Where is that quote from, aysg76?

There should be a link.. .

In other words:

Link or it did not happen.

No peepics... please.... 


Huh?

It is not a necessary condition that the BTC price is either coming down or that it needs to dip from here.

We have had plenty of no coiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners, traders and/or those inadequately pee pared for UPpity who have gotten fucked (or at least missed their opportunities to get rich as fuck) because they were failing / refusing to adequately pee pare their lil selfies for UPpity because they thought like you... "down before up" is a necessary condition in bitcoinlandia... hahahahaha..

Remember... we are in a bull market, and a 56% correction is pretty damned BIG, and there was two months of fortune (if it can be called that) in which the BTC price largely bounced in a 35% to 50% correction zone.. .and sure, we are still there... for now.. but no guarantees that we are either going to continue to stay in such 35% to 50% correction zone or that we are going to return to such zone in the event that we end up breaking UPpity... by the way, I am still of the position that we cannot really rest assured that our $28,600 bottom is "in" until we get above $46k  - and surely there is still a bit of a distance to travel before getting there (only got to $40,581 so far, as I type this post)....

Also, remember elliottflz65:


Pour one out for that newbie... who had been supposedly seriously contemplating selling and buying cheaper in a bull market that had already experienced a 56% price correction.. and at the time of his/her post very near the bottom of such BTC price correction zone... who knows?  who knows?  but each of us better make sure that we are adequately pee pared for UPpity before we screw around with selling BTC.. especially during a correction in a bull market (even if you happen to be questioning the "bull market" status.. which is what the beartwat manipulators want you to do).

Fuck merits!!!!!!!


Who needs them?



 



Don't be this guy!!!!!!!


The drunk sailor meriter, and now with no smerits ... hahhahahahahha

I know you have a BIG load coming in, but you know what?  "Fuck merits.  Who needs them?"

Huh?  do you even bitcoin?

Just making up shit?

Sure there was a plunge from $65k in mid-April that largely took about a month to play out in mid-May and then has caused the BTC to get as low as $28,600 (a 56% correction) and then to largely range in a correction zone in the $30ks.. (let's call that the 35% to 50% arena) .. .and we are still within that BTC price correction range.

Likely El Salvador will serve as a pretty interesting use case in terms of the various was that having such an option to hold value in bitcoin or in dollars and even to have some quasi-banking abilities for El Salvador citizens/residents (as long as it lasts) will affect them... There might be some abilities for disparate impacts, but people do not necessarily tend to be as dumb as you might be wanting to ascribe them in terms of how they might hold their value, and even if uneducated plebs might not really know what the fuck is Gresham's law, they do tend to know aspect of it by intuition and experience, especially if they live in a society that has quite a bit of changing of values of one asset or currency as compared to other assets and/or currencies, and sure El Salvadoreans might not feel that they are being screwed by the US Dollar so they may well want to keep a decent amount of their value in USD, especially if they hardly have a sufficient quantity of income in order to save significant amounts, but they might also tend to appreciate (with the passage of time - and there is some speculation with this matter too based on historical BTC performance and also projections of BTC future performance) that they might be in better shape if they do try to save and to keep some of their value (to the extent that they are able to) in BTC.

Nice to have options, no?  instead of just projecting that volatility is always going to be bad, and we have seen a decent amount of tendencies in bitcoin that it can be volatile as fuck, but with the passage of time, it has also tended to quite considerably outperform to the upside any other asset or currency in existence, and little bit little, even when people are being misinformed, they are going to see for their selves that there is likely decent security (and even investment abilities) in keeping some of their value in bitcoin and HODL for the longer term (again, if they can).


Yeah.. right...  

I agree with you that the overall population of El Salvador is probably pretty damned uninformed or ill informed about bitcoin, but they are likely going to get a crash course.  Lucky them.

