Pretty dusty in here, where are all of you ?

Checked some YouTube numbers again after some weeks and here are the Top10 gainers since March 28th when I last checked:



Malta really gets a lot of interest and they have cemented their position as the top favourite in the betting markets as well. France is now second favourite with odds around 6, despite them having really few views on YT and only +24% change. I could imagine that lots of (betting) people fancy them to get heaps of points from jury votes; in televotes I don't see France being super strong, but not sure.

Placed my first two bets:

Finland to win @40 (more for trading than actually thinking they can win it in the end)
Cyprus to finish Top10 @2.8 (really think this song will work very well in ESC)

New season has started, so some good odds to be found again (hopefully ).

Tianjin - Shanghai SIPG -> SIPG -2.25 @1.8x 8/10

Tianjin basically lost all their all players, they have always been in financial trouble and the global crisis didn't help with that matter. They have a super weak squad, only two very mediocre import players and are more or less a lock to relegate this season. SIPG as usual has a strong squad with those very good import players for Super League standards (Oscar, Arnautovic etc.). This should be an easy win for SIPG and -2.25 looks easily beatable. H2H from the last matches also looks good:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/dYbZ6Vus/#h2h/overall

Source: https://twitter.com/XAYA_tech/status/1382637796125474817

CHI was listed on CoinEx with an USDT pair today: https://www.coinex.com/exchange/chi-usdt

See the official announcement: https://announcement.coinex.com/hc/en-us/articles/360059879231-CHI-Launched-Deposit-Trade-CHI-and-Hold-CET-to-Share-12-000-USD-Worth-of-CHI

CoinEx will airdrop a total of 40,000 CHI in 3 different events:

Ja. Am Ende = Kalenderjahr. Eventuell empfiehlt sich eine Software á la cointracking, wenn du sehr viele Trades machst.


Theoretisch schon. Aber Ziel kann es ja nicht sein, Teile des Portfolios zu verkaufen, nur um die Steuerschuld zu begleichen - oder halt so zu denken, dass solange mein Portfolio > Steuerschuld ich sicher bin. Zumal ein Portfolio wirklich sehr schnell an Wert verlieren kann, also darauf würde ich mich eher nicht verlassen. Besser ist eher ein anderer Ansatz, siehe unten.


Doch. Es kommt halt immer darauf an, wieviel du tradest und wieviel Gewinn du damit machst. Sagen wir, dein initialer Einsatz ist 1000 Euro, daraus machst du recht schnell 2000 Euro und lässt dir 1000 Euro wieder auszahlen - tradest aber mit den restlichen 1000 Euro Gewinn (erfolgreich) weiter. Dann ist das Jahr zu Ende und du musst z.B. 20k Steuer zahlen; diesen Bescheid kriegst du dann eventuell Mitte des Jahres. Von Anfang des Jahres bis Mitte des Jahres ist dein Portfolio extrem geschrumpft und vielleicht nur noch 10k wert. Selbst wenn du alles verkaufst und auch die 1000 Euro initialen Einsatz noch hast, fehlen dir dann immer noch 9k um die Steuer zu begleichen.

Fürs kommende Jahr hast du zwar dann schön Verluste, aber die 9k musst du trotzdem erstmal zahlen.

Der perfekte Ansatz ist, dass du von jedem erfolgreichen Trade dir 50% zurücklegst (in Fiat, nicht in Krypto^^). 200 Euro Gewinn gemacht, 100 gehen in den Steuerpott, mit 100 Euro kannst du weiter traden. Dann bist du auf der absolut sicheren Seite, hast aber natürlich auch weniger Kapital zum Traden

Das Problem an der Sache ist, dass man a) in einem Bullenmarkt recht gute und vor allem schnelle (Trading-)Gewinne machen kann und b) diese dann einfach zu 100% weiterinvestiert, ohne etwas für die Steuer zurückzulegen. Das Ganze geht auch so lange gut, wie deine Kryptos ihren Wert halten, aber wenn dann der Bärenmarkt kommt mit vielleicht -90%, kann es schnell nach hinten losgehen. Dann hast du eventuell 50k zu versteuern, aber dein Portfolio ist nur noch 20k wert.

War bei vielen für das Steuerjahr 2017 der Fall, wo dann Anfang 2018 alles den Bach runterging. Und die Steuerschuld kann man dann auch nicht mehr drücken, weil die Realisierung der Verluste dann fürs Steuerjahr 2018 zählt.

A lot of red for the last 4 games, here are the overall results:



rdbase, arallmuus and slaman29 with 4 correct picks each, but surprise surprise this is only second best, since there are 3 users with 5 correct picks. Still a good result, since only 11 users had 4 correct ones, but I guess that doesn't make things better for you guys. Wish I could give you fame points at least

So this was supposed to be the last MM ever, but I think there will be more in the future, just not that frequently. Last year we had a MM for the NFL Draft, only ~4 weeks to go until this years edition....

