the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin: +1363%
Gold: -6%
GPL: -36% silverbox long
Diff: +1369% advantage Bitcoin and Growing
Sir, I appreciate your insight very much, but would it not be more appropriate to use "deltaB/deltaA - 1" as the formula? That gives +1456%. |
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And stop saying BS, please. These banks are going down, some people are going to lose money. Better it be those who invested in said banks than tax-victims who had nothing to do with the problem. Even worse would be forcing all EUR holders to pay.
Of course, for the 100th time, the bank shareholders should lose all, they should not be saved at the expense of their clients. And ideally those who made riskier investments should be cut before those who simply held checking accounts. And every creditor or client of the bank that loses something should receive a proportional share of the bank's assets in return. There used to be this story called a "capital structure". According to this story every stakeholder in a company was assigned a certain preference so that if a bankruptcy was to occur the losses would be felt by the different classes of stakeholders in a pre-defined order. People who believed this story used it to calculate risk. Some people decided to accept a lower return in exchange for a safer position in the capital structure, other people decided to take a less senior position in exchange for a higher return. Everybody made their decisions based on the idea these rules would remain objective and unchanged. Then 2008 happened and reality decided to tear down this pretty little fantasy. Much to the dismay of the investors stupid enough to believe in the "rule of law", the way it actually works is when a bank becomes insolvent the losses are eaten by the group of stakeholders who have the least ability to bribe the regulatory and lawmaking apparatus. Your actual position in the capital structure depends on your political clout at the time of bankruptcy. Congratulations, you just learned an expensive lesson in what it means to live in a centrally-planned command economy. Welcome to fascism. PM me your tip jar, I will show my appreciation. |
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Meanwhile in Finland:
My local bank refuses to give out more than EUR 10,000 in cash to me. The stated reason is Easter. Then I ask, "okay, 10,000 more next week?". Answer: "Nope."
They advice me to go to other branches in the same city, so that I could take out the 20k I wanted. <- Note, it was not even big sum I was asking for.
I regularly visit them and take out several 100,000s a year in cash, so it is not that there is any "suspicious activity" rule that they are enforcing.
I had a meeting and then walked to another bank. Because my risk assessment had changed because of the above incident, I wanted to have an additional EUR 20k. After about 15 minutes of paperwork, none of which was anything special or suspicious to me, I was given the cash I wanted. Conclusion: What I did is just a precaution. The bank does not pay me anything for keeping my money. I lose nothing if I take it out. I will spend it in my business in approx. 3-4 weeks even if nothing happens. If everyone did the same, there would be same hell here as in Cyprus.  Ahh... feels safer this way. |
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In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
This is the offical off-topic thread, so you posted in the right place. Somebody is quickly acting on my advice (shame I cannot post a wall pic..)! |
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In Bitstamp currently, BTC300 of bids over $80.
Same amount of asks only in $87!
This gives a 1-2 hour target price of $83.50.
With this kind of reasoning I drove the price up to $80 when finishing my purchases 4 hours ago, even though Mt.Gox was sluggish at $77.
(Would you consider it off-topic as this is a GOX thread..?)
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Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future.
No, there are lots of people with time, skill and more money than you or I will ever have. They also have teams of people working for them around the clock making more money for them. Yes, lol, you see my point. These people have all the above, except that they currently have no experience of bitcoin more than you (or even me). In a sense, if you count minimum 1.5 years of actual bitcoin exposure as a qualifier (along with 24/7 free time and $1M+ worth), I estimate there are about 100 people in the world. 3 or more years of exposure, free time + assistants doing trading for you and $10M net worth, max 10 people. Minimum 10 years experience on trading and crypto, an organisation of your own to do what ever you command and $250M+ net worth, perhaps only MP and the U.S. government qualify. So which one is pumping up the value..  |
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Conclusion: What I did is just a precaution. The bank does not pay me anything for keeping my money. I lose nothing if I take it out. I will spend it in my business in approx. 3-4 weeks even if nothing happens. If everyone did the same, there would be same hell here as in Cyprus.
