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7721  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Altcoin Mining: you WON’T pay for that card (with assumptions) on: January 20, 2022, 04:19:45 AM
20 cent power is high.

you need to understand 5,6,7 cent power is solid for mining ⛏

10,15,20 = risk ,more risk, high risk


Hi Phil,
Try the UK, residential power is now over 20p (£0.20) pkwr, plenty of miners making money over here though...just don't mine what the sheep mine

We are not bear yet. When bear  is truly awake 20p a kwatt
 is always losing.

When this whole market awakened the bull in summer 2020 eth earned 2 cents a mh

when the peak hit in early spring of 2022 eth earned 20 cents a mh

we are down to 4-5 cents a mh.

if we drop to 2 cents per mh  a 3080 will earn 2 bucks and burn 5 kwatts
or 1 pound or 1.70 usd

that would mean 2-1.70 = 30 cent profit.

and if we drop to 1 cent a mh the bear  will be roaring.
hard to tell if we go to that.

earn 1 dollar burn 5 kwatts means breakeven is 20 usd cents.

but a six cent power guy earns 70 cents. that means the 3080 will sell low on ebay.



I’m not sure I agree with your entire premise. You seem to be saying that you won’t make money from GPU mining, but then only give examples proving that to be wrong and with an extremely short time frame. Then you pivot to saying that investing in crypto would give you a better return. Those are two pretty different statements. You also don’t figure in sale of the GPUs the way you are figuring in sale of the purchased currency.

I think what you mean to say is that if you purchase crypto when the price is low and sell when it’s high you’ll end up with more money then if you buy a GPU and mine during that period. I know which one looks more like gambling to me, but we are all free to have our opinions.

Og, Philip

Let me try to explain my position this way.
Assumptions that are arguable:
1)   Resale price of the card (in a declining ETH, cards are less; rising ETH, cards sell for full value)
2)   Difficulty continues to rise as it has for the last 3 months (this is the key)


With
1)   The current price of cards so high
2)   Difficulty going up 28% over 3 months (which means I make 28% less now than I did 3 months ago)
         https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/ethereum/difficulty-chart 
3)   Income taxes eat 20%+ (forgot that in the first post, and I don't include it here, only makes it worse!)
4)   High electric prices (my electric eats 20% of gross income daily, higher as time goes on)

My argument is that it is not worth it to purchase a new card and mine right now.

There are 2 scenario’s
1)   Price of ETH is stable or declining
2)   Price of ETH is rising

Scenario 1 (ETH stable or declining)

-   With difficulty reducing income by 28% over each 3 months, I will never get enough gross income to pay back the initial price of the card, at some point the income minus electric will be negative, and then it is not profitable to mine the card.
-   With the card no longer generating cash, its resale value is not going to be much. 
-   Lets say the resale value of the cards is equal to the amount not recovered from mining, you essentially break even.



Scenario 2 (ETH rising)

-   I assemble the stated rig above for $7500
-   ETH is rising, lets say 50% per year
-   Difficulty rising 28% every 3 months (if I did the calculation right, in 1 year I will make 37% of what I make now, 3 years I will pull in 6% of the first month)
Basically the questions are
a)   Do I invest $7500 in a mining rig
b)   Do I invest $7500 directly in ETH

a) Invest $7500 in a mining rig
-  A $7500 mining rig will have brought in (really) roughly $4100 by month 26  (Difficulty rising 28% every 3 months, reducing income, and ETH rising 50% per year (assumption).  At 26 months, ETH diff has risen to the point that mining is a negative return, and you stop mining).

-   So lets say you are able to sell the rig for full price of $7500.  You have $4100 in ETH, and $7500 in a mining rig, you now have $11,500.  Invest that for 1 year at 50%, and you have $17,000+ in 3 years

c)   Invest $7500 in ETH directly
-   A $7500 investment in ETH at 50% per year would return (roughly) $25,000 in 3 years (50% increase in price/year)


My Conclusions

I do not see a clear reason to invest in a new mining card right now.

If you can change some of the parameters like Philip has done
-   Lower priced card
-   Lower cost electric
You will mine with positive dollars longer.

My point is that difficulty is rising so fast that I currently don’t think it is profitable to buy new cards



Yes if difficulty rise is higher than price rise mining ⛏ sucks as simple as that.

