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The drop in China will be spectacular when it comes. They're really betting against gravity.
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Crash is still bullshit while we're still up week on week.
This could go on for a long time
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Every single chinese speculator who bought bitcoins at any price is sitting on profits, some of them massive profits.
100% of them!!!
literally every single one, and not a single one can be short, or hedged, or on the wrong side of options, so 100% of them are sitting on big to massive profits!!! all in less than 30 days.... the kind of returns you lucky to get in the stock market in 5 to 10 years.
In all my years I have never ever ever seen anything like this, such a one sided state of affairs, it's blowing my mind.
actually i disagree with the analysis that 100% of all investors made money in the past 30 days, like in all financial markets you'd be surprised how many weak hands panic sell (buy high sell low) and how many day traders lose most of their holdings (statistically most day traders fail). There are always winners and losers, usually more losers than winners. +1 The volume is testament to that. If the initial statement were true, there would need to be a lot more BTC available. |
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 Must be true, cos I drew lines. |
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BTCChina is real -- all the exchanges are "real" now.
However, is the volume largely people already in the game doing a big circlejerk, or is it really newcomers? And how much of the price rise can be attributed to them?
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More and more am I starting to believe that BTCChina is (for a large part) fake.
- Their volume reports are ridiculous. On the 3 minute chart they have almost exclusively 300 btc per candlestick.
- The whole rise-up at BTC-China seems orchestrated. Every sharp rise is nicely crafted into a short dip which then recovers in order to make others believe that it's safe to buy
And most compellingly
- During the crash the volume stays _THE SAME_ throughout. There is a sharp drop, but no panic selling at all! The volume is constant. This does not make any sense to me.
- Notice how every downward candle towards is also attempted to be caugt immediately - many many intermittent recoveries during a crash. It just doesn't make sense.
It's almost as if the whole exchange is scripted to make fake orders to amplify any movements seen on Gox. Zero trading fees would allow this.
=== I'm just speculating here ===
It seems more reasonable to believe that chinese people want to extract fiat from their currency, that could explain the huge difference in price, this is more reasonable for me considering how strict the chinese government is regarding international transfers. I don't think it is orchestrated, but I think you are underestimating how the 0 fee changes behaviour. You buy, wait for a tiny rise, sell, wait, buy... etc.... you can make money but tend to want to lock it in very quickly. As a result ,the "volume" is massively exaggerated, when in fact it is relatively little BTC changing hands.... but makes for a very exciting and addictive game of pass the bag. This is single-handedly responsible for the "China effect". How many times now have we heard that BTC China has a "coin shortage" on the exchange? Ahem... |
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Where is the source code?
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Are you being paid for this thread?
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Actually, cryptocurrencies may well be the future -- for governments as well as us.
Governments love power... so I believe they will take the opportunity to embrace and extend cryptocurrencies. To the point that libertarians hate them.
Think about it -- a proof of work system is too perfect for them. Yes, it does remove the need for trusted authorities, but it also removes the need to trust the populace. If all payments are on a public blockchain, tax can be built into the protocol. The need for traditional taxmen and auditors goes away.
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What do you all mean "based on the math"? Just because the last bubble rose 800+% doesn't mean this one will! At all. In any shape or form. It could grow much bigger, or pop immediately. The only "math" that matters is buying and selling pressure. The latter is often off the books until it's too late. OTOH there is plenty of bullish sentiment each time we exit a triangle in the right direction.
You sound like gamblers pretending to see patterns in randomness. This has been going on since the last crash with people predicting based on past patterns. Why haven't people figured out yet that this doesn't work?
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lotta price increase without impressive volume / $ amounts
and BTW that previous sell from a few days ago was a test run, no true panic volume on the so called "panic day".
The real panic day is yet to come. Don't know when, but I don't want any part of it. These parabolic rises are never a good thing.
Guys there will be no panic day  because of the known number of btc in circulation. People who know that will never sell bitcoins on dumps will just buy the cheap one's Sure there will be a crash. But it doesn't matter, as it will rise again. But don't think there won't be one -- it will be more sickening than you expect. |
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I just had a bit of a "holy shit" moment.
Bitcoin will break China's control over CNY outflows.
