium did skyrocket to 25% in early April, it will go back, and higher.

In my short 7 years career as a silver dealer, physical silver was maximum at about +150% compared to spot. Even now it is about 30-50% over.

I am selling Casascius at 1.50 per BTC1, 6 per BTC5, and I am planning to increase the premium. 3 weeks ago I cleared the Casascius supply of the leading Finnish merchant, because of their terms allowed me to buy the casascius' at 3% over melt, and pay with fiat at the close of the second bank day following (T+2). So, I bought like Saturday morning, paid on Tuesday evening, and made 20% in fiat/BTC rate appreciation, instead of losing the same amount by trying to make my money clear in the exchange.

This kind of madness cannot go on for much longer. The ones making money (like I have sporadically done), are making too much of it, and it is pressuring the supply side of bitcoins.

When I was mentioning the "event horizon" yesterday, it is the point of no return, and we are in it right now. NOW bitcoin is the most undervalued during its history, since the wisest brains in the world cannot think of a scenario, that it would not go to $millions in the bubble pop. Therefore they buy in, in the most epic forward escape that the world has seen so far. Since there is still a 100,000% gain available, and the risk has dropped to virtually zero, all the money in the world tries to enter into bitcoins, and the endgame can be rather quick.

Your wallet is safe. If someone understands and accepts what is written above, he can just buy bitcoins and be rich in a few weeks. If he doesn't, he is not interested or capable in stealing your wallet anyway.

I expected blood in the streets and shortages of food when the fiat economy ends. But we did not see either, when Internet, email, and Facebook proliferated. Perhaps I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling, and even be able to choose the brand, in relative comfort, despite the fact that I own more money than I ever can realistically dole out.

I can make BTC10 or more, every phone call I take, since people want to buy bitcoins with their fiat, gold, silver, cars and whatever they have, and I can just select what I need.

You can call me if you want, my number is +358-50-3235950. You can talk to me for BTC10 per hour, prepaid. Granted, it is much fiat, but why would you care. You mined your blocks solo, and now you can talk to me 5 hours for the price of one. Realistically, if more than 3 people call me per day, I will need to increase the price due to scarcity of my time available, and the fact that I spend most of my day internet trolling anyway and don't have too much interest in making money anymore

Yes, since this is a wrong thread. I know, and see my "last posts by this person" for details.

Not that it mattered, though. Since you earn so much by buy/hold, as Vladimir does, all trading is just a icing on the bonus.

If you want to be well-off, You should try to have more than your share of the key unprintables:

(- Land)
- Gold, 23 grams, currently valued at 7,000mBTC
- Silver, 3ozt (scrap ok), currently valued at 700mBTC
- Bitcoins, 3mBTC, valued at 3mBTC

If even gold and silver are dropping since the money is entering into bitcoin (with a considerable lag though, as often it needs to be converted to fiat in the meantime and a wait of 1-2 weeks), don't you think that USD days are literally numbered?

I mean, of course gold and silver need to drop in bitcoin terms. But their spot is crashing even when denominated in fiat! That will reverse soon.

I think you are right. I have some analysis about the timeframe in my diary. Nobody is after killing you (or me), though. That would not accomplish anything for "them", since the consciousness is spreading all over the world.

Bitcoin economy can only grow with a certain speed though. This speed is fast but it does not exceed 100%/week. Every time we crossed that, it popped and reverted to some previous exp. trendline.

You can gauge the sentiment by following bitcoin street price (eg. localbitcoins.com). When it exceeds $300k, the early adopter phase ends as 0.5-1% of the world is already in. It may go on and end up higher in an epic bubble. The ones that said 2013 is a bubble, will probably end up right. But the pop will be only in $millions.

At that point the price does not matter, but it acts as a testimony to the ones who did not buy in even though they had a chance. Their fortunes will be valued in millibitcoins.

I close my business today. It cannot be stopped any more. The fact that OP is written 10 days ago, indicates to me that the consciousness is expanding at a rate which is higher than the appreciation of the bitcoin price. (In 10 days bitcoin is up <100%, yet number of in-the-know people has gone up by 500% or more).

- Strategies are many, I am trying them out. I did make a net BTC gain yesterday.

- If I thought going net short was sensible in general (it isn't), I would do it at $5,000,000+ per bitcoin.

I have occasionally been net short on fiat.

Do the math.

Random threads give out random results. You need to use an established thread if your intention is to actually gather info.

Sentiment question: Is there anyone on this thread who has enough money?

I would define "enough" as:

- Bitcoin stash's price appreciation exceeds daily expenses by a factor of X
- Therefore no need to work
- Cannot spend it all even if spends 24/7.

SINGULARITY.

I'll soon post to my diary, how you can have unlimited money and give unlimited money to all your friends.

I do it every week, sometimes it gives -100BTC but usually I make money. It's like poker, if you hold the nuts, you win. But it is sound to always go all in with A-A even if the odds are something like 81%. It is +EV nevertheless, and wildly so. Just like bitcoin. Trade responsibly.

Nah it aint no luck, it is a +EV trading strategy. You can increase your trading position coins by 10% per week.

That compounded... soon your trading position is so big as to not able to effectively trade.

Then you start writing on the forum...

Bought back at an average price of $144.

2,000oz minimum.