In other words, this seems to be a pretty damed good time to be learning about bitcoin.,. they can learn along with their president and their various members of parliament.. and if they need to tweak along the way, then so be it... the overall sentiment seems to be quite good, but sure there are likely going to be a lot of implementation developments along the way that are good, bad and ugly, and in the meantime, lot's of people learn about bitcoin, about the lightning network, about various services (apps) that are built upon the lightning network and perhaps other unknown unknows that will become known with the passage of time and with the likely developments along the way.

They seem to be pretty damned lucky people from my perspective to have some potential for some ways out of their various fucked up systems with (and relations to) the dollar.  Surely, we will see if the developments are positive for the country economically to cause some more opportunities for people in the country, and of course, if matters do not seem to be going well then there could be some considerations if the system (or applications/implementations) can be tweaked along the way or whether some kind of scrapping of the legislation would be the better course of action.  For sure, they would not be locked into some kind of inevitable train-wreck in the event that they might see that there are possible BIG problems to continue down the course, and if Bukelle's leadership is necessary, he does seem to have 3 more years left in his term of office (they have 5 year terms and he has already been in office for 2 years as of June 1, 2021).


From my perspective, it is way the fuck better to attempt to learn about bitcoin and to focus on bitcoin first before getting caught up in ideas about "blockchain" and "cryptocurrencies", whatever the fuck that is.

It can take a real long time to learn about bitcoin and not get distracted into various nonsense ideas.. and one of the great aspects of El Salvador's law.. at least up until this point, is that it is focused on bitcoin, and was largely influenced by the bitcoin focused developments of bitcoin beach .. and so of course, some of the El Salvadorean leaders seem to be getting some recent lobbying in regards to shitcoins and we have even seen some information circulating regarding how they could end up getting involved in some shitcoins too (including creating their own crypto)... but sure, we will have to see how some of that might develop and whether it might cause some problematic applications of their bitcoin law that seems to be bitcoin focused in its current form.


Even your formulation is misleading, bryant  (o.k.. when I read further down, I see that the misleading aspect of your formulation of the question is part of the point that you are wanting to make).

For sure, there is an obligation for businesses to accept bitcoin (except if they are technically incapable of it), but they do not have to hold any value in bitcoin whatsoever.

Another implementation likelihood is that El Salvador is likely going to be involved in trying to get businesses in a position in which they are "technically capable" of accepting bitcoin.  Of course, it could be argued that it may well be much better for a business to try to get to a position in which they are technically capable of accepting bitcoin, but surely there might be some businesses that do not want to get to a position in which they are technically capable of accepting bitcoin.  Surely, the BIGGER businesses are going to have more difficulties in trying to squirm out of accepting bitcoin.. even though, as we all already know, they have no obligation whatsoever (at least not so far) to keep even one iota of value in bitcoin.. and probably it would be many years before those kinds of capitalization requirements might become feasible - even if the El Salvador government does seem to be creating some of their own systems that require some bitcoin capitalization requirements - and it seems that those capitalization requirements for themselves (I think a trust or something like that that was created) in order to assist with bitcoin implementation facilitation matters.


I guess we are considering some of the same issues in which better formulations of questions or issues can help to better understand what is actually happening with the vagueness sometimes actually causing people to come to the wrong conclusions or even for the information gathered to be less accurate than it could be through the formulation of better questions or framing of issues.
 

Cannot disagree with your assessments here... the ways of the world frequently comes through a lot of misleading in regards to a lot of matters whether we are talking about history, current events or even speculations regarding probable future events.

Frequently, people speak in generations.. which is 20-30 years rather than "in our lifetimes" because of the need to account for various age differences.. but surely, if someone is in his/her 20-30s, he might consider a life time of 40-60 years remaining...

Seems to me that we need to consider whether sub-$30k is ever going to be reached again in shorter timelines, so I would feel a lot more comfortable considering that the "bottom is in" once the BTC price goes above $46k.... and even then we would have to see where the cycle goes from there and whether $64,895 ends up getting breached or higher price points such as $100k or getting into the $200-$300k or getting in the $300-$600k range or the most bullish of scenarios that would be supra $600k for this cycle.

