'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.
Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.
Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence... and sustainable? absolutely :-) NP (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years) So, a revolutionary application of cryptography that is extremely useful as "internet money" is perfectly normal? Happens every other year? Guess not. Prepare for another green candle everytime politicians or fed chairmen make a decision regarding monetary policy or taxes. Expect a green candle every time a hard-working African pays outrageous fees to wire home money to his loved ones. Expect a green candle everytime a banker decides to give out an interest-bearing loan and creates money out of thin air. Excpect a green candle every time a consumer at the gas station figures out not gas has become more expensive, but his money has become worth less. Hell, expect a whole christmas tree of green candles! I think Odalv is correct. good post. but price still needs to correct. that's all im sayin. A "correction" (there has been some debate over the definition, maybe better say "pullback") of up to 30% wouldn't surprise me. We haven't seen a real selling panic in a long time and I don't see a reason it can't happen. Just because it didn't happen on the last 6 dumps doesn't mean it can't. However I agree with many that the market is much more prudent nowadays. Also: currently there is not much in the sense of automatically triggering sells (like bitcoinica forced liquidation) currently effective (true?). People might have some stop-loss orders somewhere, I don't deny that, but most of the leveraged trading happens through derivatives (futures, options) nowadays and I'm not sure how it's handled exactly, but I don't think liquidation of a leveraged short position in bitcoin futures on platforms like icbit.se for example would result in a real market sell. Can anyone more knowledgable than me shed some light? |
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So I went to ripple.com/graph, entered my own address, switched currency to BTC and tried to click on every address that trusts me (incoming link). This is the result:  |
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I've created an offer selling 0.01 'molecular BTC' for 0.0096 'bitstamp BTC'. (No offense, molecular!)
Your molecular BTC are now mine... Good deal too, as he promised to honor his IOU at 100%. I guess I just made 0.0004 BTC, now I'll wait till it's valued in gazillons of dollars before asking molecular to redeem it... Buahaha! is rnZoUopPFXRSVGdeDkgbqdft8SbXfJxKYh your address? congrats on owning one of the most trustworthy BTC IOUs in ripple. To redeem, post a bitcoin address here, then transfer the IOUs to me. |
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Ok, I'm intrigued by this BTC/BTC trading thing so let's have a go:
I've created an offer selling 0.01 'molecular BTC' for 0.0096 'bitstamp BTC'. (No offense, molecular!)
molecular: rpH3zuMch2GrrYX724xGWwbMGwiQ5RbSAU
bitstamp: rvYAfWj5gh67oV6fW32ZzP3Aw4Eubs59B
Any takers?
You should see the offer if you choose bitstamp as the base currency issuer and molecular as counter currency issuer.
I can't see it:  EDIT: because it's been bought. |
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Do you include the plastic capsule (happy for an extra charge if needed)
Unfortunately I don't have any plastic capsule. I've been thinking about this, but it would make shipping more expensive because the letter would then probably exceed size limits and it would add weight. I ship the coins in little ziploc plastic bags. This isn't particularly beautiful but protects them very well. You can probably get a capsule at a local coin collectors shop. If more people request this, I will reconsider. |
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Hiya,
I have sorted out my wallet and would like to order 1 for shipment to UK address please.
Stibit
no problem. pay BTC 1.48 to 17VzGT9GMDQ6bJLJFMwVyDbx37tF31naj4 and PM me your shipping info. |
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I can just see trying to push a cashless society on Germany. The Germans like their 'Bargeld' very much, thank you, and many businesses there do not even take credit cards, or take them only over certain fairly high transaction limits. My Visa card was almost useless in Berlin last time I visited; luckily I had a usable ATM card.
Don't underestimate the power of the media. They can make cash look like something dirty, something only a homeless person or criminal would use... even in germany. I'm having trouble deciding wether or not this is good or bad for bitcoin in the long run. On the one hand it's extremely good, because bitcoin offers a way around this prohibition. On the other hand, should cash be banned or made to be perceived as being "the way to pay for bad people", it'd be way too easy for "the law" to just put bitcoin right into that cash category and make bitcoin payments (above a certain amount) illegal. Providers could be pressured to filter bitcoin traffic. Of course there's ways around that, but the effect this would have on public perception would be huge. Add the media spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt and quickly bitcoins image could be back to where it was in 2011 ("that criminal internet hacker money laundering drug dealer currency") or worse... Not so good, I guess. |
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'Bubble' might not be accurate, since we don't have the massive upward spikes ($4+ the same hour) that we had in early June 2011.
Very Short-term: We have had several dramatic, 'healthy' corrections.
