YES.
Bitcoin went from 1$ to 1000$ in 5 years.
It will go from 1000$ to 1000000$ in the next 5 years because of the universal law of speculative extrapolation.
100 BTC by 2020 will make you filthy rich. The problem with those kinds of riches is that most people think they don't deserve such wealth so they will make every mistake possible to remain poor.
nice prediction  let's start sell your gold, crypto stock, forex stock and all of your money to buy bitcoin  The universal law of speculative extrapolation, LOL. My idea that bitcoin can reach $1000 to $10,000 in 2021 is not based on the idea that bitcoin will do what it did in the past (i.e. have speculative bubbles). It's based on the combination of the daily mining reward halving a few times and the (proven) black market economy and remittance activity continuing their rapid growth. Supply diminishes while demand goes up. Squeezed from both sides. It's a pincer movement. If bitcoin can go sideways at 250 with 3600 coins produced per day, then it can go sideways at $1000 with 900 coins produced per day. And if bitcoin violently rejects sub 210 prices today, whereas it violently rejected sub $70 prices after April 2013, that indicates that bitcoin's non-speculative economy is rapidly growing. The number of listings and number of unique sellers on the dark net markets has massively increased. I keep an eye on these things. So for me, $1000 is a conservative guess for 2021. It assumes that we just go sideways and everything else remains the same. $10,000 is possible if everything goes "well" (bitcoin's non-speculative economy grows 10x over the next 6 years and the dollar loses strength). The optimistic scenario makes your 100 BTC holder a millionaire. Of course, IF a bubble situation happens amidst the fundamental decrease in supply and the growth of non-speculative use, then the price can overshoot $1,000 significantly. But that's not what I'm counting on. The stars-aligning scenario is where everything goes well for bitcoin (establishing a fair value of $10,000) AND the price overshoots. Then you could be looking at a short-term value of ... well, you can think about it. I don't think that buying from greeks contributed a major proportion of the current increase, anyway. I don't like to extrapolate so much from a mere 20% pop, but current situation is quite interesting from many angles. One-what does it mean in a current society to "have" money if such money durability and utility depends on some arcane negotiating tactics of a government that is not even in control of a currency, like in Greece. Perhaps, we will have some kind of crystallization of this thought throughout at least a part of "opinion leaders" and we will see many more voices re bitcoin utility. Things can go on from there. |
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+2.01 to +2.25 please thanks I can never guess right when it zig zags like last time  |
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Bitcoin is not a salvation for greeks at the moment, but it might be different in the future.
As far as greeks are concerned, just imagine how terrible would you feel if the money you had in the bank is suddenly unavailable to you, as it is to greeks.
euro 60/day from tuesday sounds more like an allowance than anything else. Greeks rights are certainly trampled (hopefully, only for a short while).
I think that both parties in the negotiation behaved inappropriately, and that's a tragedy.
Short term-no or marginal effect on btc.
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Hah ! Just my luck. A second SP20 I have has started to give me grief. Will troubleshoot tomorrow. I need some new mining gear. Badly   This is exactly how one of my SP20's is now. I am still able to get about 1th from the unit without too much trouble though. Did you try to reduce power to all chips, reduce fan and see if fourth loop revitalizes itself. It did happen to me upon similar situation. My settings: 0.642 starting voltage 0.647 maximum Power: 165W per loop (sometimes adjust one or two loops down a little if it/they overheat(s) Fan:10-20 produces ~1230GH at ~680W (at the wall) |
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many people had a similar problem with some, but probably not all of S5 (opentoe and HolgerDansk were among the first) and aarons6 reproduced the phenomenon. From all these cases I assume that Bitmain is fully aware of this, but keeps mum and deals with each case by itself. I escaped the burnout, but miner was overheating. Your case seems to be the most severe and dangerous, but you can see from the thread below that S5 in jtoomim facility also burned down during intermittent internet situation. thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=902305.msg11185972#msg11185972 |
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Also, mostly because I can, I just rolled all nine sticks up to around 665mV and 225MHz (12.375GH) for about 111GH total (1.036 AM Blade backplanes) and since it's fairly monolithic at this point I'm gonna take it home and run it in the AC until Monday morning. I've also got a bit better fan on it (than the one stolen out of an old AM Cube).
And may I say, when cgminer fires up and enumerates all them sticks in order, one at a time, and then BAM starts mining on all of them simultaneously, the lights are oh so pretty. Makes me wish I had a longer hub so I could run all 11 functional sticks together and get slightly more sex appeal out of it. In any case it's really cool to know that I'm the only guy in the world that's actually seen what I'm looking at right now. Another month or six weeks and some of y'all can have the same experience but right now it's MINE ALL MINE and I'm gonna relish it.
