Hello guys, I must admit I know nothing about Bitcoin  Mu most optimistic thoughts were 360 (in one shot). Okay, trying to learn from scratch. year vwap +3 (!!!)  Escape log trend - log here is only relevant.  |
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Okay, lets analyze situation. This picture ultimately explains current situation.  |
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In a half year frame it hit position where +6 deviation was few days ago  |
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Flip image Btw, it hit 2nd deviation of year vwap  |
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Re read my post. You think you missed train, you have a greed to buy more. You have a fear to loose some btc. You have a greed and fear and you say don't have emotions now which will drive decisions?
If you lie to yourself about yourself, stay away from trading.
You ask probably where to buy back. I give you more - I tell how to control yourself. What you think now about future of price is illusion powered by greed and fear. Go rest until they gone.
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I'm 100% fiat. What's next masterluc?
When you finished great or (especially) bad trade you should go rest/beer/friends/whores/family. Anything but not trade. Stay away from trade. When emotions will calm, start to think what next. |
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What's the risk of being left behind? There are price points during the late 2013 rise that were never revisited (until well after the ATH that is.)
You could make risk being behind much smaller if you sell above some list of standard deviations. The risk being rekt is much higher when you buy above deviations. At parabolic rise you should enter in corrections, not in trending. Better do not enter anyway in long during dramatic price rise - you should be already in long. Price drops - buy. Price rises - sell. But you should know entrance points. |
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If it breaks out again I will buy back.
Parabolic uptrend is not designed to buy in but sell into. |
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Last portion of BTC unloaded =) out of ammo =)
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Great price to sell?
Yeah in short term, above all existing positive standard deviations ) |
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resistance. bfx margincalled. probably top.  |
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Luc, what do think the chances are of continuing divergence with gold, where BTC- on it's way up- passes gold on it's way down?
Will be surprised much. Picture is "dangerously bullish". Dangerously as dump threat and dangerously as rocket moon threat at same time. Weekly is bullish, very bullish. But divergence with gold and eur and convergence with LTCUSD makes me skeptic. Litecoin rises before big dump. Add new divergence with china here and I'd say "fuck it". |
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Hourly noticable divergence with china   |
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Сorrelation is obvious, but underruns 1-2 weeks as I noticed. I.e. gold starts a noticeable drop/rise and bitcoin does the same after 1-2 weeks.
The correlation is stronger if there is eurusd does the same. It means dollar value rises (bitcoin's falling correspondendtly).
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Need to say that china didn't outperformed previous higher high while others did  |
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China seems doesn't give a fuck and has a triangle on hourly so far  |
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Gold on daily draws same shit, but with outrunning 1-2 weeks. Same near horizontal escape trend. Bitcoin just reached top trend line, but gold already collapsed to bottom one.
Who is expirenced may provide pics? I'm tired and went sleep.
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so what do you think comes next masterluc? How far down?
Following this trend imho. However I need to see next couple of days for reaction for last rally. I don't see fuel except volume to escape from this trend now with current daily overbought conditions. Even weekly are close to overbought. If price will escape I'll be much surprised.  |
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