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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 917356 times)
RyNinDaCleM
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May 28, 2015, 11:44:42 AM
 #2901

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?


2 orange lines above and below BTC price? What are they?

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Afrikoin
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May 28, 2015, 12:00:02 PM
 #2902

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.




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Fabrizio89
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May 28, 2015, 12:03:40 PM
 #2903

Analysis is everyone sold already, price is kept up by people buying on margin and overleveraging without a real support structure below them. The average bitcoiner always looked bad at traders shorting his precious, but the real problem was done by those who overleveraged the shit out of this when there was no market demand. GJ everyone

And about the USD recession, banks are about to increase interest rates so gl with that.
realdos
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May 28, 2015, 04:24:54 PM
 #2904

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

If this support finally fails and become a resistance, is the prediction you made about a long silent period of 1 - 1.5 years still valid? Or likely a much longer silent period is expected since this support is broken?
RyNinDaCleM
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May 28, 2015, 09:22:03 PM
 #2905

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.



I know things look bad on USD terms, and while I believe there is impending doom in US financial markets, I don't see and end of USD any time soon. The USG won't relinquish that power yet. They are a huge part of the over inflation on stocks. Once they let up, stocks will plummet and all will be well. At least for a bear like me. Tongue

HeliKopterBen
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May 29, 2015, 12:23:26 AM
 #2906

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?


That actually correlates quite well

It would be nice to see a correlation coefficient if someone wanted to figure it out.  Sometimes correlation can be a bit decieving when just eyeballing a chart.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
thefiniteidea
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May 29, 2015, 01:19:01 AM
Last edit: May 29, 2015, 01:41:35 AM by thefiniteidea
 #2907

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.



I know things look bad on USD terms, and while I believe there is impending doom in US financial markets, I don't see and end of USD any time soon. The USG won't relinquish that power yet. They are a huge part of the over inflation on stocks. Once they let up, stocks will plummet and all will be well. At least for a bear like me. Tongue

Based on known sentiment and voting patterns, we will have a dovish FOMC well into 2016. I can't really see any bear market until 2017, 2018 because of that fact... but that's just me. It really all depends on unemployment figures, though. But even the way economies rely on labor incomes is radically changing, so it's hard to say with as much certainty anymore when the bull ends and bear begins (sounds like a good Radiohead song).

http://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-june-rate-hike-doubtful-1432144801
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102569651

More on the voting members of the Fed:
http://chandlerasset.com/blog/2014/09/rotation-at-the-fed-what-does-it-mean-for-policy-in-2015/
https://www.briefing.com/investor/our-view/the-big-picture/meet-your-new-fomc.htm

https://twitter.com/thefiniteidea

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oda.krell
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May 29, 2015, 10:54:45 AM
 #2908

That sma is a great outstanding support so far. Hope it will be for next years.

However technicians of gold and euro (us dollar generally) suggest dollar will probably rally soon. This makes me unsure will this support survive or not.

Since when did bitcoin correlate to moves in usd?


That actually correlates quite well

It would be nice to see a correlation coefficient if someone wanted to figure it out.  Sometimes correlation can be a bit decieving when just eyeballing a chart.

Here you go...

Correlation coefficient between daily close of BTC/USD and DXY, over a rolling 365 day window (right click for full resolution)



To my (untrained) eyes, it does look like there could be evidence for an inverse relationship between the two currencies (we're approaching a coefficient of -1), however:

(1) BTC/USD itself is measured against the dollar, our second variable. The effect we see could (mostly) be the dollar appreciating and everything else depreciating. Which wouldn't be a particularly interesting observation, for the purpose of prediction.

(2) Before 2014, there's evidence for a positive relationship between the two (strong positive coefficient). It's only since the beginning of the 2014/2015/... bear market that the coefficient turned negative.

Those two points together, i.e. during bull market, positive relation, during bear market, negative relation, makes me think that, at least by the superficial analysis I can do, I don't have much reason to assume the two are correlated in a meaningful way.

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inca
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May 29, 2015, 10:58:17 AM
 #2909

I've seen a lot of talk on the rise of USD and US stocks and suggestions of an expected bear turn (at some point, not sure when?). TBH, i don't keep up with USD trends or US financial markets. What i've picked up from all i've come across, is an impending poof! USD, US stocks and possibly other central bank fueled artificial valuations.

Can anyone here confirm how true this is? And possibly some guesstimates on when this poof! might occur?

Can the US really go back into another recession? resembling 2007 magnitude? I am really out of sync.

Also, USD vs local currency rates in East, SOuth and West AFrica - KES, TZ, UG, Naira, Rand, CEdi are all losing value partly due to the dollar appreciates. SO, i have even more reasons to keep track of this possibility.



I know things look bad on USD terms, and while I believe there is impending doom in US financial markets, I don't see and end of USD any time soon. The USG won't relinquish that power yet. They are a huge part of the over inflation on stocks. Once they let up, stocks will plummet and all will be well. At least for a bear like me. Tongue

Did they let up NIRP in Japan? How long can you wait?
HeliKopterBen
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May 29, 2015, 02:09:54 PM
 #2910

Correlation coefficient between daily close of BTC/USD and DXY, over a rolling 365 day window (right click for full resolution)



To my (untrained) eyes, it does look like there could be evidence for an inverse relationship between the two currencies (we're approaching a coefficient of -1), however:

(1) BTC/USD itself is measured against the dollar, our second variable. The effect we see could (mostly) be the dollar appreciating and everything else depreciating. Which wouldn't be a particularly interesting observation, for the purpose of prediction.

