Сейчас один актив растёт, а другой не растёт. И чем второй актив, который не растёт, хуже того актива, который растёт? В моём понимании он ничем не хуже.
Значит есть определённое несовершенство рынка, которое рано или поздно будет исправлено. Строго говоря, только несовершенства рынков и можно торговать. Поэтому я и стараюсь внимательно к ним относиться. Вот ты выложил графики, и меня навело на определённые мысли.
"Несовершенство" рынка ты сможешь заметить только если в пятерочке докторская колбаса будет по 500 р., а в магните по 499 р. и то, если успеешь занять очередь. |
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Ещё сегодня прошла новость, что валюту, в том числе доллары США, перестали принимать через банкоматы 11 из 15 ведущих российских банков. Интересно в чем смысл такого запрета?
Может быть потому, что корреспондентские счета за рубежом заморожены отрицательно согреты. |
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"Стоимость рубля резко упала между 1921 и 1923 годами, достигнув 2 352 941 рубля за доллар в 1923 году, когда Россия пережила революцию, гражданскую войну и основание Советского государства. Он снова резко обесценился между 1992 и 1997 годами, сразу после распада Советского Союза, достигнув 5 562 рублей за доллар в 1997 году."
Я не буду приводить график, думаю ты сам можешь погуглить. Сделай пожалуйста "технический" анализ этого актива.
Судя по цифрам рублик не хило так укрепляется с тех пор) Начиная с 20-х годов за семьдесят лет курс доллара упал в 5 раз. А с 90-х по сей день доллар вообще в пол укатали. Не знаю как технически, но фундаментально рубль прям очень хорошо смотрится с такими показателями)
Скоро во всех телевизорах страны: не дефолт, а отрицательная платежеспособность  |
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I've come across information suggesting that some companies offer the option of receiving salaries in Bitcoin, though I'm unable to recall their names at the moment. If you're interested, you could use a search engine to find these companies. However, it appears that widespread adoption of Bitcoin as a salary payment method is hindered by its volatility and legal considerations. The feasibility of paying salaries in Bitcoin is heavily influenced by a country's stance on cryptocurrency; if a country does not permit the use of Bitcoin, it becomes practically impossible to implement such a payment system. Unless governments begin to accept and integrate Bitcoin as a legitimate payment option, it is unlikely to replace fiat currencies for salaries in the near future.
2023-05-08. Turkish Lira Volatility Jumps, Banks Climb in Pre-Vote Trading. Lira’s one-week implied volatility surges to 7.4% from 8.4% |
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OP, although Bitcoin will continue to gain a wide spread as time goes on, but I have doubts that the government will just wake up any day and allow Bitcoin to become generally accepted as legal tender. Some countries will not legalise Bitcoin, and one reason is because they can't fully regulate it or make it centralized. That's why they (the government) will not want Bitcoin to replace the global financial system.
Also, Michael Sylor is not the only investor with a huge amount invested in Bitcoin; I hope you know that Micro Strategy is just a company and there are other investors in the company, so all the Bitcoin they hold is not just for Sylor. There are also other whales out there.
Good point. But never say never. You know, for example, the U.S. Congress is not very friendly towards Bitcoin. But let's consider the First Amendment: "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances." Well, it's all because the legal firms that cryptocurrency projects and exchanges in the U.S. approach are just regular scammers collecting hundreds of millions of dollars from these ignorant idiots without providing any concrete solution to legalize Bitcoin and establish rules for this market for U.S. citizens. Well, the lawyers of Order 2.625 (whom many of you may laugh at or not take seriously enough) have proposed a practical solution for legalizing Bitcoin in the U.S., citing the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. After all, Order 2.625, as the Decentralized Religious Organization Order 2.625 (DROO 2.625) represented by the North American Diocese (Eparchy) and the plebeians of the order, is nothing but a religious movement. Therefore, according to the Constitution, the U.S. Congress has no right to prohibit the plebeians of the Order from using Bitcoin, as Bitcoin is the ceremonial currency unit of the Order and serves as our religious symbol (similar to the kirpan of the Sikhs) In this sense, Order 2.625 is grateful to all the previous religious movements in the U.S. (especially Protestants and Catholics) for creating this convenient loophole in the fundamental law of the state. Do you still consider creating a religion an irrational strategy? |
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And now that Satoshi never kept all the bitcoin to himself, what more should we expect, how also has this got to do with BlackRock holdings, why is BlackRock a major figure for discussion here, we need more clarity and informations from you on this, please could you take more time to expanciate more things we needed to learn from this?
