Sounds more like a banking 'cashless society' than a decentralised currency.  If that's the case then they're throwing the baby out with the bathwater and it wouldn't then phase me in the slightest.

I was hoping we'd reach consensus on the blockchain change before halving, but that's starting to look less and less likely.

We also need some good use cases to really get more confidence in the price generally going north.

This style of thinking makes more sense to me.  I won't bother making unqualified guesses at the actual number, but I do agree that we may see a peak at some level that isn't yet sustainable, where in later years it becomes a base to work from for an idea of what it is doing.

We can see markets in many sectors right now that are peaking unreasonably high then coming down 40%, 50% and more.  Oil right now for example has lost very roughly 80% of its peak value, though I'm sure when the stars align it'll be back up there.

I really hope it does not hit $1000 in the first quarter, as it would make it look more like a HYIP than a reliable investment for Grandma to have confidence in.  Something like an average of $2-3 daily gain would get us there by year end, but with a lot more market respect to new adopters.

Also, all this talk about the halving is making me start to wonder if it may actually become a non event.

Gold I wouldn't call an investment, as it's purchasing power remains largely the same (ignoring typical swings).  What you could buy for an ounce of gold a century ago is pretty much what you can buy with it now.  The FIAT by which it is measured has seriously taken a dive however.

If you're feeling a little too exposed in BTC then Gold could be a decent option (but keep it yourself, and not in a bank).  Just don't expect any stellar gains with it, but more of a safety storage of your assets.

After the stock crash (whenever that will be), there will be some good pickings to be had, but if you wanted to buy now then it tends to be unethical investments that weather a storm better.

If the internet should go down, then society will be in a tailspin and BTC will be the least of your worries.

The Wisdom of Crowds won't work in this scenario, as it's missing a couple of elements:


Criteria                   Description

Diversity of opinion   Each person should have private information even if it's just an eccentric interpretation of the known                       facts.

Independence           People's opinions aren't determined by the opinions of those around them.

Decentralization           People are able to specialize and draw on local knowledge.

Aggregation           Some mechanism exists for turning private judgments into a collective decision.

If you think of "Who wants to be a millionaire", there's good reason that the audience get such a spectacularly high strike rate.  They don't have time to confer or see what other peoples opinions are.

I can see a scenario where it dips a little under $400, if only for a minute or two, where traders get scalped for their stop losses in that area before a recovery and resuming the climb.

I'm a HODLer rather than a trader, so won't be taking any action no matter what, and will just watch with interest.

Doing some highly specialised Technical Analysis (I drew a single line through some chart or other), and it suggested that a $350 was within the realms of possibility for a dip, with an $800 possibility or so 2016 year end.

I can imagine $500 at one of the peaks of the zig-zig movements that markets in general do, in the next several months, but should the day come when a 'real' $1000 comes (as opposed to the MtGox type distortion), that will be a glorious day and achievement.

Whilst I cannot predict the future, my own stance is to collect BTC and also use for transactions where available, just for the spirit of the idea.

I do not rely on it for income (for now until I see a mega success story about the whole concept in the future, though it has already saved my ass a couple of times when I was in a weaker FIAT position and needed to convert one asset to save another ), but would very much like to see a day where it out performs any other investment or income stream that I'm involved with.  That would fill me with so much "told you so" I'd be punching the air.

On the one hand, most people need FIAT to pay for Christmas.  On the other, any self respecting pro-Bitcoin user would lose that problem of "what do you buy for someone for Christmas at the last minute?" and send them some mBTC as an investment, even if it's just a few dollars.  You could solve your issue of buying presents and promote the concept at the same time (6 levels of separation and all that).  My experience is that the way for people to get interested immediately, is give them some for free, then they start reading about it and get enthusiastic.  Just talking about it doesn't seem to do anything unless you're preaching to the converted.

Earlier in the year I took part in a poll on this forum that was asking "what do you think the price will be at year end?".  I answered $400-500.  I'm still of the same opinion.

Looking at that often used chart showing the depreciation of the USD over many decades, I sometimes wonder if we'll see the reverse of that for BTC.  I'll be long gone before that would occur if that were the timeline to consider.

Personally I don't see domination, but more something like Linux adoption (excluding Android which skews the statistics hugely).

Remember that USA is about 5% of the world population, so I wouldn't expect holidays in one country to make too much difference in a global market.  China might be a different story as they seem to be the main players.

I can easily see 10% gains in a year (if you smooth out the highs and lows).  BTC'ers seem to be tolerant of higher risk than people for example, looking provide a reliable income from their life long savings put into BlueChips or something in their later years, than young guns who can afford a few mistakes when they are in their peak learning years.

Is internet good or bad?  What about smartphones - good or bad?

Bitcoin?

Btw, for the conspiracy theories, which sometimes later prove to be conspiracy fact, I'm with Hyena, though I dislike the word conspiracy as it's not really the appropriate word.

I think it might come down and momentarily touch $250 in November (maybe for a couple of hours to a day), then have a decent recovery December.

I'm torn in two directions with the price behaviour.  I've nailed my colours to the mast and said that I'd like to see slow and steady average gains.  Even an average of $2 a day would be a spectacular investment compared to most out there, but I'd like to believe it was because BTC passed the acid test as a valuable tool, and not primarily because of speculation causing rapid and extreme changes.

On the other hand, I can't help feeling good when I wake up and see that it's made a good gain overnight, even though it's probably against it's better future for wanting it to be taken seriously.

I look at USD comparison as a thermometer of popularity/confidence, and nothing to do with using BTC to make USD gains.  If I did feel the market was toppy I'd prefer to move into a precious metal while it cooled down, then jump back in and hopefully buy more BTC with the difference.  I've never been a speculative BTC trader before, but depending on what personality the market develops in coming years I may do that occasionally.  Or maybe not.

I'm hoping people will give BTC as christmas presents.

The more awareness and invested interest the better.

I put myself in the group of "slow and steady growth".  The reason I say that is because volatility is great for traders, but the average Joe wondering where to park his money needs confidence in some kind of stability on annual returns, and they are also the majority of the population.  $2-3 gains per day would be fantastic imho.

If I had plenty of spare cash (which I don't, just a nominal amount for foreseeable events), then I would still be buying now as I feel safer in BTC despite the price swings.  I don't see any reason to keep a lot of money in a bank these days.

I was mining at 6$, and missed the buy in opportunity when it dropped much lower, and put in the last of my allocated risk investment at about $15 (when personal mining got too difficult).  In that sense it worked out well, though far less than optimal. 

I'm happy to see the recent increase, but feel it will be short lived.  I'm expecting somewhere around $250 before it is ready to make a new climb on some new so far unknow news (currently $270-271 as of time of writing), which could be significant in a month or two (before the next collapse), then a few months later maybe something quite special.

Depending on your personality you could either trade or hodl,  I'm not really a trader, but if I have a good feel about what's going on then I may sell only to buy back and collect more BTC, and not for FIAT reasons.