Medium-term: We are way over-due for a (temporary) big dive, and the longer it's put off, then the more massive it will be.
Ah man, you were so close to actually being right and then you got to that last sentence... and sustainable? absolutely :-) NP (still very cheap bitcoins, in even short term 1-3 years) So, a revolutionary application of cryptography that is extremely useful as "internet money" is perfectly normal? Happens every other year? Guess not. Prepare for another green candle everytime politicians or fed chairmen make a decision regarding monetary policy or taxes. Expect a green candle every time a hard-working African pays outrageous fees to wire home money to his loved ones. Expect a green candle everytime a banker decides to give out an interest-bearing loan and creates money out of thin air. Excpect a green candle every time a consumer at the gas station figures out not gas has become more expensive, but his money has become worth less. Hell, expect a whole christmas tree of green candles! I think Odalv is correct. |
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I have made a lot of money over the past 12 years with ecommerce. I've sold all sorts of products, both tangible and digital. Here are my recommendations in doing better. - Get rid of the image slider. Research and multiple tests have shown that they reduce conversion rates. They may be good for a blog to have, but they should never be used on an ecommerce website. Source: http://conversionxl.com/dont-use-automatic-image-sliders-or-carousels-ignore-the-fad/- The Free Shipping & The Toll Free information - this should be on the top of the page. Not at the bottom. These are trust builders. Does nothing if they are at the bottom. - People who don't know what Bitcoins is are not going to buy the tshirts. There is no need to waste prime screen space in educating them about Bitcoins. They are not the audience you should be focusing on. - Get rid of the social media interaction tools from the footer - twitter and facebook. Its a waste of time for an ecommerce website (unless you are using them to spread your "coupons" and gift certificates). Focus on sales. Not social media. Instead, move the Newsletter form over there. - Reduce the choices you provide on the first page. The less options you provide, the more sales you'll make. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/27/your-money/27shortcuts.html?_r=0 (Read about the jam research case study. When people were given a choice of 24 jams, 3% of them bought. But when they were given a choice of 6 jams, 30% of them bought.) I would recommend showing just 6 tshirts. And then providing a "More" button that shows 6 more tshirts dynamically below that. - On the home page, I would also only show the top 6 "best selling" t-shirts. Don't showcase the latest 6 t-shirts. Or don't show random t-shirts. Show the highest selling ones. - It would also be better to show the actual tshirts. And not just the artwork. More people will buy when they can see what the tshirt looks like, and they don't have to imagine how it will look like. - On the product page, have a "Buy Now" button. Not just a "Add to cart" button. This will drastically reduce confusion and increase sales. - Get rid of the "Add to compare" and "Send to friend" options. Reduce the number of call to actions you provide. Because the more call to actions you provide, the less sales you will make. - The checkout page. Don't ask people to signup before they make a sale. This really reduces the conversion rates - even when you offer Guest checkouts. (Instead, automatically sign them up and send them a password on their first sale - to make repeat purchases easier.) Source: How removing the signup option increased sales by 300 million for one company: http://www.uie.com/articles/three_hund_million_button- Having a 4 page checkout process will reduce the conversion rates, as more people will abandon the checkout process. Its better to just have a 1 page checkout - and have a longer checkout form. Source: http://www.abtests.com/test/65001/other-for-single-page-vs--multi-step-checkoutSeriously, spend some time going through the checkout processes of huge multi million ecommerce websites. They test things constantly and know what is working. This is a good primer: http://blog.kissmetrics.com/40-checkout-page-strategies/Excellent suggestions. Will execute on most of these. Now you made me pull some of my asks  |
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just watched this talk by doug casey: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ryD5lqRM-Tw (I think it was posted here but can't find the post). Watch that video (especially the 2ndish part about getting yourself and your wealth out of the country). Then look my avatar straight in the eye and say: "Bitcoin is in a bubble". |
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"Grandpa, is it true that you had one whole bitcoin when you were young?"
"Yeah, about that... maybe now is a good time to tell you. You know I had been jailed and tortured back in the days of the civil war when I got captured by the western cartel forces in the 2020s? You know... I had been carrying this through all this time of hardship. I still have this Casascius 1 BTC coin *whips out casascius coin*. It was in my asshole for 23 years and now I can finally pass it on to you". EDIT: gladly we have brainwallets. |
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the more people missing the train or the more people on the bitcoin train? This isn't 2010 or 2011; bitcoin is here to stay.
