Not easy.
The hardest things are:
Only 17 (later 21) million units;
There are about more than 5 billion people;
You can not distribute it,
The end price is unpredictable
The end price will always remain unpredictable and as much as people keep seeing so much value for it, with a high rate of adoption, the more it keeps getting better. As it is, the need is increasing and we will end up having more investors and what makes it interesting is the cap limit which makes even the little number of satoshis to end up being worth something later on. So, the way is see it is that we have 2,100,000,000,000,000 satoshis to go round. Not only are we limited to 2.1 quadrillion satoshis, but also keep in mind that an unknown but significant number have basically been lost permanently due to lost wallets, keys, etc. That has likely taken out a significant part of the supply, which of course means even higher prices. |
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Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”
Why do cryptos have to displace gold for this to happen? What if some really big investors/institutions (e.g., banks, hedge funds, etc.) get involved and start buying? Tens or hundreds of millions of dollars of direct investment could take us a long way given the limited supply of bitcoins and how much people are hoarding them. |
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One of the things I really like about this is that at least there's some kind of reasonable analysis to back up the prediction, unlike a lot of predictions I see that are just hopeful random numbers thrown around. At the rate bitcoin has been growing, it seems like $25k might happen sooner, but of course it will continue to get harder to grow the larger it is.
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The Bitcoin lost half its value in 2013 because of a panic sell-off.
Actually, it lost a lot more than that. The spike to around $250 earlier in 2013 ended with a very quick crash to around $50 (80% loss). The subsequent spike to around $1100 at the end of 2013 was followed by a long, drawn-out fall to around $150 (~85% loss) over the following year. |
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Which of these two is going to fetch higher prices? What do you guys think?
BCC has failed to get high enough to be called a real contender. Will the new one beat it and get closer to dethroning the king?
I don't know which will be worth more over time, but I don't think either will be worth much (assuming they don't cease to exist, which they might), and they certainly don't look set to challenge BTC. The older bitcoiners generally seem to be against both of them. Without that support, I don't think they're going to go anywhere. Also consider that if either tried to pose a serious challenge to BTC, those that control thousands of bitcoins and thus thousands of bitcoin cash and bitcoin gold could easily crash those markets. |
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It is really hard to say if bitcoin is a bubble or not. What I know is that bitcoin don't offer anything
in return when you invest on it. And bitcoin is don't have any promises that it will perform well to
increase it's worth.
Bitcoin's price is merely from the demand it's getting from people without giving any promises. So is it a bubble?
Fiat currencies are literally worthless by definition so that argument doesn't really hold at all. Bitcoin takes a lot of effort/money to create and carries large risks, all of which are factored into the price. Furthermore, it's the gateway into a whole new class of investment assets, so that adds to the value of Bitcoin as well. And lastly, it has a technology driving it that is far superior to traditional financial instruments. So saying that Bitcoin doesn't offer anything in return is complete nonsense. I think AmXProX's point is that you can't trade bitcoin in for anything, just like you can't trade fiat in for anything (as opposed to a commodity-backed currency in which you can trade in the currency for the commodity). There are indeed things that make bitcoin valuable, but it's not backed by anything, and there's nothing to really determine how much it should be worth. Bitcoin could function just as well at $1000/coin as it can at $6000/coin. In fact, while the hash rate would drop and theoretically increase the potential for someone to mount a 51% attack against it, bitcoin would probably still function at $100, or maybe even $10. |
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My guess is that B2X is not fully priced in yet...actually, maybe not much at all, given how few seem to be sure about what's going to happen. In order to price something in, the market participants need to have enough conviction about the outcome to trade what they believe will happen ahead of time (even if they're wrong). Most people seem very uncertain, very confused, or both. While I'm slowly working to clear up my confusion, I continue to be uncertain about what's going to happen.
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When I will need urgent money but until then I want to accumulate as much as possible.
Same here, I just sold my tokens or bitcoins when I meed money. Sometimes if I don't need money, the other reason I sold them is when the price is interestingly high or when the price go beyond the price I am calculating. I will not regret if the price go beyond that, the good thing is, I don't miss selling them at the good price. I also want to make sure I am getting a good profit out of it. This is an excellent attitude to have. It sounds like you know how to keep greed in check. You will likely continue to profit well. This is something I still need to master.  As for an actual price target, I like the idea of ~$25k to sell a decent chunk of what I have, at least initially (if I do, I might buy back in if it goes significantly lower after that). That would put the market cap in the neighborhood of $450B-$500B, which is similar to the market caps of the largest companies like Apple. |
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Of course, it's impossible to predict exact price, but what are your predictions/wishes/guesses?
Thank you for your answers.
