There is more to a market than fixing price. What matters to the manipulators, is whether they actually need to cede the physical possession of the gold to the buyer. Even if the gold is physical, if the buyer does not take delivery, it can still be used as part of the fractional reserve.

Then there is volume: You can try to convince people that gold's value has dropped, by giving it out for a lower price than would be the case without your actions. The silver market was inundated with actual, physical silver, coming from the manipulators' controlled holds, repeatedly several times post-1865. The demonetization of silver was a glut of physical silver dumped to the market on purpose. But you can only do this if you have the metal, and you are willing to part with it. TPTB do not hold gold religiously, they may dump it to burn speculators, if they want, given opportune time. While dumping, they probably don't need to lose control of more than 10% of their physical holdings, but they can completely destroy the price for years to come.

In 2008 the actual value of gold was higher than the controlled "physical" price, because the seller was unwilling to sell at the "official price". Behind the scenes, many things happened.

The situation was even more pronounced in silver, I could buy from some refineries etc., some silver for the "official price" of <$9/oz. Some of them knew I was playing the game, ready to publish if they refuse to sell, some others were probably ignorant of the whole thing. For them, the scrap supply was steadily coming and they just bought and sold according to the LBMA.

But I could sell all the silver that I managed to buy, for 35%-50% more, which was the street price (it never changed, just the "official price" crashed and recovered in 2008-2009) and I made my fortune. Of course it wasn't risk free, at one point all my property was confiscated by the government of Finland etc. Making money is not forbidden, speaking out is was. I don't believe I am in any danger now, since everything I say is already public information and the gold cartel does not have a way to win the battle with crypto. (If it does, I don't know what it is, and that makes me harmless since I cannot prevent something that I don't believe exists  )

I control about 50 ounces of gold, just in case it will retain its importance. Never sell out anything. Never go short anything. If you stick to these, and possess a certain intelligence, you will minimize risks, and likely become very wealthy. Also, quit reading newspapers and watching TV and believing anything anyone says. Be wary for everything that was invented between 1913-2013, the "dark ages" of humanity. Preferably live in old houses and definitely eat organic food. You will live longer.

The more this kind of people exist in the world, the less TPTB can do anything about it. And if we keep them in check and just live our lives as we want to, isn't this the whole point of the exercise? Soon they will join us. 

Julian Assange confirms my views (no, in fact I confirm his, and act on them...):


You will soon have an opportunity to buy bitcoins for 1/100 of their reasonable long term value!

But why wait, as you will be able to buy them for <1/1000 now? 

By that time we are overextended, and a recoil is due. Just like after the 7 consecutive red candles.

Buy low. Bitcoin is anyway headed to $300k, or zero. What exactly do you gain, by momentum trading?

The enlightening part is the poster's age, which unfortunately prevents him from understanding anything at all concerning how the world works. As long as you need to spend your days in schools undergoing brainwash, you have pretty little energy to think of anything meaningful.

Never before in the history of mankind, has this skill come so handy.

Wtf "skill", excel just churns out the numbers, "it almost isn't sporting, is it".

124/120 gives you 3.3% per day.

With such boring rate, we will reach my target of $300k by...

...Christmas?

Yes. This year.

If Bitcoin continues its exponential trend of 26% value appreciation per month, it will reach the marketcap of gold sometime in 2016. Actually, 2012 was an aberration of the exponential trend (too slow). If we leave it out (it was ridden with scams and hacks, in addition to quiet accumulation by the by-now bitcoin richest people), we will be at $300 in less than 2 years.

For the bitcoin real economy, 30% or more per month is a little bit of a stretch. We were already experiencing the stretch 2 weeks ago: some people including me, got totally stunned because of the rapid value appreciation, and gave up working on the infrastructure that is required to keep up the growth. But Bitcoin corrects itself with unbelievable speed. I think we have a chance to resume the trend and take the old ATH sometime in May.

The infrastructure is also getting better at a speed of perhaps 20% per month, and picking up. I will have a fully functional (people, software, hardware, legal, financial) command center a month from now. Then the bitcoin network can no more be destroyed, since I alone can dev and run it, if all the others fail in the entire world (<- which, of course, I don't regard as probable, LOL). Expect more such supernodes to pop up at breathtaking speed in the weeks and months from now.

It is a far cry to believe that the current legal system can somehow adopt Bitcoin. A more probable scenario would be a complete dismantling of huge current power structures, such as the U.S. Administration.

It is helpful to think, the Soviet Union also dismantled itself 22 years ago. Now, that one was followed by a period of looting, but this time I do not expect such to happen. The information density in the world has grown exponentially ever since then - now we are heading towards a period of unbelievable personal freedom, liberty and prosperity, coupled with decreasing pollution and resource usage, if the command structures that hold sway over most of the world, just decide to end themselves.

If bitcoiners will be let to form their own legal systems, the real bills question can very well be settled in the next 2 years, before the currency stabilizes anyway. (As long as we are in the value appreciation phase, the real bills will have no chance to function.) If the P-T-B act to prevent this, the price of 1 bitcoin will easily overshoot to $millions range, as civilized trade will be difficult, and hoarding will be the main function of bitcoins.

I will be arranging a conference dedicated to this, probably in June. Admission will be limited, so keep an eye on this.

There would be no need for deposit insurance, if the banks offered 100% backed current accounts.

