Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/habits-of-highly-effective-hodlers

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[Torque]

One interesting thing about tech adoption curves.  The further we go into new tech, the more aggressive the middle section is.



One of the things that can slow down an adoption curve is need/expense.  Look at air conditioning.  It is not an absolute NEED, and it is expensive to deploy AND maintain.  Same as dishwasher.  But look at electricity.  It is arguably very important, and you do not have to use much of it.

Bitcoin is facilitated by other curves.  Cell phones, internet, computers.  And it is more pure.  And it does not really have a price.  it *IS* the price.  you can store the value of a new set of tires in it just as easily as you can a fleet of commercial aircraft.

I predict the bitcoin adoption curve will be one of the most aggressive yet.  And I think that will also be reflected naturally in the price.

The issue with Bitcoin, is that much like gold, whether or not it is a need (a must have) is entirely depending on a person's mindset.

For example, high inflation affects us all, but only a very small segment of the world population is motivated enough to actually do anything about preserving their wealth. Or even CAN do anything about it. Even in countries where they currently have hyperinflation, you would think that by now everyone there would own a little bitcoin, but they still don't.

[El duderino_]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I can't say I know that much about Tether, as I haven't had any interest in it to look into it too deeply.

Having a stablecoin pin its value on a fiat is already a laughably bad idea. But to back a so-called "stablecoin" without being able to prove that it's actually pegged to the fiat dollar, much less able to prove its pegged to anything at all really, nor to be able to verify who holds it or how much, if the collateral backing it (fiat) is there and accessible 1:1, seems actually far worse than backing digital fiat to me.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

https://youtu.be/-whuXHSL1Pg?t=136

I watched that entire video, and it told me exactly nothing about Tether beyond what I either knew or could have guessed about it. Which says more about the uselessness and fraud of Tether than my limited knowledge. They are likely running a fractional reserve scheme (scam?), just like every major bank in the world. The only difference is that no one knows if their collateral has any or enough value to cover their debt load in the case of a major wipe out. I'm guessing not.

And beyond just making day trading easier, what purpose does it serve?

The video did answer this question: none. Which again, was as I surmised all along.

I did watch the whole 36 minute video too.. just like you Torque, and surely there are some interesting points raised by Coffeezilla (the presenter).  I question your terse rendition of the video Torque, even though I admit that there are likely quite a few rehashed arguments that are being presented.   

I cannot even say that there are NOT possible reasons to be concerned about Tether and Bitfinex, but surely my levels of concern are not as high as your concerns seem to be, Torque.  I already appreciate that you love conspiracies and you love to hate on people who are engaging in shady behaviors and even read those kinds of scenarios for the worst.... On a personal level, I have my doubts about whether any new and revelatory facts/logic are being presented that need to be of major concern...

Maybe there is a bit of turn-off when some angles are presented with such seeming drama, which seems to refuse to give much benefit of the doubt to both Tether and Bitfinex in the whole matter?  Surely a painting of each of the involved players as supposed historical scammers with bad characters seems like throwing in some easy-peasy disingenuine arguments...

So the punchlines from the presentation seem to be that Tether is supposedly insufficiently backed, filled with a bunch of disingenuine actors who are largely engaged in Ponzi scheme behaviors and could implode at any moment - taking the rest of bitcoin/crypto with it (or at least dealing a considerable blow to bitcoin/crypto). Another point seems to be that many of us in the bitcoin/crypto space are not taking this seriously enough, yet I am confused regarding what actions we are supposed to be taking?  Demand the auditing of Tether?  lobby for their prosecution?  Surely, there are a lot of governmental actors who would just love to take down tether, but the NY settlements seem to show that even the US Govt does not feel that they have enough ammunition to really take down Tether, and instead seems like settlements just allows for some abilities to have continuing ways to interfere with Tether with ongoing fines and ways to attempt to "keep Tether in check."