(2) Before 2014, there's evidence for a positive relationship between the two (strong positive coefficient). It's only since the beginning of the 2014/2015/... bear market that the coefficient turned negative.

Those two points together, i.e. during bull market, positive relation, during bear market, negative relation, makes me think that, at least by the superficial analysis I can do, I don't have much reason to assume the two are correlated in a meaningful way.

Thanks.  I'm sure it will negatively correlate until it doesnt.  I agree in that correlation may not be useful here.  The dollar has not gained 200x or had a 90% drop in the past few years like bitcoin has.

Counterfeit:  made in imitation of something else with intent to deceive:  merriam-webster
Afrikoin
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May 29, 2015, 10:48:26 PM
 #2911

"""But if I had to oversimplify with just one idea, it would be what I just alluded to a moment ago—that people are not confident in their future. They remember the financial crisis, and they worry. They hear about inequality through the Occupy Wall Street Movement and in many other places, and they worry where they will fall on the inequality spectrum in a decade or so. They observe the amazing but perhaps unsettling rise of information technology (IT), and they worry. As a result of all of this anxiety, they want to save more. But given the lack of options to invest in at a high return, they end up just bidding up the prices of existing assets. That, in turn, creates disappointment, more concern, and perhaps the feeling that they might be too late because of how much the market has already risen. But they still invest in it because of their anxieties."""

Robert Shiller on http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-29/robert-shiller-unlike-1929-time-everything-stocks-bonds-and-housing-overvalued



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seleme
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May 30, 2015, 12:34:14 AM
 #2912

Correlation coefficient between daily close of BTC/USD and DXY, over a rolling 365 day window (right click for full resolution)



To my (untrained) eyes, it does look like there could be evidence for an inverse relationship between the two currencies (we're approaching a coefficient of -1), however:

(1) BTC/USD itself is measured against the dollar, our second variable. The effect we see could (mostly) be the dollar appreciating and everything else depreciating. Which wouldn't be a particularly interesting observation, for the purpose of prediction.

(2) Before 2014, there's evidence for a positive relationship between the two (strong positive coefficient). It's only since the beginning of the 2014/2015/... bear market that the coefficient turned negative.

Those two points together, i.e. during bull market, positive relation, during bear market, negative relation, makes me think that, at least by the superficial analysis I can do, I don't have much reason to assume the two are correlated in a meaningful way.

Thanks.  I'm sure it will negatively correlate until it doesnt.  I agree in that correlation may not be useful here.  The dollar has not gained 200x or had a 90% drop in the past few years like bitcoin has.

This! While Bitcoin was rallying from zero to 1200, dollar surely wasn't being dropped to stone age.

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May 30, 2015, 02:33:26 AM
Last edit: May 30, 2015, 03:13:15 AM by masterluc
 #2913

I started to think bitcoin price entered silence stage. More than month in range lock dancing just above weekly sma200....

This is what we had in 2011-2012. I told about that fractal that I expect it now (as they are similar waves I). And now I try to catch a silence stage. But I still can't identify bounce stage. So probably bitcoin may continue correction...

Also you may estimate in this model how much time till next bubble  Grin (~ 2 years in my estimations)




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May 30, 2015, 04:25:56 AM
 #2914

snip

Nice one, thanks Oda.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
lebing
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May 30, 2015, 04:29:59 AM
 #2915

I started to think bitcoin price entered silence stage. More than month in range lock dancing just above weekly sma200....

This is what we had in 2011-2012. I told about that fractal that I expect it now (as they are similar waves I). And now I try to catch a silence stage. But I still can't identify bounce stage. So probably bitcoin may continue correction...

Also you may estimate in this model how much time till next bubble  Grin (~ 2 years in my estimations)


It also feels like it did in 2011. Quite some uncertainty and the price still not going down farther for an extended period of time.

Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble? Based on the length of the bear trend?

I estimate that once we get a working block size limit increase, we will "unlock" the next bubble. It will be slow and steady for awhile, maybe 6 months to a year before people realize again that its starting and then all hell breaks loose... again.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
masterluc
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May 30, 2015, 05:07:23 AM
 #2916

Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble?

I expect silence stage is equivalent to correction stage in time (~1.5 years).
I expect correction stage is in it final phase, end is not too far ahead.
I expect bounce stage is ahead and may take up to 6 months.

So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go.

molecular
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May 30, 2015, 06:56:44 AM
 #2917

Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble?

I expect silence stage is equivalent to correction stage in time (~1.5 years).
I expect correction stage is in it final phase, end is not too far ahead.
I expect bounce stage is ahead and may take up to 6 months.

So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go.

If this fractal indeed has merit, shouldn't we first see a revisit of ~$160 before the bounce would occur?


PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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May 30, 2015, 07:32:39 AM
 #2918

They say bitcoin network reaching it's transactions per block throughput...

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May 30, 2015, 07:42:02 AM
 #2919

1 year, 1.5, 2 years i can wait and accumulate BTC  Smiley



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8up
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May 30, 2015, 08:18:08 AM
 #2920

Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble?

I expect silence stage is equivalent to correction stage in time (~1.5 years).
I expect correction stage is in it final phase, end is not too far ahead.
I expect bounce stage is ahead and may take up to 6 months.

So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go.

Silence can include a tiny-little bubble, too. Maybe X2 or X3 and a following contraction until more silence happens.


Always wrong until not.
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