just want to add this
when the Bid side is usually weak there isnt a sell off (no money to get maximum value), when the bid side is Super filled that is usually when I notice some big action moving
when the Ask side is usually strong there is usually big buys since there are alot of bitcoins sitting waiting to be scooped up,
this is just a observation from watching the price practically 24/7 with my other assets
I've observed the same thing. If this has some merit, it means that another big dump right after one is unlikely (because bids are very thin in the cleared area). The only options are up or slow grind down or sideways. This further means that most likely the next dump will happen only after we've moved substantially higher (this fills in lots of bids) or we've gone sideways for a comparably long period (this also fills in bids, but much slower). All in all I think these dumps and the breathtakingly quick recoveries from them are very healthy for quite a few reasons. One of the important ones is that it instills confidence. Another one is that money changes hands from people who are likely well in the profit zone (bought substantially lower) to hands who are just getting into the game. This decreases the overall willingness to sell until the price moves up again. It also distributes "old money" to newcomers... a good thing. Of course this is fundamentally driven by newbs flooding in. |
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MtGox should get some serious hardware... one dump and everything freezes... still can not see Live graph...
it's because Magicaltux manually audits every trade since the hack. Knowing that the speed is quite impressive. |
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Excellent ! Thx for prompt reply - I'll sort myself out some more BTC tomo and work out how to buy 2 from you over the weekend (dont think I have PM rights yet).
I was going to say: "it was pure coincidence I saw this thread, why didn't you PM me"  Am I right thinking that Series 1 are all gone ? Everywhere ?
I have 1 left which I will keep. A friend of mine has like 6 but he'll take them to his grave. There are, however, 6000 out there. I think there's even one on bitmit? Prepare to pay BTC 2.0 to BTC 2.5 for one, though. If you want to order from me, just post to my thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138522. You'll have to give me a shipping address, of course, after you've payed. Once you order I can give you an email-address where you can send it. |
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Part of it might be that the early investors you speak of are all but cashed out.
Source to back up your generalizing statement? I have no source. Which is why I used the word "might". I was speculating, like everyone else in this thread. I think it's 99% true, the early guys got in at $0.001/BTC, and when BTC hit $10, any sensible guy will cash out for a 1000X profit, even if BTC reach $100 that's just 10X more profit, why would they risk it all for 10X more profit, when they already got 1000X. Because then they'd have 10,000x profit? Sounds great to me. You don't understand, going from 1000X to 10000X is only a 10X profit, while the risk is extremely high. Any sane person would cash out majority of his holdings at 1000X, instead of wait for 10000x I'm insane by that definition. You might not understand this way of thinking, but some really value BTC much higher (structurally) in the sense that it's real money that keeps it's value. Why the shit would I "cash out" into a collapsing fiat currency? Ever. This is not some fucking penny-stock. This is bitcoin, the money of the internet.  EDIT: I didn't read correctly... you were talking about real early guys. Also thought you meant 1000% (which my early coins might show). I'd have to rethink wether I would've cashed out (some) had I bought some coins at $0.001, which I haven't, I got in at $0.80 and didn't buy much, but I suspect my thinking from above would still hold true. Might've cashed out some, "just to be safe", though. |
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The coming crash is going to be epic.
I agree. Only difference it seems is when we will crash and whether the post crash price will be higher than the current price or not. $31.9099 is the new $5 ? |
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Hiya,
I have bought my first BTC via a UKBT and would like to order a couple/three OTC physicals. I can see that molecular is doing honest deals but everything is in BTCs. Is it bad form to offer local currency ? Otherwise I have to score more BTCs online with cash and then use them to fund the Casascius physicals. Seems a long way round...anyone ? Molecular ?
Sterling? You mean real silver coins? We could do that, I guess. It's not bad form to offer fiat, but I honestly think it would be more straightforward if you acquired some BTC yourself (I would have to turn around and take your GBP or whatever you're offering right away and exchange for BTC. I'm trying to minimize SEPA as much as possible). You could use localbitcoins.com to find a local dealer and buy some for cash... There's also substantial chargeback risk for me involved with using sepa. I did some auctions on ebay, but it's not worth it (no profit) because of the 9% ebay takes plus the %3.2 paypal takes (out-fucking-rageous, no?). Let's stick to bitcoin if possible. |
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As a legacy CPU bitcoin miner, I watched the whole bubble #1 back in June 2011.
This might be too personal a question, but did you sell some? If so at what point? I myself am from the GPU era and I held on to my coins all the way through the bubble, accumulating (too moderatly, of course) both on the way up and on the way down... little did I know how markets worked at the time. Little do I know now, so best strategy for me is still hold. |
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On the other hand, many view bitcoin as having two roles, each supporting the other, to wit: (1) transactions, and (2) deflationary store of value. There are good fundamentals on transaction volume, as seen in the blockchain.info log charts. I think the divergence from these fundamentals is under way.