I guess I don't really have any problem with the information presented in the video, even though I do believe that Coffeezilla is being a bit curt and cutsie with the real issues in which Tether has provided a lot of liquidity over the years that has allowed a variety of ways for bitcoin (and crypto) to be held, transferred, and onboarded/offboarded, and so governmental hostility to this does seem to be an important part that is just glossed over.. and surely, reflecting on this whole existence of Tether matter, it is quite amazing that Tether has existed for more than 8 years and really become more and more powerful, and even relied upon in various kinds of liquidity ways.. and yeah for sure they are not completely clear about the level of their backing.. and how much they are likely to be engaging in fractional.  I did appreciate that Coffeezilla did at least recognize that in 2018 (or whenever it was) Bitfinex did seem to get duped out of $800 million dollars - and surely, he glossed over that aspect, including that various governments (including the US Govt) may well have been involved (or complicit) in such fucking around with allowing $800 million to get taken from Tether (Bitfinex too, right?).  

I also have some troubles agreeing with Coffeezilla's representations that this may well be the biggest scam, money printing (or unbacked claims) fiasco that has been known to mankind - when it seems that just looking at various recent government and banking behaviors of the past couple of years, there are likely similar (or even worse) kinds of scams going on through governments and banking institutions, so I have some troubles with assertions that Tether/Bitfinex is a worse level of scandal.. and even accepting that there might be some scandalous aspects that relate towards insufficient Tether backings.  Actually, in recent times, I had seen some other reports (I cannot remember from exactly where) arguing/establishing that just from Bitcoin's growth over the past year or two, it is quite likely that Tether/Bitfinex is way better backed than it ever was and likely made up for a lot of their having had been robbed of $800 million in 2018.

[Richy_T]

For example, high inflation affects us all, but only a very small segment of the world population is motivated enough to actually do anything about preserving their wealth. Or even CAN do anything about it. Even in countries where they currently have hyperinflation, you would think that by now everyone there would own a little bitcoin, but they still don't.

One of the benefits of making people live paycheck to paycheck, I guess.

[Arriemoller]

Hi guys
I'm feeling better now.
I don't know if it was my arthritis acting up or if I had Omicron, I had muscle and joint aches, headache, slept a lot and had nightly sweatings/hot/cold kind of thing, and that's symptoms that fit both. I also had my knee swelling up again so I had to go to the hospital and empty it and get a cortisone shot, that helped and I also got better over all after that. but in time that would coincide with when a covid infection would be over-ish.
I got bad on January first and didn't feel alright until three days ago.
Had no loss of smell though and no cough to speak of, just a little, so I don't know what I had, but I feel good now.
I will probably not bother to read the backlog, is there anything important I have missed?

[Hueristic]

So the punchlines from the presentation seem to be that Tether is supposedly insufficiently backed, filled with a bunch of disingenuine actors who are largely engaged in Ponzi scheme behaviors and could implode at any moment - taking the rest of bitcoin/crypto with it (or at least dealing a considerable blow to bitcoin/crypto). Another point seems to be that many of us in the bitcoin/crypto space are not taking this seriously enough, yet I am confused regarding what actions we are supposed to be taking?  Demand the auditing of Tether?  lobby for their prosecution?  Surely, there are a lot of governmental actors who would just love to take down tether, but the NY settlements seem to show that even the US Govt does not feel that they have enough ammunition to really take down Tether, and instead seems like settlements just allows for some abilities to have continuing ways to interfere with Tether with ongoing fines and ways to attempt to "keep Tether in check."

What we can do about it is just not park our capitol in it.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the fed has its tendrils in bitfinex and tether to the root right now.

and that is why even though the NY AG specifically stated there are provable times tether is fractional reserve he would just fine them and ban New Yorkers from using them therefore doing his due diligence.

Remember it was a state attorney general that levied the fines and findings not the FED.