If all works out as planned, noone will have missed the train in the end. The question is just how fast you need to run to hop on and wether or not you get a nice seat in the dining car. |
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you don't hear James Turk mentioning it all in any of the many interviews he's given since interviewing Felix de la Cova either. they are fighting it. and no wonder, they are all deeply entwined in the gold trade. and/or a 350million market cap and steady bull market doesn't have much appeal for rick rule that's too bad for him; this is precisely the type of market he should be looking to frontrun. exactly! |
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you don't hear James Turk mentioning it all in any of the many interviews he's given since interviewing Felix de la Cova either. they are fighting it. and no wonder, they are all deeply entwined in the gold trade. and/or a 350million market cap and steady bull market doesn't have much appeal for rick rule why not? He seems to love 100-baggers. |
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you don't hear James Turk mentioning it all in any of the many interviews he's given since interviewing Felix de la Cova either. they are fighting it. and no wonder, they are all deeply entwined in the gold trade. Sometimes I wonder if they are acquiring. If they really thought bitcoin was a good idea... would they blurt it out to their sheeple right away? I'm not sure... these people seem to often make a point about being transparent and not front-running their customers and all that, but hell: with bitcoin, who would even be able to notice? |
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Due to some members of the community voicing their opinions of ZigGap's reputation, a decision was made to postpone the
release of the last 7.5 million shares until we feel the community has accepted ZigGap, and that we have further proven ourselves.
I feel this is a very good decision. How are you going to decide on the price once the time has come? I made some rough calculations (based on a share-price of 0.0001 BTC/share): Given you make a monthly profit of $1000 (conservative?), dividends are 0.62% per month, 7.44% p.a. Given you make a monthly profit of $2000 (optimistic?), dividends are 1.24% per month, 15.9% p.a. Given you make a monthly profit of $3000 (very optimistic?), dividends are 1.86% per month, 24.7% p.a. Given you make a monthly profit of $5000 (ultra-optimistic?), dividends are 3.1% per month, 44.25% p.a. This can be a good investment, even in bitcoin-terms. What are your expectation of monthly profits? I see you're updating current profits daily in bitfunder description. Are you going to keep doing that? Yes we plan to update this occasionally as time allows. I have made an update for today. Gross numbers for the month of March. Cumulative: As of March 1st, 2013: Volume: $4,002.34 Gross profit (after Bitcoin cost, before other expenses) $134.73 So this is the profit (before other expenses) for exactly 1 day? How high are "other expenses"? Even if these are $34 per day, this already puts us roughly into the "very optimistic" category from above with a sound 25%/year ROI. |
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I'm seeing the signs of a bubble in the making. I think we're in the beginning or in the middle of a big bubble. Current price isn't too overpriced yet though. There is also the possibility that massive developments will happen in the Bitcoin world this spring and later this year which means that the actual growth of the Bitcoin economy might catch up with the price. That means a "massive dive" might not even happen. It depends on how overpriced we become relative to how the economy is growing.
Value of bitcoin is at least 95% derived from it's function as a store-of-value. I think this needs to come first. Only when we reach some sort of an equilibrium there will the world economy start using "purely bitcoin". Of course in the meantime bit-pay, sr et al thrive on the transactional features of bitcoin. They use it to transfer fiat, though. buyer acquires bitcoin -> bitcoin is transferred -> seller sells bitcoin. To fullfill that function you don't need a price of $35, 0.25 USD/BTC would suffice for that function. That would require the hoarders to release their coins of course (which they don't do specifically because they use them as a store-of-value). On another note: I don't understand the concepts of "overpriced" or "fair price". The price is made at the market and that's the current fair price. Everyone agrees on that, otherwise there would be a trade and therefore a price-move. |
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The true value that bitcoin holds and the possibilities of its future uses are starting to be realized by more than just a few select individuals. I have had random people at the bar ask me what I do, and respond, "oh yeah, I've heard of that bitcoin thing." And they usual say it with intrigue. We're not at critical mass, but we're approaching it. And if it is reached, bitcoin will be the investment of all our lives. I don't recommend selling unless you are a day trader.
