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Author Topic: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet  (Read 119566 times)
cypherdoc
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October 15, 2013, 10:47:20 PM
 #561

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.
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October 15, 2013, 11:00:02 PM
 #562

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

I believe you are misrepresenting what the MPP ACTUALLY DOES.

It doesn't just kick in and give you 5x the hashrate (Not sure where 5x comes from as it's up to 4 Chips/Modules last I looked which is 4x), it only kicks in enough to let you break even which IS by all means a very good deal as long as the hashrate doesn't explode and you end up needing more than the maximum that the MPP Offers (Which I don't believe you will).

Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months?

Oh and just to let you know, for every 10 KnC Jupiters you purchased you would get a free one so my "ROI" is looking pretty good. Considering each one of my units have already mined ~11 BTC/Each (Roughly $1400/each) Minus the "Free Jupiter" ($7000), making each Jupiter already at about $4760/each right now and only getting lower each day.
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October 15, 2013, 11:04:33 PM
 #563

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

I believe you are misrepresenting what the MPP ACTUALLY DOES.

It doesn't just kick in and give you 5x the hashrate (Not sure where 5x comes from as it's up to 4 Chips/Modules last I looked which is 4x), it only kicks in enough to let you break even which IS by all means a very good deal as long as the hashrate doesn't explode and you end up needing more than the maximum that the MPP Offers (Which I don't believe you will).

Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months?

Oh and just to let you know, for every 10 KnC Jupiters you purchased you would get a free one so my "ROI" is looking pretty good. Considering each one of my units have already mined ~11 BTC/Each (Roughly $1400/each) Minus the "Free Jupiter" ($7000), making each Jupiter already at about $4760/each right now and only getting lower each day.

https://hashfast.com/miner-protection-program/
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October 15, 2013, 11:04:56 PM
Last edit: October 15, 2013, 11:17:57 PM by iCEBREAKER
 #564

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.

Given Bragraphics track record, he should be easy to outrun.

First he invested in ActiveScamming, who are taking longer than KnC to get worse chips and issue dividends denominated in dozens of Satoshis.

Then he lost money to TerraScam, who are refunding 50% of BTC taken.

Next he fell for the LABscam fiasco, because of his habit of either ignoring or attacking all those who point out his conceptual/observational/personal shortcomings.

Everything Bragraphics touches turns to shit and dies.

I hope the powerful incompetence field surrounding Bragraphics doesn't hurt IceDrill!   Tongue


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October 15, 2013, 11:05:40 PM
 #565

Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months?

MPP is fully in BTC.  It based on the theoretical mining rate computed using difficulty.  Essentially if you buy a rig for X BTC and 90 days later using a reverse mining caluclator it says you earned y BTC then you will receive as much additional boards (up to 400% of original purchase) necessary for you to have mined x BTC.  For customers who paid USD/EUR the BTC paid is based on the exchange rate at the day of purchase.

So as an example:

You buy a Babyjet for 50 BTC, 90 days after delivery the theoretical mining revenue based on difficulty over the prior 90 days and 400 GH/s hashrate rate:

10.0 to 12.4 BTC = you would receive 4 MPP boards as compensation.  If 1 board produces 10 BTC then 5 boards (4+1) would produce >=50 BTC.
12.5 to 16.5 BTC = you would receive 3 MPP boards as compensation.  IF 1 board produces 12.5 BTC then 4 boards (3+1) would produce >= 50 BTC.
16.6 to 24.9 BTC = you would receive 2 MPP boards as compensation.  IF 1 board produces 12.5 BTC then 3 boards (2+1) would produce >= 50 BTC.
25.0 to 49.9 BTC = you would receive 1 MPP boards as compensation.  IF 1 board produces 25.0 BTC then 2 boards (1+1) would produce >= 50 BTC.

If the theoretical mining rate is <10 BTC after 90 days you will still only receive 4MPP boards as the MPP maxes out at 400% more than initial order.
If the theoretical mining rates is >50 BTC after 90 days you would receive no MMP "bonus" as you have broken even in the first 90 days.
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October 15, 2013, 11:07:23 PM
 #566

Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months?

MPP is fully in BTC.  It based on the theoretical max mining rate computed using difficulty.  Essentially if you buy a rig for X BTC and 90 days later using a reverse mining caluclator it says you earned y BTC then you will receive as much additional boards (up to 400% of original purchase) necessary for you to have mined x BTC.  For customers who paid USD/EUR the BTC paid is based on the exchange rate at the day of purchase.

and for the mathematically challenged Bragraphics (lol!) 400%=5x.
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October 15, 2013, 11:12:27 PM
 #567

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*.

