Date : 17th December 2020.

Sterling & the BoE Preview.



GBPUSD, Weekly

The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened for its two-day December policy meeting yesterday, with the announcement out today (12:00 GMT). No changes to policy settings is the universal expectation, which would leave the repo rate at 0.10% and the QE total unchanged at GBP 875 bln. The central bank is clearly keeping a close eye on Brexit talks, and with a deal looking much more likely than at the same time last week, the central bank is likely to hold its horses, especially as vaccinations offer a bright spot for next year. Things can still go wrong though and the BoE will want to keep its options open for now. A no-deal situation would put the BoE into crisis-response mode, and would increase the chance of the central bank implementing a negative interest rate policy. Still, the BoE’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) affirmed on Friday that UK banks are able to withstand the shock of no-deal on top of the impact of the Covid pandemic. For many a negative interest rate policy in the UK is not the antidote and should be kept firmly in the toolbox, however, as with the protracted Brexit Withdrawal agreement and the down-to-the-wire trade deal (or no-deal), anything is possible and never rule anything out.

Sterling has the bid currently and expectations are that something will be agreed and the final “fishing” issue can be put to bed. Last week, EU sources talked of a deal by December 18 (tomorrow), which still provides enough time for draft legislation to be approved by year end. Then earlier this week stories started to circulate of “partial” ratification. The fudge continues.

Sterling remains bid versus the weaker USD and JPY, on the back foot versus the Antipodeans, moving higher versus the CAD & CHF and back to test 90.00 versus the Euro. The new 2020 high for Cable and the break and breach of 1.3500 could see an extension to initial 1.3680 and 1.4000 in the weeks ahead, should the Greenback continue to unwind. Key support is the 20-week moving average at 1.3100 and the 200-week moving average at the key psychological 1.3000.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 16th December 2020.

FX Update – December 16 – Perky PMIs & a weaker USD.



EURUSD, H1

Eurozone & UK Dec. PMIs were generally stronger than expected, with the exception of UK Services.  EU Services sentiment in particular rebounded, even in Germany, which is going into a stricter form of lockdown today, which will see shops closing. The Eurozone Services PMI still suggests contraction at 47.3, but that is a marked improvement compared to the reading of 41.7 in November. Manufacturing sentiment rose to 56.6 from 55.3, which left the composite at a 2-month high of 49.8, which effectively suggests stagnation rather than contraction. Markit commented that due to the improvement in December, the fourth quarter downturn is looking less steep than initially feared. Still, as Markit also highlighted – while the prospect of vaccinations is underpinning future expectations, in the near term the environment remains challenging for many consumer-facing companies.



In the UK Markit noted that “The UK economy returned to growth in December after the lockdown-driven downturn seen in November, adding to signs that the hit to the economy from the second wave of virus infections has so far been far less harsh than the first wave in the spring.” The recovery lacked vigour, however, as the service sector remained under particular strain, contracting marginally again as ongoing social distancing measures due to tiered lockdowns continued to hit many parts of the economy. Manufacturing numbers were 57.3 vs 55.9 with last month’s number being increased to 55.6, while the more important Services slipped below the key 50.0 level to 49.9 and missed expectations of 50.5, with last month’s data also being upgraded to 47.6, but remaining historically very low.



The USDIndex has remained heavy, testing a new 32-month low at 90.05. EURUSD has concurrently been holding firm, breaching its 32-month highs at 1.2178, to push to 1.2210. USDJPY, now amid its fourth down day out of the last five, has ebbed to a five-week low at 103.25. As we have noted before, real interest rate differentials are imparting a bias for the Yen to gain on the Dollar, albeit  modestly. The nine-month lows, seen last month at 103.17-19, are back in scope. There looks to have been a degree of position trimming in CADJPY, which has been a popular long lately, being a strong correlate of the reflation theme in global markets. The cross is showing a decline of nearly 0.5% on the day so far. USDCAD, meanwhile, has lifted back above 1.2700 to 1.2745 after yesterday printing a 32-month low at 1.2686. While oil prices have been remaining perky, with Brent benchmark prices sustaining gains above $50, upside momentum has been abating. OPEC supply is set to increase, in addition to recovering supply out of Libya, while Norwegian and US supply are also increasing. There are also expectations for Iran to strike a deal on its nuclear program with the Biden administration, which could lower sanctions that have been stifling oil exports out of the country. These supply fundamentals, along with the demand-sapping virus containing measures in many of the major northern hemisphere economies, look to be setting up oil prices for a year-end correction after six consecutive up weeks. Elsewhere, the Pound has remained buoyant, with markets factoring in prospects for the EU and UK to reach a future relationship deal as soon as this week. There hasn’t been much news from the negotiating teams, though this in itself is being taken as a sure sign that progress is being made after the EU’s von der Leyen said that a “narrow” path to agreement has come into view. Cable has printed a 12-day high at 1.3519.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 15th December 2020.

FX Update – December 15 – Rangebound for now.



GBPUSD, H1

Narrow ranges have been prevailing among the main Dollar pairings and associated cross rates. This has been seen against a backdrop of sputtering global stock markets. Data showing Chinese industrial production rising 7.0% y/y in November, a 20-month high, along with a rise in retail sales, didn’t have much impact. Commodities have also been lacking direction after recent gains.



The surge in new positive test results for Covid in northern hemisphere countries, ranging from Japan and South Korea, to Europe and the US and Canada, along with more restrictive measures (tighter measures are due to be implemented in London from tomorrow, for instance), is being cited in market narratives as driving the risk-cautious sentiment in markets. While the bigger-picture outlook remains bullish, the view across the valley is being fogged out by the seasonality driven rise in coronavirus cases. The usual year-end wind down in investor commitment is also afoot. The roll-out of Covid vaccination programs in the months ahead won’t be sufficient to make much impact over the upcoming winter months.



The Brexit endgame, meanwhile, remains in focus, though the negotiation teams are being tight lipped and it is difficult to be sure exactly what the state of play is. The Pound has steadied after rallying yesterday. We do know that both sides have offered concessions, and have entered a post-brinkmanship, pragmatic phase, focused on a ‘managed divergence’ solution. The best market guess is that an agreement will be announced by the end of the week, however a no-deal outcome can’t be ruled out and remains a real possibility.