BlackRock is the world's biggest asset manager, with over $7 trillion in assets. "Asset Allocation with Crypto: Application of Preferences for Positive Skewness" Andrew Ang, Tom Morris, Raffaele Savi Andrew Ang is a managing director at BlackRock in New York, NY. Tom Morris is a managing director at BlackRock in London, UK. Raffaele Savi is a managing director at BlackRock in San Francisco,CA. https://www.pm-research.com/content/iijaltinv/25/4/7 |
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Да нет вроде бы, то что подумал, то и написал. Биткоин сейчас на мой взгляд находится в неопределенности: если цена пойдет выше - это почти гарантированно означает попытку обновить хаи. Если пойдет вниз - тут могут быть варианты. От построения каких-либо фигур на диких месячных таймфреймах, до вообще схлопывания. В чем вряд-ли заинтересованы как инвесторы, так и те кто за ним стоит. Вот он и застрял на этом неком "жизненном пути"
График страшный вы привели конечно. В принципе, могут запустить вертолет и забрать эту ликвидность. Например ситуация кардинально не изменится, если нарисуют скажем сначала 28к, а затем 32к. Ну может быть на неделях нарисуется что-то типа "мегафон", это вроде как разворотная фигура. А "разворот" можно трактовать и в ту, и в другую сторону. Так что опять-таки вероятность 50 на 50
Современные рынки так устроены (краткосрочные и среднесрочные тренды сарбитражированы автоматизированными системами торговли), что на них вероятность движения цены вверх или вниз составляет 50/50 примерно 99.9% времени. |
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Ну да, я уже много раз читал про эту твою теорию о том, что деньги из фонды потекут в недооценённый биткойн). Как говориться, "свежо предание, но верится с трудом". Дело в том, что сейчас биткойн у многих крупных инвесторов и фондов в портфелях находится. И он там лежит на какие-то небольшие проценты. Чисто для диверсификации. Просто чтобы были представлены все рынки в портфеле. И при возникновении траблов, такие вот рисковые активы из этих портфелей первыми будут выбрасываться. Как это было, например, в корона-кризис 2020 года. Когда фонда падала синхронно с битком. А ведь фонда могла перелиться в недооценённый тогда биткойн". Но нет, перелились уже после того, как вместе синхронно упали. И потом синхронно росли без перелива между фондой и битком.
BlackRock "Starting with 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, which is produced with a risk aversion of gamma=1.5, the optimal BTC allocation is a large 84.9%" Ну сегодня это небольшой %, завтра большой. Ты ведь не видишь будущего. Но какова твоя стратегия, на случай если процент биткоина в портфеле крупнейших хедж фондов составит 84.9%? |
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2 биткоина - это психологически верный расчёт. Когда Bitcoin станет стоить 1 млн долларов США, то вам будет огорчительно, если вы накопите только один Bitcoin. Вы будете себя всячески ругать и грызть, за то что у вас была возможность накопить большое количество Биткоинов, а вы накопили только один. И вы будете чувствовать себя миллионером - неудачником ... А если вы к тому времени накопите два Биткоина, то ваша совесть будет спокойна и вы будете себя ощущать гораздо лучше с психологической точки зрения.