In other words, I am not prepared to assert that the bottom is in until we go above $46k... even if the $5k price spike does feel pretty good, and you will rarely find me complaining about the creation of UPpity cushion.. furthermore, these times are demonstrating why it was important to have been continuing to buy BTC during the dip, which so far has lasted a bit more than 2 months... whether it is over or not, or this is a fake out or not, only time will tell, so in that regard the next week or two might give us some clues whether we can break above $46k or no?

Anyone of us can be guilty of thinking that we know more about a topic than we do, yet suggesting that bitcoiners have high susceptibility for dunning kruger does not seem fair.

You tend to be so inclined to dish-out backhanded denigrations of bitcoiners, and perhaps you have not learned yet Richie, that Bitcoin is not merely about making sure that the technicals are all correct or even understood by the masses of investors (whether they be accumulators, miners, merchants or investors in infrastructure or some other categories), but it is about various sound money principles (resiliencies.. and made to stave off government and status quo attacks through innovative decentralized incentives) that seem to have been upheld pretty damned well, so far in bitcoinlandia.. lots of us do not understand bitcoin, but it still seems to be a god-damned good investment for laymen...

So many times in history that laymen do not have opportunities to front-run the already rich in terms of investment opportunities.. but in this case, we have been seeing those kinds of opportunities for regular peeps to front-run the status quo rich.. and the opportunities are still alive and regular peeps do not need to know everything about bitcoin in order to be able to invest into it and furthermore, regular peeps do not need to know some of the very amazing technicalities in bitcoin in order to know enough to invest and to have investment and participation strategies and techniques.

... and sure the battles are not yet over.. but to suggest that a lot of us might be dummies about bitcoin because we do not sufficiently understand some of the technicals, seems to be just wanting to denigrate bitcoiners for the sake of it.. and if bitcoin keeps progressing, it is going to take many generations for people to really understand bitcoin or at least to see bitcoin as it evolves (presuming that it continues to exist and to gravitate value into it).

You are thinking that there could be some resistance before $38k?  and then smooth sailing straight to $70k, right?

Or might there be some more resistance before getting there?

Actually, sure any time that we experience a decently-sized correction there can be some difficulties in getting this here ship turned around, but then once it gets some momentum, then that change-in-direction momentum can be fun, too.

I am not even saying that I really know where the resistance points might be, so sure.. climbing slot by slot might not be a bad way of framing the matter, either....

So, I guess you have backed me into such somewhat sameness logic, Philip.

Since you like cats so much:

For sure, I am not suggesting to give up, and on a personal level, I feel good that at least we are not talking about shitcoins, so there is that positive angle, no?


Hm?  I don't know the mechanics for sure.  I would suspect that there are going to be quite a few rebalances of issues in regards to how BTC changes incentives, and surely could take many decades (generations) to play out, so in the mean time on a personal level, if you are able to get richie from BTC, whether a stash of 0.21 BTC or greater, you may likely have more influence (and resources), too in terms of attempting to influence discussions or attempting to put into practice any measures that you believe to be going in a better direction. 

For sure, bitcoin does not get rid of any kind of free-rider problem that exists with the funding of any seemingly public goods, and probably for that reason government is going to always serve some kind of role in attempting to both identify and provide balancing measures in regards to what are considered public goods.



Is that message directed inwardly or outwardly?  Which belly button is it?

Maths do not change that much, at least from my understanding as a mathematician lay person.


Oh?

You are much deeper than maths and sciences, you are into application.. which surely peeps are not going to agree upon, and sure maybe bad choices are made from time to time.

Sometimes I feel that I am too old too get caught up in a lot of that stuffs, and I was much more involved in some of those concerns about justices and injustices in some of my earlier years.. .. but sure, we all live somewhere.. and sometimes we might have concerns about some of the various injustices in the world, whether referring to environment or even the use of labor and capital... Is bitcoin going to fix any of it?  or does some of it relate to this topic?  You meanie.