Well, if we're talking about wishes, then I'm going to wish for $100M so that each satoshi is worth $1.  Realistically, hitting $10k seems quite feasible. Heck, if the segwit2x fork goes well (whatever that means), I wouldn't rule out $10k by the end of the year, given how crazy bitcoin can get sometimes. In 2018, I could even seen $15k or $20k+, if things go well and really big investors get on the train. However, even if we do get crazy high like that, I'm sure it's going to be a bumpy road. I wouldn't be surprised if we see $3k or less along the way. |
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Bitcoin isn't in a bubble.I don't understand why most of the people create a thread like this whenever bitcoin passes ATH.This isn't like 2013.Things were different back then.Currently bitcoin price is backed by many companies,people and also widely accepted.A healthy correction is always welcomed. Bubble is when we see more then 50% decline in short period of time but i haven't seen that with bitcoin. If that's how you look at whether or not bitcoin is in a bubble, that's fine. But the definition of a bubble is when people are paying a lot more for something than it's actually worth. The problem is that there's no good way to figure out what a bitcoin is actually (i.e., should be) worth. If you could nail that down, then you could say for sure whether or not we're in a bubble. |
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I think gold or bitcoin both have good potential. But the difference between the two does exist, gold has a real shape while the form of bitcoin is digital or can not be seen.
The characteristic of bitcoin has in common with gold, is just as limited, not produced or controlled by individuals or corporations.
I think someone is more confident with gold, because gold is long there while the existence of new bitcoin is in 2009.
I prefer gold for safe investment because its value is not too volatile while bitcoin investment is risky, its value fluctuate but quickly gain profit.
The fact that gold is a tangible asset makes it much more universally appealing. Technology is certainly the way of the future, but it has its limits. You have to have a computer, electricity, and an internet connection to be able to use bitcoin. Under some circumstances (power outage, natural disaster, etc.), you may be lacking one or more of these, making cryptos useless, at least for a time. |
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The last bubble was in 2013. Bitcoin is not a classic bubble, but still be 'suspicious,' says investing expert William Bernstein https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/24/william-bernstein-bitcoin-is-not-a-classic-bubble.html- William Bernstein is a neurologist who became a best-selling author on investing in the 1990s.
- Bernstein does not believe bitcoin is a classic investing bubble because it doesn't fit all four of the criteria of manias he developed.
- "Unless [you are] an expert on blockchain technology and bitcoin, stay away. Don't invest in things [you] don't understand," Bernstein told CNBC.
Do you think we're in the 5th bubble? Bitcoin isn't in a bubble.I don't understand why most of the people create a thread like this whenever bitcoin passes ATH.This isn't like 2013.Things were different back then.Currently bitcoin price is backed by many companies,people and also widely accepted.A healthy correction is always welcomed.Bubble is when we see more then 50% decline in short period of time but i haven't seen that with bitcoin. What do you mean by this? How is the price of bitcoin being backed by companies? It sounds to me like you're saying that if bitcoin started to tank, there are companies/people who would step in and keep it from crashing hard. While there would of course be some buyers, if it really starts to fall fast, it could go a long way down before it bounces. |
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Will bitcoin overtake gold’s place?
It might be the case investors and adopters will use both gold and bitcoin, revealing either/or debates to be more about blackening bitcoin’s reputation than substantial analysis. Legacy banks usually prefer status quo to radical innovation.
Are you hedging in preference to bitcoin over gold?
Bitcoin has already overtaken gold in terms of pricing and profitability. Bitcoin's volatility and it being decentralize is its major asset. In terms of value, gold has been surpassed long back. But in terms of capital market as well in terms of user network we're yet to travel long. Gold as an commodity has been making it more valuable as it's not widely available. Here with bitcoin the technology generates the supply to the demand. Based on which volatility becomes an issue with gold users while bitcoin users love the volatility. What do you mean by this? Bitcoin's supply is ultimately fixed (as long as the developers/community never decide to increase it, but that's another debate for another time). In fact, while gold is rare and expensive to mine, its supply is less fixed than bitcoin as more gold deposits are continually being discovered. You are so wrong. There are so many gold in the world that everyone can have it more than 1 kilo. But it's not profitably for monopolistic govorments that has power so they lower supply artificially to upper price for it and to have control on it. If you google how much gold has been mined globally, you'll find that it's much less than that. It sounds like it's hard to estimate the exact amount (which isn't surprising, of course), but if you look at the 2011 numbers here: http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/ they estimate that there's only around 24 grams of gold per person on the planet. Even if they're off by a little bit, that's nowhere close to 1 kg. |
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Who even coined the term 'fifth bubble'? There is nothing like first, second... and obviously, fifth bubble. There is only continuous growth.
Bitcoin is game-changing concept new era of the economy - an idea worthy of Nobel Prize - how you can even call it a bubble?
BTC is still undervalued by far, we have 6 billion people in the world and only 21 million of Bitcoins - do you still that $6k per BTC is a 'high price'?