It is very hard to get CNY out of China - the cap is 50k CNY per Chinese citizen per year. This is a big reason why there is a huge arb between USD and CNY Bitcoin exchanges: Westerners can't just wire yuan out of the country. However, as this bubble settles down and the arbitrage market does its thing, more and more individuals in China will cash in on their 50k CNY limit, since it is an easy profit opportunity. They will wire their money to Western exchanges, buy bitcoins there, and sell them domestically. The Chinese markets will drift closer in price to the Western markets.
This means you will be able to move money in and out of China freely, by buying bitcoins on one end and selling them on the other. Chinese citizens will act in rational self-interest to effectively "sell" their 50k CNY export limits.
If wealthy Chinese people would like to buy lots of expensive things directly from the West... now they can, by purchasing the import limits of others by proxy.
Of course, China will not like this.
It helps... but it was never that hard to get money into China. It's getting it out that has always been the problem. Bitcoin can certainly help though. I'm not sure how much in demand USD are these days... but people do always need to buy things overseas. |
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This doesn't make a lot of sense. There are easier ways to convert to USD in China -- if for some bizarre reason you wanted to bet on a losing horse. Each individual gets a 50k USD allowance to convert at the bank too. After that, there are unlicensed money changers.
I agree the arbitrage gap may be reflective of suppressed international money flow, but the runup is pure speculation.
Furthermore the "largest exchange" assertion is flawed... by volume, yes. By actual money flow in and out, who knows? the 0 fee is likely skewing the numbers somewhat.
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There seems to be a rough price / volume divergence still.
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Ya.. if wasn't for China, I'd say a lot of resistance again. If China plows through though it'll prob be pretty uneventful.
I believe before this last "correction", China went as high as like $430 USD at one point.
The btcchina ATH is 2630¥, currently worth $431.75. Absolute insanity. I've never seen arbitrage opportunities this big. You could drive a truck through bitstamp/btcchina. It's all so surreal. It went from 2100 to 2600 within a couple of hours though. Absolutely crazy. Everyone was screaming "sell". You know tops when you see them. We're getting quite a bit of arbitrage from Westerners too; overseas wires are cheap and fast, but a limited resource. Could you share an effective strategy for Westerners? I'm still under the impression that if I was to sell on btcchina, I'd be unable to recover my money. I have considered selling and waiting for the bubble to subside (and the arbs to trend back to zero), then exchanging back to BTC and into USD, but I'd much prefer a more direct system. I PMed you. You basically need contacts willing to use their personal 50K USD conversion. The problem is, people willing can just arb the gap themselves. |
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Ya.. if wasn't for China, I'd say a lot of resistance again. If China plows through though it'll prob be pretty uneventful.
I believe before this last "correction", China went as high as like $430 USD at one point.
The btcchina ATH is 2630¥, currently worth $431.75. Absolute insanity. I've never seen arbitrage opportunities this big. You could drive a truck through bitstamp/btcchina. It's all so surreal. It went from 2100 to 2600 within a couple of hours though. Absolutely crazy. Everyone was screaming "sell". You know tops when you see them. We're getting quite a bit of arbitrage from Westerners too; overseas wires are cheap and fast, but a limited resource. |
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Not sure I catch your reason 2 -- but BTCChina went hyperbolic on Saturday morning here. Crazy buying frenzy, increasing by hundreds every few minutes. It definitely *looked* like a top. It will be hard to revisit those levels of frenzy for a while.
I'd say the market is looking a little unclear at the moment. I've been selling slowly all the way up, selling the last during the hyperbolic rise. I'll go back in if we can hold steady for a while, but that's far from guaranteed. I'd be very happy to see a more significant dip.
I imagine there are many others sitting on the sidelines, so bids may be depressed. But there aren't many sellers stepping up either....
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People all over the forum were baying for sub-$50, all the way down. At the time anything below $110 seemed a bit rash.
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Not to flog a dead horse, but since when was inputs.io considered a secure service? I saw many on here warn about it for many months.
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I don't claim to know the technical details of why the article in the OP doesn't work, although I've seen lots of people talking about that in the past.
Can somebody shed some light? Why won't that "selfish miner" strategy work?
I haven't looked in detail, but the idea seems to just be a 51% attack that you do in secret -- not very likely. The very premise of "don't communicate your bitcoin find to other miners" makes no sense, as your bitcoins are only bitcoins (and are only redeemable) if they are in the public blockchain. |
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