On Friday I wrote that “UK data flow recently has been remarkably resilient in the face of the pandemic and the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Today data is expected to show unemployment stable at 4.8%, claims increasing significantly to 50,000 and earnings slipping to under 1.0%.” The results earlier were much darker than expected, as official unemployment ticked higher to 4.9% but this hides the significant number of people (3.7 million) who remain furloughed. The claims did indeed increase, and significantly more than the 50,000 that were expected, coming in at 64,300. Although Earnings did beat expectations at 2.7%, due to one off bonus payments, the outlook remains subdued due to the new lockdown tier 3 regimes, set to cover an additional 10.8 million people, 61% of England’s population – or 34 million people – under the toughest restrictions from Wednesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 14th December 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.



Europe and the US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions still leave central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front has been confronted with slowing economic data. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, the PMI data flow, the FED, BOE, BOJ and SNB and the Brexit trade deal or no trade deal.

Monday – 14 December 2020

The Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (JPY, GMT 00:50) – The overall business conditions of the large manufacturing companies in Japan is expected to decline to -27 from -21 last time, with the Outlook holding up at -17 and remaining unchanged.

The FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The Chinese Economy has been recovering with significant FDI again, last time the data ratcheted to 6.4%.

Industrial Production (Oct) (EUR, GMT 10:00) – The volume of production of Industries for factories and manufacturing has been slowly recovering but showing signs of stalling. September’s negative -0.4% is expected to show a rebound to +1.8% for the October reading.

Tuesday – 15 December 2020

RBA Rate Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 12:30) – RBA kept policy settings unchanged – as widely expected, which left the three-year yield target at 0.10% and the cash rate target also at 0.10%. Governor Lowe said in his statement that the RBA doesn’t expect to lift the cash rate for at least three years. There was no dissention from the official line and little new is likely from the minutes.

Retail Sales & Ind. Production (CNY, GMT 02:00) – Chinese Retail Sales are expected to rise to 5.2% from 4.3% last time and Industrial production is expected to rise to 7.1% from 6.9% as data continues to improve.

Claims, Unemployment Rate and Earnings (GBP, GMT 07:00) – UK data flow recently has been remarkably resilient in the face of the pandemic the ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Today data is expected to show unemployment stable at 4.8%, claims increasing significantly to 50,000 and earnings slipping to under 1.0%.

Wednesday – 16 December  2020

PPI, CPI & Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – More UK data, Inflation from producer and consumer spending and Retail Sales all expected to show declines for the month and on an annualized basis. Retails Sales may hold up over 1.3%.

Markit PMI Composite (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Composite figure is expected to show some resilience but remaining very weak rising to just 45.5 from 43.3. The shocks could be around the Services figures for Germany and France earlier in the day. Manufacturing data was showing some lead before the latest round of lockdowns.

US Retail Sales (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for  a -0.2% November retail sales headline with a flat ex-autos measure, following respective October gains of 0.3% and 0.2%.

FED – Statement, Interest Rate Decision and Projections (USD, GMT 19:00) – Beige Book for the December 15-16 FOMC was on the dour side amid the surge in virus, renewed restrictions, and worries over looming expiration of unemployment benefits and moratoriums on foreclosures.

Thursday – 17 December 2020

Employment and Unemployment Rate (AUD, GMT 00:30) – The Australian jobs market is expected to show a dramatic fall in employment to -30,000 as unemployment ticks up from 7%.

SNB Interest Rate Decision and MPA (CHF, GMT 08:30) – As with other Central banks, no change is expected from the SNB with regards to interest rates, however, given the CHF’s rapid appreciation to near six year highs versus the weakening USD there maybe some reference to the currency.

BOE Interest Rate & APF Decision, MPC Mins & Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – Last time the BOE had to act after turning more pessimistic on the outlook in the light of the renewed lockdown and the increase in the asset purchase target was more generous than markets had expected. This is unlikely to have improved in the short term.

Friday – 18 December 2020

BOJ Interest Rate, MP Statement and Press Conference (JPY, GMT 03:00)– It’s widely expected, the BOJ will leave rates and asset purchases unchanged. BOJ head Kuroda is likely to again stress the downside risks, as economic outlook remains uncertain, but recent data has provided surprises to the upside,  but a volatile recovery path is likely.

UK Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Expectations are for the headline number to be 4.2% on a YoY basis down from 5.8%, last time, the MoM data for November to show an unchanged 1.2% and the key Core figure to fall to 5.9% from 7.8% last  time.

IFO Business Climate, Assessment & Expectations (EUR, GMT 09:00) – All three indicators are expected to show declines this month, coming in at 90.2, from 90.7, 89.3 from 90.0 and 91.5 from 92.9, respectively.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th December 2020.

FX Update – December 11 – USD & GBP Remain Heavy



EURUSD, H1

The Dollar softened against most currencies, with most stock markets and oil prices rising in Asia, although overall risk appetite in global markets is relatively more subdued compared to recent times. As the European session got under way some demand for the USD has been evident. The GER30 has tanked over 1% in European trading as a no-trade deal Brexit, potentially looms. Base metal prices are below trend highs, and US equity index futures are also flat or modestly lower. The risk of a no-deal outcome between the EU and UK in the Brexit endgame has risen, while in the US Democrat House Speaker Pelosi said that wrangling over a fiscal aid package could drag on through Christmas, just as Covid-19 containing measures are becoming more restrictive and extensive across the country. Add in the usual year-end wind down, along with depleted levels of cash on hand at global investors, and the scene looks set for a consolidation in global asset markets, if not a correction.



