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7721  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 02, 2013, 08:18:13 AM
With the 18k btc drop failing to do anything to the price we are clearly in a situation where very few Bitcoin holders are capable of "turning the tide" even if they wanted to. The masses and clearly some big players are on the move to buy, and it needs big, trend changing events, to truly turn the tide. We're still going up.

I agree it failed to initiate a panic and that's a very good sign. However you don't know what would've happened without the smackdown... it's possible we'd have gone to 35, 40 quickly. Maybe the intention was not to induce panic, but to avoid the bulls getting too hyped up. If so, it worked.
7722  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin is never going to hit $35 on: March 02, 2013, 07:43:36 AM
why is it going up so fast i don't understand

Demand and supply

More exactly: Relatively high demand and low supply.
7723  Economy / Speculation / Re: CoinLab News = Price collapse on: March 01, 2013, 06:22:48 PM
This is possible when you can create commodities out of thin air (like "paper silver").

I have thought of making a proof-of-concept "Casascius Bank" but where I accept no more than about 1000 BTC in total deposits.

The real goal, though, wouldn't be to become a bank.  It would be to illustrate a proof-of-concept: provably secure depositing.

I had a similar thought (create proof-of-concept bitcoin bank). I would also have auditable deposits. However I would give out ripple BTC IOUs and have a transparent reserve ratio. 100% in the beginning, but less later.
7724  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sorry to inform you, the current rally is over now... or very soon. on: March 01, 2013, 03:41:22 PM
I love ween BTW.  Smiley

Limited market for digital currency if another coin gains market share it will be a btc expense. Personally I think LTC will grow and help regulate BTC's price. If LTC goes to 1 dollar and you can use them for anything you use BTC for then if there are 4 times as many LTC then BTC the price of BTC should be 4 bucks. Why buy BTC at 35 when you can get LTC for .07? Makes no sense. Only reason anyone buys BTC over LTC from me is they wanna buy some blow off SR.

LTC won't break any relevant price point as the "miners" who are interested in it will dump everything, move to a new currency, and be like "Oh this is what we use now. It's better. Please buy it".

My money's on mccorvi-coins!

Smart man!

Anyone who wants a mccorvi-coin can send me BTC. I'll then bust out my colored pencils, sketch one up, and post it to you.

what's the rate? Can I get a real paper one?

7725  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 03:40:27 PM
THREAD CRASH! I'm dumping all my posts now.

haha, nice try, dude. Pathetic bears Wink
7726  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 01, 2013, 03:39:56 PM
anyone care to offer an opinion on Apple? My brother is thinking about getting in.
7727  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 03:35:40 PM
we should scrape all thread pages and jot down the posting times. That way we can calculate the derivative of the post count (posts/day). That'll be a measure that can also go down and we can test our awesome TA and fundamental analysis skills on that Wink
7728  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 01, 2013, 12:46:55 PM
Gold down.   Bitcoin UP.

News at 11.
7729  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 12:45:56 PM
don't worry, this thread is just a bubble, it's increasing in page size too fast, it's going to crash, err i mean big correction, a reversal i tell you!! This thread will be back down to single digits very soon !!

I beg to differ dude. I mean look at the fundamentals: there's more and more users flooding in. Newbs every day. Also: there's an unlimited amount of things that can be said, even about the same thing. In addition to that (should suffice already to get us to 2000 and beyond by the end of the year): this thread has no enforced posting rules. This means anyone can post anything he likes. Think about the possibilities! Only 0.0000001% of the world population (and that's an upper bound right there) have even heard about this thread at this point. If every earhtling just makes one post to this thread... well.. do the math!
7730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 12:38:10 PM

oh shit, if we continue at this rate, we will fill up the whole internet!
7731  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: March 01, 2013, 12:35:28 PM
BTW, 600 Cheesy

hm? 600 what?
7732  Economy / Speculation / Re: Best ideas for massive bear FUD campaign? on: March 01, 2013, 08:07:52 AM
Buy MtGox and move it to the USSA/USA (but will the price fully recover fast enough?)


Of course, just sell it again to some 14 year old kid somewhere in Asia.
7733  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: March 01, 2013, 07:14:26 AM
I acquired my very modest silver stash over the last 1.5 years at a price of 27-33. I decided to not buy more unless silver breaks below the magic 26 and down to around, maybe below 20. I have high hopes for silver, but the missed potential in bitcoin is too high. Silver is soooo sloooow Wink.
7734  Economy / Speculation / Best ideas for massive bear FUD campaign? on: March 01, 2013, 07:06:28 AM
to say this right away: I'm not planning anything of this kind and I would never do such a thing myself. This is merely a creative exercise and maybe an opportunity for some to share some wild dreams.