By the way, with all this recent BTC price action, we might even be able to get to $38k in the coming days.. maybe?  I personally consider that the resistance would be in the lower $40ks, like $42k/$43k,. but maybe I am just too optimistic about our current price range in the consideration that there might well be resistance before $42k/$43k.. and especially if there is some kind of merit in the claims of our possibly being in a bear market.

Another aspect is that I doubt that I am being overly optimistic anyhow, because I am not going to rest assured about the bottom being in (in the case that it is in) until prices reach the $46k arena... Is that even possible?  Would be nice to see a few shorts get burned.. in our progression to the $46k territory to test things out... and then yeah.. going straight to $46k might cause less confidence in terms of an ability to go straight up, but I still would not mind watching the price go up there and then witnessing (again) how so many fucktwats are shocked.. shocked again and again, even though we have never left the bull market, but some folks were thinking that we had left.... we will see.  We will see... I might be getting too anxious.. someone stop me.

I don't feel like having my face melted, but I would not mind watching some of that.  

Call me selfish, if you will.


Even though I looked at the tweet and glanced through the linked Chainalysis website explanations of how they got their numbers, I am not sure whether I understand the significance of those interesting shades...

Presumably the shades are going to get darker with the passage of time.. perhaps China will get lighter from the rumors, but who knows about China?  They get a lot of blame for bitcoin manipulation.. and banning of aspects of bitcoin... but they never really seem to be getting out of bitcoin or its measures of adoption.

@Saidasun wants a hat too... but I suppose that he needs to give you some kind of image or idea to work with, no?... especially if anyone wants a homer original rather than either a knock off or some cheap-ass homemade wannabe nonsense...  

Edit:  Whoops.. looks like I had previously missed the post in which he proclaimed that he is already considering making a proper hat request.

I did not know that there was such a thing.. but.. hey.. let's see how it plays out in the coming hours.  

Or will it take that long?  asking for a friend.

The bliss of happiness right before the unhappy ending.

Seems fitting to me.

hahahahaha

Personally, I consider your assessment of a couple years to get to the blue line to be overly pessimistic and bearish.

In other words, bitcoin gives few to no shits about lines on a paper (or computer screen for that matter), and sure an upward portion of this particular cycle (that we are in) might be drawn out beyond this calendar year and maybe into the second or third quarter (seems a stretch) of 2022, but the odds are pretty great that we are not only going to meet and exceed the blue line (decent chances of this calendar year) we are likely to meet or exceed the red line too... maybe this calendar year, but I personally consider it more likely to draw out into next year a wee bit, based on what has been going on and likely recognizing and appreciating that bears have been giving a seemingly decently strong battle in this particular correction.. that seems way more effective than it should be.

But hey, if you get a fucking 6.5x BTC price appreciation in 7-ish months coupled with considerable outrageous exuberance in some of the 14-year old snot-nosed markets, a lot of froth (and weak hands) have been created (or entered) to allow for some of the outrageous correction levels that we have been experiencing for a couple of months now in the midst of what still seems to be a bull market.

As you outlined jaysabi, about a snowball's chance in hell of removing him, absent some major-ass screw up and getting himself and/or company into criminal trouble or something like that - otherwise, if he plays within the parameters of his own discretion which is almost complete in the sense of: "if you don't like what I do, get the fuck out then" kind of power, then he's pretty much untouchable.

Don't get me wrong, he seems to be a quite likable guy and seems to be a guy who is interested in seeking better and creative ways of doing things.  So, it would hardly be torture to be working with him (or under him, if that might well be a better description?).  

I personally was annoyed by his seemingly bullying approach in an ESG like podcast/zoomcall/whatever conference (on July 14), and even though Saylor seems to be way smarter than Marty Bent, he did come off as patronizing and even using of unfair kinds of personalizing arguing tactics (bordering on bullying /hoarding the topic) when disagreeing with Marty on some of the disadvantages of the work or intended work of the ESG bitcoin council or whatever they are calling it these days.  You can see that nearly 2 hour discussion, here.