[OutOfMemory]

Hi guys
I'm feeling better now.
I don't know if it was my arthritis acting up or if I had Omicron I had muscle and joint aches, headache, slept a lot and had nightly sweatings/hot/cold kind of thing. and that's symptoms that fit both. I also had my knee swelling up again so I had to go to the hospital and empty it and get a cortisone shot, that helped and I also got better over all after that. but in time that would coincide with when a covid infection would be over-ish.
I got bad on January first and didn't feel alright until three days ago.
Had no loss of smell though and no cough to speak of, just a little, so I don't know what I had, but I feel good now.
I will probably not bother to read the backlog, is there anything important I have missed?

Nice to read good news from you again, Arrie!
They didn't check for Covid at the hospital? Strange...
Did you try organic sulphur (MSM) combined with Vitamin C and Glucosamine?
It's pretty effective against swelling and pain in light to moderate cases, i also experienced stronger hair growth after taking MSM for a few weeks.
At start, you could get serious bloating and headache, unless you slowly ramp up the MSM dosage from 1/8g to 1g (double the initial dose every third day) and drink a lot of water. I mean 2-4 liters per day, your body will crave for it, believe me
Read it up. It's safe unless you don't go over 2g/day or more. Some do 6g daily for a short while and didn't have any problems.

The backlog: We're in the dip of the dip of the dip. I am mainly reading WO since Christmas, came to posting less because of more private reasons, less free time after all.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

This is one reason why multi-front ASIC chip development is so important.  One attack vector would be able to produce a chip so powerful that you could use it for a 51% attack or the likes.

I am thinking the time of that possibility might be past us?

With the amount of hashrate you would need for a 51% attack you're probably better off just mining. And there isn't much "profit" with this kind of attack to begin with. Doublespend would be fraud (i.e. lawsuits) no matter how you look at it, and you'd need a massive amount of bitcoins to spend. What else? Some FUD (attack!!! run for the hills!!!) + shorting? But that can be done far cheaper, just spread rumors about China or something. Force a hardfork? No different than creating a new shitcoin.

sometimes the intent is to destroy, not control.

[Arriemoller]

Hi guys
I'm feeling better now.
I don't know if it was my arthritis acting up or if I had Omicron, I had muscle and joint aches, headache, slept a lot and had nightly sweatings/hot/cold kind of thing. and that's symptoms that fit both. I also had my knee swelling up again so I had to go to the hospital and empty it and get a cortisone shot, that helped and I also got better over all after that. but in time that would coincide with when a covid infection would be over-ish.
I got bad on January first and didn't feel alright until three days ago.
Had no loss of smell though and no cough to speak of, just a little, so I don't know what I had, but I feel good now.
I will probably not bother to read the backlog, is there anything important I have missed?

Nice to read good news from you again, Arrie!
They didn't check for Covid at the hospital? Strange...
Did you try organic sulphur (MSM) combined with Vitamin C and Glucosamine?
It's pretty effective against swelling and pain in light to moderate cases, i also experienced stronger hair growth after taking MSM for a few weeks.
At start, you could get serious bloating and headache, unless you slowly ramp up the MSM dosage from 1/8g to 1g (double the initial dose every third day) and drink a lot of water. I mean 2-4 liters per day, your body will crave for it, believe me
Read it up. It's safe unless you don't go over 2g/day or more. Some do 6g daily for a short while and didn't have any problems.

The backlog: We're in the dip of the dip of the dip. I am mainly reading WO since Christmas, came to posting less because of more private reasons, less free time after all.

No, no checks at the hospital any more, I think they don't take it that seriously any more, they do make you wear a mask inside the hospital though, the only place I have been to that has a mask mandate.
They did tell me when we made small talk that many of their doctors and nurses were in self quarantine at home because of Omicron, a lot of them had had the earlier version of covid and were triple vaccinated.
So it seems omicron is spreading like wildfire to everyone regardless of earlier immunization.