You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress.
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October 15, 2013, 11:16:37 PM
 #568

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

I believe you are misrepresenting what the MPP ACTUALLY DOES.

It doesn't just kick in and give you 5x the hashrate (Not sure where 5x comes from as it's up to 4 Chips/Modules last I looked which is 4x), it only kicks in enough to let you break even which IS by all means a very good deal as long as the hashrate doesn't explode and you end up needing more than the maximum that the MPP Offers (Which I don't believe you will).

Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months?

Oh and just to let you know, for every 10 KnC Jupiters you purchased you would get a free one so my "ROI" is looking pretty good. Considering each one of my units have already mined ~11 BTC/Each (Roughly $1400/each) Minus the "Free Jupiter" ($7000), making each Jupiter already at about $4760/each right now and only getting lower each day.

https://hashfast.com/miner-protection-program/

Lol, thanks for the link.  Let's see...
"... we will give you up to 400% more hashing capacity than the Baby Jet you purchased. Yes, that does mean that if you don’t make your money back in 90 days"

Loooo!  You can stop tossing that "four extra chips per chip if I don't break even."   You may just get ONE.

Miner protection Cheesy
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October 15, 2013, 11:17:22 PM
 #569

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*.

You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress.

but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes.  at least i have a chance.

where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then?
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October 15, 2013, 11:20:27 PM
 #570

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

That isn't guaranteed.  It is only absolutely true if difficulty continues to grow exponentially forever.  As some point the energy used would be sufficient to liquify the planet earth so I hope that doesn't happen.  Smiley

Difficulty continues to grow because people see potential profit.  At some point there won't be sufficient profit (even theoretical) to sustain the rate of hardware deployment and the rate will slow.

If difficulty slows >90 days from Nov it is possible that 5x the hashrate between days 91 and 180 will produce more revenue than 1x the hashrate in the first 90 days.   It can't be guaranteed but at some point economics and physics does come into play.  At around 20 PH/s and $0.10 per kWh an ASICMiner rig will have a higher energy cost then value of the BTC produced. At some point hardware sales will slow down and at some point the least efficient gear will go dark.
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October 15, 2013, 11:21:16 PM
 #571

Still my question stands, how do they count the MPP "Break Even"? In terms of exactly what you spent in Bitcoins during the purchase (Same amount of bitcoins mined) or the price in USD of the units based on the bitcoin price at the end of the three months?

MPP is fully in BTC.  It based on the theoretical max mining rate computed using difficulty.  Essentially if you buy a rig for X BTC and 90 days later using a reverse mining caluclator it says you earned y BTC then you will receive as much additional boards (up to 400% of original purchase) necessary for you to have mined x BTC.  For customers who paid USD/EUR the BTC paid is based on the exchange rate at the day of purchase.

Nice to see someone that isn't a troll in here with a decent reply.

That's good of them then.

and for the mathematically challenged Bragraphics (lol!) 400%=5x.

Forgive me if I'm wrong because I know you like to twist words around which is the main reason most people dislike you including me but see the following:

.....then i'll get 5x the hashing for free....

Quote
What if a super-duper Exa-hash machine shows up?  

The MPP coverage extends to up to 400% of the capacity purchased. For a Baby Jet, with a nominal 400 Ghash/s capacity, the MPP is limited to sending an additional 1.6 Terrahash/s of additional ASIC hashing capacity, for a total of 2 Terahashes!

400 + 5x400 (x5 the hashing (The hashing being your original purchase) for free) =/= 2000 (2 Terrahash)

You are getting up to "4x the Hashing for Free" or "400% increase in total hashrate" or you could have even said "5x increase in total hashrate" but you definitely implied it was 5x what your purchased for free which is incorrect.

Thank god we can quote their actual website so the crooked can't misrepresent.
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October 15, 2013, 11:26:35 PM
 #572

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*.

You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress.

but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes.  at least i have a chance.

where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then?

I suppose...  There's always a chance.   It's most likely that the real trend here will continue:  ASIC makers will laugh all the way to the bank while their customers lose their monyz.  And, since people here were looking for easy monyz & not trying to rescue kittens, no tears shed by me. Cheesy
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October 15, 2013, 11:28:13 PM
 #573

Bragraphics:

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.   i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners. once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*.

You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress.

but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes.  at least i have a chance.

where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then?
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October 15, 2013, 11:32:54 PM
 #574

I'm not "From KnC", I have KnC Machines and I told John just how many I had when I met with him well before you did. Please refrain from this warefare KnC vs HashFast. As I said in the KnC Thread I dislike you not hashfast.

believe me, it's mutual but please refrain from personal attacks.  it seems to be your modus operandi.

like i said, i think the MPP is a very generous thing and at the rate the network is growing i don't know anyone around here who doesn't think it won't be needed to its fullest extent come 3 mo and at the rate of 5x.