Among currencies, the USDIndex fell to a four-day low at 90.62, swinging the 32-month low that was seen a week ago at 90.48 back into scope, before a tick higher 90.80. EURUSD concurrently lifted to a four-day high, at 1.2163 and then declined to 1.2130. The pair’s 32-month low, seen last Friday, is at 1.2178. USDJPY fell back to levels around 104.00, correcting after yesterday posting a nine-day high at 104.59. AUDUSD posted a fresh 30-month high at 0.7571, and AUDJPY scaled to a new 20-month high. NZDUSD saw a 30-month peak, too over 0.7100. USDCAD remained heavy, but remained above the 32-month low seen yesterday at 1.2704. As for the Pound, the currency has been holding up well so far, but looks vulnerable. UK PM Johnson said that “in all candour that the treaty is not there yet,” while stating that he is willing to return to Brussels, or visit Berlin and/or Paris, to get a deal over the line. The leaders have set a deadline of Sunday, though discussions could extend through next week if a deal has been agreed by the end of the weekend. Markets still expect a deal, but acknowledge the risk for a no-deal. Bookmakers Willian Hill are currently given odds with an implied probability of 61.9% for a no-deal outcome, with a 45.5% chance given for a deal being struck, which is down from the 62% that was given ahead of Johnson’s meeting with EU’s von der Leyen on Wednesday. We would anticipate a sharp decline in the Pound in the event of a no-deal scenario.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th December 2020.

FX Update – December 10 – Sterling in the cross-hairs



GBPUSD & GBPAUD, H1

Sterling is under pressure after three hours of “lively and interesting” talks between UK PM Johnson and the European Commission President von der Leyen and their chief negotiators last night failed to find a way round “significant obstacles.” Talks will continue, and a new deadline has been set for Sunday, with the leaders promising that a “firm decision” will be made then, though UK foreign secretary Raab said that talks could still be extended. Either Johnson will have to decide whether the disruption of a no-deal is worth the risk, and/or von der Leyen will have to persuade EU leaders to budge during the group leaders’ summit today and tomorrow. The BBC’s Europe editor Katya Alder reported that EU diplomats are ready to go the extra mile, but contrary to the UK government view, the EU thinks the ultimate decision for deal or no deal lies primarily with the UK.



Our hunch is that a deal will still be reached, though Johnson will need some concessions from the EU as he will have to sell any deal to the influential faction of Brexit ideologues in his party. Sunday is the first anniversary of his 80-seat General Election win. The EU’s demands on fishing access to UK waters and governance, and in particular retaliatory measures if the UK diverged from EU rules, are on terms that Johnson singled out yesterday, just ahead of his trip to Brussels, that “no prime minister could accept.” He has some wiggle room, as he could argue that leaving the EU in some alignment of its rules is the pragmatic option in the Covid era, and that the UK could diverge from EU rules over time. A no-deal scenario would not come without potentially significant political risks to Johnson, and would see Scotland’s SNP step up demands for an independence referendum. The European Commission said it will publish “very narrow” no-deal contingency plans to maintain aviation and functioning borders.



The Pound has dropped over 0.5% against the Dollar in falling to the lower 1.3300s, and has seen a similar magnitude of decline against the Euro and other currencies. The USDIndex edged out a three-day high at 91.09, aided by the pound’s weakness, while EURUSD has lifted moderately after posting an eight-day low at 1.2059 yesterday. Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has remained perky, posting a new three-month high against the Yen, and nearing the 29-month high seen against the US Dollar yesterday. Unsurprisingly GBPAUD is the biggest mover so far today (-1.30%). The pair rejected 1.8050 & closed under 1.8000 yesterday. The sell-off continued today from open, and has breached 1.7900 and trades below S3 to test 1.770. The fast EMAs aligned and are trending lower, RSI 29 and approaching OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, broke 0-line yesterday morning, Stochs OB from earlier. H1 ATR 0.0035, Daily ATR 0.0152.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 8th December 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.



This will be a week of increased attention to the central banks with ECB and BoC on tap. The markets also remain focused on positive vaccine development and growing hopes for more fiscal stimulus before year end. Nevertheless, for Europe, a deal between the EU and UK is “imminent”, expected before the end of the weekend, according to an EU source cited by Reuters.

Monday – 07 December 2020

Gross Domestic Product (JPY, GMT 23:50) – Gross Domestic Product should advance in Q3 and reveal headline growth of 21.5% y/y and 5% q/q, with external demand, capital expenditure and private consumption rising.

Tuesday – 08 December 2020

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German December ZEW economic sentiment is seen to have declined at 35 compared to 39 in November.

Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Gross Domestic Product is seen stable at 12.6% growth in Q3 after the German Q3 GDP growth, released November 24, which was revised up to 8.5% (q/q, sa) in the final reading, from the 8.2% reported initially. It was an impressive bounce back from Q2’s -9.8% plunge, but the performance was not sufficient to compensate for the contraction that was triggered by lockdowns earlier in the year.

Wednesday – 09 December  2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – China’s recovery appears to be broadening, as a key manufacturing sentiment measure improved to its best level in three years during November while a non-manufacturing sentiment measure saw its best reading in eight years during November. CPI is expected to accelerate to a 0.8% y/y pace in November following the 0.5% growth last month.

Interest Rate Decision and Statement (CAD, GMT 15:00) – The reports so far are consistent with the ongoing recovery in Canada’s economy since the spring shutdown. Of course, the gain in November employment was the smallest monthly increase since hiring resumed in May, reflecting well anticipated moderation to a more sustainable pace as the reopening pop faded. However, the jobs and trade reports are consistent with no change in the BoC’s 0.25% rate setting expected at next week’s announcement, alongside a reiteration of the pledge to hold rates at 0.25% into 2023.

Thursday – 10 December 2020

European Council Meeting.

Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 12:45-13:30)  – The European Central Bank (ECB) remains on course to ease policy further in December, with officials highlighting that despite positive vaccine developments, the recovery will need ongoing monetary and in particular fiscal support through 2021. Comments confirm that the ECB remains on course to extend stimulus at the December 10th meeting with asset purchases and longer-term loans the central bank’s main weapons. The ECB is expected to strengthen PEPP, but could also boost regular asset purchase programs and improve TLTROs, although the final package will likely also depend on what happens on the virus front. Even in the best-case scenario, PEPP is still expected to be extended through next year, and Lagarde has made it clear that the ECB is firmly focused on helping governments to extend fiscal support by maintaining favorable financing conditions.

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.1% November gain for the CPI headline and a 0.2% core price rise are anticipated, following flat rates for both in October. CPI gasoline prices look poised to fall -0.4% in November, leaving a headwind for the headline. As-expected November figures would result in a 1.1% headline y/y increase, following a 1.2% October rise. Core prices should show a 1.6% y/y rise, as seen in October. With average inflation targeting, the Fed will face no pressure to withdraw accommodation any time soon.

