Disappointment is human nature if what is targeted is not achieved, such as the crypto market is getting down and it makes a lot of people disappointed. To avoid disappointment in crypto investment is to invest as much as we can to lose, crypto is risky and if it cannot accept losses, then do not over-invest.
These happen when expectations are not met. If you're not expecting a bull run any time soon, then an extended bear market wouldn't have come as that much of a surprise. And you could've in a way prepared for it as well. Managing expectations avoid disappointments most of the time. you summarized everything i had to say, i would have given you a 100 merit if i had them  |
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Hello world.
So I've a small advice for everyone a bit new around here... Get a storage wallet.
Not mandatory a hardware wallet of course but get a wallet that you won't use daily, somewhere where your coins are safe and not too easily accessible.
Because otherwise with the amount of opportunities and tentations you're going to go all in in too much opportunities, one is doomed to fail and you'll lose it all.
I'm giving this advice because since I've got a hardware wallet I've finally managed to split my profits from investments between reinvesting and storing.
Before that I ended mainly losing my profits because I reinvested everything all the time...
So get a storage wallet, and split your profits.
Thanks for the advice,it sure does work for some people, however i think what is more important is self-discipline. someone with an ichy hand to trade or spend will not find a problem walking 10 miles to his paper-wallet that is buried in their grandmother's back yard. one needs to make a straight forward plan and stick to it. for example a distribution of his earning and total hodling. - a % of everything be it new earned coins from mining/trading/buying must be kept in a cold storage wallet and never touched until x point of time - a % to cash out regardless of market condition , also out of this part it should be distributed , maybe in Gold,stock,JPY,AUD (just to hedge against your hodlings) - a % to risk at either day trading/mining. i started to follow a plan like this recently and my overall situation looks much better, i was so stupid to re-invest everything i get into mining hardware thinking it was the best option, bought some miners when btc was trading at 10-12k, which some have yet to ROI and now they are selling for almost 70-90% cheaper. i should have cashed out a good portion,i would have more btc and more miners by now. but ya nobody learns for free, we have to pay for every lesson. |
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What do you mean by more adoption? people are fleeing in droves, have been for months. How is that more adoption than last Dec when people were coming aboard in droves? coins are being distributed---that doesn't mean users are disappearing. on the contrary: according to a recent study, cryptocurrency users doubled this year in spite of the crash. And wtf do you mean nobody cares about fundamentals? for one, that isn't true. And for another, anyone looking to make money sure as fuck isn't going to stick it in the sinking rat ship of cryptocurrencies.
Wise ass.
its true that fundamentals aren't particularly important for price---price can go irrationally far in either direction regardless of fundamentals. that's just markets for ya. bitcoin in particular is hyper speculative because of its extremely scarce supply and lack of liquidity vs growing adoption. what matters most for price is sentiment, hype, and speculation about the future. scaling limitations are way down on the list---the typical investor doesn't know or care about them. people were talking down the fundamentals and scaling weaknesses like you since before the 2013 bubble too. then bears employed the same arguments in 2016 and 2017 because fees were rising so much, but we bubbled again anyway. nobody cares about slow confirmation times and high fees when they think they can 10x or 100x their investments. thanks for explaining to him , i think people do not understand that adoption and price are not entirety related or attached to one another. what WinslowIII is also misunderstanding that just because price is going down it means adoption is decreasing. I am not very fluent in English but i do think his understanding of "adoption" is not right. plus, I do not understand why is he mad at me ? he could be losing money , might have bought btc for 15k and still hodling ! but this is not my mistake ! i am here trying to help for absolutely FREE of charge, if it is so hard for you to say THANK YOU then at least do not be rude. Good luck |
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I don’t know if the market is still going to drop below this $3,401. I hope this is the bottom price. What most of us expected to happen this year, it just didn’t happen how we expected it to happen. I thought that by now there would have been a Bull, but instead the price keeps dropping and has circulating between $3.3k and $3.6k. I hope it doesn’t go below that and drop down to $2k,cause that wouldn’t be a good thing for the market.