And it looks like the parliament is about to take away the governments temporary right to impose restrictions, they want to prolong it for another four months, but the parliament has let it be known that they will only approve a two month prolonging.
And then I guess it's over, at least in Sweden.

I have tried Glucosamine only, but I can't say it had any noticeable effect. I do have an open prescription for Prednisolon (a cortisone) and I use it to suppress my inflammation if it gets really bad, it works very well but I have to use it sparsely, it is not good for your body in the long run.

 

[El duderino_]

May the Ant survive this time

Why….

This time is different.

[El duderino_]

May the Ant survive this time

Why….

This time is different.

[cAPSLOCK]

May the Ant survive this time

Why….

This time is different.

Merited both!

[Arriemoller]

That's cheating 

[Arriemoller]

Been thinking a bit, now that European countries are starting to to give up and say "fuck it, Covid is just another flu infection from now on", how are countries like China and New Zealand going to cope with that?
Are they going to stay in self isolation for ever?
They have to accept reality at some point and let the virus in.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

BTC trading at 2x since the ath of 2017
Pretty pathetic price performance if you ask me, especially for the long term holders

Good one, YourMother.


Frequently it is pretty clear if members are being serious with their assertions.  This is a good one because it is difficult to know how much seriousness to take you in this level of nonsense.  Surely, there is some humor to it, so I will give you that.

BTC trading at 2x since the ath of 2017
Pretty pathetic price performance if you ask me, especially for the long term holders

Yes.  $40k bitcoin is such a huge disappointment. 

Yes.  Exactly.

Annoying price of BTC for long term hodlers….

I am not sure whether annoying is really accurate, even though there is likely some frustration in terms of potential expectations that an exponential price rise seemed poised to happen, and then it got snuffed out a couple of times.. yet I would still imagine, that there are some difficulties in being that annoyed by this whole process - especially since the vast majority of us longer term HODLers likely already appreciate that there are no guarantees in bitcoinlandia..so then almost no matter what there should be some appreciation that we are still up 4x from September 2020.

Many longer term HODLers are going to have average prices per BTC that are quite below $10k, so just being in decent profits that are multiples of the size of the BTC investment should be a comfortable place to be...

Another aspect would be how much BTC has been accumulated.  It does not seem to be enough to merely assert that as a long term HODLer you happen to have more than 4x in profits without putting some kind of a number behind it. 

Imagine a few different kinds of HODLers who may have been somewhat persistent with bitcoin and got involved in Bitcoin in around 2017, and I am not even necessarily referring to anything too specific about your situation dude because I do not necessarily even know many of your specifics beyond perhaps throwing some possible variation of you into a hypothetical (#nohomo).


1a) 2017 hypo entrant 1a (decently well off):  Engaged in a variety of lump sum investing, DCA and maybe even selling and rebuying.. and has accumulated 50 plus bitcoin at an average prices below $3k.
1b) 2017 hypo entrant 1b (decently well off):  Engaged in a variety of lump sum investing, DCA and maybe even selling and rebuying.. and has accumulated 50 plus bitcoin at an average prices around $10k.


2a) 2017 hypo entrant 2a (moderately well off):  Engaged in a variety of lump sum investing, DCA and maybe even selling and rebuying.. and has accumulated 21 plus bitcoin at an average prices below $3k.
2b) 2017 hypo entrant 2b (moderately well off):  Engaged in a variety of lump sum investing, DCA and maybe even selling and rebuying.. and has accumulated 21 plus bitcoin at an average prices around $10k.


3a) 2017 hypo entrant 3a (average Joe):  Engaged in a variety of lump sum investing, DCA and maybe even selling and rebuying.. and has accumulated 10-21 bitcoin at an average prices below $3k.
3b) 2017 hypo entrant 3b (average Joe):  Engaged in a variety of lump sum investing, DCA and maybe even selling and rebuying.. and has accumulated 10-21 bitcoin at an average prices around $10k.