Edit:  Fixed quotes in my first paragraph.. whoops

Oh thought that the GBTC premium was supposed to be narrowing, recently; however according to that chart the premium has stayed pretty flat and does not seem to have narrowed  - --- from eyeballing it, the data therein may only go to the end of June-ish.. I am not sure...

I have been wondering how BIG of a candle does it take to burn a few shorts?

Remember that we were just down to $29,296 about 2.5 days ago, so there may have already been a decent number of shorts that were already burnt - and surely there had been quite a bit of downity talk in the past two days----

Sorry for your loss elliottflz65.. hope you did not sell too much of your 0.21 BTC stash at $29,800-ish....   Well, not really.  


I know that it is a bit of wishful-thinking to get $10k or $12k in the next 24 hours or so.. or even to get 3x in the next 3 months, but based on some of our recent levels of FUD spreading, I could appreciate that enough shorting fuel has been created to incentivize the lower scenario.. and the more elaborate scenario of 3x in 3 months would just be for additional funzies... a kind of stair-stepping event.


The extreme down scenarios do inspire the placing of high leveraged shorts, so we might need to be thankful towards any of that fuel that has already been used and might still be present to get us a bit more of a weekend of reckening.. if such a thing might be possible?

I am NOT going to rest assured about the bottom (of $28,600) being "in" until we get above $46k - and more than a mere spike would be nice.



Yes.. thanks for that chart, UnDerDoG81.  The chart shows that our current BTC price (or at least the price from a couple of days ago was at the greatest level of deviation from the stock-to-flow model, and for sure there are a lot of folks (likely prematurely) proclaiming the stock to flow model to be ded, and part of their justification for such ded proclamations of the S2F model is because the extent of the deviation (Plan B labels as deflection)... so we will see if it is really ded or not?  We will see.  jajajajaja

Maybe you better stop laughing and read a wee bit more of the thread?

The actions and involvement of Microstrategy in BTC is way more beyond an assessment of what the topic heading says.



Maybe you wished to simplify matters like that?  Remember this thread is a year old, so the initial announcement of how MSTR got started into bitcoin is ONLY part of the story.. but it remains the beginning of the story and the beginning of their CEO taking a pretty damned public stance and getting involved in several areas - not limited to some of his free seminars in early 2021 to help to provide free models for companies to get involved in bitcoin..


You are talking about MSTR? or companies similarly situated?  How high are the odds that BTC will go below $10k?  Are you considering that your generalization is regarding companies getting in after September 2020, and therefore presumably their average cost per BTC would likely be higher than $10k and there are even some with average prices above $50k.. so yeah, some will panic, some will HODL and some will buy more.  Some will tell what they did and some will not. 

Actually, there are a variety of scenarios including that the bottom of $28,600 might already be in or there might be a spike that goes below $28,600 or there might be some sustainable correction below $28,600.  It is surely not obvious that we are currently in a bear market.. and probably the odds are against it, even if there are quite a few folks considering that BTC is in a bear market or might be in a bear market.  We are going to see, aren't we?  Another question is whether the top of $64,895 is "in" for this particular cycle... so sure $64,895 might well be broken in this calendar year or maybe even in the next calendar year (referring to 2022).. what is more likely? 

Sub $16k or supra $65k?  Of course, the BTC price could go either way, but seems to me that peeps who are ONLY betting on down or even placing a very high probability to those various down scenarios are likely to get into considerable trouble. Of course, if you have extreme bets on the down scenarios and you are still hedged for UP that is NOT as bad as NOT having much if any preparation for UP.  Historically, in bitcoinlandia we have witnessed a whole hell of a lot of peeps who had been talking a BIG down game, but not adequately prepared for UP... so lots of folks missed great opportunities to make a lot of money by inadequately preparing for UP (which might not have even had been a very big bet in order to profit stupendously). Is this time different?  I have my doubts, but sure there are likely a considerable number of people who are still not adequately prepared for UP.