This is similar to Mt.Gox, who are liable to hold 100% reserve for all the USD deposited there, and obviously cannot pay interest.

These would serve the general populace. If someone wants to give his money to fractional reserve banking, it would be better if he realizes that it is a conscious choice to take risk, and he can lose it all.

The system in place now has used up its trust capital, and deserves and is destined to fail. Everyone holding bank balances denominated in fiat will lose most if not all of their purchasing power in the following 10 years.

Care to reveal your average entry point in 1-4/2013?

Mine is about $75.

I have never seen him in real life. Many years back I wanted to have him come over to Finland to give a speech, and we had some contact concerning the plan. I was affiliated with a university back then. I think the visit would not have been the best return for his effort, so I don't regret that it never happened. Also I always wanted to go to his academy, but did not have the time. Well, since he is still alive, perhaps we'll have a chance to meet soon... Do you know, what does he think about Bitcoin, and does he realize that his theories can be applied to it?

The public articles have been duly digested also here 

So, I can vouch for you, for speaking the pure and unadulterated truth concerning real bills. It will be a kickass financial application when we get there!

Well, I believe bitcoins will always be tradable to gold and vice versa Too bad for holders of inferior quality toilet paper.

Yeah. I was surprised to see a weekly negative  It really took a second leg down, something which I didn't anticipate.  That we are currently behind a whole 19 days of gains, boggles me. 

To score a monthly negative, we would need to close below $95 in the end of this month. That would be a possible hint that a bear market (or even a correction/consolidation period) has indeed commenced.

$95 in 10 days. Not impossible, but a rather slim chance. I'd give 25-30% for that happening.

If not, then good bye with your bear market, suckers you uninformed You'll have plenty of time to wise up, buy back, and still become filthy rich. The Bitcoin Bull is not going to the moon overnight, but it will certainly dilute you out of the bulk of your holdings if you try to trade it meanwhile with inappropriate information.

Of course not. Welcome to Estonia, the Byzant of the North. 

As you can see, I employed quite few sources, just shot from the hip. What can be deducted from my analysis (given enough insight) is that a mere speculation of anything happening, and the following short squeeze on physical bitcoins, will not cause a rise in bitcoin's value, rather a fall of it.

Preposterous? No. As you withdraw physical from the market, the discount rate rises. The rise in discount rate is punishing you, since you give up a larger gain than would otherwise be the case, when holding bitcoins instead of holding real bills. The discount rate should be about 2% APR in the base case, so you do not have an incentive to try to corner the bitcoins. If you do, you enrich the others in your own expense. It is like buying high, selling low. And you don't have enough money anyway when BTC1 is valued to equal a suburban house...

When the population actually reaches 15 billion, this may coincide with the rise of purchasing power of 1 bitcoin, but it will happen over so many years that you will die of boredom first.

Understanding the exact mechanisms, how the great depression was caused, is a topic of deeper study, although I think professor Fekete is correct.

LOL I should have gone long bitcoins following the publication of my analysis, I kind of expected the price would rise  

Daytrading is difficult, though [EDIT: values in quote converted to mBTC, as is the norm here]:

Daytrading takes discipline. I followed the bitcoin exchange rate sporadically for 2.5 years before selling any. Selling a bitcoin is tough speculation, there are very few people in this world who have made money selling bitcoins. Most money is made by buying them.

I agree with some posters above, there are great opportunities for daytrading/swing trading constantly present. But skill is required. Today we watched the rally with my broker, and I had instructed him to sell BTC1,000 aggressively to the thinning volume followed by the turn in Bid/Ask ratio, before the price turns down, or immediately after it does. Then buy back at 61% fibonacci retracement with a limit order.

Although we were spot on (61% fibonacci from 13643-9500 is $111.16, which would have enabled us to buy back the position in 60-90 minutes after the sale at anything between 10-20% profit), the trade never materialized.

- My broker had been away for 15 minutes, just when it was starting to turn. If you work 40 hours per week, you miss 76% of the positions.
- The sell signal was not clear enough in the beginning.
- The volume was not there after it was clear enough.
- I called my broker when the fall was intensifying, distracting him
- I canceled the plan when we had already hit $124ish, because I deemed a 10% profit potential too small. From the hindsight, I made a mistake. Should have sold anyway.

So we made exactly BTC0 today. I forbad any additional trading, because when excited, you make mistakes. And excited we were after busting this one 

Thank you. This is one of the best posts I've read today.

I want to share my secret with you. This gives me confidence to buy and hold bitcoins. Instead of making money myself, I want to make the dream come true. The universe has that dream, so it will be fulfilled regardless, I just feel it is my place to be right now.

A ruling by Estonian tax authorities TODAY, so a hot new info:
- Bitcoins are not subject to VAT in Estonia

As you combine this with the little-known secret:
- Estonian corporate tax is 0%, the lowest in EU


You for the first time in history have the optimum jurisdiction for bitcoin trading, and soon the volatility will be gone, as more and more businesses flock in to stabilize the market. I am already there, and will start employing my "price stabilization war chest" of BTC2,000.

I can help you get started for EUR 2,000 fixed fee + EUR 500 per month including manager and bookkeeping. You get to trade legally to your heart's content, paying 0% in taxes. Full package, PM me.


Soon, brother, soon

+1 

Oh no please, that's why I said read the analysis first. Adding 8 billion people will likely not change the outcome.