Лудоман, накупивший битка в надежде, что тот будет стоить миллион долларов, ничем не отличается от лудомана, который, допустим, накупил риппла и ждёт, когда тот будет стоить 589 баксов). Им осталось дело за малым - подождать, когда биток будет стоить 1 лям, а Риппол - 589 баксов Интересно, что произойдёт раньше - биток по ляму или Риппол по 589? Челы, которые накупили этого добра. лудоманами быть не перестали, просто это долгосочные лудоманы и они из разных сект. Они никак не обосновывают цену технически, просто им так хочется. Ну или производят расчёты в стиле: "На земле людей столько-то, а элитного говна райской птички осталось столько-то, на всех не хватит". Ключевой вопрос: а все ли захотят покупать элитное птичье говно? BlackRock: "Starting with 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, which is produced with a risk aversion of gamma=1.5, the optimal BTC allocation is a large 84.9%" Так устроено инвестирование, ты делаешь ставку на перспективный проект и ждешь. Вопрос лишь в размере этой ставки и степени диверсификации твоего портфеля. Ты хочешь спросить чего ты ждешь? Ответ на этот вопрос очень прост - ты ждешь пока ликвидируют последнего дегенерата, который шортит с кредитным плечом акции (тоесть продает то, чего у него нет), которые ты холдишь. |
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[quote author=Lucius
Interesting point of view. So, are you saying that you have a Ph.D. in Mathematics and fully understand the elliptic cryptography (ECDSA), which serves as the mathematical basis for Bitcoin? Additionally, you have a Ph.D. in Computer Science and can review the Bitcoin source code. Or did you just finish elementary school and simply believe that everything I mentioned just works? So, what is your opinion on Bitcoin based on, knowledge or faith?
I honestly don't care about your fantasies and some made-up cults and 2.65 Order that you mention from the moment you registered on the forum, because it's just a bunch of nonsense that would have been better if it never appeared on the English part of the forum. Also, my education is none of your business, but you remind me of a couple of fanatics who spread the same theories years ago, and I wouldn't be surprised if you were someone's alt account. You can continue your discussions with the member @Ucy who is known for his crazy ideas, and considering that he supposedly talks to God every day, he might be able to convert you to not being an atheist anymore  I simply asked if you have enough qualifications and level of education for your statements about Bitcoin to be based on knowledge rather than belief grounded in forum messages or other pseudo-scientific readings. |
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"Starting with 60-40 equity-bond portfolio, which is produced with a risk aversion of gamma=1.5, the optimal BTC allocation is a large 84.9%"
My calculations show that the optimal bet in Bitcoin is still an absolute value of 2.625 Bitcoin, as it allows for sufficient decentralization of the supply among approximately eight million holders (Top 0.1%). After all, the value of Bitcoin as an asset lies precisely in the decentralization of its supply. A simple thought experiment can show that if Satoshi had kept all 21 million Bitcoins to himself and never shared this idea with anyone, the value of Bitcoin would be zero.
discuss
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До скама доллара очень далеко.
Сейчас курс доллара - в районе 90 рублей за 1 доллар США, однако есть ощущение, что Центральному Банку не просто удерживать его на таком уровне, он предпринимает огромные усилия, чтобы курс не скатился до уровня 100 рублей за 1 доллар США.
Так промелькнула информация, что 21 июля 2023 года Центральный Банк России дополнительно продал китайские юани из своих резервов на 288 млрд рублей. Юани продают, потому что доллары США, евро, швейцарские франки и фунты стерлингов были заморожены в рамках введения мировых экономических санкций. А вот юани есть возможность продавать.
И параллельно подняли учётную ставку до 8.5%.
То есть одновременно задействованы два финансовых инструмента - сжигание резервов и повышение ставки.
То есть в борьбе с инфляцией и попыткой удержать курс рубля по отношению к доллару, одновременно жертвуют финансовой стабильностью и поддержкой промышленного производства и сельского хозяйства в виде дешёвых кредитов.
"Стоимость рубля резко упала между 1921 и 1923 годами, достигнув 2 352 941 рубля за доллар в 1923 году, когда Россия пережила революцию, гражданскую войну и основание Советского государства. Он снова резко обесценился между 1992 и 1997 годами, сразу после распада Советского Союза, достигнув 5 562 рублей за доллар в 1997 году." Я не буду приводить график, думаю ты сам можешь погуглить. Сделай пожалуйста "технический" анализ этого актива. |
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Without his self interest due to his eheavy bags of investment, I think Saylor can be categorized as Apostle since he is clewrly advocating the use of Bitcoin on his social media with lots of follower. But we knew that this kind of act has an expiration once he already sold his bags.
