We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.
A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...
I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....
"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"
Emperors, indeed.
Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened. well said. |
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i haven't been looking into too many of the other threads but the reaction to this rally seems so subdued. where are all the rocket pictures? how many sold into the SR dump? not my subs, i can tell you that. here you go:  |
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I'm at a BTC meetup in Sunnyvale, where the Hashfast VP of Engineering is giving a talk right now.
This is admittedly rather time-sensitive, but if anyone has any questions, I'll be happy to ask 'em!
do it this way. take notes and report back to us.  |
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i missed April 10. (hint: spreadsheets with conditional formatting make them easier to find) you're too smart. |
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50% return in 90 days would mean something on the order of a network @ 10 PH/s that seems plausible. If the second board only provides 50 GH/s "equivalent" that would imply difficulty quadruples again in the next 90 days or 40 PH/s. It might happen nobody said MPP is a guarantee. Then again I don't see the network getting to 40 PH/s in the next 180-210 days.
I'm not talking 180 days. MPP kicks in at the end of 90 days, at which point network difficulty is likely to be quadruple what it is when the miner starts mining. MPP hashrate won't come on line until well after 90 days, which means it is worth a very small fraction of the original hashrate. It is just theater. ROI is not being "protected". MPP is nothing more than a miniscule consolation prize. seems to me 2 conditions need to be satisfied for MPP to be worthwhile: 1. after 3 mo, the difficulty needs to be in a range corresponding to less than the maximum of 5x one's original HR from the point you receive your units. at that point, the MPP can kick in and bring you even to your original investment in the form of the BTC already generated plus additional hashing capacity from the MPP. 2. at that point of #1 the difficulty needs to stabilize or decrease to start returning more than your initial cost in the form of profit. there's definitely a chance this could happen so it is not necessarily an "roi theater". |
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only 3 days in BTC history where the price has closed higher. On which exchange? Mt Gox closed at $162.30, 187.50, $230, and $165 April 7-10 respectively. It also reached intraday highs of $166.42 and $162 on April 24th and 25th. you're right. i missed April 10. only 4 days in BTC history where the price closed higher than today. |
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i don't even have to watch it to know what it says. my response, learn to think for yourself. |
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Why does it feel like the MPP isn't really protection, but just a setup to get us to buy more equipment in the future?
Seems a pretty bad "setup" to give away free hardware. HF has clarified the MPP is for complete mining boards. Beyond that you just need power supply, cooling, usb cables, and some device (PC, rPi, other device capable of running linux) as a host. All of that can be bought off the shelf from newegg or amazon. HF doesn't benefit from the MPP. some might call this "generosity". i freely admit, other terms that might end up applying are "brilliance" or "stupidity" depending on how it turns out. as a miner, i'm happy.  |
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Bragraphics: I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.
believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks. it seems to be your modus operandi. like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x. doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses. i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners. once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category. an advantageous one at that. this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race. like i said, i just have to outrun you. If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol). If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*. You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress. but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes. at least i have a chance. where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then? |
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CoinTerra does state in the release that: "CoinTerra® is on schedule for December 2013 delivery date for the first batch of TerraMiner™, with mock tape-out already performed and tape-out soon to follow. ". So with mock tape-out done tape out should not be far behind, as a mock tape-out is a very close-in-time preparation for actual tape out.
i quite like the renders.. its nice to see whats inside. even xcrowd, with their (very) pretty renders, didnt show what the insides looked like (presumably because they didnt get close to designing them ;-) fwiw, hashfast had this to say on mock tape-out... https://hashfast.com/countdown-to-tapeout/HF is currently working on producing 3D renders. |
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I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.
believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks. it seems to be your modus operandi. like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x. doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses. i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners. once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category. an advantageous one at that. this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race. like i said, i just have to outrun you. If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol). If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*. You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress. but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes. at least i have a chance. where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then? |
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Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months? MPP is fully in BTC. It based on the theoretical max mining rate computed using difficulty. Essentially if you buy a rig for X BTC and 90 days later using a reverse mining caluclator it says you earned y BTC then you will receive as much additional boards (up to 400% of original purchase) necessary for you to have mined x BTC. For customers who paid USD/EUR the BTC paid is based on the exchange rate at the day of purchase. and for the mathematically challenged Bragraphics (lol!) 400%=5x. |
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I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.
believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks. it seems to be your modus operandi. like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x. doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses. i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners. once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category. an advantageous one at that. I believe you are misrepresenting what the MPP ACTUALLY DOES. It doesn't just kick in and give you 5x the hashrate (Not sure where 5x comes from as it's up to 4 Chips/Modules last I looked which is 4x), it only kicks in enough to let you break even which IS by all means a very good deal as long as the hashrate doesn't explode and you end up needing more than the maximum that the MPP Offers (Which I don't believe you will). Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months? Oh and just to let you know, for every 10 KnC Jupiters you purchased you would get a free one so my "ROI" is looking pretty good. Considering each one of my units have already mined ~11 BTC/Each (Roughly $1400/each) Minus the "Free Jupiter" ($7000), making each Jupiter already at about $4760/each right now and only getting lower each day. |
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Can we get back on topic? Gold is recovering in Asia this morning...
weird. Bitcoin is still going up. weird so bitcoin, gold and silver all going up? Or what you are using to measure them is going down... We need a new measuring stick. This one keeps shrinking. zerg? only 3 days in BTC history where the price has closed higher. Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. |
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I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.
believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks. it seems to be your modus operandi. like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x. doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses. i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners. once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category. an advantageous one at that. this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race. like i said, i just have to outrun you. |
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Anyone still think you will get a RIO even with the MPP? Now that we know they are going to be delay, the network just keeps going up and even if after they ship MPP I dont see it happening...
the way i view it is i don't care to outrun the network right now. i just have to outrun guys like Bargraphics from KNC. presuming we have roughly the same capacity once i get my initial HF order in the next month or so, i just care to stay with guys like him until the MPP kicks in. then i'll get 5x the hashing for free to catapult me well past him. sure, if he wants to go out and buy 5x more capacity to stay with me, he's welcome to. but do i think he'll do it? no, i think he'll be forced to turn off his machines. |
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That wouldn't obscure the IP as the transaction is still being relayed by your connection. If you had a VPN set up on the host and shared the VPN's TAP adapter to the VM, that would obscure your IP.
actually forgot that part. yes, i have a VPN on the host. what is the TAP adapter? |
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so am i, or am i not, obscuring a BTC transaction's IP address when running a wallet from a VM?
When you spend bitcoins in your setup, via what path do those transactions make it to the rest of the network? i'm sending them thru the VM's network adapter (NAT) to the host, then via wifi to a router, to modem, to net. |
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so am i, or am i not, obscuring a BTC transaction's IP address when running a wallet from a VM?
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