Friday – 11 December 2020

European Council Meeting – Day 2.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The German HICP inflation for July is anticipated to dip to -0.5% in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 30th November 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.



Europe and US are in the middle of a second wave of Covid-19 infections. The prospect of another hit to the economy in Q4 and emerging lockdown disruptions.still leaves central banks and fiscal authorities in crisis mode, but positive news on the vaccine front leaves investors looking ahead to the recovery. Next week’s focus will remain on the virus, Brexit as the latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday, OPEC+ group which will also decide on extending prevailing quota restrictions next Tuesday, and on the Non-Farm Payroll outcome.

Monday – 30 November 2020

Eurogroup Meeting.

Non-Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The Non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slowdown to 52.1 from 56.2 in October.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 13:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for November is anticipated to remain unchanged at -0.5% y/y.

Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 15:00) – Pending home sales experienced a minor decline at -2.2% in September after four consecutive months of contract activity growth/ For October we could further decline to -2.6%.

Tuesday – 01 December 2020

RBA Rate Statement & Interest Rate (AUD, GMT 03:30) – In the last meeting, RBA stepped up stimulus to ensure recovery by announcing a package of measures designed to secure a rapid recovery from the crisis now that lockdowns have lifted. RBA’s Lowe also stated that he sees no appetite to go into negative rates. The central bank head send a pretty clear signal that the focus now has shifted to asset purchases, with no appetite at the central bank to move into negative rate territory.

Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Preliminary November inflation expected to remain unchanged at -0.3% y/y in the final reading for September, unchanged from the preliminary release. Core inflation meanwhile declined to 0.2% y/y and while special factors are playing a role, officials clearly are increasingly concerned that the prolonged period of underinflation and now negative headline rates will prompt a more lasting shift in price expectations, which against the background of a sizeable output gap and rising unemployment lifts the risk of real deflation down the line.

Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canada GDP results for the Q3 are seen to be slowing down, at a yearly rate of -39.6% compared to 38.7% last month.
ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US manufacturing PMI is expected to fall to 57.5 in November from a 2-year high of 59.3 in October. We’re seeing a modest November pull-back in available producer sentiment measures to still-elevated levels, as output is continuing to rise in the face of plunging inventories and rising sales, with limited headwinds from delayed stimulus and continued virus outbreaks.

Fed’s Governor Powell testimony (USD, GMT 15:00)

Wednesday – 02 December  2020

RBA’s Governor Lowe speech (AUD, GMT 00:00).

Gross Domestic Product (AUD, GMT 00:30) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q3 GDP is expected to confirm slowdown to -7.8% q/q and -7.2% y/y.

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 07:00) – German sales are anticipated to have fallen slightly to -0.8% in October, compared to -2.2% m/m in September.

ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 13:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 500k for November compared to the 365K in October.

Thursday – 03 December 2020

Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian retail trade is expected to see a strong decline in August, at -8.5% y/y from the downwards revision in June at -2.9% y/y.

Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail Sales dropped -2.0% m/m in September, more than anticipated. It left the annual rate still at 2.2% y/y, indicating a pick up compared to the same months last year, but different sales season amid the pandemic distort the picture and the annual rate is actually down from 4.2% y/y in the previous month.

ISM Service PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – US Markit October services PMI was revised up to 56.9 in the final read versus 56.0 in the preliminary. It’s the best reading since April 2015 and is a third month in expansion. In November the ISM Service PMI is seen at 56.4.

Friday – 04 December 2020

Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – October’s Retail sales could be improved by 1.6%, following a -1.1% September loss.

Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 13:30) – Expectations are for the headline number to be around 750k in November, after gains of 638k in October, 672k in September. The jobless rate should fall to 6.8% from 6.9% in October, versus a 14.7% peak in April. Average hourly earnings are assumed to rise 0.1% in November, with a headwind from further unwinds of the April distortion from the concentration of layoffs in low-wage categories slows. This translates to a y/y gain of 4.2%, down from 4.5%. We expect the payroll rebound to continue through year-end, though the climb is leaving a net drop for employment for 2020 overall.

Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Canadian data coincides with the USA release today with dire expectations for a slight deduction in Unemployment to 8.8% from 8.9% last month and a rise from the 83.6 in October for employment, to 100k.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 27th November 2020.

FX Update – November 27 – Sterling in Focus



GBPUSD, H1

Narrow ranges have been prevailing in risk-cautious trading. The USDIndex settled around the 92.00 level, above yesterday’s 12-week low at 91.84. EURUSD remained buoyant but off from the 12-day peak seen yesterday at 1.1942. Cable also held within its Thursday range. USDJPY ebbed to a four-day low at 103.91. The Yen was concurrently steady versus the Euro and the Pound, but posted respective two- and four-day lows against the Australian and Canadian Dollars. AUDUSD ticked fractionally higher, which was still sufficient to lift the pair into 12-week high terrain above 0.7380. NZDUSD posted a new 29-month peak at 0.7030. USDCAD remained heavy but just above recent 17-day lows. Bitcoin, which performed strongly this year on the back of dollar liquidity, found a toehold, but remained over 12% down on its recent highs.



US markets will reopen after yesterday’s Thanksgiving holiday, but market conditions will remain on the thin side. President Trump said that he will leave the White House if the Electoral College votes for Biden, which may be as close to formally conceding the election as he will go. A sharp focus remains on EU and UK talks, with a face-to-face round reportedly taking place in London over the weekend. There are now reports that the EU parliament might convene as late as December 28 to ratify a deal, if necessary.

The spectre of a no-deal hangs over proceedings, though the consensus, as judged by the ongoing stability of the Pound, remains for a narrow deal to be reached.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 26th November 2020.

Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!



The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.



The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!

Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.

European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.

The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.

Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.

Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).

A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.

As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 25th November 2020.

Caution and profit taking has crept into the market



US equity futures are mixed with modest moves as caution and profit taking has crept into the market following yesterday’s risk on rally. Wall Street surged with gains of over 1.5% on the broader indexes as strong efficacy rates on three vaccine candidates continued to brighten outlooks and increase the potential for a return to normalcy sooner than later. However as the overall outlook remains positive for US futures  there seems to be limited appetite to push valuations out further for now, as much of next year’s (expected) recovery is already priced in, while virus developments spell further restrictions for the weeks and likely months ahead.