I am nearly always interested in buying physical silver at below LBMA. Sometimes I want to accumulate at the "standard" premium of 5-10%. Now is this time, since spot is crashed, and street price of 90% coin is 30% over. The arbitrage if you buy .999 silver at spot and sell 90% for 30% profit is glaring.

There is 100,000oz+ 90% silver in Silvervault, which has been accumulated for this very day that allows us to swap it to .999 for a nice gain (10,000-20,000 oz).

Too bad I am too busy to do much about it. But if you want to buy at dealer ask (spot+30%), it is there for grabs. If you want to sell silver at spot, just call me and arrange for the delivery to Northern EU, I can also buy silver in any form anywhere, PM me. If you have paper silver to sell at BELOW spot, PM me.

I can pay fiat, gold, bitcoin.

I have reserved this for 9.-12.May 2013.

The parameters are:
- I think it is a great place to have a meetup.
- I have some ideas, many have suggested ideas. There is plenty of time to discuss them even before the event.
- I have sold 3 tickets, the last was for BTC3, incl. full board.
- I have promised that I will always increase the price of ticket, to preserve the early adaptor advantage. Otherwise the bitcoin's volatility will cause people to delay their decision, which will make organising difficult. Only way out is to credibly state that a newcomer will have to always pay more bitcoins than the previous. This will lead to some people signing up rather quickly, which eases my organizing challenges.
- My current thinking is that 30 people would be the maximum, I am fully content with 6 (the current number of guests + 3 hosts) though.
- Howto allocate the admissions, is my problem.

No need to post your ideas, I have been thinking of all possibilities, it is just that I have to make my decision. I cannot alter it afterwards, since that would be unfair. You better be careful when money is involved. This is the reason that my official invitation has been delayed.

I think today could have been the event horizon for me, I am still evaluating my experience over a good meal and wine. Will be back soon.

It is one of the sanest methods in trading bitcoin, if you want to trade it. Goes like:

- First you invest into Bitcoin all money, which you CAN afford to lose. I would generally suggest no need to put more than $100k even if you had more, since trading with huge bitcoin positions is clumsy. Also if you only now go all in (remember I did last month), it is only fair you don't buy more than 1000 coins but really whatever..

- You put anything between 50-95% of the coins in paper wallet. I suggest about 80-90% is good for most. The wallet is generated securely with an offline computer that is destroyed after printing the private keys (also the printer is). You print out two copies of the private key. You align the A4 sheets together and cut it in half with scissors. Then you have two copies of the beginning of the privkey, and two copies of the ending. You store these keys in such a manner that it is improbable that a thief would get access to one A + one B key and even if he did, you could outspeed him in combining your remaining keys and spending it to a more secure wallet. Also it should be improbable for both A keys to be destroyed simultaneously, ditto for B keys. This is your core position.

- The rest of the bitcoins, the trading position, you store in exchanges. Every time the price shoots up "too fast" (this forum is full of guesses, whether or not this is true in any particular case), you sell some of your bitcoins. Then you have money trapped in the exchange. You set up your buyback price at a given % lower, such as the previous support or something. After a 20% move in 2 hours, it is reasonable to expect a more than 10% recoil.

- Then you decide your "creep rate". The creep, is an hourly percentage, which I suggest to be between 0.1% and 1.0%. You adjust your buyback level upwards every hour by the creep amount. In practice, you have no reason to adjust it any less than 2% at a time. So if your creep is 1.0% per hour, you need to increase your limit order by 2%, every 2 hours. If your creep is 0.1%, you increase it by 2.5% once per day.

- Eventually your limit buy order executes. If you were nimble, you get to increase your bitcoin stash, if not, you lose. I have been able to beat the market, but I am a fulltimer with 16 years stock trading experience. At any rate, you will never lose out completely since you have your money in the exchange after the moment you have sold, until the moment your buy executes. If bitcoin goes to singularity, you have your secure core position, and you can buy the earth with it. Otherwise you eventually buy back. Repeat when appropriate.

- The ladder refers to either the incrementally creeping nature of this method, or it can also refer to an additional tweak where you use several buyback levels spread apart, and after your bihourly reset, you remove the lowest bid, and add a new bid which is higher than any of the outstanding previous bids.

I just got back, what's the price? Should I have bought back already or you want me to do it now?

+1. I want you in my conference.

$10,000B market cap

Long term it is worth no more than $10,000 billion, and this is the most important thing to remember.

DO NOT BUY AT ANYTHING OVER $300K FOR THERE IS A REALISTIC RISK THAT IT IS A BUBBLE AND YOU LOSE.

You still have plenty of time to buy, as short-term anything over 30% per week is unsustainable.

That is 0.15% per hour, folks. Why would you buy after a 30% daily gain. I will not close my short at a profit for sure but I don't think we go to $200 today, LOL.

This is a suitable thread to mention that about 60-90 minutes after this post, I will post an invitation to a Bitcoin Supernode Summit. It will be held in 2 weeks, I am sorry that it is both so soon and so late. I tried my best to find a suitable time and place.

Admission will be hard-limited to 50, and the tickets are both expensive and increase in price over time, to gauge the interest.

You call me "bearish"   Just a week ago you congratulated me for my net gain of BTC1000 over the last week since I was the only bigname bull to actually utter a bearish prediction at over $200, remember