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8001  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2021, 02:03:32 AM
I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.

 


might happen or not.

much the same as my streched cycle could happen
or some other case.

we are living in very interesting times.


Def. interesting!
And recently even frightening times, due to the Corona shit show.

If I had to bet my money, I would also bet on a lengthening cycle. Or one that goes more flat and sideways than the previous ones.
With all that money printing, I just can't see a 2 year long bear phase, where it looks dead.




 

 

yeah my thoughts exactly.
8002  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2021, 01:35:27 AM
I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.

 


might happen or not.

much the same as my streched cycle could happen
or some other case.

we are living in very interesting times.
8003  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 16, 2021, 12:49:09 AM
I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.
8004  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: How I use multiple pools to mine btc. on: December 15, 2021, 11:58:16 PM
spacer for people interested in take a shot most likely it takes over a year to get a block

1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
Cool
9)
10)
8005  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / How I use multiple pools to mine btc. on: December 15, 2021, 11:57:18 PM
Okay I am not a big miner but I am running about 1.3ph down from a peak of 1.9ph

I have other gear for other coins but this is about btc mining strategy.

I point 1.2ph to 1.25ph to viabtc pps+

I point  .05 to .10 ph to high variance low hash pools.

mmpool.org has been my go to low hash pool

and I went from sept 2017 to oct 2021 with zero blocks mining there. The pool then hit 3 blocks 1 in oct 1 in nov 1 in dec.

if the lesser amount gear was pointed to a conventional pool from sept 2017 to dec 2021 it would have earned about .4 btc

but the three rapid blocks were close to 1.2 btc total

of course on oct 1 this year I would have earn zero vs .38 or so.

So low hash high various pools that hit a block 1 or 2 times a year are both very good and very bad.

So I am now looking at other small pools to use.
I will still keep some hash at mmpool but they are a bit flakey and not every miner works for them.
I had a few guys ask me in detail how to create the steady money flow and high risk setup that I did.
My newest guy tried mmpool and his avalons did not work on mmpool.
so i looked around for a proper style pool.

came up with two choices and its funny as one pool owner does not like the other pool owner.

And i am not looking for flame wars but I am looking to see if anyone has interest in spreading some flyer hash to a small pool while having more hash on a pool like viabtc.

So I self modded this to keep thread civil.

My goal would be that the small pool has say 10 miners in the 100th area

the miners would need to have a lot more hash on the safe pool since 10 x 100 = 1000th which means a long fucking time between blocks.
8006  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Does anybody know which coin the Gekko Compac F can mine profitably? on: December 15, 2021, 05:26:26 PM
https://www.amazon.com/GekkoScience-FS7-Bitcoin-Efficient-Powerful/dp/B09HYQT4PT
"Stock hashing speed: 200 GH (please note: these miners run very hot and you must provide active cooling such as fan)
High Speed: 350 GH++ (Running at clock speed of 545 MHz Higher speed requires usb port above spec). To reach max speed of 500GH you will need 3amp usb port per miner!"
I wouldn't waste my time on this.

well its quiet. but will likely not earn a profit.

at op you could mine XEC at viabtc and hodl the XEC

if XEC takes off you will make a few bucks.
8007  Bitcoin / Mining support / Re: Diminishing Hash Rate Over Time on: December 15, 2021, 05:23:03 PM
Is it clean. A piece of dirt could cause a single hot chip.
8008  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 05:18:53 PM
What will happen of the bears can push this below 45750?

Eek.

I will get to ten coins faster.
😊
8009  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 03:42:20 PM
Who’s selling at bottom ?

Or at -38% ?

Anything from here to lower is considered very very weird to say the least

Just got a my buy $50 a day in btc going on and on and on.

I will hopefully get out of the 1-10 btc status by Jan 1 2023.




Every time I read about someone cracking the 10btc mark, I'm forced to think about mindrust. He was so proud of his 10   ...for a few days.

Please note: Not a comparison to you! I read you are mining shit for bit, and that you most likely have a totally different approach to Bitcoin than him.


If I get to ten coins by Jan 2023 I will be approaching my 66th birthday.

I would be looking to opt out of btc and the game in 2027.

So I am not dropping out like mindrust did 😊

We have four guys in on this.

64 me
58 warehouse owner
44 buysolar my partner since 2014
24  son of warehouse owner.

once the solar array is in place at the warehouse this spring or summer. The mine will always make profits.

Oh we may not be like 2021 profits but we will always make profits.
8010  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 03:10:07 PM
Who’s selling at bottom ?

Or at -38% ?

Anything from here to lower is considered very very weird to say the least

Just got a my buy $50 a day in btc going on and on and on.

I will hopefully get out of the 1-10 btc status by Jan 1 2023.

8011  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 12:37:33 PM
Is that not a problem?  According to an earlier post (no pun intended!) the purple paint must be “placed so that the bottom of the mark is not less than 3 feet from the ground or more than 5 feet from the ground.“ so if it goes right down to the ground it's not compliant.
Probably not serious, but you wouldn't want an issue on a technicality.

tl;dr: Posts painted entirely purple are more than is required.

