I apologize for having to bring a little realism to this thread but..
No. Bitcoin will do POORLY in a crisis. Remember even gold collapsed 25% in the 2008 crash. The last thing on people's minds in a crisis is adopting some obscure speculative asset.
25% is less than >~50% by which the stock markets declined, but re bitcoin-I have no idea, although it is up now. I am pro bitcoin and wants to see more people using it. Bitcoin will become extremely popular but I cannot see Bitcoin becoming a reserve currency. Central banks and governments would rather buy gold than bitcoin.
Will it take a crisis to bring people to recognise bitcoin? We don't need a crisis to succeed, but a crisis would accelerate the growth of Bitcoin.
Central banks are notoriously bad at timing their buys and sells of gold. Remember Bank of England selling ALL of their gold at $250-290. Nice timing! |
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maybe the first number represents all addresses, including those with zero balance, while bitinfocharts only include those with a non-zero balance? |
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Maybe 957 addresses contain 50% of all coins.
Addresses =/= people tho.
No, top 957 addresses contain ~38% coins. I also think that at least some of those are exchanges and other corps. use the sum of pages 1-10 (until 957). http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100?page=1 |
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I honestly doubt how that information is legit, and i'm confident that bitcoins are much more spread out across the users.
But even if this was to be true, i doubt they are arranging price manipulation of sorts.
cheers
He is a finance guy first and foremost. Now, he comes in as a CEO of a bitcoin company and basically says that he doesn't like the fact that bitcoin is concentrated. I assume that his numbers are not accurate, and if it is so, typically it does not bode well for someone's credibility if your reference point is wrong. If, on the other hand, his numbers are accurate, then two questions: 1. Where did he get the numbers? 2. What he is planning to do about it as he portrayed the uneven distribution as a major weakness of bitcoin which is preventing its wider use. |
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Hey CG, Wassssuuupppp!
You wouldn't, per chance, know who AM sourced those heatsinks from?
If one were to TIG the sinks together and TIG a cap/tank on each end with an appropriately sized piece of AL square tube stock down the center. . . .
Will post pics when finished.
Any word/rumors on FriedCat's whereabouts?
Sorry, I don't have any knowledge of where AM was sourcing the heatsinks and haven't heard from Friedcat since last year. I imagine if you weld 4 heatsinks together, you could have a pretty solid short range potato cannon, which should hold you over while sidehack works on the boards. Well the 4th of July is on the horizon. hhhhmmmmmm. A liquid cooled potato cannon. Interesting concept. Now if I can just get DARPA funding . . . . OR sell this idea to 'Big Head' Bighetti of Hooli ("silicon valley") |
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For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*. Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here? You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room. It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky. But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking. It's a fantasy.
Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now. So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold? Maybe. How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East? It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world. The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica. did you see google fiber (1gbit/sec) in then top-notch 28K modem of just 20 years ago? things change (X40000 in example above). |
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For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*. Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here? You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room. It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky. But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking. It's a fantasy.
Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now. So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold? Maybe. |
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i see interested parties at some point raising the issue initially under the guise of "lost coins", which is a somewhat equivalent of "wear and tear".
apparently, those 'lost' coins are a significant % of the total already.
How would we ever know what was lost or what was simply dormant? I agree it's a possibility but it would be the start of a slippery slope that would have most sprinting for the exit. If you can't depend on the core principles then you're not gonna stick around for other meddlings. It'll be fascinating to see what the future power struggles will consist of. It could be horrifically messy or settle down for good. Not only is it the world's most powerful computing experiment, it might also become the world's largest social experiment in consensus or fatal lack thereof. I basically agree with your interpretation. Looking at how 'easy' it was to force through a major change re the size of a block in a very short timeframe, I don't see that 21 mil will also escape a challenge at some time and we shall see what happens then (consensus or a fatal lack thereof). In fact, before such challenge we would never know how solid the consensus is/will be. |
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...assuming that there will be a lot of usage and ONLY 21 mil bitcoins
However, if 1mb block limit can be overturned so easily, who is to say that 21 mil limit is untouchable if miners will decide otherwise?
The block limit was a temporary measure implemented a long time ago. 21 mil is one of the very cornerstones of the whole thing. Apart from a few special cases, most agree that something has to be done about transaction limits. I haven't heard a squeak about raising the total number of coins. If the subject ever was raised semi seriously I assume it'll be a long way down the line and even more controversial than it would be now. i see interested parties at some point raising the issue initially under the guise of "lost coins", which is a somewhat equivalent of "wear and tear". apparently, those 'lost' coins are a significant % of the total already. |
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And 21 million divided by 100 is 210,000 which is a lot less than 12 million (millionaires in the world today) BTC100 is looking like a pretty exclusive club to me.
there are many more millionaires than 12 mil. According to recent numbers there are: ~2700 people worth >500mil ~29300 people worth >100mil ~84500 people worth >50mil ~928000 people worth 10-50 mil ~1.92mil worth 5-10mil total millionaires at least 29 mil http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealthas far as bitcoin is concerned, according to Rpietila numbers, there are ~85000 people with 10-100 BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0IF all wealth will transfer to btc (A very big IF, which I don't subscribe to), then 10-100 BTC will =~$50 mil, making BTC= $0.5-5 mil or 0.5-5c/satoshi Is is possible-maybe. What is the chance? Unknowable. |
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Assuming it's still alive by then, 2024-2025 will be the most interesting phase to witness.