So the creative exercise goes like this: Suppose you are a group of well-established bitcoiners who have great reputation in the community. Specifically the group consists of:

  • several members who are "celebrity personalities" who have up to this point been real fundamental perma-bulls on bitcoin
  • several early adopters with pockets full of coins
  • several individuals who run well-established successful bitoin businesses
  • several individuals that have influence in the non-bitcoin media sphere

Your goal is to drive the price down to the teens or even single digits in order to shake out some weak hands and get more coins. (you are in reality thinking that bitcoin will change the world, but you want a bigger chunk of the action so you can pass on incredible wealth to your clan for generations to come)

You get to choose the specific members of the group in this thought experiment.

What would you do?

Describe your group, how you would go about the rolling out the campaign and the consequences. Also describe how you would avoid doing too much damage (you want bitcoin to regain strength after your acquisition of loads of coins)

7735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Yet another analyst :) on: March 01, 2013, 06:51:06 AM
... and what were the bullish emotions like when Bitcoin first broke the 1 USD barrier in February 2011? If someone had sold right at the top of that bull market they would be at a loss if they bought right at the bottom of the 2012 bear market.

*turns into FUD-spreading bear* theoretically, the market could still "correct" from that insane hyped-up bull move above $1 and ever more insanely beyond and bitcoin can drop back to it's "fair" value of $0.01. *morphs back into bull*

The funny thing is: should something like that happen, most people calling for "cheaper coins so they can buy more", wouldn't even spend the 21 bucks necessary to get into Vladimirs Club.


7736  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sorry to inform you, the current rally is over now... or very soon. on: February 28, 2013, 10:24:43 PM
The (short-term) correction was ~$3.50, no matter what you believe...

Maybe this will help you out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_correction

At no point was 31.05 established as an equilibrium.

That definition doesn't apply at all:

Quote
A market correction is a rapid change in the nominal price of a commodity, after a barrier to free trade has been removed and the free market establishes a new equilibrium price.

Bitcoin might be argued to be a commodity, but where was there ever a trade barrier?

Yes, that was my point. It doesn't apply. Because we didn't have a "correction to 31.05" and really, not a true correction at all.

However, if you mean this term is not applicable to a change in btc price, I disagree. There are plenty of trade barriers that still exist. Like Chase shutting down cash deposit accounts every time they find out they're dealing with a Bitcoin exchange. When we hear news that Coinlab is going to make transferring money to the largest exchange much easier, the price rises rapidly - that is a correction.

Regardless of how people are abusing this term, I would love to see the definition of a market correction that would qualify an instantaneous dip like we saw. It would make the term meaningless.

Hm. I wasn't aware "market correction" was so tightly defined. I figured it'd be any kind of sharp rebound after a move.

found this

Quote from: Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, Robert D. Edwards and John Magee p. 479
A correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 20% or so.

here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_trend
7737  Other / Off-topic / Re: Brain Teaser on: February 28, 2013, 10:17:33 PM
ASICMINER with a spelling error?

That would be sic [sic] if that's the answer.

I'm looking at something different.

a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z

You aren't going to solve it that way, what you should be looking at is:

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z


AKMNRVWXYZ

everything that has something diagonal in it... it had to be something with the shapes because capitalization changed things.

I'm not sure about Z, could be only \ are trigger shapes, but not /. Z is the only one that doesn't have a \
7738  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: New Ripple Currency: The Favor on: February 28, 2013, 10:13:47 PM
Is this experiment in progress? Anyone succeeded creating new (user-defined) currency in Ripple so far?

I would really like to try this at some point. I think it's too early for this, though. Let's wait until the rippled is released and people can run servers and scale it up a bit testing with the existing currencies first.
7739  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sorry to inform you, the current rally is over now... or very soon. on: February 28, 2013, 10:09:51 PM
The (short-term) correction was ~$3.50, no matter what you believe...

Maybe this will help you out: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_correction

At no point was 31.05 established as an equilibrium.

That definition doesn't apply at all:

Quote
A market correction is a rapid change in the nominal price of a commodity, after a barrier to free trade has been removed and the free market establishes a new equilibrium price.

Bitcoin might be argued to be a commodity, but where was there ever a trade barrier?
7740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker on: February 28, 2013, 09:57:11 PM
The pattern of price movement changed. The sellers are waiting for a decent amount of bids to build above a certain price point, and then dump down to this price point.

This suggests to me that the piles of stashed BTC are now coming out of hiding, and the price point they are comfortable with seems to be around 31 USD/BTC. The next week or so may indeed be interesting, and not in a way it was "interesting" for the last 6 weeks.

Well, a little bit of diversity may even be refreshing... Wink  

Proof of said statement? this to me is FUD,

If this puts fear in you you should think about the "why". It doesn't put fear in me at all. Old coins being distributed into new hands is incredibly good for bitcoin. A currency with 70% of it held (or not) by very few people is problematic from a marketing perspective.

the 20 day average of bitcoin days destroyed hasn't broken the '11 high yet, but it hasn't been this high since then.


(http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=20&show_header=true&scale=0&address=)
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