Texas Penal Code § 30.05. Criminal Trespass

Sec 2 (D) the placement of identifying purple paint marks on trees or posts on the property, provided that the marks are:

(ii) placed so that the bottom of the mark is not less than three feet from the ground or more than five feet from the ground;  and


.... this seems quite clear that the mark needs to end 3 to 5 feet above the ground

.... a post painted all the way to the ground is just a purple post, not a purple-marked post

... at least it's an upgrade on a rusty old pipe

Doesn't the "not less than" part mean that you can paint it more if you so desire

Don’t think so. I am not a lawyer but that reads as “at least” to me. E.g. two feet or even no feet is “less than” three feet and so fails the “not less than” test.  I assume the point being that it shows as a clearly applied mark rather than simply happening to be a purple bit of material that was used to it make a fence.

It may be that it has become common for the posts to be wholly purple and it will be thus generally understood that that is equally acceptable.

I read that as a minimum requirement that you can exceed if you so desire. But I'm not a native speaker.

As a native speaker taught in Brooklyn , NY

I read it as inbetween 36 and 60 inches.

Interestedly it does mean it could be a small mark about an inch of purple say at the 48 inch mark.

Which is cooler since the piece of shit may not see it.


Bob can paint a rainbow at the 12 inch to 36 inch mark to correct his error.

pun intended
8012  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Mining (Altcoins) / Re: Does anybody know which coin the Gekko Compac F can mine profitably? on: December 15, 2021, 04:43:06 AM
it is best he tries each pool and comes back here to say if the stick works at them.
Franky I think he should  do mmpool.org but only if the stick works there.

I've tryed it with mmpool.org and my gekko-f.
It works fine with the pool.

just to let you know, even I am not the thread starter.

Do you mean you can mine btc coin with gekko compac F via the mmpool.org?
how much profit you can get for a day or a month on average?
Can I mine other coins with gekko compac F via the mmpool.org?

Thanks


okay none is the short answer.

the long answer is far more complex.

solo pools are basically impossible to hit.


mmpool you do not need to hit the pool to win coins.

you could go as long as 4 years and hit for zero money.

then the pool could hit three blocks quickly and you do well.

you need to understand a 300gh stick is bringing slingshot to a fight when everyone else has ak-47 guns. big pools have thousands of ak-47’s going up against you.

a little pool may have one or two against you. so you get a bigger share when the pool hits a block.
8013  Other / Meta / Re: Bitcointalk Youtube channel - what would you like to see? on: December 15, 2021, 04:21:58 AM
Finally saw this today and posted same day I read it.

May be okay.


who is the host bear?
8014  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 04:12:22 AM
30,000 pages and still no new forum software.

don’t be a debbie downer.


btw i still prefer this over reddit discord or telegram
8015  Economy / Computer hardware / Re: [WTS] - large quantity of electrical and cooling infrastructure in U.S. on: December 15, 2021, 03:50:21 AM
Looking to sell the remaining inventory leftover from our 20MW datacenter.
All items are in Bonner, Montana.

I have the following:

CABLE TRAY
2980 - linear feet of 18" Aluminum Cable Tray / Ladder Racking - Used Mostly B-Line
2100 - linear feet of 18" Steel Cable Tray / Ladder Racking - Used All B-Line
320 - linear feet of 24" Aluminum Cable Tray / Ladder Racking - Used Mostly B-Line
1000 - linear feet of deep unistrut - Various 2, 4, 8, & 12 foot lengths - Used

CABLE/WIRING
1500 - feet of 300 MCM Aluminum Building Cable - New
1200 - feet of 750 MCM Aluminum Building Cable - New
200 - feet of 15kV Shielded 133%, EPR, PVC - Aluminum - New

BREAKER PANELS
3 - 400 Amp Square D 84 Spot Breaker Panels. Each panel includes (73) 20A Breakers - These are basically brand new. They were installed and tested in a prototype shipping container that was never energized with miners.
24 - 225 Amp Liebert 208V Quad Smart Distribution/Breaker Panels(Cabinet Style) - 3Ph/208V 4 panels within each cabinet. Ea. panel has (10) 30A breakers & (1) 225A Main breaker. powerlogic ion6200 smart monitor panel. - Used

COOLING
9 - ACME 48" Box Fans, 3ph, 1.5HP, 230/3/60 ODP - NEW
44 - Acme/Dayton HAF36 - 36" Tubeaxial fan adj. 21,000 CFM, 3ph, 3HP,  with outdoor butterfly louvers, upgraded composite blades for reduced noise
6 - LG 12,000 BTU 115V Window-Mounted Air Conditioner with Remote Control, White - 4 of these were mounted but never ran and 2 are used

Let me know if you are interested in any of the above listed inventory and I can send you a spreadsheet with pricing and links to photos of all inventory.