By that point 90% of coins will be mined and annual inflation will be below 2%. If there is sustained and increasing demand the price can only go one way.
People will look back and gape at a time when millions of new coins were arriving every year.
Very true, in 2025 everyone will wish they had a time machine to go back to now so they could own at least 1 bitcoin. What's crazy that time period is only 9 years away, and there will be 3 halvings in that period, 2016, 2020, and 2024. The reward will only be around 3 bitcoin per block. It will be interesting to watch this unfold over the next decade. ...assuming that there will be a lot of usage and ONLY 21 mil bitcoins However, if 1mb block limit can be overturned so easily, who is to say that 21 mil limit is untouchable if miners will decide otherwise? |
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It should be interesting to see how bitcoin performs during a financial crash. People are optimistic that people will run from the S&P and the USD into bitcoin. I think bitcoin will end up getting smashed along with tech stocks.
Everything except short end of the sovereign bonds will get smashed going into the October global contagion. After that, bonds will collapse and all private assets will rocket up, including gold, BTC, and US stocks. The lows for gold and BTC in this coming final hooray for sovereign bonds are going to be severe. The stock market bubbles will pop but it sounds silly to say that it will definitely be in October and not before and not after. The market always does the exact opposite of what i expect, or at least it takes inordinate amount of time for market to match my 'expectations', which pretty much mostly precludes me from getting much of cap gains in bearish positions (longs are OK for now, except btc). example 1- thought RE will go down in 2006, but it lingered until 2008 example 2- though that we will never go above Sp500 1576 and make a triple top-but we are at >2100 example 3- bitcoin (thought that $350 was THE bottom) Re SP500-Hussman was always wrong in the last 3 years, but so was Roger Babson in 1928-1929. Hussman: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150615.htmBlodget on Hussman and Babson: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-coming-2015-6 |
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So is it still the case spondoolies aren't going to be selling any more home mining equipment?
they seem to be hedgy about this |
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there is a lot that needs to be changed in bitcoin for wide acceptance: transaction limits, how to reverse payments, improved fungibility, etc.
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I think a market cap of 8-20 billion is appropriate for the current market ($380-$952 BTC). I think if paypal/ebay/amazon start accepting it, you could make the case for an 80 billion dollar market cap ($3,800 BTC). If investors begin to embrace the coming ETF and companies like Walmart start accepting it, you could probably make a case for a 200 billion dollar market cap ($9,500 BTC). If small countries start using it as their national currency and organizations like OPEC use it to price their products, you could see >400 billion dollar market cap (>$19,000 BTC). I personally think it will continue to grow until it settles in somewhere around an 80 billion dollar market cap for a while. My $0.02.
I posted this about a year ago, but I think it is still relevant. yeah, if we will overcome (or not) the current fight re blocksize. |
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It is my goal to get 100 bitcoins then hodl for between 3-5-10 years. I just hope bitcoin stays low enough for a couple of years so I can get as many as I cam. Interesting read, but personally I think someone would need more. I guess it depends how long someone is willing to wait for bitcoin to hit the mainstream (if that happens). 100 btc right now is equal to a midrange car. If i was to make a choice, i would definitely buy btc instead of a car, unless you absolutely need a new one. I see people all around driving BMW and Mercedez knowing for a fact that they don't have much money. In my opinion, it is a foolish errand, but most people would disagree. |
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If your not just day trading and are in bitcoin for long term buying at any price under $300 before the halving is a good move imo.
yes, good point. lot of friends of mine actually asking me "when is good time to buy" and I'm simply replaying..in long-term doesn't matter, if you will buy now at 250 or 220 or 270. Buy, HODL, thanks me later. you should tell them: buy a few coins...if it is successful, then it would be a lot of $$ or euros, and if not, then not much harm done. I say, anyone with any interest should get a couple of bitcoins just in case, but i cannot convince even my family members to do that. No matter...we shall prevail! |
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What do you think? I think I might be close. I'm guessing $10,000 per bitcoin by then.
The short answer: yes, You will be very rich and a millionaire with 100 Bitcoins in year 2020. In most of US, $1 mil is not a level where you can call yourself rich due to high prices of RE and low bond yields. Right now, "rich" is probably at or above $5 mil (levels allowing for ~$200 thou/year income with low risk) |
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Mining could be done as if you are buying bitcoin slowly (after the initial machine purchase).
Essentially (after initial expenses), you will be buying bitcoin cheaply: using SP20 at low power settings-mining at 1.2Th (~640w) will result in ~0.36 BTC/mo with electricity cost of ~$50 (at $0.1/kw), so you are basically paying $139/mined BTC for now. Just don't sell mined bitcoin and use cash instead to pay the electricity bill.
The final numbers/btc will be higher because you will be able to sell SP20 or S5 only for some % of the initial price. In ~6-7 mo you are likely to mine ~2 BTC, which is a lot IF bitcoin will be very successful as ONLY max 10mil people out of 7bil earthlings will ever have two bitcoins (it reality it is even smaller number due to unequal distribution).
In conclusion: a ~$400-450 initial outlay and mining effort for 6-7 mo might result in you being among top 0.15% or earthlings as far as their bitcoin richness is concerned. It might be something valuable if bitcoin succeeds, and if not, not much harm done as your outlay is relatively small.
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