[moderator's note: consecutive posts merged]
7722  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: January 19, 2022, 07:23:39 PM
Seems like it aggressive hashrate growth has stopped because diff estimation is now consolidated around 8.6% for at least 24h now.

We're approaching the end of the period, that's why there is no more such exponential growth, there is only a day and a half left, for it to change the current 8% to 10% you would need the last of it to be even higher to compensate for the lower average over the previous 12 days.
That aside, the current pace (24hours) is actually quite high, 174 blocks, around 22% higher than the average, it might push the adjustment to over 9 if this continuous and it's not just randomness.

From the 13th we had 5 days with block time under and ~9 mins, there is definitely more gear coming online.
We're penalty going to beat the May ATH and let's see, another 6% is enough for over 200Exa on average, another milestone and record, not one that I'm too thrilled about.


 



In the long run the 200Exa is a big deal and hopefully good as it means investment in mining.
7723  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: i have 400$, i buy a mining cheap or a graphique card? on: January 19, 2022, 07:00:44 PM
14 x .22 = 3.08 in earnings

35 kwatts a day x 12 cents = 4.14 in power spent

net loss of 1.06 a day

 based on 12 cent power.


Now if you have a space to heat and spend $$$ on electrical power to heat it  you can write off some cost since you are spending it on the heater.
7724  Bitcoin / Mining / Re: Mining cryptos with flare gas - modular refinery for remote miners on: January 19, 2022, 06:45:08 PM
Hello Miners,

I am a graduate student at Montana State University working on a project for a company that has developed a product that refines natural gasses at wellsites for use with remote data processing centers (crypto miners, cloud processing units, etc). This product breaks down the hydrocarbon-dense natural gasses coming from the wellsite and gives the generators a fuel that is much friendlier on their internals and a cleaner emission as well. This would increase the uptime on your machines and put you in compliance with local emission regulations.

Is this product something that would interest remote miners? They would come in both a 1MW and 2MW model, but the company is open to making smaller/larger models. I would love to hear opinions and questions so we can field the best possible path forward to the company.

Thanks!

I have a person for you to contact.  He builds huts with gas gens to mine.

I will pm a link to you.
7725  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: January 19, 2022, 06:38:54 PM
Quote
Latest Block:   719484  (5 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   108.6480%  (1789 / 1646.60 expected, 142.4 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   24272331996979.97                           
Current Difficulty:   24371874614345.62                           
Next Difficulty:   between 26457891734489 and 26487003856870
Next Difficulty Change:   between +8.5591% and +8.6786%
Previous Retarget:   January 8, 2022 at 8:40 AM  (+0.4101%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Friday at 5:56 AM  (in 1d 10h 49m 18s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 6:16 AM  (in 1d 11h 9m 39s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 12d 21h 15m 20s and 12d 21h 35m 40s

Seems like it aggressive hashrate growth has stopped because diff estimation is now consolidated around 8.6% for at least 24h now.

And 26.4 will be the all time high number.
7726  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: Ultra-Low-Voltage Energy-Efficient Bitcoin Mining ASIC from Intel (23 Feb 2022) on: January 19, 2022, 03:18:20 PM
Well it would be nice to give a home owner a quality miner with good efficiency .

Under 800 watts full power
and compete with 30 watts a th.

Just think:

 25th unit that uses 750 watts = Good
 25th unit that uses 625 watts = Better
 25th unit that uses 500 watts = Best

I think it could sell well. It can't be a lot more efficient that the beast miners.

I picked that th and those watts for specific reasons.

If they really were smart they could sell a mobo using up to 2 mining chips

and let the mobo be able to be upgrade to better mining chips. I e much like an intel server mobo



7727  Bitcoin / Hardware wallets / Re: Anyone ever try a SecuX hardware wallet. on: January 19, 2022, 03:07:00 PM
My review will be on the newegg website .

They sometimes send me gear for free to review

I did a review recently on the seasonic case and custom psu



https://www.newegg.com/p/N82E16811315004?Description=seasonic%20case&cm_re=seasonic_case-_-11-315-004-_-Product


Look for review by Philip A.


while I gave the item 5 stars I clearly pointed out 2 flaws in the case

I did the interview in oct and updated today I still mention the 2 issues the case has.

This case and psu cost was 200-300 depends on sale.

newegg sends me gear 2 or 3 times a year.

I point out issues in the gear some of the time. I don't need to lie. Newegg still sends gear to me every year.

