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I just say "rally" is very weak, still on bearish deviation territory and this is very weak even for bounce.
You should factor in the bid depth on Mt. Gox order book. It hit an all time high today. |
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looks very stable to me, lets see how it ends up by the end of the week
Yes, I hope it stabilizes soon. I can't sleep with all this 24/7 volatility.  |
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We double bottomed around $50. If you didn't buy on the dip or panicked and sold your coins for cheap, then commiserations.
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I don't think the price is being pumped up again. It's just currently returning back to where it should be in the $90-$110 range. $50 was an overshoot to the downside induced by widespread fear and panic. I think we will start to begin to stabilize around $100 starting next week.
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I think sentiment is now pretty balanced between bulls and bears in the $90-$110 range. I was surprised the price dropped to $50 yesterday. Luckily, I took advantage of the panic and bought more bitcoins.
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well, that would have been nice to know a few hours ago - you know, immediately BEFORE I just sent in a new deposit.
Looks like I'll be funding the takedown.
Bastards. How hard would it have been to disable deposits? I mean, really?
The bastards aren't bitfloor. <also some other stuff> Well, the context being that they knew this was happening in advance, and made no effort to stop me from making a deposit anyway, and I wasn't notified anywhere else either. So, yeah, they're bastards for that. As a credit to them now, the deposit page is not linked any more from the site menu, although the page still exists and old links to the page will still allow you to generate a deposit amount as if nothing were wrong... but all that could have been done much earlier in the day. Assuming what they say is true, then I do feel bad that their baby is being killed in front of their eyes, but that doesn't mean I can't be upset that my money is in limbo. I do feel *slightly* better that there's a promised path for return of my deposit, (have to get ACH "verified" first) but I'll believe it when I see it. Everything else you said about the vast global conspiracy nonsense is non-sequitur. I'd be surprised if the closure of Bitcoin24's and Bitfloor's bank accounts within a week of each other was just a coincidence. |
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well, that would have been nice to know a few hours ago - you know, immediately BEFORE I just sent in a new deposit.
Looks like I'll be funding the takedown.
Bastards. How hard would it have been to disable deposits? I mean, really?
Edited |
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Verification queue is at 28,300 as of right now, if anyone is interested.
Lots of people want their fiat out of gox. Most will wait with selling till they can withdraw so their funds aren't locked. No. Most people wanting to get out would have already sold their coins. Why would they risk waiting a week or two to be verified first if they think the price will drop further? And I am one of them. Waiting for my first (this month's first) SEPA withdrawal for one week now. This used to go a lot faster. Anybody experiencing the same?
So you already sold your coins? |
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But as far as what price will be sustainable at that level of growth, I have no idea. Smoothing out the boom and bust of the bitcoin price series suggests an annual growth of approximately 5x, or about 400% APR. I take this as a strong indicator of the relative value of the underlying bitcoin economy. Bubbles are happening in bitcoin because 400% APR is enormous and speculators naturally get way, way ahead of the underlying fundamentals as new people learn about bitcoins and big returns. Back in January, bitcoin was fairly valued at 13.50 even though it advanced during 2012. I think this is sustainable as a base. No, bitcoin was undervalued at $13.50 in January. Like gold was undervalued at $250 and silver undervalued at $5. The price corrected upwards to reflect the real growth in the bitcoin economy and larger userbase and increase adoption. $266 was overvalued no doubt, but now Bitcoin has found it's new equlibrium at $100. $100 is the new $13.50. $100 is the new $20 (in 2011). It will drag on down to $32, doubt we'll ever see $13.50 though. We already hit the bottom 3 days ago at $54.25. If you didn't buy when you had the opportunity then commiserations. Is that like we already hit the peak last week at $200? Yes we hit the peak at $266. I believe the price will remain in a trading range of $80-$150 for the next 1-3 months. The sentiment of the forum seems evenly balanced between bulls and bears. I think we are at equilibruim at $100 and sideways price movement in the short to medium term is likely. After that we'll probably rally past $200 later in the year but slowly. |
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But as far as what price will be sustainable at that level of growth, I have no idea. Smoothing out the boom and bust of the bitcoin price series suggests an annual growth of approximately 5x, or about 400% APR. I take this as a strong indicator of the relative value of the underlying bitcoin economy. Bubbles are happening in bitcoin because 400% APR is enormous and speculators naturally get way, way ahead of the underlying fundamentals as new people learn about bitcoins and big returns. Back in January, bitcoin was fairly valued at 13.50 even though it advanced during 2012. I think this is sustainable as a base. No, bitcoin was undervalued at $13.50 in January. Like gold was undervalued at $250 and silver undervalued at $5. The price corrected upwards to reflect the real growth in the bitcoin economy and larger userbase and increase adoption. $266 was overvalued no doubt, but now Bitcoin has found it's new equlibrium at $100. $100 is the new $13.50. $100 is the new $20 (in 2011). It will drag on down to $32, doubt we'll ever see $13.50 though. We already hit the bottom 3 days ago at $54.25. If you didn't buy when you had the opportunity then commiserations. |
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But as far as what price will be sustainable at that level of growth, I have no idea. Smoothing out the boom and bust of the bitcoin price series suggests an annual growth of approximately 5x, or about 400% APR. I take this as a strong indicator of the relative value of the underlying bitcoin economy. Bubbles are happening in bitcoin because 400% APR is enormous and speculators naturally get way, way ahead of the underlying fundamentals as new people learn about bitcoins and big returns. Back in January, bitcoin was fairly valued at 13.50 even though it advanced during 2012. I think this is sustainable as a base. No, bitcoin was undervalued at $13.50 in January. Like gold was undervalued at $250 and silver undervalued at $5. The price corrected upwards to reflect the real growth in the bitcoin economy and larger userbase and increase adoption. $266 was overvalued no doubt, but now Bitcoin has found it's new equlibrium at $100. $100 is the new $13.50. |
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The gox queue is over 20k, google trends for "bitcoin" has doubled since the peak last week, and the news coverage is growing and much less negative overall than I expected.