So in 2011 when bitcoin spiked from $0.80 to ~$32.00 and then fell 94% back to $2.00, that wasn't a bubble? Growth has not been continuous at all. There have been several major crashes of more than 70%. It could easily fall below $2k right now and still be behaving in accordance with historical norms. That doesn't mean that it won't continue higher, but it could easily be in bubble territory right now. |
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5 Reasons Why Bitcoin Price is Not Tulip Mania: Nasdaq.com https://cointelegraph.com/news/5-reasons-why-bitcoin-price-is-not-tulip-mania-nasdaqcom1. The Growing Acceptance of Bitcoin as Legal Tender 2. Increasing Merchant Adoption 3. Bitcoin Is Increasingly Acting as a Store of Wealth in Distressed Economies 4. Bitcoin Has Only Just Gone Mainstream 5. Bitcoin’s Supply Is Limited The only thing that can derail this is the scaling issue.
Bitcoin is back up to $5,858. I think that bitcoin has a lot more growth potential. But I think there are other things that could derail it. One is a concerted effort by major governments to ban or regulate it to death. Another is the emergence of a superior coin that could replace it. As things stand right now, most of the crypto I have is in bitcoin for growth purposes. But when trying to move money around, I prefer not to use bitcoin. It takes way too long, and the transaction fees are way too high. I think it's a great investment asset, but I don't think it's a great currency. |
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I think that the bitcoin bubble. Fiat is devalued when the currency is not used in the state's economy. The government is constantly thrown into circulation unsecured money. Question secured than bitcoin? The price for it is growing constantly, but no one is interested in why this is happening. I think it is a trap. I sincerely don't want to I was right, but I don't find a logical explanation for this phenomenon.
While I agree that we may be in bubble territory, I disagree that no one is interested in why the price keeps increasing. There are multiple hypotheses. Personally, I think that some of it is probably coming from an increase in adoption as a currency, but I think that most of it is coming from an increase in adoption as an investment asset. As the price keeps rising, and as it becomes increasingly accessible to potential investors, more people keep buying in, which increases the price. |
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Will bitcoin overtake gold’s place?
It might be the case investors and adopters will use both gold and bitcoin, revealing either/or debates to be more about blackening bitcoin’s reputation than substantial analysis. Legacy banks usually prefer status quo to radical innovation.
Are you hedging in preference to bitcoin over gold?
Bitcoin has already overtaken gold in terms of pricing and profitability. Bitcoin's volatility and it being decentralize is its major asset. In terms of value, gold has been surpassed long back. But in terms of capital market as well in terms of user network we're yet to travel long. Gold as an commodity has been making it more valuable as it's not widely available. Here with bitcoin the technology generates the supply to the demand. Based on which volatility becomes an issue with gold users while bitcoin users love the volatility. What do you mean by this? Bitcoin's supply is ultimately fixed (as long as the developers/community never decide to increase it, but that's another debate for another time). In fact, while gold is rare and expensive to mine, its supply is less fixed than bitcoin as more gold deposits are continually being discovered. |
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I don't think that we should wait for the future to start trading , Because every time we should look towards the perfect timing not the perfect day to start.
Here currently we can see that hardfork has been completed and we need now to start trading blindly .
Here the question is arise that which we should buy and which we should not .
Currently the price is high and I don't think that it will go to dump Because it is stable price looking much ( but may be can go to dump 100-200$ maximum which is not a big amount .
Currently best suggestion to buy the altcoin is bitcoin cash and bitcoin gold both .
Why do you think that bitcoin cash and bitcoin gold are good investments? Everything I've read from veteran bitcoiners says that they immediately dumped/will dump everything they have of both of these because they're basically worthless. Neither was created with the consent/approval of the broader community, and with how similar they are to bitcoin (and inferior in some ways), it sounds like there's virtually no chance that they will ever be competitive with the original bitcoin. |
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What a surprise!!! Not. This was to be expected, and to be honest, I find this to be fitting more in the bad news category. It was nice for once to not have China be part of the market, and now they slowly make a come back, regardless of the form, it's pure shit. The market has shown to be perfectly fine without Chinese exchanges being around, and for that reason, I would have liked them to stay away at least till next year, but it is what it is. I just hope that people for once take distance from that country, because they contribute to nothing but problems due to their paranoid government. I already wonder what they are going to pull once the market reaches another all time high in the coming weeks/months.  I understand what you mean. However, hopefully the market will keep in mind what happened with all of the recent China problems: after a couple of weeks it shrugged them off and kept going. If and when this happens again with China, hopefully it will have little impact on price. And even if it does, it will be another good buying opportunity as the market has already proven that China is no longer an essential participant. |
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I guess only people who are not believing into the future of bitcoins may go for dumping bitcoins for securing altcoins. But in reality no alt can secure our future  There is something to be said for diversification. People certainly have the most confidence in bitcoin right now, but that means that it doesn't have the same explosive growth potential as alt coins (but of course it has less risk). Even some of the other big-name alts have good potential. Some people have even speculated that coins like Ethereum could catch up to bitcoin in price someday. |
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