They will also send me an Rmx 650 corsair psu to review this month

Which is funny as I own the rm750x the rm850x the rm1000x but never had a rm650x

My gut feeling on this wallet is if I can carry it around and key it into my phone maybe it is okay

also maybe I can keep it in house with a burner phone and use them with no other stuff.

Do I think it is safe for 1 btc of coin no but what do I know nothing till I get it.

7728  Bitcoin / Hardware / Re: S19xx vs Avalon 1246 vs Whatsminer M30S/M31S on: January 19, 2022, 02:45:23 PM
Hi guys, ive been watching the forum for a while but just registered today, i own some scrypt miners and i am looking to buy my first BTC miner now.

I am looking at the Bitmain S19 series, avalon 1246's and Whatsminer M30S/M31S.

I have a hard time justifying paying that extra money for a S19 series and was pretty set on buying an avalon 1246 but then, i heard that reliability may not be that good on the Avalons and seems like they are more sensible to heat....

That makes me wondering if the Whatsminers would be a good alternative?

Electricity rates where i live are at around 0.076 usd/kw

So what would you buy and why?

Any feedback from actual owners of those machines would be appreciated.

Thanks in advance!

I gave you a merit as you placed a well thought out question in a proper format in the right section.

There are 4 sellers of etc basics that are decent

Avalon
Bitmain
Innosilicon
Whatsminer/Microbt


I own some of every one above.
I have to see bitmain tends to be able to run in the hotter rooms best
Innosilicon second best
avalon third best
whatsminer fourth place.


My sample size is 200 pieces of gear

Bitmain
s7
s9
s15
s17
s19
T15
T17
L3+ yeah it is scrypt

innosilicon
t1
t2
t3

avalon
741
841
851
941
1046

whatsminer
m3
m10
m20
m21


bitmain has been able to run in the hottest rooms. We have heat issues when summer temps go above 95F or 38c our main mining room gets really fucking hot

Bitmain gear has had the best ability to run in really hot rooms.

Now if you can keep the room temp controlled
and keep good quality power avalon is very good.

but if your mining space it rugged bitmain should be better

note we only have 1 s19 so The sample is smaller


1066
7729  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: 100% fan speed RTX 3080 ? on: January 18, 2022, 10:31:05 PM
Nice follow up.  Good work with the pads.
7730  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 18, 2022, 10:26:03 PM
Been thinking a bit, now that European countries are starting to to give up and say "fuck it, Covid is just another flu infection from now on", how are countries like China and New Zealand going to cope with that?
Are they going to stay in self isolation for ever?
They have to accept reality at some point and let the virus in.

And they now have the advantage of:

A] anti - viral drugs work against it.
B] time to have built a stock pile of anti viral drugs
C] they had time to max everyone

So let it rip.

Lets see how they do in about 1 years time.
7731  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: i have 400$, i buy a mining cheap or a graphique card? on: January 18, 2022, 08:49:23 PM
yes, that's all my question, and also who can return my money in less than year, and what coin is best of mining if you say the graphique/cheap name, Thanks+remember im a newbie  Wink

well you may find an s9 for 400

but you need dirt cheap power to make money with it.
7732  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Marketplace (Altcoins) / Re: New algorithm "proof of action" on: January 18, 2022, 06:15:24 PM
Proof of action have a random request sent to your os and it would be :

1) shut the gear off for 5 minutes
2) add 2 numbers
3) other actions.

7733  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: RTX 3050 what plans? on: January 18, 2022, 02:31:59 PM
Good afternoon!
I heard a new "super-budget" RTX 3050 video card is coming out this month, like the price should range from $ 250-300 (this is not accurate). Do you think there will finally be an opportunity to buy a card at the recommended price? Or as usual, the price will be inflated several times?it is interesting how it will show itself in mining...

Okay this section is just for sha-256 machines used directly to mine BTC

a bitmain s19
an Avalon 1166


no gpus.

I asked mods to move it.

As to the question do I think this gear will be easy to get.

My answer is no.

Evga a major seller and build of gear will drop it on my birthday Jan 27

You have to go on a queue to get it.

