No I actually think the driving force for gambling is entertainment from the risk itself.   Its ironic that its the riches exactly, thats the prize sure and people go for it but the real buzz is from the risk factor and hence why its dangerous that people will continue on regardless even when its not likely to gain a profit.     This is why good technique and discipline is required to build up a good winning streak, knowing when to take profits etc.   Its more complicated then just going for a simple win, its a process

Thats a flag pattern above what was previous resistance around 8000.   So its still looking bullish.    I dont know what it will do next but all I can do is judge it by the quality of price action that takes place.

Some profit taking is natural but if it pulls back and stays above 8100 area then I believe higher prices are then more likely.    In the same way as its previously pulled back but not substantially fallen, its been a bullish regular pattern for months now

Thats fair enough, a few people have noted about the time factor and it being advantageous to delay the bet otherwise but if early bird rule is in effect that counters it.     I used to see this with sports betting quite alot, people would swoop in last minute with a bet which causes some problems.  



Bitcoin is very unpredictable,   I was so sure it would hang around 6000 area for far longer.   This I dont understand.    I made a deposit to take advantage of the interest on the site which I dont often do.   When its this irrationally positive it makes sense to just save and take in the scenery as we rise , last time I decided this as a policy was Feb 2017 so hopefully Im similarly correct longer term.

People have felt similarly to that all along since Feb at least.     Bitcoin is far harder to judge then many things I think, I'm wary of this leveraged usage and wonder if they makes it weaker on any test.   So far its just kept bubbling up, it went through the 6k area far too easily seems like considering how strongly that held as support for alot of 2018

Cutting everything like a hot knife through butter seems like, hard to gauge whats driving it especially and it may not be one thing.   The largest thing for me is dollar must stay weaker, its effectively negative interest rate

Does it work anywhere, its a simple idea but not worth ever using.   It gets used from being so simple and I guess its deceptive if you ever win, the payoff never justifies the risks taken.      Another reason why it might not work here is they may rotate the code applied to the game, if you were playing a new table every time you set a new bet nobody would except Martingale to work and online I wonder if thats the case without players realising.

They take this measure with national lottery bets often, to stop people calculating a certain result from bias in one particular setup they will often rotate the machines used to produce the national lottery numbers.    It makes it far more unpredictable then continually repeating just one instance, one set of dice, one pack of cards or one roulette wheel I guess.  

  I have heard of machines to calculate roulette wheel odds using a laser to track any bias in its weighting but thats really high level stuff and if they ever change any of the factors the whole deal is ruined, online is so much harder excluding bugs I guess

I'm thinking very similar, I hate to say it because I didnt bet upwards but to break upwards like this appears bullish to me.   I would expect the next week to be positive based on this.



However on a daily bar if it can close back below 8200 then its a failed breakout and that is bearish.   Not thinking it will do that but that would be exception to the rule I guess

True but loose money would cause this anyway, the companies arent wrong as such to buy the shares and especially so where the shares are yielding more then the debt the company borrows at.   Seems justified, Microsoft did that most famously afaik
FOREX > Bonds > shares

Shares dont matter as much, if the company is solid on its debt then its fine to buy shares and so reduce its outgoings on dividend payments.     This is all comes back to abnormal artificial markets for bonds which relates to fiscal debt.   Nobody famous on TV or in politics can really say as much, the deficits are gigantic, the debt allows that and the rates cant alter or all of the budget would be interest costs - insolvency.    Hypocritical reasoning might have politicians going after share buy backs but its kinda political nonsense I'm pretty sure, if they also said lets turn this deficit to a surplus then sure.   Apparently a swing of 16% is required to repay debt, no way is that ever going to happen.  

 I recommend not watching this clip as theres very little anyone on the street can do about this so its just kinda irritating, populism favours more debt for sure


I just see it going sideways and dont feel it must be positive from there.   But it feels alot more positive then previous months and nearly double the price in quite a short term.    I'm positive so long as it stays above some reasonable measure of momentum.    
I dont like the coiling up idea, it can spring either way.  Draw a line under the rising daily lows, its in a reverse crescendo move I guess and bars are generally smaller then previous; this trend will end near term

People wont complain publicly that much because I hope they committed a relatively small amount and posting about their involvement just underlines the loss and the mistake made.   Its common part of a scam that victims wont always speak up about it, through embarrassment basically.
But I do not think badly of anyone involved in this way as its basically an abuse of trust and unfortunately its quite clear even before the close that this contest was not compliant with the law and contained false details.    I dont think theres any chance anyone received anything back from their entry

The point I have to give everyone as a heads up is Trump or the head of China or even the governments and all the various agencies they sit as head of right this moment, these are not the most powerful thing in the galaxy not even the planet or even within each nation.

