in this case i hope i am wrong =P

i believe that head and shoulders need to be defined by a flat line, not a descending or ascending one. Otherwise its just noise on a trend.

sure that is a scenario.

a likely one?

i doubt it. If we clear 300 for any meaningful period of time, we will never see these numbers again.

Some smart trader said that you have to smell the technicals and taste the fundamentals. My sentiment a balance of the fundamental situation as I think the feeling is the same as 2012 because while the structure is not the same, the sentiment is very similar and the wave structure is close enough.

The sentiment in 2012 was a true split between whether it will succeed or not which caused a price gridlock for a few months.
The sentiment now is a similar in that there are quite some unknowns around which shape bitcoin will take in the future. Until those are ironed out (i.e. the cap drama is settled), we will continue to see a flatline in price. I am not ruling out further capitulation, but going by price action alone I doubt it. The weak hands left quite a few months ago already.

To me this feels pretty similar to the time when it was hovering between 4-5 after the 32 bubble. I think the waves are becoming longer in time frame as time goes on however which would account for the length of time we are seeing in this range vs 2012.

Great graph. Very insightful to see this visually displaying so clearly what I was feeling.

It also feels like it did in 2011. Quite some uncertainty and the price still not going down farther for an extended period of time.

Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble? Based on the length of the bear trend?

I estimate that once we get a working block size limit increase, we will "unlock" the next bubble. It will be slow and steady for awhile, maybe 6 months to a year before people realize again that its starting and then all hell breaks loose... again.

Nice one, thanks Oda.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?

i used to enjoy the tinfoil hat aspect to so many bitcoiners, but these days it is just sad & annoying.

exactly. i would not want to be shorting btc right now. the charts are still showing indecision and the fundamentals are saying up.

Can you ELI5 please exactly how you came up with that figure? His analysis looks more bearish to me than anything else.

since noone mentioned it yet: https://twitter.com/MagicalTux/status/596622731711352832?s=09

Yes, an actually decent suggestion from Mark Frappacino.

So you are saying that the price is going to be 5x what it is, but not to buy now?

Even if you buy only a small amount, that amount of coins will be worth much more than what you would get if you were to be buying market order once it passes the ATH. I cringe thinking thinking about the slippage on a market order once we pass that. Probably $100 slip heh.

thats not volatility, thats slippage...

why would that create more volatility? if anything market makers decrease it by providing additional liquidity.

i seriously hope that we dont see any delays. That would mean we dragged our feet far too long and now have to rush to clean up the mess. I think its really great that Mike and Gavin are getting out ahead of this change to try and get consensus before it might even be a possibility.

Agree with you guys. I'm really at a loss over this whole discussion. Not extending the limit at some point in the near future is maybe the worst thing we could do.

That being said, why do you figure it will take 3 years for lightning to be operational?

with a $940 high 

If the idea is to convey conceptual ideas to the devs, then I agree that a wiki is the best way to do so. If its to a broader audience then a prezi can be a very powerful tool for doing so, but usually only within the context of some speech or as mentioned above, debate. Videos are best for reaching the widest audience possible but much of the nuance will be more difficult to convey.