I can tell you that ebay prices have dropped on the nvidia 3090 cards
I can tell you you can buy 20 msi 3090's from newegg only some what jacked up in price. (now out of stock)

So I think cards will be a little easier to get if you want expensive power hungery ones.
7734  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Altcoin Mining: you WON’T pay for that card (with assumptions) on: January 18, 2022, 02:02:47 AM
Return of investment from mining rigs depends on how much you build your rigs, why A4000 those cards are high costly go for something cheaper, as for electricity bill it depends on your country charges, mine is 6cent power but still I use power of the sun (solar panels) for mining, with the right calculation you will get your ROI faster

he is at 20:cent power so efficient cards are important.

I can get the same a4000 for 1250 after tax and shipping

and multiple rebates would be 100+37+18

that means 155

so 1250-155= 1095 cost

13 cent power

with a pay date interest free to 10/10/22

also my 13 cent power is cheaper as the heat they give off will lower my heating bill.

So I have ten on order due by fri the 21 or mon the 24

these cards make good sense for me.

I have an ace in the hole and can move the rig to the farm in may when summer power rates come in.

so feb mar apr 90 days and 10 in jan are 100 days

card burns 115x24= about 3 kwatts or 39 cents the heat is about 9 cents.

so they cost me 30 cents to run they earn 60 x 4.5 = 2.70-.30 = 2.40 x 100 that is 240  so by may 1 my cost is down to 1095-240= 855 usd.

I move to the farm then.

7735  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 17, 2022, 04:07:03 PM
Apparently Crypto.com is dealing with a pretty significant hack through their backend into accounts on the exchange and in the app. 2FA & Fingerprint security completely bypassed. Significant number of unauthorized withdrawals went through one after another. Everything is locked down now as they are trying to figure out what happened and restore accounts.

As always inside job.
Almost every big hack is an inside job.

Speaking of big hacks.

My tracfone number is partially returned not full but somewhat.

straight talk and tracfone had thousands of numbers ported away.

the partial restore allows me to make and receive texts and calls.

email access to tracfone still dead ☠️

and my minutes are zero my data is zero but date is zero

but the phone works so it is kind of a ghost 👻 phone at the moment.

good luck to any with crypto.com coin
7736  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Want to buy few used GPU on: January 17, 2022, 03:32:10 PM
As mentioned before. Vegas needs playing with timings that takes alot of trial and error and ALOT of time (specially the gigabyte gaming oc, wich is terrible to work with). And i guess 1080TI are pretty straight forward.

1080TI use to much power for this small hashrate and the hashrate decrease every new DAG Epoch. Use 2060 Super instead, they only use 115w and can do around 45mh. Used cards are available for less money than 1080Ti´s

The Nvidia cards all day, they work better with no driver issues and they have low temp compare to AMD, if I have to buy AMD card today it will be the newer versions not the old architecture, I'm talking about the likes of rx6600 and others but since this is between 1080ti and Vega I will surely go for 1080ti

The GPU temp depends on every GPU and Subvendor. My AMD cards are always under 60°C.

Going to choose from few old GPUs from a friend of a friend that needed money and want to sell them, what will be the better decision between 1080ti and Vega 64? Which one is more durable for mining and give less stress or troubles?

Vega Cards, use less power, hashrate will not decrease very DAG epoch and they have more hashrate than a 1080ti.

Going to choose from few old GPUs from a friend of a friend that needed money and want to sell them, what will be the better decision between 1080ti and Vega 64? Which one is more durable for mining and give less stress or troubles?

I would go with the 1080ti. Post ETH i think the 1080ti will be the more profitable card. Using todays numbers and in a world without ETH the Vega will make $1.25 a day but the 1080ti will make $1.45. Then you add in these are used cards and buying used Vegas is risky, you never know what kinda shape that HBM2 memory is going to be in. The 1080ti however are rock solid and durable cards you can mistreat them and they will keep on ticking.

Much longer timespan? I hate this theoretical stupid shit. Why has nvidia cards longer timespan? I lose 1 nvidia and 1 amd card in 5 years of mining full time with 200 cards. This bashing against GPU manufacturer is senseless. Every one has good an bad cards. Or did you do a research for years with 1000 of cards?

198 and 2 is a good record.

with my 2020 gear from april 1 to now I am about 230 and 2

all three were amd 2 in a two card rig I suspect it was a mobo short.

and a few fans died msi amd fans.

I go back to 2012 mining with gpus.

amds were always harder to get to work 24/7/365

but my amd 5600 = excellent
and my amd 5700 = excellent

So I kind of think it varies make to make and model to model.