Anyway, it's running on the Pi (Minera 5 or something) and the pools are all set up so it should auto-start and default to the 1BURGER if the Pi trips out and restarts.
Additionally, it's past Friday. We've heard from the overdue-invoice guys that "the check is in the mail" but I haven't seen it yet. This means I need to investigate the path of short-term loans to field the rest of the chip order that I wanted to have paid for TWO WEEKS AGO. Looks like right now I am 10BTC short. Anyone interested in helping meet that need on a one- to two-week payback period, PM and we can get this taken care of.
Quote in bold: Ain't it the coolest thing in anything creative, be it science or engineering? A: yes, it is. Edit: as per PM, sent two BTC from coinbase as well. https://blockchain.info/tx/c37be6455f0a448f8a39667e8e62288bd558165d630c0b2b94dfa17d4c1974c6https://blockchain.info/address/1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr |
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You all talk here about paper gold... Like it is real gold, while it is not.
maybe it isn't, but it could be exchanged to $$/euro, while physical gold/silver cannot be easily and directly exchanged for goods (in person). I meant that you cannot go to a store and give them a gold coin as a payment, can you? This video is instructive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJm3cRRvPoMConclusion: populace has no clue what to do with physical silver (and gold by extension). |
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I apologize for having to bring a little realism to this thread but..
No. Bitcoin will do POORLY in a crisis. Remember even gold collapsed 25% in the 2008 crash. The last thing on people's minds in a crisis is adopting some obscure speculative asset.
25% is less than >~50% by which the stock markets declined, but re bitcoin-I have no idea, although it is up now. I am pro bitcoin and wants to see more people using it. Bitcoin will become extremely popular but I cannot see Bitcoin becoming a reserve currency. Central banks and governments would rather buy gold than bitcoin.
Will it take a crisis to bring people to recognise bitcoin? We don't need a crisis to succeed, but a crisis would accelerate the growth of Bitcoin.
Central banks are notoriously bad at timing their buys and sells of gold. Remember Bank of England selling ALL of their gold at $250-290. Nice timing! |
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maybe the first number represents all addresses, including those with zero balance, while bitinfocharts only include those with a non-zero balance? |
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Maybe 957 addresses contain 50% of all coins.
Addresses =/= people tho.
No, top 957 addresses contain ~38% coins. I also think that at least some of those are exchanges and other corps. use the sum of pages 1-10 (until 957). http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100?page=1 |
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I honestly doubt how that information is legit, and i'm confident that bitcoins are much more spread out across the users.
But even if this was to be true, i doubt they are arranging price manipulation of sorts.
cheers
He is a finance guy first and foremost. Now, he comes in as a CEO of a bitcoin company and basically says that he doesn't like the fact that bitcoin is concentrated. I assume that his numbers are not accurate, and if it is so, typically it does not bode well for someone's credibility if your reference point is wrong. If, on the other hand, his numbers are accurate, then two questions: 1. Where did he get the numbers? 2. What he is planning to do about it as he portrayed the uneven distribution as a major weakness of bitcoin which is preventing its wider use. |
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Hey CG, Wassssuuupppp!
You wouldn't, per chance, know who AM sourced those heatsinks from?
If one were to TIG the sinks together and TIG a cap/tank on each end with an appropriately sized piece of AL square tube stock down the center. . . .
Will post pics when finished.
Any word/rumors on FriedCat's whereabouts?
Sorry, I don't have any knowledge of where AM was sourcing the heatsinks and haven't heard from Friedcat since last year. I imagine if you weld 4 heatsinks together, you could have a pretty solid short range potato cannon, which should hold you over while sidehack works on the boards. Well the 4th of July is on the horizon. hhhhmmmmmm. A liquid cooled potato cannon. Interesting concept. Now if I can just get DARPA funding . . . . OR sell this idea to 'Big Head' Bighetti of Hooli ("silicon valley") |
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For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*. Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here? You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room. It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky. But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking. It's a fantasy.
Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now. So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold? Maybe. How many years did it take gold to get the the point where it was 0.5% of all wealth? To build all of its deep, deep cultural capital in both the West and the East? It took some decades for the dollar to be a global currency used by all the world. Why bitcoin wouldn't be able to go faster than the dollar when we know all the advantages of bitcoin. Bitcoin is made to be the currency of the world. The bitcoin network can handle 2 transactions per second. It couldn't function as the currency of Jamaica. did you see google fiber (1gbit/sec) in then top-notch 28K modem of just 20 years ago? things change (X40000 in example above). |
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For ten or twenty million bitcoins to become worth hundreds of thousands of dollars each, trillions of dollars would have to go *poof*. Which means the world economy would have to go *poof*.