Expectations that Janet Yellen would be named as Treasury Secretary under a Biden administration was a relief as she’s a known quantity and would likely support hefty stimulus. Treasuries sagged, not surprisingly, on the strength in risk appetite and amid a heavy supply slate this week.

Today features a heavy dose of data ahead of the market closure on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, which could make for choppy action. Of note, Q3 after tax corporate profits came in at a record 27.5% pace, from -10.7% in Q2. The USA30 is off -0.2%  but sustained close to 30K area while the USA500 mini has slipped -0.06%. The USA100 mini is 0.3% firmer after underperforming the rally yesterday that saw the USA30 close above 30k for the first time ever.

GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.1%, and up 0.3% respectively. Governments across Europe are pondering how and if to ease lockdowns over the festive period while the WHO has already warned of a third wave in the winter.

Yields have dipped modestly after disappointing jobless claims data and as stock futures give back some of yesterday’s historic gains. US Advance goods trade deficit widened to -$80.3 bln in October after the unexpected narrowing to -$79.4 bln in September. Advance durable goods orders rose 1.3% in October after climbing 2.1% (was 1.9%) in September. This is a sixth straight monthly gain as orders recover from the pandemic plunge in the spring that saw an -18.3% drop in April, just short of the weakest on record of -18.8% from August 2014. US initial jobless claims rose 30k to 778k in the week ended November 21 after claims gained 37k to 748k (was 742k) in the November 14 week. It is the strongest reading for initial claims in five weeks, as the surge in Covid infections and the consequent increase in restrictions on activity has weighed on the job market. Last the US Q3 GDP growth was left unrevised at 33.1% from the Advance report. Growth has bounced back at an historic pace after cratering at a record -31.4% rate in Q2.

The belly of the curve is outperforming with yields down over 1 bp as the market digests this week’s record supply. The 5-year is at 0.385%, with the 7-year at 0.634%. The 10-year has richened 1 bp to 0.870%, and the bond is flat at 1.60%. The 5s-30s bull steepened to 121.5 bps from 120.8 bps yesterday and 116.7 bps Monday. Bonds should find support from worries over spiking virus cases and more strict lockdowns, along with month-end where Barclays forecasts a 0.16-year extension, the most since 2009.

Attention remains on vaccines and the virus. Additionally, Brexit warnings and comments from central banks suggesting caution on additional rate cuts added to pressures on equities. ECB officials continue to flag the extension of PEPP. Mersch, however, signaled he is not looking to cut the deposit rate further.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 24th November 2020.

Macro Events & News – November 24 2020



Market News Today

USD recovered after better than expected PMI’s. –  Earlier AstraZeneca vaccine hopes lifted stocks, EZ PMIs worse than expected, UK’s better than expected but both poor. Trump acknowledged that Biden transition should start – Equities rallied further (Nikkei back and up 2.5%) & riskier currencies gained a bid. Biden to name Yellen as Treasury Secretary & Kerry as Climate Tsar. In total a triple whammy for sentiment and risk appetite. USOil followed stocks higher and Gold trades  $50 lower than Friday’s close.  German GDP revised higher to 8.5% in final reading, from 8.2%.

Shortened Thanksgiving Week Ahead – Highlights – FOMC mins – more significance, after Mnuchin removed emergency funding – possibility of action at their Dec. meeting. Plus –  Consumer Confidence, Durable Goods & GDP

USDIndex – Sank to support at 92.00 yesterday – rallied to 92.70, post PMI’s. back under PP now at 92.35. S1 92.10, R1 92.90.                     

EUR – Rejected 1.1900 & tested down to 1.1800, again yesterday. Now 1.1855 (PP)   JPY – down to 103.67 lows yesterday. Rallied to 104.60, now back to 104.40. PP 104.25.

GBP – rallied to a smidge shy of 1.3400, & down to 1.3262. Back to 1.3340 (PP)now all in anticipation of EU-UK Trade announcement this week?

AUD – 0.7340 – 0.7270 range yesterday. Trades at 0.7320 now (R1), PP 0.7295               NZD – down to test 0.6900 yesterday, another good Asian session for king Kiwi, back to test R2 0.6990 earlier, now at 0.6975.

CAD – Back to 1.3040 (S1) ;  R1 & 200Ma cap at 1.3090, S2 1.3015                           CHF –  0.9075 lows to 0.9150 yesterday. Back to PP and 200Ma now 0.9115, s1 0.9093

BTC – Holds bid at $18,400 (PP).  Tested to 18k low yesterday.         

GOLD – Collapsed 3% from 1876 to test S1 at 1820 earlier – now 1830 – PP 1850    USOil – Rallied over R1 to $43.70.  Vaccine hopes & OPEC+ production cut noises continue to support prices. R2 today 43.90. Private inventories later, official EIA data tomorrow.

USA500 – Closed +20 (+0.56%) 3577 – USA500 FUTS now at 3605.

Today – German IFO, US Consumer Confidence, BoE’s Haskel, Fed’s Bullard, Williams, ECB’s Schnabel, Lagarde, Lane,

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.79%) –. Holds rally from yesterdays sub 72.00 open, ran to test R3 at 73.05 earlier.  Fast MA’s aligned higher but cooling at R2, RSI 68 moving below OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher, breached 0-line last week. Stochs. lowering from OB H1 ATR 0.2565 Daily ATR 0.7411.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 13th November 2020.

A risk-back-on theme has emerged



The Pound was showing a 0.5% gain on the US Dollar as of the late London morning, and the UK currency was also making gains versus the Euro, Yen and other currencies. Several factors appear to be at play. One is the rebound in equity markets, which, if view edas a revival of the Covid vaccine rally, is a positive for the Pound, with the UK having large pre-orders of the Pfizer candidate vaccine.

The European bourses have recovered and are mostly in the green, albeit slightly having pared gains, with the GER30 up about 0.1%, though the UK100 is -0.6% lower. European stock indices are racking up gains of over 0.5% and USA500 futures are up by nearly 1%, nearly reversing all of the closing losses that the cash version of the index saw on Wall Street yesterday. The UK saw the biggest peak to trough drop in its GDP this year out of the G20 economies, so it may benefit most in the route out of the crisis.