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.  i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners.  once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

this is the whole purpose of MPP; to make HF customers the winners of this race.  like i said, i just have to outrun you.

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*.

You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress.

but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes.  at least i have a chance.

where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then?

Hashrate won't peak out or stabilize unless BTC goes down (which it appears not to be)
or ASIC Manufacturers hit their profit/cost limit which is fairly far away from even what the lowest price is currently (That blackarrow price).

Good luck with your delusions, meanwhile I'm already hashing paying for my miners that unless you missed the point already have paid themselves off lower than I could purchase a batch 1 baby jet.


Oh and like I said before,

If you require your 400% increase in hashrate to break even than you have bigger problems to worry about.
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October 15, 2013, 11:36:09 PM
 #575

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

That isn't guaranteed.  It is only absolutely true if difficulty continues to grow exponentially forever.  As some point the energy used would be sufficient to liquify the planet earth so I hope that doesn't happen.  Smiley

Difficulty continues to grow because people see potential profit.  At some point there won't be sufficient profit (even theoretical) to sustain the rate of hardware deployment and the rate will slow.

If difficulty slows >90 days from Nov it is possible that 5x the hashrate between days 91 and 180 will produce more revenue than 1x the hashrate in the first 90 days.   It can't be guaranteed but at some point economics and physics does come into play.  At around 20 PH/s and $0.10 per kWh an ASICMiner rig will have a higher energy cost then value of the BTC produced. At some point hardware sales will slow down and at some point the least efficient gear will go dark.

We have talked about this before, i think, and i guess i didn't make my point any clearer this time.  It's just an important detail you seem to overlook/undervalue.  I'm talking about pre-orders (many months in advance).  The money is spent, the miner will go online *regardless* of being profitable -- it's going to happen.  Some of these miners even have a hosting contract, guaranteeing that they will not go offline, no matter what.  The profit feedback loop is fundamentally broken here, or rather works with so much delay as to be useless.  

I hope i was clearer.
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October 15, 2013, 11:41:42 PM
 #576

Bragraphics:

doesn't matter if you have a 7 mo contract; it might mean you are even locked in further to your losses.   i believe that the sizes of our individual orders is about average for small miners. once MPP kicks in i, and other HF customers with similar orders, will catapult to 5x this size which could put us in a unique category.  an advantageous one at that.

You will only catapult to five times the size if you failed to make just one fifth of the coin that you spent.  If you fail by a smaller amount, you will "catapult" by fewer chips.  If you have made 1/2 of your money back in 3 months, you will only "catapult" by ONE chip.  Get it?
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October 15, 2013, 11:42:09 PM
 #577

Well preorders only take us so far.   When the difficulty is 4 billion and the break even point (even w/ no difficulty increases) is 3 years+ I doubt many people will be lining up to drop the tens of millions necessary to double difficulty again to 8 billion in a month.

Projecting exponential growth continuing forever is silly.   It will continue sometime as pre-order money "gets deployed" but there WILL be an inflection point.  Where will it happen I don't claim to know the future but the economics around 20 PH/s start looking a lot different then the economics around 2.5 PH/s.   For one thing energy costs will be much more important.
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October 15, 2013, 11:48:28 PM
 #578

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.

"How are you justifying these as fair use?  They are clearly and unequivocally a copyright violation."
"I really want to know how you justify that under the fair use doctrine?  It does not conform to a single point of fair use."
Josh whining about people reusing his studio portrait shot on this forum. Can you copyright a copyright complaint? All Paypal refunds are final.
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October 15, 2013, 11:52:28 PM
 #579

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches it's end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.
Well said
+10

Want to say thanks? 16ragydppe9QFRVhrdwEUjgfMS7KCfEFGY
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October 15, 2013, 11:52:45 PM
 #580

Well preorders only take us so far.   When the difficulty is 4 billion and the break even point (even w/ no difficulty increases) is 3 years+ I doubt many people will be lining up to drop the tens of millions necessary to double difficulty again to 8 billion in a month.

Projecting exponential growth continuing forever is silly.   It will continue sometime as pre-order money "gets deployed" but there WILL be an inflection point.  Where will it happen I don't claim to know the future but the economics around 20 PH/s start looking a lot different then the economics around 2.5 PH/s.   For one thing energy costs will be much more important.

I'm not disagreeing with you that the rate will slow down, only on when & (this is sort-of a weird one) how.  I think we have at least 4 month of uncontrolled growth left, where ASIC makers will be mining their own gear.  I may be wrong.
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