Does this make sense to anybody here? You don't go from a few billion to trillions like walking across the room. It's more like having a hurricane blow the roof off and getting sucked up into the sky. But people are talking about it as if it were a routine matter that fits into present thinking. It's a fantasy.
Nothing has to go poof for bitcoin to get to $1 trillion (10^12) as all wealth was ~223 trillion is 2012 and probably at least 30% higher now. So, the question is: to get to $1 tril (or ~$50k/btc) can bitcoin gather 0.5% of all wealth or 15% of wealth currently in gold? Maybe. |
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i see interested parties at some point raising the issue initially under the guise of "lost coins", which is a somewhat equivalent of "wear and tear".
apparently, those 'lost' coins are a significant % of the total already.
How would we ever know what was lost or what was simply dormant? I agree it's a possibility but it would be the start of a slippery slope that would have most sprinting for the exit. If you can't depend on the core principles then you're not gonna stick around for other meddlings. It'll be fascinating to see what the future power struggles will consist of. It could be horrifically messy or settle down for good. Not only is it the world's most powerful computing experiment, it might also become the world's largest social experiment in consensus or fatal lack thereof. I basically agree with your interpretation. Looking at how 'easy' it was to force through a major change re the size of a block in a very short timeframe, I don't see that 21 mil will also escape a challenge at some time and we shall see what happens then (consensus or a fatal lack thereof). In fact, before such challenge we would never know how solid the consensus is/will be. |
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...assuming that there will be a lot of usage and ONLY 21 mil bitcoins
However, if 1mb block limit can be overturned so easily, who is to say that 21 mil limit is untouchable if miners will decide otherwise?
The block limit was a temporary measure implemented a long time ago. 21 mil is one of the very cornerstones of the whole thing. Apart from a few special cases, most agree that something has to be done about transaction limits. I haven't heard a squeak about raising the total number of coins. If the subject ever was raised semi seriously I assume it'll be a long way down the line and even more controversial than it would be now. i see interested parties at some point raising the issue initially under the guise of "lost coins", which is a somewhat equivalent of "wear and tear". apparently, those 'lost' coins are a significant % of the total already. |
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And 21 million divided by 100 is 210,000 which is a lot less than 12 million (millionaires in the world today) BTC100 is looking like a pretty exclusive club to me.
there are many more millionaires than 12 mil. According to recent numbers there are: ~2700 people worth >500mil ~29300 people worth >100mil ~84500 people worth >50mil ~928000 people worth 10-50 mil ~1.92mil worth 5-10mil total millionaires at least 29 mil http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealthas far as bitcoin is concerned, according to Rpietila numbers, there are ~85000 people with 10-100 BTC https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.0IF all wealth will transfer to btc (A very big IF, which I don't subscribe to), then 10-100 BTC will =~$50 mil, making BTC= $0.5-5 mil or 0.5-5c/satoshi Is is possible-maybe. What is the chance? Unknowable. |
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Assuming it's still alive by then, 2024-2025 will be the most interesting phase to witness.
By that point 90% of coins will be mined and annual inflation will be below 2%. If there is sustained and increasing demand the price can only go one way.
People will look back and gape at a time when millions of new coins were arriving every year.
Very true, in 2025 everyone will wish they had a time machine to go back to now so they could own at least 1 bitcoin. What's crazy that time period is only 9 years away, and there will be 3 halvings in that period, 2016, 2020, and 2024. The reward will only be around 3 bitcoin per block. It will be interesting to watch this unfold over the next decade. ...assuming that there will be a lot of usage and ONLY 21 mil bitcoins However, if 1mb block limit can be overturned so easily, who is to say that 21 mil limit is untouchable if miners will decide otherwise? |
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It should be interesting to see how bitcoin performs during a financial crash. People are optimistic that people will run from the S&P and the USD into bitcoin. I think bitcoin will end up getting smashed along with tech stocks.
Everything except short end of the sovereign bonds will get smashed going into the October global contagion. After that, bonds will collapse and all private assets will rocket up, including gold, BTC, and US stocks. The lows for gold and BTC in this coming final hooray for sovereign bonds are going to be severe. The stock market bubbles will pop but it sounds silly to say that it will definitely be in October and not before and not after. The market always does the exact opposite of what i expect, or at least it takes inordinate amount of time for market to match my 'expectations', which pretty much mostly precludes me from getting much of cap gains in bearish positions (longs are OK for now, except btc). example 1- thought RE will go down in 2006, but it lingered until 2008 example 2- though that we will never go above Sp500 1576 and make a triple top-but we are at >2100 example 3- bitcoin (thought that $350 was THE bottom) Re SP500-Hussman was always wrong in the last 3 years, but so was Roger Babson in 1928-1929. Hussman: http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150615.htmBlodget on Hussman and Babson: http://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-coming-2015-6 |
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