Another consideration is the political developments on Downing Street, with the departure of the government’s director of communications, and news that Dominic Cummings will leave his advisory role by Christmas, being read as a weakening in the influence of the ‘Vote Leave’ campaigners, meaning there could be a softer, more pragmatic attitude to Brexit, although it is not yet clear what shape the new administration set-up will take. As for the ongoing negotiations, there is still no breakthrough with only about a week to go to the ‘final final’ deadline.



Evidently, given the Pound’s performance, the prevailing market expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal, which is what is anticipated. Both sides will have to make concessions if a deal is to be achieved. All things Brexit go down to the wire, and neither side has been willing, as yet, to make the first move in the concession game. Too much is at stake for both sides, surely, for there to be a failure in statesmanship. It should also be clear that the UK government has the option of exiting the common market in close alignment to EU rules and then diverging in an evolving process over time. The promise of future divergence would serve to mollify the powerful faction of Brexit ideologues.

There is also the possibility of there being a ‘technical delay’, though the political mood seems set against this. UK media, meanwhile, have been increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts to cross border trade that are likely to be seen when the UK leaves the single market and customs union in just seven weeks’ time.

Cable posted a high at 1.3185, which recouped nearly two thirds of yesterday’s decline, while EURGBP dropped to levels under 0.9002, correcting from yesterday’s high.



Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 12th November 2020.

FX Update – November 12 – Sterling Pressured, JPY in Demand



GBPJPY, H1

Some reversal in recent positioning themes has been seen, with the dollar bloc and Pound softening against the Dollar, and the Yen outperforming moderately. This dynamic has been concomitant with global stock markets, outside the case of Japan, flagging. A fall in Chinese tech stocks, sparked by Beijing regulators launching an antitrust investigation, led a broader paring of recent gains in equity markets, which surged over the last week. Some caution had already been creeping back into markets, at least enough to deter investors from entering new positions at the recently heightened levels. The raised level of optimism for a Covid-19 vaccine assisted return to normality remains intact, though there is some way to go and there are known unknowns, including long-term vaccine efficacy and population-wide safety issues. There also appears to be some disquiet about Trump’s refusal to accept the election results, especially with his move to fire his defence secretary, which some fear means that he will try to stay in office. Unnamed Trump aides cited by the Washington Post, however, say that he has no real plan to overturn the results. Japan’s Nikkei 225 gets a special mention for bucking the trend in rallying to a fresh 29-year high.

In currencies, EURUSD has been trading neutrally in the mid-to-upper 1.1700s. The pair completed a more-than 50% retrace of the outsized gain the pair saw last week and through to Monday, which left a two-month peak at 1.1920. USDJPY has ebbed moderately, to the lower 105.00s. The Pound has come under some moderate pressure, correcting recent gains. There is still no breakthrough in EU-UK trade talks. Sources cited by Reuters yesterday reported that the ‘final-final’ deadline is the end of next week, (November 20) so the clock is ticking. The general expectation remains that there will be a last minute climbdown and the two sides will strike a deal. Media networks, meanwhile, are increasingly highlighting the likely disruptive impacts of the UK leaving the single market and customs union, which will happen in just seven weeks’ time. Today’s UK GDP data, although a Q3 record at 15.5%, showed further weakness during September and was 3 ticks below expectations of 15.8%. The current data shows the UK economy is -9.7% smaller than it was at the end of Q4 2019.



Technically, GBPJPY rejected 140.00 yesterday, moving under the 20-Hour moving average into the close. Today the pair have moved under 139.00 and tested S2 at 138.70, and R3 is at 138.05. The fast MAs are aligned and trending lower, RSI is 36 and falling, the MACD histogram & signal line are also aligned lower and breached 0 line this morning. Stochastics have moved into the oversold zone but remain weak. The H1 ATR is 0.1630, and the Daily ATR is 1.3000.



Elsewhere, the Kiwi Dollar dropped back after a short-lived rally following remarks by RBNZ’s Hawkesby, who said that while negative interest rates remain an option, less monetary stimulus now appears necessary than previously thought, which essentially repeated the signalling from the central bank yesterday in the wake of its policy review. NZDUSD printed a 20-month high at 0.6914 before retreating to the mid 0.6800s.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 11th November 2020.

FX Update – November 11 – USD lifts, JPY drops, & GBP mixed



The Dollar has firmed against the Euro and other European currencies outside the case versus the Pound, with the UK currency posting two-month highs against both the Dollar and Yen, while holding steady-to-lower against the dollar bloc before rotating lower as the news broke that the mid-Nov trade deal deadline looks to be extended from November 15  into next week.



The risk-on mood has continued. Europe’s Stoxx 600 equity index rallied to its best levels in eight months, and S&P 500 E-mini futures were showing a gain of nearly 0.8% as of the early afternoon in London. The 10-year US T-note yield rose 1.5 bp to a new eight-month high at 0.979%. Commodities were mixed, however, though oil prices gained more than 3%.



In forex markets, Yen weakness and outperformance in commodity currencies and those of export oriented economies have been prevailing. USDJPY lifted back above 105.50, though remained shy of the highs seen on Monday, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY posted new two- and 10-month highs, respectively.

A pricing out of negative interest rate expectations in New Zealand following the RBNZ policy review today, which saw policymakers signal that the need for more monetary stimulus has reduced, boosted the Kiwi Dollar, which gained about 1% on the US Dollar and by more against the Yen. But biggest mover today, so far is EURNZD down some 1.5% from early day trades at 1.7350 to 1.7090 lows now.



The Japanese currency’s pronounced underperformance on Monday and continued softness marks a return to form with an inverse correlation of risk appetite in global markets. The success of Pfizer’s candidate vaccine for Covid in trials has been greeted as a game changer by investors. Bank shares, which hit record valuation lows this year, and so-called social-close stocks along with energy shares have rallied strongly, revealing that investors are looking across the valley of the prevailing predicament of Covid-related restrictions and economic weakness, and beyond to a return to normality in 2021. There is naturally some caution (known unknowns include long-term vaccine efficacy and population-wide safety), which has seen asset price gains lose momentum, though the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus that is in the works across the world, and the lower-for-longer monetary policy rubric at the Fed and other central banks (which enhances the value of corporate earnings), is a powerful tonic for higher valuations in cyclical assets. There are also a multitude of other credible Covid-19 vaccine candidates, aside from Pfizer’s, many of which have been reporting encouraging signs in advanced-stage testing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 10th November 2020.