Imo it diverged already: the transactional features of bitcoin alone would support a price of maybe around $1 (it's transactional features are the closest thing to "intrinsic value" I can think of with bitcoin, btw). So we're already well in gold-territory with the bulk of the value being based on store-of-wealth. This is just my gut feeling at this point (I had calculated a while ago that bitcoin needed to be worth $0.25 in order to drive an "economy" 10 times the size of silkroad, so I don't think $1 is far from the truth). I really think bitcoins unique combination of the 2 features you mentioned (transactional, store of wealth) make it a winner. The two will reciprocally escalate each others usefulness. |
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I think I interpret it in the same way - that is we are in the first leg of the bubble from around 12 and which can be around 800% growth (stop around 100) - the analogue of the growth from 1$ to 8$ - then we can have another leg even steeper around 400% growth (or more, the 2011 one stopped because of the hack, but presumably could go even higher). I would only add that the real peak will last very short. Then we can also get bad news any time - so it is very risky to try reach the peak. But it can also go a completely different way this time The '11 bubble did not get stopped by the hack. The hack was considerably after the top was reached. There was even a smack-down to $10 before the hack and a week passed after that until the hack happened around $16. +1 on your last sentence. |
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As a legacy CPU bitcoin miner, I watched the whole bubble #1 back in June 2011. The recent breakthrough a new high is accompanied by increased volume and volatility. A few more media stories are coming out -and the bitcoin economy indicators are continuing exponential growth, albeit from a minuscule base.
I think that we are in the first 20% range of the next bubble - sort of the hills from which we can see the foothills, and from where can see the mountains. Like that, right?
Sounds good to me. Another argument with similar results was recently made: Assuming that the two boom patterns should be similar (i.e. the whole thing be a fractal) - then the second is still very far from the top, it still might grow maybe 10 times. Exactly. In my opinion the current situation is at most a "small bubble", meaning that there can be a correction, but it's unlikely to be a deep one. To experience a "massive bubble" we would need to see the all time high broken and then panic buys from there. That is the point when it's smart to become skeptical. there have been 3 "steps" in the 2011 runup to the bubble (from base of about $1): - the jump to $2
- the jump to $4
- the jump to $9
So the top of the current bubble is either 450, 225 or 100 depending what "jump" the current one is similar to. I don't believe in this fractal stuff applying to markets somehow, though. |
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Fun times! If the paper price in gold is pushed below $1550 on a closing basis, we'll have a separation from physical.
What are you basing this on? Isn't a separation from physical a continuous thing? Like premiums gradually increasing? |
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soon ill be rich!  The wall at 34 will be gone in a moment. wow man, all that carefully held-back bull juice all over the place now. what a blast-off |
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That guy is interesting (hadn't heard of him before). Just watching another video: The other thing that I think is interesting about political risk, especiall when I hear this objection from libertarians and anarcho-capitalists is that political risk in 3rd-world nations, political risk in frontier nations and in particular political risk in non-white nations is less extreme than political risk here. It's as though our community believes that money that is stolen from you "in english", by caucasians, according to the rule of law is somehow less gone.
(I'm not exactly sure what are his issues with libertarians and anarcho-caplitalists... he seems to be talking in front of them and his nervousness indicates he feels a bit like as though he was in the lions den. Maybe someone can enlighten me) |
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Schön geschrieben (dein blog). Hast mit außerdem Zeit und wohl auch nerven gespart. Danke |
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You can type any currency pair you want into the trade dropdown. Speaking of which, can anybody else see my BTC/BTC trade? The client makes it a puzzle to set up the trade correctly, but I don't see a reason it shouldn't work.
BTC/BTC? How do you see that market... I can't see that currency pair. Once I select an issuer of base currency, I cannot change the secondary currency other than by selecting a currency pair from the drop-down which does not contain BTC/BTC. I think what he's saying is that he synthesized that pair by looking at BTCwee/XRP and BTCbitstamp/XRP. When you cancel out XRP, it gives you BCTwee/BCTbitstamp. I'm not sure why we can't see that pair directly, though. We can already see crosses between different IOU issuers, BTCbitstamp/USDwee, for instance, so why not BTCx/BTCy crosses? No – you can see that pair directly by typing "BTC/BTC" in the dropdown field and setting the issuers correctly. holy shit. I call that a "hidden feature" |
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fett. wer is der typ? Hatter extrem gut gemacht. |
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That's why it's important to do research into building efficient and privacy preserving tax systems that can apply to cryptocurrencies (and yes, they exist, Bitcoin is not the end of taxation).
This is such a terrible piece of bullshit. We do not exist for governments, it's the other way around. Governments exist for us. We should pay taxes because we want to, not because we are forced to. If we are all forced to pay taxes we don't want to pay, it means that something is seriously wrong with our democracy. And actually, because what I said is the case in most countries in the world (except for Switzerland and maybe few other countries) , there is something wrong with the whole world actually. So the sooner the world changes to the situation where people WILL WANT TO PAY THE TAXES (because they will know that the money will be well spent), the better. Do let us know when you catch that unicorn.  I lol'd. You give me the choice to not pay taxes and I don't care if the govt is handing out whisky, joints and whores I'm not given 'em any money. People like you are one of the reasons why taxes (and almost everything coming from government) have to be forced. You should reduce your assholeness level. You just keep on chasin that unicorn sweetheart. LOL This kind of an attitude sickens me. |
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I really don't see why people are saying MoneyPakTrader is the scammer and not TF.
I saw the code, half it's functions were not working, the structure looks like it was made by a 14 year old with 2 months experience.
IMHO, the job that MoneyPakTrader paid for was not delivered in time nor completed, so he deserves at-least a partial refund.
IT Projects are never on time. TF should get his stuff fixed and deliver a usable product that is within spec. |
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In general, the goldbugs and silver stackers are slowly coming around. This has started to pick up some speed in summer '12.
In my mind, this is fundamentally better news than coinlab or other "investor adoption" news, because goldbugs are going to be in for the long game, are used to volatility and don't easily sell on bad news or large smackdowns.
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