The most powerful force in any economy is the people, the means of production and the ultimate resource is human beings and we have billions of them which does not make them worthless as indivuals but its often forgotten when we talk about an economy we are talking about these incredible people and each one unique and massively productive.    Trump does not matter, he is an old man and will be gone soon enough maybe even in a couple years.    His ideas just like anyone else must reflect reality of the situation both USA and China find them selves in.

The simple point I want to make is when asked giant questions like this is the power to move economies is a natural phenomena not  politics or tariffs or false accounting and FIAT debt.   If Bitcoin succeeds it will be because it reflects the economy and assists and signals commerce better then normal paper debt manages.    

Bitcointalk profile link: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=124876
Current amount of posts (including this one):  4507
How much merit have you earned in the last 120 days:  17
SegWit BTC Address for Payouts: bc1qae0squck4ztnsym04zts6q9dsvfshynjj9hlzn

Will check back when I next login to see whether Im successful in the application and change my signature as per OP, thanks

Just sounds like normal life, if you arent known on this forum thats the way its going to be.    Stick around a while, take an interest and do some good business and its not that long a wait I hope.   I do think there isnt enough merits available to good new members who take part in the forum properly.   They have to get like 100 to step upto the next rank?   thats like asking toddlers to hop through giant footsteps, the scale required on that part is probably incorrect but having some process new people must go through is really correct.

The merit sources thing is a little bit too exclusive, thats my view obviously its down to Thermos what his vision is but if he wants all the ranks accessible I think the merit system requires more liquidity.   Maybe loosen it up a little but allow -merit, people would probably love that tbh like its a game :p

It wont have to beat banks because banks will destroy themselves as a satellite of central banking its likely the reserves of most banks will be wiped out and fail as a secure centre of capital because of that bias to government.

Bitcoin doesnt have to replace banks because its more a currency then the organisation to replace anything else, its a means to an end.

I wanted to post this where it could be seen, a fund manager in charge of billions points out the total debt oweable is 600% of GDP and it is not likely possible to ever repay this debt properly.   It makes it far more likely the whole system will revolve to something that works better rather then change slightly in terms we might currently recognise -

https://youtu.be/I-BE8JQwCS0?t=783

Here is an example below, I think also not allowing a brand new account these privileges would help.    The very basic scam which I presume works enough times, is he asks for payment first and delivers zero.

To me the main danger comes from the brand new account with no history, similar things happen on twitter with crypto addresses as part of it.   When I first signed upto the forum we posted in the newbies section and otherwise read only in the other parts of the forum, then after a while you learnt a bit and could post.  Now day 1 there is a burden of dealing with the immediate risk of accounts with no history to them.
A newbie should at least require an advocate to co sign a new thread ?

^^ Thats a good compromise, someone known to the forum should have far more ability and discretion then somebody who only just appeared and is far more likely to operate in a way outside forum rules as they are not even taking part in discussions for much time.

I think self mod is a positive but the posts should remain viewable by at least some as an option, so they dont display as part of the discussion but as an option are revealable on request.    Obviously if this is possible the participants on the thread can call out any bad action to deceive but it also gives OP the ability to remove rubbish and OT posts from the flow of conversation


I saw that recently and thought it should be displayed as clearly for everyone, on new accounts that start threads at least

Thats the only advantage FB coin would have over proper crypto, convenience and perceived stability.    I think actually a positive move for encouraging the idea of using online blockchains as digital currency and in the end Bitcoin will be found to be superior on a number of fronts.   Improving the convenience and any sharp edges Bitcoin might have for the average user is increasingly important as its exposure passes the normal technology aware contingent to just normal users


Regarding Russians buying massive amounts of Bitcoin as a kind of reserve, they increased buying of gold far more recently - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwOcWWv-0Ho
The reason why its really unlikely Russia or any government of size is involved with Bitcoin is any move they make would make a large splash, more of a tidal wave in the available Bitcoins in circulation.   It does not explain the recent rise, I believe that was a reaction to dollar liquidity and the move would be far larger for any actual direct buying from a public purse.
Its not impossible Russia might hold some BTC but it would be tiny amounts, pocket change compared to anything substantial on their balance sheets.    China I think is carefully disguising just how much gold they are accumulating, becoming the worlds largest producer is not especially obvious when they are soaking up that production by also being the worlds largest buyer.    The Chinese government also buy up gold mines where they can, I was involved in one that became non viable when Gold lost its last spike and was absorbed into that command economy where private and public interests are merged at will  

  If you are the worlds largest buyer by far you have the advantage of knowing the schedule and likely pricing of gold long term far exceeds the price at which this mine operates, meaning they can buy up an insolvent mine at fire sale prices when in fact the gold resource at that mine is highly profitable still.    The Chinese buy many mines in this way while being the largest 'consumer' of gold and many other commodities.   In some cases Chinese are blocked from buying a national resource but they certainly acquire mines at advantageous prices while market prices are suppressed.    The Chinese were blocked from buying Potash of Saskatchewan for example, with the company being merged into a larger private entity rather then absorbed by a foreign government in this way.

