Exciting stuff! 

Suuure... 


Yes, I was seeing the same thing -- many small trades causing fluctuations. Looking forward to some decent-sized trades next week.

... And back to 65. I wonder where the bottom is this time?

The price is 25% higher than it was a week ago. Some crash...

Sounds exactly the same as the way the sellers operate at high prices. TBH the sell walls look even more manipulative.

There are cheap coins (55), and there is a ruined market (44). Be careful which you wish for.

Don't do that!!

Don't get sucked in.

Buy and hold!

Uh... Yeah. That post is about as laden with sarcasm as you get. There's a big picture of the bloody Hindenburg, fer chrissakes

Just putting this out there... for years I ran a small BatchPCB-like operation, arranging fabrication of PCB runs large and small for customers through a supplier here in China. I mainly sold through eBay and my (currently defunct) site, helloproto.com .

Clients would send me Gerber files and I would check them and send a quote, and arrange a batched deal with my manufacturer. Quality was pretty good, and I was able to offer a full range of options (2-layer, two-side silkscreen & resist, different colours, different platings & thicknesses, etc.). Prices were competitive or better than BatchPCB, depending on the size of the order.

The sites are now largely defunct as the strengthening CNY against USD and GBP was forcing me to cut prices, thinning profit margins for a relatively time-consuming job. (checking files, quoting, QC, translation, etc.)

I've spent some time automating the ordering system, however, and think it could be profitable again. I think the Bitcoin & open source hardware community probably intersect quite well, so I'd ideally like to relaunch as a Bitcoin-focused service. There certainly seem to be lots of hardware hackers here.

If I re-opened and focused on Bitcoin-paying customers, would there be much interest for this service? Any questions or suggestions?

I disagree. When BTC is looking temporarily weak, speculators will turn to LTC, and vice versa. LTC is performing poorly because there are too many gains to be had in BTC right now, not due to overall speculator appetite.

You don't make a profit until you sell!

For every seller there is a buyer.

Who knows..... My bet is treading water until Monday/Tuesday, when we go $75 -> high $90s.

Well, that was the point of the first chart. It seems to show we are OK so far this year.

However, the success of BTC as a currency will have a magnifying effect as investors pile in too. There is space for both. As the overall usage of BTC increases, there will be more appetite for speculation, and the maximum sustainable ratio of speculation will increase.

However since the ratio appears to be decreasing right now, I'm not sure we even need to bother calculating that yet.

You can laugh if you like, but I won't sell. I'm getting used to the roller-coaster ride.

The reason I sound so optimistic is because this speculation sub-forum is dangerous. ;-)

Is this a trap???

First you ask "do you honestly think that bitcoin will not drop" Yes/No

Then you say "Vote Yes if you think it will".

Anyway... Yes, I do not think Bitcoin will drop below $60.

Yes, I honestly believe that.

Actually the ratio of speculation to BTC transactions has been decreasing since October 2012:



(this shows the level of trade compared to overall BTC transactions)

Overall speculative levels are very high, but nothing compared to previous bubbles:



I'm not convinced this is a bubble. You can't just look at the price data.


Furthermore number of new users using BTC has been growing at a steady rate since Dec. It was growing prior to that, but at a slower rate.

See, number of new Bitcoin addresses:



While these users are the same demographic of users that will use BTC online, I don't see a big problem.

Any time the user base is growing, assuming a certain % of them save/hold BTC, one would expect exponential gains. So when you plot increases on a logarithmic graph, you should see a straight line. Depending on the doubling rate of the new users, that straight line will have a different intercept.

That's exactly what I'm seeing. this is the China /BTC exchange rate on a log chart. The rise in price corresponds neatly with the influx of new users. So I don't think anyone is over-reaching themselves; the market is just expanding and the price rising accordingly.

The chart doesn't prove shit... log scale or not.

In many respects the log chart is more useful, as the user base is growing almost exponentially. The aim is to make some variables static. Total exposure to a crash per user is more useful than total total market price, if you're trying to figure out investors' appetite for continued high prices.

"reality of it clearly being a bubble" No chart shows that. They just show the price against time. Don't be fooled!

All-time High

Ha :-)

17k now. But buying pressure seems to be tapering off.

There are several mini-steps on the way up though, so who knows...?

18.5k now