A temporary apostle like Judas can be the best description for him. Don't get carried away on his sweet words because he is a businessman and not a philanthropist that will donate his company money on Bitcoin liquidity forever.
In the Gospels, there are a few instances where Jesus' teachings or actions appeared to depart from traditional Jewish laws or commandments. Here are a couple of examples: Healing on the Sabbath: In Mark 3:1-6, Jesus encounters a man with a withered hand on the Sabbath day. The Pharisees watched Him closely to see if He would heal the man, so they could accuse Him of breaking the Sabbath laws. Despite the prohibition on work on the Sabbath, Jesus goes ahead and heals the man, emphasizing that doing good and showing compassion are more important than rigidly following the letter of the law. Eating with sinners and tax collectors: The Gospels mention several occasions where Jesus dined with tax collectors, considered sinners and outcasts by the religious establishment. One example is found in Mark 2:15-17, where Jesus is criticized for eating with tax collectors and sinners. In response, Jesus states that He came not for the righteous but for sinners, indicating His willingness to associate with those who were traditionally seen as morally impure or unclean. Why do you think that selling Bitcoin (to get money to buy more Bitcoin at a lower price) or using Bitcoin as collateral for borrowing money with leverage to buy more Bitcoin is a "Judas sin"? |
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How he is going about it is all that matters. If his teachings isn't based on Bitcoin principles which is the Foundation of Bitcoin then it's better not taught at all.
Peter and Paul never deviated from the foundational principles of the Gospel which is JESUS CHRIST. Whatever they teach while spreading the gospel must be according to the Word of GOD or the doctrine of JESUS. Whatever is outside of the doctrine or not correctly preached is counted as heresy and the teachers doomed.
But how can we know what Jesus said or even Peter and Paul said? Moreover, the first Gospel appeared centuries after the death of Christ and underwent thousands of redactions. The ideas of Christ have existed for centuries without the Gospels. Thus, the idea is much more significant than the Gospel. "Teaching the truth is like building a house or planting a tree. You first of all set the foundation or sow the seed in the ground then gradually add layers upon layers of bricks or food particles ontop of the foundation or seed until it becomes a house or a tree. When spreading the word, firstly set a foundation in the heart of people then add layers upon layers of words on this foundation until the words become bold and strong enough in their minds to control them to be fruitful or do things right. Don't deviate from the foundation" - Wise words for Bitcoin foundation BTC |
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So we're talking quite literally about a religion-like movement for Bitcoin?
I can totally see where you are coming from and your response was articulated perfectly in terms of conveying the idea...however I do wonder if the same goal could be accomplished except in a way where we aren't creating a cult or a religion out of Bitcoin, rather a modern alternative that is less about faith and ideas, and more about immutable facts.
An organization, or a foundation, which is governed by those with 2.625 Bitcoin and distributes Bitcoin for those who are contributing not only to Bitcoin's adoption and exposure, as well as in its fight against fiat and banks, might be similar but not the same, and less traditional. The organization could incentivize those with less BTC to do good for any of Bitcoin's causes in order to build wealth sooner, communities could unite, bounties could be given...it mightn't be too bad of an idea to pursue in this way.
I might even explore the idea myself if I ever hit the 2.625 club
I believe that you will be able to acquire 2.625 Bitcoin in the market and transfer them to your cold wallet. This is the way. |
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Personally, I am an atheist.
It's not that I care if you believe in the sun, the moon or some deity, but for an atheist you seem to know a lot about Christianity. But please remind me, what makes a cult or religion so bad?
Religions were not created to make people bad (quite the contrary), but in the name of various religions (including Christianity) great crimes were committed and millions of people suffered and lost their lives. I will not go to OT, but will only repeat that it makes no sense to push Bitcoin in that direction. Richard Thaler has proven that there is no mathematical model, no matter how complex, that could predict the price (i.e., the behavior of market players) of not only Bitcoin but any other asset as well. Therefore, no matter what your strategy is regarding Bitcoin, it will rely not on science but solely on faith. So why your Bitcoin strategy is not modern cult or religion?