there is nothing interesting about 3401, the actual support area is actually a little under it, it's 2900-3100 depending on the exchange and whether it is against USD or USDT. also what matters now is the daily close, as we could easily have a wick all the way down to 2500-2600 and still close above 3000$, so what we should be looking at is a daily candle close, as long as we do not close below it, it makes more sense to buy, the moment we close below the support, we short the market with SL being above 3k as it will act as the new resistance. regardless of what type of a trader you are, i suggest you stick to larger frames when we approach the support area, because the volatility at the level can be crazy and many SLs will be hit,bang bang ! |
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it is scary in my opinion too but not because the two drops are similar (since they have absolutely no similarity) but only because the chart of these two times looks the same!
which makes wonder about the reason why we ended up seeing the same chart when the situation today has nothing in common with the situation back in 2013.
It's purely speculation of course, but it could very well be institutions messing up the market behind the scenes. I really expected the situation to be different this time, because the fundamentals have improved significantly, but the users (i.e. get rich quick noobs) here are exactly the same as how they were back in 2013/2014/2015. It's almost like a routine market shake-out. I didn't expect it to be this similar, but at least I managed to pick up the valuable inputs from the current bear market which I can have work in my advantage after the next bull run. It's all about learning from our mistakes and to not underestimate the market. I got a bit too comfortable with the $6000 level, and I'm sure many more people have. this is very true , most traders were so comfortable with the 5.8k to 6k level, i was one of them, i had bunch of buy orders on that levels, and it paid out throughout the whole of 2018 , except for the last test, where i did lose quite a good amount, but the best part about TA is that the chart sometimes gives you a clear sign saying SELL the shit and get out. i made this warning topic here after the break of the support > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48030883#msg48030883many people mock my TA's or in fact TA in general, and keep living under the illusion of "whales control the market" while that could be true, but small fish like us can make use of charts. i sold everything including ALTs when btc broke that support which was about 5600$. if i was to re-buy now, i will have almost doubled my BTC holding. as we can not be sure of where exactly the bottom may be, i personally started loading BTC with more buying orders all the way down to 2.5k but should that level break i will short and wait for the next support at 1800$, if it fails, short and wait for 1100$. if you are not protecting your investments with a SL behind major supports then you are simply taking a one way ticket to rekt city. I suggest to everybody to start learning TA, i see many people now calling for 1k and selling at this level which is very stupid, noobs always sell at the very wrong time, even if the price is going to 1k it is very wrong to sell now while we are just above this major support. |
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Why are we close to bottom? what fundamentally has changed? bitcoin still can't scale for shit, ethereum scam icos have been halted, China is totally out unlike back in 2014, the altcoin market is deader than a doornail thanks to kyc gov intervention and crackdown on scammers. Why would people buy crypto right now? Nobody's falling for a fomo pump, so all I can see is down.
Fundamentals now are better than last Dec , how is that relevant to price? BTC now has more adoption,more projects and in general it is technically and fundamentally stronger than it was during last year end, yet we are almost 85% down from ATH. i can tell you one thing and one thing for sure. nobody gives a fuck about fundamentals, investors will buy something that they can sell for a higher price and that's all about it. look at all the shit coins in the market, billions of $ are put in when nobody believes in any of those projects, but they buy them to sell them later for a higher price. so regardless of how bad fundamentals are, btc is going up so that it could be dumped again. rinse and repeat. |
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 looking at the monthly chart i can see 3 reason on why 2500-3000 could be the bottom of this bear market. 1- The 50 Moving Average has only been tested twice and price never closed under it. 2-The last bear market of 2014-2015 we had almost exactly 85% drop from ATH which meets the target of the current value of the 50MA 3-This support area is very crucial and important for the bears as there is almost no major support until 1100$ * even though the target is actually of the 50MA 2900$ but a wick could go 10% lower marking anywhere from 2500$-2600$, yet the body of the candle after closing should not close below 2900$ *if this scenario plays out , expect a sideways market for about 300 days ! * however during this market we can see up to 90% increase in price. before another decline to form the double bottom * if 2500 is the lowest of the wick then we could rally up to 5k next year Q1 most likely after Bakkt launch.------------- should this support fail then we are simply screwed . |
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Actually the assumption is impossible. No asset class in history I believe has crashed to a $1 “Overnight” . Even if it were to crash to a low price it would take many months, maybe years. When a company’s stocks tumble because of liquidation it takes months, years too until it’s delisted.