USA100 holds under extensive pressure



Global stock markets are mostly higher, resuming yesterday’s stellar day on Wall Street as the indexes raced sharply higher on surprisingly positive vaccine news from Pfizer and BioNTech. News from Pfizer that its COVID vaccine is very effective prompted risk-on conditions globally, lifting stocks, yields and crude oil prices.

In the Asian market equities petered out amid the realisation that there are still considerable challenges ahead in the fight against Covid-19, however there is at least a light at the end of the tunnel now that will also reduce the pressure on central banks to add ever more stimulus. Currently however equities other than the European ones have settled in a comparatively narrow range.

The GER30 is up, after correcting some of yesterday’s sharp gains, but is holding above early lows. Other European indices are higher, with the UK100 gaining a further 0.8%, the CAC 40 up 0.5% and the Spanish IBEX 1.8%. The wider Euro Stoxx 600 has risen 7% over the past 5 days, but is still down 6% over the year, highlighting that there is still room for further improvement if and when it is confirmed that the virus situation is under control and Europe doesn’t face a further cycle of lockdowns and restrictions.

On the US side however the USA100 holds in the red after it closed yesterday -1.5% lower. The hopes for a more normal life saw investors pile into travel and leisure sectors, and flee the stay home sectors. Hence, the USA100’s gains lagged through for a second consecutive day and the index fell into negative territory. The USA100 was hit by the rotation out of defensive technology stocks into shares that will benefit most from an end to lockdowns.

The asset is in a dramatic shift this week towards negative sentiment. Selling pressure has ramped up and there has been a significant breakdown on the 20-day SMA and a reversal of more than 50% of last week’s gains. The latest higher high at 12,422 has been rejected suggesting that the 3-month descending triangle is still in place and consolidation is underway. Momentum indicators are now flat to negative in the daily chart, while intraday they are decisively negative, with 4-hour RSI consistently failing under 40 and MACD readying to turn negative. This suggests an outlook of selling into near term strength.



Hence now the November higher low and 100FE at 10,929 and 11,155 are the areas to be seen of overhead supply and a near term sell-zone for any bounces this week. Breaking down below the 10,929 and more precisely 10,700 (September low & 3-month support) could confirm a medium term bearish outlook with immediate support levels on the March-September upleg. There is initial resistance at 12,000 – 12,422 .

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 9th November 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.



Uncertainty and doubts soared in November as the virus surged, the  FED and ECB have been unable to deliver more stimulus yet, and the US election is indicating a Biden presidency and a split Congress, with Republicans likely to retain the Senate and  Democrats retaining the House. More volatility looks to be in store for next week as the market monitors economic data and events for signs of faltering growth in the US and Europe into a recession.

Monday – 09 November 2020

BoE Governor Bailey speech and BoE Haldane (GBP, GMT 10:35 & 14:00) – The BoE in November topped up its asset purchase program by a further GBP 150 bln. That was a pretty clear indication that the BoE is not expecting to go down the negative rate route and that the weapon of choice remains asset purchases, which will help the government to raise the funds necessary to finance the costly labour market support and stimulus program.

Tuesday – 10 November 2020

Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – Chinese inflation data in September was lower at 0.2% m/m and 1.7% y/y. October’s reading however is expected to grow to 1.8% y/y as China shows recovery in key sectors.

Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 07:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 1.2% (3Mo/Yr) in September. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined to 4.3% from 4.5%  in the three months to September.

Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for September is expected to have spiked to 67.7 in November. The Eurozone presents a picture of a split economy in general with manufacturing holding up and services struggling, and that effect will also widen the gap between Eurozone economies, as countries relying more on services and tourism will struggle much more than Germany.

Wednesday – 11 November 2020

Interest Rate Decision and Conference (NZD, GMT 14:00) – In September, at the last meeting, the RBNZ left its official cash rate and QE program unchanged, as had been widely anticipated, but stressed a willingness to take further stimulus measures if necessary while noting persisting downside risks to the economy, adding that currency strength remains a negative for NZ exporters. The RBNZ indicated it is actively working on a negative rate stance and the expansion of QE.

Thursday – 12 November 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 07:00) – The November BoE report took into account the resurgence of Covid-19 case numbers and the resulting restrictions in the UK and elsewhere and hence the GDP is expected to contract again in the last quarter of the year, largely due to “lower consumer spending on social activity, which was assumed to be partially offset by higher spending on other goods and services”. However as per the preliminary report, GDP for Q3 is seen to deteriorate further and  present a still dismal -20.5% q/q contraction, and  -22.4% y/y from -21.5%.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 07:00) –The final German HICP inflation for October is seen at -0.4% y/y from -0.5%.

Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – The  CPI headline and core are both expected to show with 0.2% October gains, following 0.2% gains for both in September as well. CPI gasoline prices look poised to be flat in October so they’ll have no impact on the headline. As-expected October figures would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.3%, steady from September.

Friday – 13 November 2020

Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 10:00) – The release of preliminary Q3 GDP numbers for the Eurozone two weeks ago confirmed that economic activity rebounded as lockdowns were lifted with most countries’ data actually coming in stronger than initially anticipated. Hence unchanged number are anticipated for this week’s reading as the activity levels remain far below those seen a year ago, while at the same time there is the resurgence in virus cases and renewed lockdowns across most major Eurozone countries.

Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – As with PPI, a flat October headline gain is forecasted with 0.2% for the core, following 0.4% gains for both in September. The y/y core reading is assumed to rise to the 1.5% area into the turn of the year, with a downward hit from reduced aggregate demand but a boost for prices from supply disruptions. Supply constraints for some sectors will prove increasingly important in Q4.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 6th November 2020.

NFP Friday on a US Election week!



Treasury Action: losses on Treasuries have accelerated even as stocks sag. Some of the action is a function of unwinding of some of this week’s big moves. But there’s some renewed concerns creeping back into the markets as the expectation for a split Congress is coming into doubt as special elections are likely necessary in January.
The US Dollar headed a bit higher after the jobs report, which revealed a higher than consensus NFP print, and saw the unemployment rate fall to 6.9% from 7.9%. USDJPY rallied to 103.48 from 103.35, while EURUSD dipped toward 1.1865 from 1.1880. Equity futures remain in the red, though off earlier lows, while yields ticked slightly higher before pulling back.