Thanks

I will talk to some one about this.
8016  Bitcoin / Mining speculation / Re: 2021, time for a new general & diff speculation thread... on: December 15, 2021, 03:43:21 AM

Quote
Latest Block:   714199  (50 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   98.1533%  (536 / 546.08 expected, 10.08 behind)


Previous Difficulty:   22335659268936.39                            
Current Difficulty:   24195286980613.62                            
Next Difficulty:   between 24102829919051 and 24152570980818
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3821% and -0.1765%
Previous Retarget:   last Saturday at 3:40 AM  (+8.3258%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 25, 2021 at 6:35 AM  (in 10d 7h 54m 1s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 25, 2021 at 9:59 AM  (in 10d 11h 18m 26s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 54m 52s and 14d 6h 19m 17s



as said very early ¼ of the way means zip

but I rather see -1.84% then +2.0%😅
8017  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 01:18:14 AM
Quote
   “America is the prophetic image of the rest of the urban-industrial world as it will be a few years from now – recent public opinion polls have revealed that an actual majority of young people in their teens, the voters of tomorrow, have no faith in democratic institutions, see no objection to the censorship of unpopular ideas, do not believe that government of the people by the people is possible and would be perfectly content, if they can continue to live in the style to which the boom has accustomed them, to be fueled, from above, by an oligarchy of assorted experts. That so many of the well-fed young television-watchers in the world’s most powerful democracy should be so completely indifferent to the idea of self-government, so blankly uninterested in freedom of thought and the right to dissent, is distressing but not too surprising.”

    – Aldous Huxley’s “Brave New World Revisited” (1958)

So from a young people mindset, nothing has really changed. But what HAS changed is what and how the marketeers are selling to them.

For decades, consumers were marketed to on the basis of a homogeneous lifestyle: getting everyone on the same page in terms of what type of house, car, clothing, clubs, jewelry, trips, etc. constituted living in high style, class, and sophistication. These trends were all-encompassing, i.e., at any moment in time you were either part of the societal "in-club", or you weren't. Most people wanted to be in it, as there were benefits.

Now things have splintered all over the internet, and people can easily find their siloed, circle-jerking little havens for whatever stupid thing they are into...however banal, valueless, and classless it may be. So the elites have given up. Marketeers are no longer attempting to bring societies together under universal fads or notions of societal trends and ideas of classy norms. They are instead marketing directly to these splintered sub groups by collecting their individual data. "That silly thing, service, or over-indulgence you want that nobody else around you cares about except for your little circle of internet friends? Here it is, and we're here to help you get more of it."

Some people might see this as a good thing, like some sort of liberty from societal expectations and gatekeeping. But I believe that its why young people are so confused now. On the internet they have access to every stupid, fad-driven thing or indulgence they believe that they want in life, but no longer have any societal cues, guides or signposts to show them the way to live a happy, fulfilled, classy, sophisticated lifestyle. They are completely rudderless. And their parents and grandparents have completely given up trying to guide them and have checked out.

AKA - The future is a world of depressed, broke hoarders who will live in shoe boxes and endlessly shop the internet for trinkets. Change my mind.

I see it as the tower of babel worldwide instant communication and no one really efforts to communicate much.
8018  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 15, 2021, 01:13:31 AM
almost at
30000
8019  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2021, 11:23:31 PM
Lets push us past 29999 soon as we can.
8020  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: December 14, 2021, 03:50:14 PM
Somehow I got into the wrong movie today, I wanted actually to watch "Honeybadger goes to moon" but I ended up in some third class drama called "Bipolar clown pumps doggie meme shit".

Remind me again, when is the last Doge mined?
What, never? Huh, and people buy this crap at 20 cents. Makes you really wonder about the level of insanity in this world.

Oh, okay I see, it is because Doge is totally green et al while bitcoin is running on coal and diesel... makes sense.

* psycodad shakes head again in disbelief, starts drinking earlier than usual..

But doge has descending inflation rate enforced while fiat does not.

ie

year  as it mines x a year

1                  x doge
2                2x doge          100%      inflation
3                3x doge            50%      inflation
4                4x doge            33%      inflation
5                5x doge            25%      inflation
6                6x doge            20%      inflation
7                7x doge            16.67% inflation
8                8x doge            14.28% inflation
9                9x doge            12.50%.   "
10             10x doge.           11.11%   "
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20              20x doge
21              21x doge          5%       inflation
22
23
24
25             25x doge
26             26x doge          4%       inflation
...

50             50x doge
51             51x doge         2%        inflation

100          100x doge
101          101x doge       1%        inflation in year 100


So as fucked up and shitty as Doge is it is better than fiat as its inflation rate descends year after year. And it never runs out of coins to mine


BTC is built to be rare as fuck
I have 1300th mining it every day and only get 2.386735 coins a year of which 0.5966 is mine to keep.

I know this is a BTC area and I am not a big DOGE fan as a buyer or seller of it.

But it is still viable to mine and convert to cash and BTC

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