I honestly don't care what he proved (or not), because Bitcoin is not a philosophy as you want to present it, it is based on solid facts, unless you think that cryptography and mathematics are also some kind of religion or cult? Interesting point of view. So, are you saying that you have a Ph.D. in Mathematics and fully understand the elliptic cryptography (ECDSA), which serves as the mathematical basis for Bitcoin? Additionally, you have a Ph.D. in Computer Science and can review the Bitcoin source code. Or did you just finish elementary school and simply believe that everything I mentioned just works? So, what is your opinion on Bitcoin based on, knowledge or faith? |
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@KalOlak, before using the forum it would be wise to read the rules of the forum, do you agree? In that case, you would know what rule 32 is and you wouldn't do what you are doing.
To begin with, I will just say that it is completely pointless and wrong to involve any elements of religion when it comes to Bitcoin, because we are not any cult, sect or church or fanatics from the underground who want to destroy the financial order of the world.
Furthermore, if you are suggesting that Saylor is like the apostles, then I assume that you consider Satoshi Nakamoto to be some kind of modern day Jesus who sacrificed himself so that the world could have Bitcoin? This not only makes no sense, but it harms Bitcoin much more than it helps it in any way.
It is your personal matter what you will think and how you will act in life, but I am guided by the old saying "Give to the emperor what is emperor, and to God what is God's."
Personally, I am an atheist. But please remind me, what makes a cult or religion so bad? Richard Thaler has proven that there is no mathematical model, no matter how complex, that could predict the price (i.e., the behavior of market players) of not only Bitcoin but any other asset as well. Therefore, no matter what your strategy is regarding Bitcoin, it will rely not on science but solely on faith. So why your Bitcoin strategy is not modern cult or religion? |
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~Snip
In terms of adopting bitcoin, I totally agree, that Michael Saylor is a total bitcoin supporter and lover. In fact, as far as I know, Michael Saylor is currently in fourth place in the world, as the owner of the most cryptocurrency assets, and bitcoin is probably the most widely owned cryptocurrency. So do not be surprised if Michael Saylor is called a supporter of cryptocurrency assets (bitcoin) which will be very influential. But when compared to the apostles in a religion, I think this opinion is not quite right. Because cryptocurrency or bitcoin is not a belief or a religion. But bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a digital asset that can be used as an investment or a means of payment. So the totality of Michael Saylor to bitcoin, is like implementing it in the company system that he owns. Indeed, all of that will certainly have a big influence on the adoption of bitcoin on a large scale. But still, the context of adopting bitcoin with a religious teaching spread by its apostles is very different, so it still can't be equalized. I think you won't argue that Saylor doesn't use Bitcoin as a means of payment. Saylor uses Bitcoin as an investment, that's for sure. But besides that, Saylor also uses Bitcoin as collateral for a margin loan. Why sell Bitcoin if you can use it as collateral in the bank? If the price of Bitcoin grows at a higher percentage per year than Saylor's loan interest rate, Saylor will be able to get refinancing from banks forever. Skin in the game, tho. |
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While decentralized exchange or P2P, the price is only depend on supply and demand. Right now Bitcoin price is $29,200, but people might be willing to buy Bitcoin for $28,000 or $31,000 depend on the seller.
Decentralized exchanges and P2P just make arbitrage on centralized exchange + you pay double or even triple fee. |
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Supply and demand. Each exchange has separate markets for each currency which fluctuates based on the recent trades. You can see the offers to buy and the offers to sell.
Your demand is actually adjusted to the real FX rates of your fiat, but with some degree of lag as well. In addition, price tends to differ a bit between exchanges but they generally tend towards a certain price. That's where the arbitrage opportunities comes in.
On point. Another big factor often enough is also news. As soon as for example China hinted whatever bans of crypto, the price dropped. Tesla announces to buy btc and/or the possibility to pay for your car in btc, the price went up. It's still supply and demand since because of these news the demand to buy btc in hopes of a raise of price goes up, but still the influence is there. Crypto is a strange thing still. So hard to see through every detail. To change price you need place market buy or sell. News can't change price, lol. |
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