My all time favorite gpu = 1080ti evga hybrid

36 and 0 all about 4 years old.
7737  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2022 Diff thread. on: January 17, 2022, 03:05:06 PM
or the demand for over priced gear ⚙️ has stopped.

my estimate for proper pricing is the 130 k deals should be more like 90k

they bear watching. to see if they sell out or get cheaper.

It is interesting that we saw prices fall from close to 70K all the way to 40K, and no real change in gear price. Still around $100/TH. Almost like there is some price-fixing going on...

I wonder what big players who are negotiating for >1000 units are paying, doubt it is $100/TH. There also seems to be some gear coming from Malaysia, so no tariff. Maybe a big player who wants $10M worth of gear is paying $70/TH right now...

Or maybe the gear manufacturers are betting on a BTC bull market and >70k prices and are happy to build up inventory so they can dump it all at once for $120/TH when BTC cracks 100k...

I am a bit older than most people on the forum. I remember opec fixing oil prices in the 70’s

They were able to do a very good job of it for close to five years.

The world is different now and I don’t think they can lock prices for five years but they certainly are efforting to keep gear price stable.

you know what would be aa solid fu to eth and also asic builders.

if eth goes pos
and btc switches to kapow algorithm.

but it is not going to happen.

truly would fuck over a lot of people if it did.

I suppose some would say its not btc but realistically if enough vote for an algorithm switch if would be just that.

7738  Bitcoin / Pools / Re: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 262 blocks solved! on: January 17, 2022, 12:44:27 PM
I'm not a miner yet. But can I do it with my laptop? Or is that a bad idea? Because I don't know what the earnings are in a month qua BTC? Maybe stupid questions!🤣
Very very bad idea  Wink. cpu's are nowhere powerfull enough these days. In the early days of bitcoin it was mined by cpus but then mining with graphics cards came along and after that asics. To give you an example according to http://solochance.com/

cpu = very very low megahash range. For instance 1 Mhash gives you a chance of 1 in 3,641,973,524 years which is in the range of the remaining lifetime of our sun
gpu = high megahash range. For instance 300 Mhash gives you a chance of 1 in 12,139,912 years
asic = Terahash range (tera is 1 million times faster then mega). For instance current antminer s19j pro 104 Th device gives you a chance of 1 in 35 years

Your better off buying a lottery ticket then mining bitcoin with a cpu or gpu.

edit: -ck explains it even better in a stickied post in the mining forum:
Quote
Mining BITCOIN is done exclusively with dedicated BITCOIN mining hardware based on ASICs - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Application-specific_integrated_circuit . You CAN NOT meaningfully mine bitcoin today with CPU, GPU or even FPGAs. Bitcoin difficulty adapts to match the amount of mining done on the network and has reached levels trillions of times too high to mine meaningfully with PCs, laptops, tablets, phones, webpages, javascript, GPUs, and even generalised SHA hardware. You will not find software in this section to help you mine bitcoin in this absurdly inefficient manner in this subforum. It would cost you thousands of dollars in electricity per year to earn only a few cents in bitcoin. Even if you combined all the computers in the world, including all known supercomputer, you would not even approach 0.1% of the bitcoin hashrate today. Any discussion outside of ASIC related mining, except in the interests of academia, will be moved to the altcoin mining section. There isn't any point attempting to mine bitcoin with CPU or GPU even in the interests of learning as it shares almost nothing with how bitcoin is mined with ASICs and will not teach you anything.[/]

104th s19 earns about 0.00000515 x 104 = 0.0005356 btc in a day. 6.25/0.0005356 = 11,669 to 1 shot or about  31.8 years  it is a rough estimate and is a bit different than your 35 year estimate.

but in a few days the difficulty will change by over 6% that would make it over 33.8 years
7739  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 17, 2022, 04:19:30 AM
2 words,
 Go Steelers!!

xhomerx10

They did go.

home 🏠

btw I was rooting for them not against them.
7740  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 16, 2022, 11:34:15 PM
What goes up must come down though & the embarrassingly low cycle top further shows the diminishing returns bitcoin gives now. What will the next bull top be, maybe $80,000 in 2025? Most of you bitches will have panic sold when the price hits $10,000 within around 12 months.

I told you all the top was $69,000 ages ago. Long crypto winter now, massive drops to come. How many of you will sell, more than will admit it. Massive dumps are imminent over the next months.

blah blah blah blah


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