The fact alone that OP is asking for advice on Stake limits and then all those shills just come out writing "Play at Adkinsbet !" in a super pushy way, while not relating to OP's question, is already telling the whole story


OP can just check the trust ratings of accounts like yours and he will already know. And I guess he is smart enough to judge properly

Stay away from Adkinsbet, they are most likely not legit. These two users recommending them is probably bought accounts - there is a whole army of bought Adkinsbet accounts, shilling their site, like for example this account and many more.

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For your initial question I can only add, that I got a limit pretty fast and limits weren't very high from the beginning, but I was only betting on smaller niche markets. For mainstream football markets, you might be able to bet quite a lot, would suprise me, if they had low limits there. Just make a smaller deposit first and see, you can always deposit more

4/8 games played and all went under the total by 2/28/17/32 points, so relatively easy. This was expected somehow and shows the bookies/markets struggle a lot with getting this right. NCAA is just crazy, not only in Basketball. Here are our results so far:



The SB leaderboard shows 11 users with 3 correct picks and three of them come from our thread: buywaytress, slaman29 and igehhh. Now this wouldn't be the good old MM, if there wasn't at least one guy with 4 correct picks until now, but he won't show up in the leaderboard yet I guess. Maybe it's even more than one guy But we will see, keeping my fingers crossed

Belarus will not participate in ESC this year. They submitted a new song, but it wasn't accepted from EBU and they then failed to meet the deadline to re-submit again. So SF1 will now have 16 countries and SF2 17. See here.

I checked the YouTube numbers - more for curiosity than anything else, but it's still interesting. Bigger countries of course get more views generally, but when a tiny country like Malta is closing in on 2mln views, then this says something outside from the betting markets (I doubt the casual ESC fan also does some betting on this )



So Serbia has the most views, which is a bit odd considering they look to have no chance at all to even reach the final. Russia always has a lot of views because of huge population, but they still have way more views than other big countries, if we take the population into account. The songs in SF1 have ~7mln more views than the songs from SF2. Bulgaria - being among the favourites to win the ESC - has the second lowest views from all songs.

And the latest odds:


Source: https://www.orbitxch.com/customer/sport/market/1.175680934?allSports

Three songs with a french title at the top, never seen this before I still like Finlands odds.....

Here are my picks, I like this format, would have loved to see something like this for the football MMs in the past.

Loyola - Oregon State -> 2 + over
Baylor - Villanova -> 1 + over
Arkansas- Oral Roberts -> 1 + under
Houston - Syracuse -> 2 + under
Gonzaga - Creighton -> 1 + over
Michigan - Florida -> 1 + under
Alabama - UCLA -> 1 + under
USC - Oregon -> 2 + over

The tracking is a bit difficult without doing a complete new table, which is probably not worth it for just one MM. So I will just use 1/2/3/4, where 1=home win+over, 2=home win+under, 3=away win+over and 4=away win+under, all according to this.

Screenshot

Public Table

Here are the results for round 2:



No leaderboard for me as well, but if I had to guess, I would think that at least one guy has 12 correct picks. And if not, there are surely gazillion of users with 11 correct picks. But anyway gratz to @buwaytress our NCAA Basketball expert, these TV series can be very educational as well

This isn't as much fun as the football MMs, though I think a bit easier to maybe win something, because of less participants. Lets hope round 3 will be better

Well above 100, at Befair you could surely have gotten close to 200

The Poggio was a bit weird, because of the reasons you mentioned. I still found that MvdP looked super strong when he closed the gap after being badly positioned when the attack happened. Was suprised to see him so far back, because it's not that super unusual for an attack to be launched at that point

Sagan was pretty strong all things considered and Ewan looked fantastic on the Poggio.


This is something I will never understand, guess it's about game theory. Even if someone like WvA goes into the red chasing, he still has a better chance of winning than just zig-zagging and not catching those guys upfront at all.

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Betting-wise it was a small profit thanks to Demare beating Bennett, but I was sweating a bit with Ewan/Pidcock being in the lead group after Poggio

We are at half-time already in this short MM and we have one perfect user so far



I tried to figure the leaderboard out, but to no success. Lots of familiar names at the top of the leaderboard with 5 correct picks, but entebah won't show up there, because no wrong picks so far. The last two games are missing, but I wonder if there are more people with all correct so far. I doubt it, since Oral Roberts and Oregon State won as big underdogs.

Good luck entebah

Hat ganz schön lange gedauert, bis ich diesen Post wiedergefunden habe , auf den ich dir damals schon geantwortet habe. Nun kam allerdings eine wesentlich bessere Antwort, wenn auch auf englisch, aber kannst du ja . Also falls es dich noch interessiert, kannst ja mal reinschauen: Why Decentralized Gaming?