If on other less regulated market places it did, short sellers could easily arbitrage and for $5 in insurance would buy 5 Bitcoin and run the token into zero value.
your views?
nothing is impossible, everything is possible. but the likelihood for such thing happening is very low. |
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Guys guys guys, we are getting very close to the bottom of this support channel, depending on the exchange you are watching it could be anything from 2600 to 2800 . but basically we are looking at the high of 5th Jun 2017, which is also the low of 11th sep 2017. this is a critical moment for bitcoin. a break below with a full candle including the body will be the worst drop of this year.
possible scerinos : 1- a test of the 2800$ with a huge wick followed buy massive green candles to the up side with a fast rally to potentially 4k
2- a break through, panic, huge red candles.
depending on the shape of the candle ( price action ) you should know if you are selling or buying.
I am personally in short positions, i am starting to close my positions slowly all the way to 2800$, i might get into some long positions if i see a price reaction, in fact i got a few orders sitting between 2500-2700 hoping for them to be activated. but i will close with loss if the at least 4hr candle closes below the support.
stay safe.
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That's why people always say diversify your investments. Even the stock market could collapse as you can see and there is nothing you can do to actually stop the bleeding in crypto yourself hence even investing into those two won't be enough in days like these. Hence when you are investing remember that there are other options than just stocks and crypto, diversify all of them at once and get into more stuff.
For example, if you are investing into stocks do that with 10+ stocks, when you are investing into crypto do that with 5+ crypto currencies but also have some gold aside, if you can invest into some real estate projects, put money into bonds and many more stuff like that. If you do that than in return you will have a safer option and even if all of them drop at the same time at least you will know that economy can't continue to drop all the time.
100% agree with diversity. also some times not investing in anything is the best investment. honestly the whole stock market is setting up for a massive dip based on charts, 2019 is not going to be kind to most people in my opinion. |
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My "lastshare" has been stuck at 15445xxxxx for WEEKS now!!!
Any explanation for this?
Yes: Nobody got a better share in that time, thats all. Nothing to worry about. Mine on What is the reason behind this? How were the shares higher before difficulty drop and now it's stuck? same reason you can toss a pair of dice 1000 times and not toss a pair of 6's for a total of 12. Random luck Random luck i get.. But tens of miners having the same exact lastshare +- 500 is not random at all lol lol so is mine but this is really just random. |
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I will eat my **** if does |
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The best to not be very disappointed is by actually being prepared for the worst. if you know what could and may happen then you will be less vulnerable.
Many people are losing their minds and money over this bearish trend, the problem with average Joe is that they usually enter the market at the very wrong time, and leave it in the worst time .
Crypto market just as in every other market is nothing but how W.buffet defined it "a mechanism for the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the paitient"
what you need to understand that every market consist of 3 main phases that must repeat every now and then.
Bull period : > could be the worst time to enter aka people who bought for 19k last year
This is something like 2017 where price moved from around 900$ to 20,000$ in a year gaining around 2000%
it's also something similar to Sep 2013 to Dec 2013 when price moved from 95$ to 1100$ in 4 months
Bear period: > a better time to enter
From end 2013 to Jan 2015 price entered a bear market from 1170 to 160$ ( lasted almost a year)
From Dec 2017 to present !
Sideways : > the best time to enter
From Jan 2015 to Nov 2015 price remained in a sideways market for almost a year before starting a new bull run,
expected to begin around Q1 2019
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in fact if you open any stock chart that has a data of say 30-50-70 years and watch it closely, it will look very similar to bitcoin chart, these market cycles are a MUST.
the only thing that may change is the length of each of these periods, the current bear market does not have to exactly last the same as the 2013-2015 bear market, it could be longer or shorter , but rest assure that as soon as we stop making new lower lows, we will not go back to ATH the next month of two, the sideways market has to come before that.
the good thing about crypto being still a small market , is that even in it's sideways market it can still do 50-100% moves, so for those who trade they can still find positions to enter, but for the holders, really sorry there is nothing much you can do beside being prepared for the average scenario which is based on the crypto history with estimate figures tells us this.
a bear market continues to 2019 Jan, with small corrections to the upside before making new lows.