4a) 2017 hypo entrant 4a (struggling Joe):  Engaged in mostly DCA'ing and attempted some lump sum investing along the way and has accumulated 3-10 bitcoin at an average prices below $3k.
4b) 2017 hypo entrant 4b (struggling Joe):  Engaged in mostly DCA'ing and attempted some lump sum investing along the way and has accumulated 3-10 bitcoin at an average prices around $10k.


5a) 2017 hypo entrant 5a (Really struggling Joe):  Engaged in mostly DCA'ing and attempted some lump sum investing along the way and has accumulated fewer than 3 bitcoin at an average prices below $3k.
5b) 2017 hypo entrant 5b (Really struggling Joe):  Engaged in mostly DCA'ing and attempted some lump sum investing along the way and has accumulated fewer than 3 bitcoin at an average prices around $10k.


I would characterize all 5(10) above examples as a persistent BTC buyers who had not really deviated from persistence in buying BTC, but has had differing results based on how much means s/he had available.

Probably the ones higher on the list are going to feel more prepared for UP, and maybe even "annoyed" that the BTC price is not going up, but the ones lower on the list might well be relieved to have more BTC accumulating opportunities

Some did sold some at good/reasonable prices compared with now.

But to sit on a load of cash with non intentions not really the best thing imo.

Surely there are questions regarding how anyone might play their selling on the way up.. and if they sell large amounts of their holdings or small amounts, and then surely the questions about when to buy back if that might have been part of the motive for selling.

Though I understand some would like to buy on the cheap, but now price isn’t yet cheap enough to rebuy, maybe if sold at the ATH-ish, other problem is people who haven’t sold any or very low numbers are a bit stuck as well cause if they want something a little more expensive, then it surely isn’t the price to sell atm…

Struggle of a hodlers life ….

Btc to cheap to sell or to high to buy back….  

One of the problems of even including any kind of selling practice as a means to accumulate.. Yet I would suspect that the dilema is not as problematic for either those who are DCAing or those who just buy on dips without selling.. and surely buying on dips could be a variation of DCAing because maybe there would not be a building up of funds, unless there are some inclinations to hold backon the regular buying because there are thoughts that the price might go down further.   Quite likely the dilema for those who are buying only would be less than those who are screwing around with selling.

I know, I know, I know... I do engage in a practice of selling BTC on the way up....so sure.. label me as a bit of a hypocrite...  but I will assert that I have absolutely no dilemma regarding when to buy back, because my method follows a system.. so the amount sold is relatively small.. so then there does not seem to be much of any dilemma regarding when and how to buy back....

My main ongoing personal dilemma seems to come from how far I want to maintain my BTC buy orders, so at some point, I have inclinations to pull some of the value off of the table, but that surely could be problematic if the BTC price were to go way lower than expected.  So currently my BTC buy orders go down to $20k, and I am having some feelings that I would like to pull some of those buy orders between $20k and $25k off of the table, and of course, if BTC prices were to actually dip down into the lower $30ks, I would be feeling way more stress in having had pulled those buy orders between $20k and $25k.. than if I were to just leave them there for a wee bit longer.. how long?  another 6 months?  another year?  How will I know, feel comfortable and have confidence to pull those buy orders (and the cash) off the table?

[d_eddie]

Isn't it fun to think?  

Imagine Intel has designed and produced a wafer or two of these chips.  Proof of Concept.

And say the chips are a significant magnitude faster than the current crop.  And then imagine them able to make serious money when they are burning them in.  Then the meeting where they say, "We can pay a great deal of the R&D and FAB costs of these by just frontrunning the mining before releasing them.  Should we?".

I'd go even further and imagine they are already paying their R&D etc. costs. Think of the recent hashrate ATH, even after so many Chinese miners had to relocate or shut down altogether. Hmm...

Conspiracy or no conspiracy, your call about some yuuge chip company making an ASIC was something!