Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Miz4r]

People have become more cautious since the big crash, so 'bubbles' pop earlier but will also crash less hard. Hopefully this will lead to more stability and less panic buying because they know a correction will soon follow if it goes up too fast.

[DougTanner]

Good morning! Crazy night we just had.

Still looks bullish as hell, resistance has moved above $140.

[xorglub]

Yes, small rally from the $110 low, hit twice, not broken. Next stop $120 ?

[San1ty]

Good morning! Crazy night we just had.

Still looks bullish as hell, resistance has moved above $140.

Where can I get those beautiful charts?

Edit: Got it nvm .

[Richy_T]

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

[Richy_T]

As I said, if you believe that chart that was being bandied about, this is the return-to-the-mean which is about correct at 120. I'm withholding my judgement but I suspect we'll see a steady climb until we get some more news of governments doing something crazy. Which could be any time...

[thoughtfan]

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC  turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been:  The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher.  It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.

[stuckprocess]

Cool graph, gives noobs like me a little understanding.

[DougTanner]

It just keeps bouncing off $112.

[ShroomsKit]

Looks like it's going lower now :/

[wobber]

Looks like it's going lower now :/

Don't jump so quick. We will eventually go very low but so far it seems market has some momentul. We'll see the next days.

[giszmo]

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC  turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been:  The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher.  It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.

Crap. If you solo mine, you can also be lucky and earn more than with a pool. It's just more variance and being more lucky now or less is absolutely the same now and later in the game but later your odds of finding 2 blocks per day might be half of today.

[rpietila]

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

[giszmo]

[...]

Hmm, not quite right neither …
[/s]
Edit:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
  weighted_bid_price+=bid.price_per_BTC * bid.volume_USD;
}
weighted_bid_price/=total_bid_sum;
for(Ask ask:asks) {
  weighted_ask_price+=ask.price_per_BTC * ask.volume_BTC;
}
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum;


Would that work?

What if... I would offer 1BTC for 1 Billion Dollars?

You would have to wait 5 years for your order to get filled

Ok, seriously, there has to be some nice measure. If the average bid/ask doesn't work, take the mean bid/ask:

Code:

for(Bid bid:bids) {
  bidSum += bid.volumeUSD;
  if (bidSum >= 0.5 * totalBidSum) {
    meanBidPrice = bid.pricePerBTC;
    break;
  }
}

for(Ask ask:asks) {
  askSum += ask.volumeBTC;
  if (askSum >= 0.5 * totalAskSum) {
    meanAskPrice = ask.pricePerBTC;
    break;
  }
}
meanSpreak = meanAskPrice – meanBidPrice;

[giszmo]

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up

I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.

[rpietila]

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up

I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.

Oh no please, that's why I said read the analysis first. Adding 8 billion people will likely not change the outcome.

[Miz4r]

This is crazy, total bid sum has gone through the roof. I think we should prepare for another rally upwards soon, it can't stay at 110-115 much longer now.

[DougTanner]

This is crazy, total bid sum has gone through the roof. I think we should prepare for another rally upwards soon, it can't stay at 110-115 much longer now.

It's where it was yesterday at this time, so yeah I think up is still very likely.



Yup.

[GreekGeek]

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

A few months ago I did the same assumption
"Bitcoins becomes as popular as gold"
according to my calculation

there have been ~17,000 tones of gold mined in total (Wikipedia)
there will be 21 million BTCs mined in total

I came up with a price of 450,000 EUR or USD  (can't remember which but who cares!  )

Our numbers are very close

lets say 375,000 USD----> then---> EUR          

[Geist]

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

A few months ago I did the same assumption
"Bitcoins becomes as popular as gold"
according to my calculation

there have been ~17,000 tones of gold mined in total (Wikipedia)
there will be 21 million BTCs mined in total

I came up with a price of 450,000 EUR or USD  (can't remember which but who cares!  )

Our numbers are very close

lets say 375,000 USD----> then---> EUR          

I love you guys.