Are you saying that banks don't pay interest in Finland or that the interest is at or below the rate of inflation so the interest doesn't stop the real value of your savings from decreasing? I think for regular people it's around 0.250% for spending accounts. That is under 2k I think. Not sure how much under euribor it is probably around 0.750% for larger savings on regular accounts. Of course you have saving accounts with better interest, but then also can't use at any time. The euribor is ranging from .12% to .55% depending on the maturity. I could theoretically borrow money at about 1% interest for house, but the banks are not so keen on having me as a customer (how come?) Ppl get 0.25% for spending/saving acct. Businesses get 0% + fees. The way to increase the marketed yield is to demand a multi-year contract with 50% of the money invested in the bank's mutual fund. They can siphon off enough to be able to offer about 1.55% for the account part this way. The reason why I believe the risk for crash has increased, is that insurance against it costs nothing, AND if people go for it, it is causing the very crash they are trying to insure themselves from. Price inflation is approx. 3.5%-5.5% measured over 10 years (food and energy, that is, the things they usually exclude  ) |
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So if I deposit BTC from MTGox to Bitcoin 24 and withdraw there in Euro, transfering by wiretransfer the cash back to my Bank / MTGOX i can practically make extra cash, especially when selling out my BTC?
Currently at Bitcoin24 EURO 64.33, thats $ 82.73, means about $ 4 profit / 1 BTC.
For my 500 BTC it makes a difference in profit of $ 2000 !!! Is that real?
EDITED
So what happens when the price keeps rising and you've done a few trades like this and now all your money is in Euro on Bitcoin24 and you've ran out of BTC on MtGox ?
Then you need to start sending wires right ?
If you just wait a bit they will catch up in value anyway, unless there's some kind of reverse trend, correction or crash.
You shouldn't have to transfer fiat from Bitcoin24 to MtGox for the trade itself, you should do this with some extra fiat you'd otherwise wouldn't invest in Bitcoin. Selling at Bitcoin24 and buying at MtGox should be done within a few seconds, to minimize the risk the price moves within your trade. When the trade is done, you could send some or all of your excess fiat from Bitcoin24 to MtGox when you expect another situation where Bitcoin24 trades at a premium. The risk is that if you're inexperienced, it's easy to make some stupid mistake which could cost you lots of money. For that reason I prefer a buy and hold strategy. Same strategy for the same reason... There are not so many people in the world, who can follow Bitcoin 24/7 and have the resources to understand what is going on. That is why it seems that the market is mispricing things. We are the market, and we don't have any more capacity to arbitrage, it is currently maxed out, since to do effective trading, you need: - time - skill - money. I personally bought $130k during the last 21 hours in Bitstamp, admittedly paying more than in Gox, but I did it anyway, cold-bloodedly sending my money to the less liquid exchange because I knew I would get it there sooner. I sent a smaller chunk to Mt.Gox at the same time, yet it is still not there yet. Gox is already higher than my average entry price (of the last 21 hours). I anticipate we breach $100 tomorrow or Thursday with 40% probability, latest next Monday in 15% probability, later next week in 15% probability, and this spring in 15% probability. See, I think there is only about 15% chance that we will not break $100 (before the summer). Do you think I am the only one with time, skill, and money. Yes, maybe for now, but there will be more in the future. I know of many, that is why I am maxing out. We are in the process of making a killing. Just be careful with the "sell" button, it is red for a reason  |
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Meanwhile in Finland:
My local bank refuses to give out more than EUR 10,000 in cash to me. The stated reason is Easter. Then I ask, "okay, 10,000 more next week?". Answer: "Nope."
They advice me to go to other branches in the same city, so that I could take out the 20k I wanted. <- Note, it was not even big sum I was asking for.
I regularly visit them and take out several 100,000s a year in cash, so it is not that there is any "suspicious activity" rule that they are enforcing.
I had a meeting and then walked to another bank. Because my risk assessment had changed because of the above incident, I wanted to have an additional EUR 20k. After about 15 minutes of paperwork, none of which was anything special or suspicious to me, I was given the cash I wanted. Conclusion: What I did is just a precaution. The bank does not pay me anything for keeping my money. I lose nothing if I take it out. I will spend it in my business in approx. 3-4 weeks even if nothing happens. If everyone did the same, there would be same hell here as in Cyprus. |
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Meanwhile in Finland:
My local bank refuses to give out more than EUR 10,000 in cash to me. The stated reason is Easter. Then I ask, "okay, 10,000 more next week?". Answer: "Nope."
They advice me to go to other branches in the same city, so that I could take out the 20k I wanted. <- Note, it was not even big sum I was asking for.
I regularly visit them and take out several 100,000s a year in cash, so it is not that there is any "suspicious activity" rule that they are enforcing.