Um NFT's gibt es ja gerade den Mega-Hype, aber vieles davon ist schon ziemlich sinnbefreit mMn, aber so ist das im Hype und ist ja auch nicht nur unbedingt schlecht. Beim Gaming machen die NFT's natürlich generell schon Sinn, ist aber nur die Vorstufe von dem, was da noch kommt. Die Twitter-Screenshots in dem o.a. Artikel sind sehr wahr.

The last time I checked, headwind was forecasted, what will probably take a lot of action out of the race. But in the end this shouldn't matter, since I expect things to play out according to what the betting markets suggest, i.e. the pure sprinters won't have much of a chance (again) and one of Wout van der Poelippe will win. From these three I would rate MvdP the most likely to win, because of his explosiveness. If his odds have any value I don't know, because there is always the possibility of him getting bored and doing stupid things (on the Cipressa) from a tactical point of view. WvA I would rate the worst, because if MvdP/Ala attack he will not be able to follow immediately and there is not much road left normally until the descent starts. Ala looked bad against MvdP in Strade Bianche, but this is a new race and Ala knows how to win here, so he probably has the most value for me at around 10 rn.

So far I have only put a bet on MvdP @4.2 and layed Ewan, Demare, Pidcock, Bennett and Pedersen (he will not start) a bit. Looking at the H2H, I like Demare tb Bennett for 2.5+. Bennett has poor results here and it's not so much about how fast you can sprint in general, but how fast you can sprint after 299km. That is, if Bennett is even able to finish in group 2/3, which I have my doubts about.

I was never a big fan of (betting on) MSR tbh, I am more a fan of races that evolve earlier than just at a little hill at the end of an ultra long day But nevertheless, once we finally hit the Poggio things get exciting and until then one can enjoy the beautiful scenery at least.

Personally, I am keeping my fingers crossed for Mohoric; would be happy for him, if he wins

The MM games are up and I made my picks, no draw strategy ftw

Arkansas - Colgate 1
Baylor - Hartford 1
Chicago - Georgia Tech 2
Clemson - Rutgers 2
Florida - Virginia Tech 2
Houston - Cleveland 1
Illinois - Drexel 1
North Carolina - Wisconsin 1
Ohio State - Oral Roberts 2
Oklahoma State - Liberty 1
Purdue - North Texas 2
San Diego - Syracuse 2
Tennessee - Oregon State 1
Texas Tech - Utah State 1
Villanova - Winthrop 2
West Virginia - Morehead 1

I have no idea about NCAAB unfortunately, but I guess I am not alone and sometimes this is not the worst thing for these kind of competitions.

Screenshot

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I will track these 3 upcoming MMs in a spreadsheet again, but will probably not be super fast with the live/result tracking: NCAAB MM

Yep, even the Eurovision YT channel has added nearly all official videos now, just Italy is missing apart from those two.
There are some entries with loads of clicks already: SRB 3.9mln, Croatia 2mln, even Moldova has nearly 1mln already - all more than the odds favourites. But it's just a very small indicator

I am a bit disappointed with the swedish entry, although it's probably the right choice, if you want to win the ESC. I was keeping my fingers crossed for Clara Klingenström, for me the this was the best song in Melodifestivalen.

Not convinced by AZE/GEO as well. Their odds are 55/350+ respectively, so won't make a lot of noise.
Switzerland is only 3.7 now, followed by Bulgaria with around 8. Then France, Italy, Sweden come next all around 11.

Roglic just wants to win every stage/race there is I think. He is no young gun anymore and there is only so much time left for him to fill his palmares up. You could see it in stage 7, where he took the win away from Mäder in the last meters with basically no need. This isn't liked by the Peloton as we know and lots of riders were congratulating Schachmann very joyful - looked like everyone was happy that Roglic didn't win the GC.


Source: https://twitter.com/friebos/status/1370756819308675082

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This scene was super "funny" to watch, because Roglic was just following the Quickstep guy, while you could clearly see, that he won't make the bend Guess Roglic was somewhere else with his mind, in pain, mad etc. But nothing happened there fortunately, just some more time lost.

Paris-Nice finished some moments ago and Roglic blew a lead again and lost 3:08 minutes in the last stage, which wasn't a very hard stage for his standards. But tbf he had a crash earlier in the stage. In the end it was Schachmann capitalizing and winning this race back to back. His odds to win the GC were around 25 before the final stage and I would have never placed a bet on that, but thats cycling


Source: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/paris-nice/2021/gc

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In Tirreno-Adriatico there are 2 stages left; a sprinters stage tomorrow and then the usual ITT in San Benedetto del Tronto. Pogacar will win this race, if he doesn't crash, he has 1:15 on WvA and 3:00 on Landa. MvdP had one of his moments today again and won with a long solo. All stages in this race were won by the big guys. When Pogacar won yesterdays mountain stage, it was the first time EVER that neither of WvA/Ala/MvdP won, when they all were at the start. It wasn't that many races until now, but still shows how dominant these three are. Kind of boring if you ask me, but well deserved, because this doesn't come easy.

Next weekend is MSR then