this. well-said. hold on to your coins. |
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So yeah, while Bitcoin can't be inflated from within, it's still susceptible external shocks. For now I'm happy that those shocks are pushing its exchange rate UP  This is why if LTC or any other alt-coin actually gains ground, even temporarily, all that will happen is completely undo BTC and all cryptocoin all together. One of the major, if not THE major, advancement and promises of bitcoin is that it is resistant to inflation due to the hard cap of 21million. If, it turns out, any two-bit script kiddie with 5 friends can effectively do so by creating a sperg-coin or what have you then people will be fully capable of extrapolating and realize the whole experiment is a bust. That said, I also think this is the exact reason that any alt-coin won't gain ground. Enough people are smart enough to realize this and not fall for it. When talking about inflation we have to keep in mind there's inflation of the money supply (well-known in advance for bitcoin) and in-/defaltion of prices. Bitcoin makes no promise about prices, it just promises a certain pre-defined behaviour of it's money supply. Now, talking about stuff like a possible deflationary spiral does not make much sense unless bitcoin is at least a major currency. Before a substantial amount of people use bitcoin for their daily shopping and b2b is using bitcoin heavily, there can be no danger for the world economy incurred by bitcoin. On the way there (to bitcoin becoming a major currency), there will be another interesting effect: bitcoin is actually inflating the world money supply, because bitcoin can and is being used as fiat substitute. When someone buys 1 BTC from a miner for €25, that miner will spend the €25 in the world economy. That fiat isn't gone. However let's say bitcoin is also actively being used as a currency for payments and also as a store of wealth... The buyer might buy something with his newly acquired bitcoin and the seller of the good might just keep the bitcoin or pass it on to his suppliers (clearly not the case today: he would nowadays typically have to trade it for fiat to pay his suppliers and could keep (and/or spend) his profit at most in bitcoin). Thus now we have 1 BTC and €25 both being used as money within the world economy and have effectively increased the money supply. The ECB paper contains the related story of the Q-Coin in China: The third aspect to examine is the interaction between the virtual currencies and the real economy.
Second Life and Bitcoin users are spread around the globe and therefore their impact should also be
interpreted globally. However, if a virtual currency scheme was to be focused on one specific
country, it could indeed have an impact on the money supply of this country. This is what happened
in China with the Chinese virtual currency scheme Q-coin, introduced by the company Tencent,
one of the leading telecom operators in the country. QQ is an instant messaging service provided by
this company that also allows virtual payments to be made with Q-coins. This currency can be
purchased by credit card or by using the remaining balance on a prepaid telephone card. The
exchange rate is fixed against the renminbi. Originally, this currency was implemented only for the
purchase of goods and services provided by Tencent. However, users started using it for person to
person (P2P) payments and some merchants also started accepting Q-coins as a means of payment.
In addition, several online games rewarded users with points that could be exchanged against
Q-coins and ultimately also against yuan in the black market. The virtual currency had evolved into
an illegal money scheme. Chinese authorities saw the amount of Q-coins traded reach several billion
yuan in one year, after rising around 20% annually. In June 2009, the Chinese authorities decided to
ban this currency for trading in real goods in order to “limit its possible impact on the real financial
system”.5 They also provided a definition of a virtual currency and stressed that they would only
allowed it to be used for purchasing the virtual goods and services provided by its issuer and not for
real goods and services.
sorry to quote so much from that paper, but here they actually make my point: The economics literature has not yet addressed the effect of virtual currencies on real money and monetary policy. One exception to this is a paper written by Peng and Sun (2009). These authors argue that virtual currency schemes act as a medium of exchange in the real goods trade and, therefore, that real GDP is affected and should be taken into account when assessing the effects of virtual currency schemes on the real money supply. According to the authors, the impact of virtual currencies on the real money supply depends on two aspects: - a) the substitution effect of the virtual economy on the real economy. Based on a survey, they infer
that in China the total income of the real economy tends to decrease because of virtual economic
activities (e.g. people spending a lot of time in virtual games spend less time working in the real
world), thereby also affecting the volume of the monetary base. - b) the crowding-out effect of virtual currencies on real cash. As the volume of virtual currencies
increases, people hold less cash in real life. This causes a decrease in the cash/deposit ratio and,
consequently, an increase in the money multiplier.
The authors argue that as the real money supply is affected by virtual currency schemes, central
banks should incorporate virtual currencies into monetary statistics in order to monitor their
volume.The challenge that virtual currency schemes might eventually pose for the conduct of monetary policy, in the event that these schemes manage to substantially diminish the use of central bank
sponsored currencies (replacing its roles in providing liquidity and a store of value), has also been highlighted in a recent BIS document.7 So I support the "whole pie theory" (I think blablabla brought it up?): All the money in the world fights for slices of the pie. So yes: if LTC becomes more valuable, it will take pieces of pie, likely mostly from the BTC piece. But since the "cryptocurrency piece of pie" will likely increase tremendously over time, I even think there would be room for another crypto-coin. However, I currently see none of them having enough advantage over bitcoin to gain substantial foothold. ;tldr: BTC sucks up value (pie) from the FIAT currencies until there is none left. The ECB says they should take that into account in their stats. LTC can try to suck on BTC. |
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I still have every coined I mined, the 5 free coins from the Bitcoin Faucet, and maybe a few coins gained in trading in 2011.
balls of steel award for you! Thanks for the info. |
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