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Declare war on Bitcoin and drone anyone who ever heard read or said or wrote word Bitcoin. Send the drones to take out every computer that ever was spotted on Bitcoin network. Damn.... I am missing out on a brilliant career in government.
Yeah. Even if the government's secret agenda was to "be the enemy of all its citizens, all good, all progress and all fun" (which I don't even literally believe), it is certainly not good tactics to do what you described. |
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Bitcoin can be a bit of a tarbaby when it comes to defeating it. Many conceivable attacks may give rise to consequences that are even more pernicious from the standpoint of a government/central bank. You can be sure this is already being gamed out in the think tanks.
Alternately, a government could make great use of Bitcoin, or a Bitcoin-like system. Remember, onion routing was developed by the U.S. Navy. Gavin has stated (or perhaps, implied) that the CIA had expressed interest in the potential use of Bitcoin as a clandestine payment system. Bitcoin could also serve as a rich source of intelligence through money-mapping techniques, &etc. As such, I would expect that there could be (not a few) Bitcoin related service businesses that act as fronts for intelligence community data collection and operations support.
Aside from that kind of entanglement I suppose that a government could involve itself in attacks on the exchange markets designed to remove liquidity from markets. It would take deep pockets to do this, but even at a billion dollar 'market capitalization' those means are well within reach of a government. Although, given the right kind of intelligence such a trading program could be targeted to affecting the liquidity of an individual trader.
There may be a show at some sort of legal intervention, but I expect that it would be by way of an artful manipulation of the direction of Bitcoin development rather than any genuine effort to abolishing it.
Very good points. To add: - "The government" presumably means the U.S. government, and its allies. They do not 100% own the world yet, so an outright attempt to discredit/destroy bitcoin may end up just harming their own citizens, while enriching others. Not that they cared.. - The idea of a cruptocurrency cannot be destroyed by rooting up its offspring, the cryptocurrencies. If they want the world to be content without cryptocurrencies, they need to disprove their validity and usefulness. That cannot be done by force. By just wrecking Spinning Jennys, the idea is not destroyed, but rather gains more traction. A 51% attack against a certain crypto would do more harm to the gov than good. - I am sure the NSA has gathered a formidable database of compromised private keys. This may amount to 25%-75% of all bitcoins existing. We don't even know all the methods they have for snooping us. Even if they wrecked with these all at once, I don't believe it would do more than to infuriate all the honest users against their own gov. Governments typically want to avoid provoking extremism. |
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Very intersting data znort. I put them into a spreadsheet and came up with this chart.  Pie Chart  Do the same in a strictly logarithmic fashion, ie. <1 1-2 2-4 4-8 8-16 ... 1000-2000 2000-4000 etc Much appreciated  |
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Me to, going to visit my bank when it opens this morning and get rid of any of my European stocks and zero my accounts except what i need to pay my bills.
I also go to cash only mode tomorrow morning. |
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Mtgox really needs to do something. Either lower their fees or fix their server, or preferably both
Upping their fees to 2% would help with the lags more than lowering them...  a volume per bid/offer discount and small bid/offer volume penalty would do a much better job Oh yeah, a fixed fee per new order! That's the way to go.. If the lag is because of an influx of new orders, how about a fee  I believe he means a fixed fee for the .01 dust orders. I'm not sure what purpose the .01 trades are for, any guesses? Same fee for everybody! Legit traders couldn't care less about .01 fee.. The purpose of dust is to obfuscate the sight. |
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Mtgox really needs to do something. Either lower their fees or fix their server, or preferably both
Upping their fees to 2% would help with the lags more than lowering them... a volume per bid/offer discount and small bid/offer volume penalty would do a much better job Oh yeah, a fixed fee per new order! That's the way to go.. If the lag is because of an influx of new orders, how about a fee |
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Mtgox really needs to do something. Either lower their fees or fix their server, or preferably both
Upping their fees to 2% would help with the lags more than lowering them... |
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I bet all those people that sold 50+ coins at 72 are really laughing at us bulls now.
o wait.
BUT WE'RE OVEREXTENDED!!!! HAVEN'T YOU SEEN THE MACD, YOU FOOLS!?!?!?!?! So what. I want to buy some bitcoins and I want it now. :,: 10,000 times. |
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Forking fonk.  A 3-hour meeting with bookkeepers and price +5%. And my fooking ca$h is not even in the fagin exchange yet.........! |
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