China nor Russia wont declare their interests openly and take measures to avoid front running but I dont think either is accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve currency.   Gold can rise to 10,000 an ounce, it can certainly double meanwhile but both these buyers have no interest in causing that price to become apparent.   If I thought they were operating in Bitcoin markets in a similar way I'd say but so far theres no sign or excuse to favour that theory  imo

Useful thanks, there is also pricedingold tracking something similar



I shorted Bitcoin a bit, it closed automatically at some small profit and price has gone right back up.   Guess I cant complain and maybe its bullish.   Target to test is 8200 as a ceiling and I dont presume this is positively more then sideways till it closes above that previous daily bar with confidence.
I go with the ironic take that now 200 day average is rising, we should go back and meet it medium term.   Shorter term any negative in the price I'd take profits at 6609 and 6178 as its most likely to bounce in this range while catching everyone out

Whats happening now is the first time its ever happened in history.   We have a united effort to print money in excess of growth or justification of trade increasing not just in one country but across the majority of the worlds most dominant economies.
So we have printing in USA, UK, Japan, EURO and much of the rest of the world who dont want to fall out of line and suffer any idea of a problem with trade vs these weaker currency standard countries.

What should eventually result is that it is found that a strong currency is beneficial to at least one country with a vital product it can export regardless of consumers ability to afford.   The normal status of demand exceeding supply and demand or production of goods in demand being the most important component to a growing economy.

The confusion stems from politics and agreements between countries to work together no matter what.   Thats a positive force except where all parties agree to do the wrong thing, which is the case with increased debt that is never repaid.   We should see this fall over at some point as money is better directed elsewhere, but I dont know how that happens exactly and how much pain might occur with that upset and reorganisation.

Theres alot to be said for the simple idea of reading a book, I dont think anything electronic is as good tbh


I'd rather go on what Russia did previously more then anything they say they will do or reports on that.    Russia and China have both have a very strong policy towards replacing foreign reserves with gold, they sell currency in favour of owning more gold.  They import, they produce and there is no export, they are net buyers.   They did that this year, last year, the year before and all the way back for over a decade.    World wide central banks have been net buyers of gold, its a really simple theme but its physical ownership rather then token ownership via various FIAT standards or trade agreements that might have existed previously.   
I dont know exactly what they plan to do with it exactly and Russia is already massively biased to commodity prices for its GDP but I'd say there is no doubt sanctions or not they intend to use gold over any other type of fungible currency.   Ten years is a very long period for an active policy vs any recent news of various other initiatives

The recovery from lows has been far faster this time, the only reasoning I think of why that happen is at the same time the similar kind of reversal to reasoning by the Federal reserve (last hard statement was December) in proposing a continual scheme of rising interest rates no matter what; but now seemingly being on a path to completely stop and probably lower rates if any weakness in the economy occurs.
Until the fiscal deficit and probably the trade deficit is closed and probably requiring a surplus, I see USD as weakening over years but the market doesn't immediately reflect that and its related to retention of dollar debt vs alternatives.  When the ECB has such a weak policy itself and is also involved in QE, the EURO is unlikely to be much an alternative and the Euro bond market is taken up with ECB buying so far as I know.   Japan again the market is saturated with new money via QE so again the currency is unlikely to be as strong as it should be vs the dollar.    If there is currency weakness worldwide now and predicted ongoing, theres little to oppose BTC or any asset price especially if demand for that commodity is growing.

That big switch in sentiment on global reserve money might explain some of the reversal, I dont know if BTC price after that initial reaction then loses momentum and goes sideways after bouncing so high.   I spotted this idea of a parabolic rise but a giant rise without pulling back I think is not as positive longterm for stability, I would not guess this happens so soon.


Right this moment I see the price as bouncing between two moving average in an increasingly tight range, it seems to be it will breakout but so far price moving downwards has not settled far for long before returning to a similar price under 8000

I love stats so I appreciate all the efforts made on lists, graphs even and data collected like this.

I wont regret giving Merits to newbies for making a good forum post especially those with zero Merit because I think thats the first purpose of the Merit, to kick start people in the right direction on the forum.    I do think Merit system might be slightly illiquid in circulating Merit but its deliberately deflationary I guess.     Merit to lowest post counts, newbie accounts has got to be the most risky allocation of Merits because those profiles are new, unknown to the forum and the main danger I think is that they made a good post but they took it from somewhere else and its not their content.

The sort by percentage long list is the one I rate as it seems to correlate far more with bad instances and that catching upto the issuer as well.   Also I'm much lower by percentage so I prefer that one