I can imagine a bit of both accumulation and distribution; that is to say, much like many other markets.
I think there will be the 99% / 1% kind of distribution all over again. Average people in a decade will likely be buying in mBTC while there are a couple of large holder companies that have been collecting all along without trying to disturb the public market. As I write that it reminds me of the gold market.
This. Average Joe bitcoiners see the price doing nothing, so they do nothing (i.e., don't buy, don't accumulate). But they are mistaken to think that MM's, large institutions, banks, etc. are not quietly accumulating right now. It's easy for them to accumulate off exchange directly from large miners (or perhaps they ARE the large miners? Hmm?) without moving the market one iota. Then they will run it up when they are ready. This happens in pretty much every equity/asset market on the planet. This is why over time in the future the majority of Bitcoin will likely be owned by the 1% wealthy oligarchs. Because Average Joes are just completely ignorant of how the financial world really works. . There is always the "smart money". Free of politics, superstition, wacko conspiracy theories; people who look at math rather than opinion. When the price goes up I'm sure they will all be accused of cheating somehow. In reality they outplay the competition. Nothing is maybe a strong word, but contemporary history is showing that is not always is the case: check the wikis for Severin, Moskowitz, Sean Parker etc in conjunction with Facebook. They were there in the beginning or close, did not do much later, but are currently worth at least $4-5 bil each. Bitcoin is similar: those who were there/mined first have lots of coins, and later contributors have progressively less. We already have 99/1 bitcoin distribution. I don't see how and why it would change. |
|
|
|
Yup. Crazy days. I've been using this thing the entire time I've been trying to sell it, but I'm still going to charge you the full retail price, which by the way is now higher than what it was had you bought it when I first offered it for sale.
Seriously, these things are collectibles... they aren't classic cars... a Babe Ruth rookie card in pristine condition... they're a mass produced commodity.
too early to say...we'll see in 30-40 years (see Apple II prices) |
|
|
|
|
Wider ownership of bitcoin is easy to envision, but lending for production is more difficult.
Maybe we would need to have some derivative for lending as interest rates on bitcoin would be a double whammy if bitcoin would be appreciating at the same time.
In other words, why would someone lend bitcoin if they don't collect interest rates?
However, if you borrow in bitcoin and it is appreciating, you most likely will not be able to pay it back as increasing interest payments will crush you.
|
|
|
|
I prefer bitmaintech.com doing this slow growth model. Rather then the price war with spondoolies sp20
Dumping the s - 5 at 310 usd back in dec and jan crashe btc to 180. I am hanging in until sept and hope for new gear then I will buy some and mine with my winter power prices from October to May . Then sell it off into hopefully a pre half-ing price jump.
The plan is revealed so let's see if I can do it.
Judging by used s5 prices, bitmain will give us all a price shock for S7 Perhaps, slowly buying some coin right now is advisable. If price goes down, hold until halving, if price goes up-you will save on btc numbers for S7. |
|
|
|
no need to lower the price if people are buying it anyway  they would be stupid or something and worth to mention is there is only 15 days warranty from shipping out on batch7 s5.. so thats probably like week warranty when u get miners  So true which leads us to the conclusion that buyers would be so so stupid  basic economics of supply and demand. If you want to buy a miner, your options are currently quite limited. It will not last long, though, if prices will go on the upswing. NOT working (for parts or repair) SP20 has a $406.01 bid right now on ebay with 4 days to go. |
|
|
|
If the price would still be around 270$ in 2020 i honestly would not be super surpriced, perphaps i would raise one eyebrow, but nothing beyound that.
I would not be super surprised too, it can happen as we see the current price is not what we want. And we didn't speculate that it would be so. So I think it would go 500$ - 800$ maximum by 2020 (5 years from now is not much) I don't think that $500 in 5 years is possible. In 2020 we will be already in the 6.25 BTC/block era vs 25BTC right now. Even if difficulty will stay pat (it won't), miners will go out of business with price less than 4X288X0.7=$806.4 I allowed a coefficient of 0.7 to indicate that some miners would still be making money if prices would be 70% of current. So, either >$800/BTC or bust (single digits) in 2020. |
|
|
|
There wont be an S6. They jump to the S7and we are around 2 month before launch.
Thats what they told me.
They are selling used S5 miners right now (I assume from their own mines). Naturally, they are probably replacing those miners with new (S7), otherwise why bother. In two months they might start sales, but I have no doubt that during these two months they will be delivering from factory to themselves and mining with unannounced New miners-that 80PH jump in hashing speed very nicely coincided with used S5 sales announcement-don't you think?. After 1-2 mo, they will sell to us, probably a mixture of brand new and from their mine. |
|
|
|
Those are nice charts. I thought the defeat of the bearwhale at 300 (in Oct?) would set a new bottom, but no luck. I am still optimistic about bitcoin, but seriously doubt that boom times of the run up to 1000 will be back any time soon.
I hope I'm wrong, and that the title of your thread is right on!