[VIDEO]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=390059935451192[/VIDEO]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 5th November 2020.

NOW WHAT?



Global stock markets are rallying and sovereign bond yields, led by US Treasury yields, are tumbling as investors warm to the idea of a split government that could finally bring additional stimulus, but keep overall spending and debt under control and thus support a low yield environment for longer. Markets are discounting a Biden presidency and a split Congress.

Although Democrats still have a narrow path to taking control of the Senate (there is a 48 versus 48 deadlock currently, with four seats left to be decided), most political pundits think it unlikely. At the same time Biden is the favourite to win the presidency, although there is still some way to go before vote counting will be complete, while Trump is mounting legal challenges. The general view is that Biden will reach the 270 winning electoral college vote threshold (he’s currently at 264 to Trump’s 214), as well as that Trump’s litigation efforts will come to naught.

Without the Senate, the Democrats big fiscal stimulus plans will be kept in check. This means both a reduced prospect for bond issuance and a reduced prospect for inflation, which is why Treasuries have been rallying strongly. The yield on the 10-year T-note has plunged by nearly 17 bp from the high seen just ahead of Tuesday’s election. The combo of lower yields, loose labour market conditions, the prospect of less competition for resources from the government, excitement about tech and the growing fad for WFH (work from home) stocks, and prospects for a Covid vaccine are among the factors underpinning Wall Street.



Hence since so far no one can celebrate a victory, you should focus on markets and how the scenario with US President Biden with a Republican Senate and a Democrat House might affect them in the near and long term future.

In the above scenario, there is firstly the concern whether US President Trump may chase some policies prior to Biden’s establishment in the White house. For example trade policy falls under the President in power, in contrast with fiscal policy and regulatory policy which fall under the US Senate in the face of a divided Congress. Another concern in a divided Government, in the long term, is the  strive  to achieve  a sustainable fiscal position, as so far due to Covid-19 this has not been possible to accomplish. Meanwhile even without a final election outcome so far, questions have been raised in regards to prejudice, which would be corrosive to US competitiveness according to UBS.

However despite all this potential uncertainty and regardless if any of the above become true, the US economy is expected to show growth next year. According to Morgan Stanley,

"In short term, the business cycle dominates the political cycle, especially when we’re so early in a recovery. Secondly, a viable vaccine is now close to being approved. This approval, along with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it with therapeutics, should allow us to manage a second wave better than the initial outbreak. That means by spring, we should be fully open in the economy, with safe participation by most people. The timing and pace of reopening is perhaps the most important variable and driver of economic activity next year. It’s also what financial markets continue to look forward to and why they’ve traded so well this year."

Not exactly like March, but definitely a sell off has been seen in equity markets due to the election and as the virus and restrictions remain headwinds. Despite the latest swing higher, we could state that so far the pandemic’s second wave might not have been discounted from global markets. Hence since the Election will be soon be out of the way, then if the pandemic is settled within the year Equity markets could be boosted as business will not suffer anymore. As this implies the reopening of economies globally,  stocks – not solely technology ones, but all others from the tourism sector, services sector, industrial sector,  etc – could finally recover.

Just to highlight however that there is the risk still of a divided Congress with Mr Biden in the House.  This would limit his ability to deliver a big fiscal stimulus package as he desires to raise corporate taxes to 28%, after Mr Trump cut the rate from 35% to 21% in 2018. However the drop in taxes increased corporate profits, spurring a jump in stock buybacks that has helped to boost share prices over the past two years. These repurchases increase earnings on a per-share basis, which can boost the stock price.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

Date : 4th November 2020.

FX Update – Election Uncertainty = Risk Off.



If there is one thing markets (all markets) hate, it’s uncertainty, and that’s what we have at the moment in both the Presidential and Senate races. As things stand at 08:30 GMT the morning after the USA Election 2020, there are 87 Electoral votes still available. Trump, with 213, needs 57, and Biden, on 238, needs 32, to reach the key 270 votes required to become President of the USA. States yet to declare results are:-

Pennsylvania 20
Michigan 16
Georgia 16
North Carolina 15
Wisconsin 10
Nevada 6
Alaska 3
Maine 1
The Senate (with 100 votes) stands at 47 each for the Republicans and Democrats with 6 decisions awaited.

So it’s very much risk aversion on a closer than expected US election, and Trump agitating the process with claims that his rivals are attempting to manipulate the results has driven the dollar higher on a safe haven bid, while US Treasuries have surged, driving the 10-year T-note yield down by 12 bp. The DXY dollar index rose by over 0.7% in making a high at 94.30. The S&P 500 E-mini has also racked up a 1% decline, reversing over half of the gain that the cash version of the index saw on Wall Street yesterday.



There is potential for the US to be in limbo for days as the closeness of the race means a drawn-out process of vote counting. Political pundits warned ahead of the election that if Biden won a close contest, the risk of Trump formally contesting the outcome would rise. This backdrop should keep the risk-off positioning theme in play, unless there is any clear-cut outcome. The Democrats are looking set to retain their dominance in the House, though it’s looking less certain that they will flip the Senate.



Elsewhere among currencies, EURUSD has seen volatile price action, dropping sharply from levels in the mid 1.1700s to a 1.1602 low before recouping to the mid 1.1600s. The pair still remains down by around 0.5% on the day. The biggest currency losers include the Australian Dollar, which is down by over 1%, and the likes of Mexican Peso, which is showing a 3% loss, and the South African Rand, which is nearly 2% lower versus the US Dollar. The Yen has been mixed, losing ground to the Dollar while holding steady versus the Euro and gaining on the more risk-sensitive, higher beta currencies. Amid all this, the Pound has been underperforming peer currencies, that is the Euro, Dollar, Yen, and others. Cable dropped over 1% to a 1.2915 low while EURGBP rallied out of two-month lows and back above the 0.9000 level. We have been earmarking Sterling as being a currency at particular risk given the upcoming drop in the UK’s terms of trade when the country exits the single market and customs union, the impact of which will be compounded by Covid lockdowns in the UK and across Europe.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.