Saylor/MSTR and some like minded companies and individuals are not failing/refusing to prepare for UP... so either this calendar year or the coming calendar year, we will see how they fare, won't we?


I doubt that "we all" have the same memory in terms of how you described the situation.  I imagine that you are referring to the March 2020 liquidity event?  Surely there were some extremes with a lot of markets, and there are a variety of reasons for markets reversing and who acted first to buy back.  Some folks sold and some did not... some bought during that liquidity event, so it seems a bit problematic for you to be suggesting that there was any kind of exact ordering of events that might not have caused some individuals (including bitcoiners) to react differently and even to learn from that situation differently from the lesson that you are seeming to want to proclaim..

For sure, many bitcoiners are not going to take your description of the situation or the lessons to be learned as the same as you would like to describe, and sure lessons can be learned from those kinds of events, and if we bring this whole matter back to Michael Saylor and MSTR, Saylor is proclaiming that he did not really have his eyes on bitcoin during the March 2020 liquidity event, but circumstances surrounding that event inspired him to look more into bitcoin.. so sure, we could get another one of those kinds of liquidity events, but the circumstances are a bit different at this particular time, so even if we were to get some kind of similar situation, the passage of events and even the passage of nearly 1.5 years is going to cause the markets to react in different ways than they did in March 2020, and sure, maybe the picture that you are wanting to paint, currently, Princejebs is to suggest that selling some BTC now is a good move in order to prepare - and I doubt that very many peeps would agree with that kind of implication, especially since we already had a 56% correction..and about 2 months in our current 40% to 50% correction range... so selling seems nearly the opposite of what might be prudent at this point... We will see?  We will see.

Merely putting in a phone number could be considered sufficiently anonymous, no?  I think that would be for authentication of transaction purposes, and sure technically, they might not even need to do that level of identification... because if you are buying BTC, you would give cash, so should be pretty immediate to receive the BTC, but if you are selling BTC, there may well need to be a couple of confirmations minimum that venders are going to prefer.  I remember when I used to buy BTC with strangers, I tended to be o.k. with one confirmation.. but I would NOT give over any cash without at least one, and I never felt any necessity to have to receive more than one  - but I suppose if there is some kind of contention going on such as in August 2017 with the hard fork issues.. or maybe if there might be some other possible attack that might be attempted--- for example if there were an actual 51% attack that might be going on through Chinese miners, then maybe a few confirmations would be the better practice in those kinds of circumstances.

At some point, competition should bring down those fees - even 5% to 10% seems excessive, absent some kind of great market volatility.... Would be nice if there were some systems like local bitcoins or even ways that buyers/sellers can get directly in contact with each other to do in person transactions in cash.. but when I used to use local bitcoins, my lowest fee would usually be 5%, and there were times that I had gotten up to 12% when it seemed that many of the other buyer/sellers disappeared in 2017/2018 for a few months... and then I had to disappear after a while too because I was like one of the only ones left in my area.. and I just felt like it was too risky for me to be dealing with so many seeming crazies (during that time).. and I could not really bring myself to charge more than 12% or so (maybe I did a wee bit higher on one or two transactions, but it was not comfortable for me)... so I just stopped dealing with strangers (and only did buy/sells with prior customers) and continued transacting with strangers after the market settled down.. maybe it was about a 6 week break in December 2017/January 2018.. maybe also partly my concerns of the ongoing spam attack at that time too.. and then fees were so high on the network as well and I had already had some transactions that were stuck for a decently long time too during that time.


Perhaps.. Even becoming a strong hand or otherwise not doing really stupid shit that causes you to devolve into fantasy land is not a given.. There are some members who seemed to have been developing strong hand techniques and then they just panic or go into some other la la land dumb shit, so for sure no real guarantees.

I am also kind of thinking that it takes years to become a strong hand.. perhaps at least a full cycle, and maybe even a couple of cycles depending on your circumstances, of course.