This just in: http://www.google.com/trends/explore?hl=en-AU#q=bitcoin&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q The low point's tooltip says 53 (47% drop). That's the biggest drop to date and given the news dynamic I don't see how interest can pick back up. I concur 100% with SlipperySlope, the news has changed dramatically: it no longer invites greed but caution. The Gox verification queue is probably just a myth. Disclaimer: I'm a perennial bear that made small fortune during this bubble and it's subsequent bull trap, so yeah, i'd like the satisfaction that I got out at the right time. Currently the process from signing up, verifying and transferring funds to Mt. Gox takes about 2 weeks. So that huge surge in interest over the last few days has not played a part in the bitcoin market yet. Hell, the smaller surge in early April probably hasn't even bought in yet. And the low point is still higher than at any point before the recent surge. |
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April 12, 2013 12:30 UTC $54.25 mtgoxUSD  |
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I just want to note that it is now 9000btc to get to $90. Before the sell down from $100 it was only 5000-5500 to get to $90.
At this point that makes it even more likely we get there. IMO the only way for the bulls to turn this around is a bunch of market orders to 160. All the big fish which hadn't enough liquidity during the crash will jump at the opportunity once the bids stopped accumulating close to market price. you really do talk a lot of nonsense Now, why would you think that, I am merely expressing my opinion. That is to say once a trend has been established it is very difficult to break it. That is also, that I have, despite my bearish attitude never spoke out against the uptrend after we broke the previous ATH until the bubble popped. In a sense, what I am saying is that the selloff will overshoot too. That is certainly a possibility... Consider this: Current "market valuation" is > 1.2 Billion USD. There is roughly $10M between us, now, and 30 USD/BTC. All it takes is for one thousand people to claim $10K each, or for 10 000 people claim $1000 each, we land < 30 USD /BTC. Even worse, there is but $13M between us, now, and $0.0001/BTC. tl;dr: Better hope Gox doesn't lag out again. There is A LOT of money sitting on exchanges and bank accounts waiting to buy in at a lower price that are not reflected in the bid side of the order book. People who wish to buy lower tend to wait for the price to get close to or at their buy price before they place the order, especially large investors. If I wanted to buy say 10,000 coins @ $70, I would not place the order now because that would create a visible demand which would have the effect of pushing the price up as other investors bid above my wall. The best strategy therefore would be to wait for the price to drop to $70 and buy in smaller increments. Lets say there are 10 people wanting to buy 10,000 coins each @ $70. That alone is $7 million of demand not reflected in the bid side of the orderbook. Also Mt. Gox is only one exhchage (albeit the largest). All the other exchanges combined have millions of dollars in visible demand and don't forget all the off exchange, cash and OTC demand and all the new demand that will be coming in shortly from the recent global media attention. |
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$100 is the new $10
$100 means that 360.000 new dollars need to enter the market every day just to cover the mining revenues, never mind short term speculators cashing out. A typical day of Mtgox trading during Sept-Nov last year moved $500.000, before the media frenzy. That's total volume, including day traders or older depositors who shift back and forth. Let those figures sink in for a while. $360,000 dollars a day is a drop in the ocean in the global scheme of things. Especially considerng the amount of global media attention Bitcoin has just recently. Also you are assuming that all miners will immediately dump their coins on the market. Realistically about half would, so the figure to sustain $100/BTC would be more like $180,000 a day. |
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You don't need to be verified to sell bitcoins on Mt. Gox. I suspect the vast majority of people cashing out have already sold their bitcoins and are just sitting with fiat in Mt. Gox waiting to be verified to withdraw to their bank.
But new investors wanting to get in have yet to buy their bitcoins because you need to be verified first before you can transfer funds to Mt. Gox.
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Hey, just a pleasant reminder for the bears amongst us -
The MtGoX $1000+ verification cue is still growing, even after the "bubble popping."
they claim 95% is new users but it would seem that all btc or fiat leaving the exchange has to be verified so the queue could be people trying to get out as much as people trying to get in True. But people wanting to get out most likely would have sold their bitcoins already and are just sitting with USD in gox waiting to be verified to transfer out. While people wanting to get in have yet to buy since you have to be verified first to transfer money in. |
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Those cards are only available for US residents denominated in USD though. EU people will be able to avail of a BitInstant Paycard in Euro and British people in Pounds. And then you have other markets for a BitInstant Paycard in the future China, Russia, Brazil etc |
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Currently I'm very willing to co-operate with any investigation because this is the only way I can completely prove my innocence. However the non-reponse from Bitcoinica side is indeed worrying. I have gathered some data to estimate the amount that can be recovered from Chen Jianhai:
USD: about $140,000 + $5000 frozen at AurumXchange (under SJ account)
BTC: about 20,000 BTC
When will you return the remaining $140,000 and 5,000BTC you promised to recover from Chen Jianhai? |
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AurumXchange didn't publish any contents from the e-mail address (obviously they didn't know its password), zhou was doing that. And they didn'tBitcoinica LP does not speak for the privacy rights of Zhou Tong, they are his own. If ZT was their concern, they could have easily contacted him privately and learned that his account was compromised before publishing his private information for the world to see.
What private information of Zhou Tong's was published??? |
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