Q1,Q2,Q3 of 2019 are nothing but a side way market where price will keep bouncing from whichever the bottom will be which according to history repeating itself is anywhere from 1 to 3k, and then Q4 2019 or Q1 2020 a new bull run takes place.
make no mistake this is crypto ( a very small market cap ) a rally of 100% to 6k now MEANS NOTHING , every rally up will be sold out as long as we do not hit a quite long sideways market.
this is the average scenario of history repeating itself. which IMO is very likely to play out. so as a holder who do not know how to sell/buy what you should do is simply invest only what you can afford to lose, and be prepared for a scenario that says the price you bough for is never going to show up until 2020, so if you bough for 9k and now you don't know what to do, i suggest you get busy with something else and only check once in a few months, other wise you will give in and trust me the moment you do , the bull market will start.
now indeed this is not a financial advice what so ever, but I know that once you are prepared for what could possibly happen, you will avoid disappointments.
Good luck.
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I can tell you one thing for sure, that there is no place BTC can't go to. from a million $ to 0. everything is possible. but i rather take it 1 step at the time by using charts , i know many people think TA is bullshit, but it really what most people use to make decisions therefore many sell / buy at the same point creating both fomo and panic. so you need to watch the levels that traders are watching to act accordingly.
we first need to see the overall chart, bearish/down trend ! , it is always easier to keep moving in the same direction than changing to the other direction, so price tends to keep dropping until it does not. so we look at the potential areas of where btc could bounce from.
Levels of major supports
2700-3000$
1700-1900$
800-1200$
these are historical numbers that prices bounced from, so many buying positions as well as short SL sit around them, breaking each level will give more chances for price to go to the next lower level. so if we break below 2700$ then rest assure that we are very likely going to 1900$ and there will be no level of interset for major traders to buy anywhere in between as there is no Historical support there.
Next Resistance.
3700-3800$
4400-4500$
5500-5600$
as long as we are still above 2700 then the bulls are holding , the movement we close below 2700 rest assure the selling pressure will reach they sky.
same thing goes to breaking 3700, if we close above it, chances are we headed towards 4400$
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as an overall analysis of this current bear trend, the most support that makes sense is the high of 2014 which is 1100$ , the second option is 2700$. there support from 2700 to 1100 is rather weak and i do not it has any technical or physiological reasons for a rebound from there, also there is a very good chance we remain in a side way market from 1 to 4k for another whole year before moving any higher. so be prepared for the worst.
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I never believe in those predictions and charts analysis.
Simply, you can't predict Bitcoin price by reading and analysing a chart.
The market is manipulated by whales and news spread on Medias and you can't see them both in these charts.
so how do you place your entries/exists ? magic ball? or just hodl from 20k to 3k? i would like to know of a WORKING way other than TA. thanks. |
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It doesn't matter if you feel confident that this rally will continue in a prolonged manner, but the nature of the market cannot be nailed just like that, because we don't know what will happen tomorrow or the coming week at the price of bitcoin, maybe the price will suddenly rise ( deviated from what you said). Sorry, that's the only hope I have at the moment.
well if the price rises and the trend turns fully bullish then sure as hell i will buy, I do not like catching falling knives, everything now points to lower prices, even if we shot to 6k the next hour this does not change the overall sentiment of this extra-bearish market. I think the biggest mistake one can make is blindly catching a falling knife simply because they are afraid to miss the bottom. |
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I am aware that there are 2 types of locked phones, one is stolen and reported via findmyipone therefor it is black listed, another one is simply forgetting your login details and your phone gets locked after a software upgrade.
this is my wife's personal Iphone 5s, she bought it brand new and she was the one who set up the icould account couple years ago, so i am very certain 100% sure that it's not black listed what so ever.
I am aware of some methods that can unlock the non-blacklisted phones which is limited to some people ! , so if you can unlock this iphone 5s please post here or better send me a PM.
thanks.
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hopefully we will get another 15% drop in 8 days, that will be a total of 30% , could take us back to June-May difficulty. i have a good feeling about the coming days. we just need to see btc dropping more in price so that the difficulty follow along.
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