Good Luck!
you're not wrong. it's actually nice to see that there are still realistic people here that look at facts, instead of living in a fantasy world regarding the bitcoin price. we just need patience. that's all. $1000 is a matter of years before we see it again. The USD will crash this year before september 23. Bitcoin should be well over 1000 by october 2015. if usd crash bitcoin will be over 10k in no time not just over 1k, and usd will not crash anytime soon, so i don't know what you are talking about with that random september 23 all these september 2015 usd crash predictions are not based on anything substantial, just some website warnings. If you look back to 1990, 2009, 2010, 2013-there were even more dire predictions that never panned out. With commodities in a deep funk (oil, gold, etc hitting new lows), I just don't see how it could happen in such short time frame. |
|
|
|
antminer S5 lotto 7, USD 394 = btc 1.417. miner used? crazyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
they are almost (seemingly) in a monopoly position, hence the price. However, to compare-check ebay with SP20 somewhere above 600 in final price. There are a couple auctions ending in 4-5 days, so we will see what the price would be. SP30 is bidding at $2333 right now, which is equal ~$520/S5 ($596 by GH minus ~$76 for PSU) Broken SP20 for parts or repair has the bid at $307 right now. It is what it is. I conclude that right now there is misbalance of supply/demand=sellers market. In January there was a severe buyers market, hence Bitmain price-"killed" SP20, which was sold for a loss for the final batch at $400. |
|
|
|
Thanks. It miraculously recovered to a state where i just needed to restart the cgminer. Of some use: i think that one ASIC started to malfunction and overheat (others are OK) which resulted in some software malfunction, so i simply switched it (bad ASIC) off; mining resumed on 7/8 ASICs at ~1090 Gh and ~600w at the wall. This SP20E was mining since December, so I guess it simply started to age a little. |
|
|
|
|
SP20 not working since this am.
I can see it on the network, ethernet is green, but I see double blinking of the yellow light.
can this be fixed by SD-card or is this most likely the controller?
If SD-card, then is there a procedure for a Mac (preferably) or Windows (7 or XP)?
Thanks
|
|
|
|
Sigh, "outside money will come" ... just like ponzi schemes "money has to come" to fuel price increase, bitcoin is not a liquid asset it is a non tangible asset account / commodity contract at best. All of it is based on backless speculative value... The dream for 1000+ dollars a bitcoin is a wishful dream, but who will be fueling that price increasing? Are you going to find an outside money source? (banks, inv funds) They currently have marked bitcoin as a commodity , and as such no standard liquid value besides perceived speculative value. (think of it as the dutch tulips, beanie babies, etc) side note: for those that want more understanding of "asset classes" google "what is bitcoin classified as" .. some articles: http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-classified-commodity-finland-central-bank/ | http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-03-25/bitcoin-is-property-not-currency-in-tax-system-irs-saysbitcoin a commodity? hardly. Commodities: wheat, sugar, corn, oil are being CONSUMED Bitcoin, once "mined', can be used many times, some might say essentially forever (until it is lost) |
|
|
|
|
I also agree with the main OP thesis that other money will come at ATH.
Not only that, but bitcoin distribution (from bigger wallets/accounts) will also occur then and all the way to the new ATH.
Without ATH coin distribution will stay basically unchanged.
|
|
|
|
http://www.techrepublic.com/article/how-a-physics-discovery-85-years-in-the-making-could-change-how-we-build-electronics/One of the biggest finds is that, using Weyl fermions, the researchers will be able to create fast-moving electrons with no risk of backscattering, or loss of electrons in a collision. Backscattering makes electronics less efficient and creates heat. Weyl electrons are able to avoid collisions and eliminate backscattering.
Essentially, what this means is that the Weyl fermions could provide a better flow of electricity and assist in the creation of more powerful and efficient electronics, especially in computers.
|
|
|
|
Interesting: http://www.techrepublic.com/article/how-a-physics-discovery-85-years-in-the-making-could-change-how-we-build-electronics/electronics changing into more efficient weylionics? I wonder how long it would take? One of the biggest finds is that, using Weyl fermions, the researchers will be able to create fast-moving electrons with no risk of backscattering, or loss of electrons in a collision. Backscattering makes electronics less efficient and creates heat. Weyl electrons are able to avoid collisions and eliminate backscattering.
Essentially, what this means is that the Weyl fermions could provide a better flow of electricity and assist in the creation of more powerful and efficient electronics, especially in computers. |
|
|
|
|
If you don't follow the market at large...
Google jumped 71 bil (~15%) in market cap today.
This equals 17.6X bitcoin entire market cap.
One stock, one day jump equals 17.6X bitcoin.
Conclusion: bitcoin is like a tiny seed. It could either grow into a tree thousand time larger or die trying.
|
|
|
|
|
It is sometimes beneficial to look at the other side view for a moment.
Practically the entire bitcoin community suggests that we will have a glorious bubble on or around 2016 halving.
However, fully expected events in any market almost never come to fruition.
So, what unexpected scenario(s) could unfold?
a. An antibubble (hard down) caused by some unforeseen circumstances?
b. Mining demise, hence a decreased network ability to process transactions resulting in bitcoin "crisis"?
c. Developers focus on other crypto, hence bitcoin becoming "boring" and fizzling away?
Yet, I cannot foresee any of these possibilities actually happening, so maybe instead of anti-bubble we would just have a boring flat market all the way?
|
|
|
|
Well I am an optimist. So I see the glass as half full. This is a funny industry we are playing in. Could end up being very big or fully busted out in the next ten years.
Yeah, i am calling myself an optimist as well. It would be interesting either way Are we an early christians so to speak or "cult" members? History will show. |
|
|
|
So much for that the buy button on the S5 Meltdown series works again at the time of this post. oh well I guess no S7 or S6 yet.
For what it's worth I have yet to see a meltdown. I know with my batch 1 I have had time without internet. I guess it could be do to external fan's in my summer mining area, or luck. But I wonder if the meltdown effects all or some. I think only some have the issue. The few I had were okay but they were very early orders. same here, early orders were OK. In later batches someone with multiple machines also reported that not all machines had the "bug". |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
