The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.
Please, tell me more I beg you  The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit) Okay, first you could just setup a trading account on Bitfinex and taking BTC loans there, there seems to be about 2000 BTC available for borrowing there, this is a platform not incorporated yet, but the security seems to be relatively solid as these guys put most of their balance in a cold wallet and process withdrawals once per day manually. For options trading the biggest platform is MPEX, but it has been down for days and is notoriously unfriendly to use, or you could try icbit.se, there is also a MPEX passthrough called coinbr(disclaimer: I haven't done any BTC option trading personally yet) So you think there could be demand for the service I outlined (and playtested) in the other thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0It would allow me to just specify in which exchange rate outcome (what price and what week) I want to profit and how much, and calculate the option premium (or call it wager if you will). No need to register anywhere, just send BTC, and the blockchain will testify that everything is done honestly. |
|
|
|
I am saying bitcoin is a step towards having a monetary system that is transparent and publicly owned and operated, and this undermines the current power structure. The ECB report implicitly stated that bitcoin could be a threat to faith in the Euro.
Oh, by the way. Have you *ever* heard from *anyone* that he has faith in the Euro? I mean from a person that has any knowledge of the subject, and is not biased. |
|
|
|
The only shorting platform I know of and use is Bitfinex, for options there are several alternatives.
Please, tell me more I beg you The hard-earned money is at stake now. (I believe this is a service to all, the rally needs to have a breather and I want to profit) |
|
|
|
I would add that any options play / betting or whatever is good, as long as the effective change in payout is along the lines. (Yes, right now it is moving to direction that I not so likely short but anyway the moment of truth is some time tomorrow  |
|
|
|
(I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.)
Great, where will you go short? I can borrow you some.  Hmmm. any suggestions?  My position is about 500. What do you think is the best way to change this to a position of -1000, (so that I profit $1000 for each dollar it loses value)? I don't care about technicalities. What matters to me is - Liquidity. Possible to enter and exit contract within reasonable time (after all it is 1500 BTC change in position) - Security. I don't want to lose my BTC or profits. - Fees. Yeah this kind of play is expensive but I am a very fee-averse person and quite skilled in maths |
|
|
|
During past crashes, the bears would launch a second wave of attack usually 12-24 hours after the first bottom, and that's what made them crashes. This time they did not, a plausible explanation would have been to wait for the weekend so as to maximally exploit the "weekend dip" effect, which apparently hasn't happened.
Yet. (I will sell my all and go short -200% tomorrow night at about the same time, OR if the price falls $3 from the 24 hour high which is currently at $45.50.) |
|
|
|
By "early adopters" I did not mean the core group who have developed and promoted it all along, they certainly understand bitcoin's value and fully deserve what they got. But there are also many out there who just ended up owning a large amount mostly because of luck, like that guy who spent 10,000 BTCs on pizza, or whoever happened to buy thousands when the exchange rate was somewhere around $0.01(if it's a $50 investment you could just throw it in and stop caring even if you lose it all)
Yes, my post was to confirm what you said Luck can go two ways. Had I taken the time to send $1000 to Mt.Gox when it was trading at $.25, I would now have 4000 coins (or likely less because the slippage would have eaten at least 500 |
|
|
|
its low compared to a few epic days we've had lately, but not compared to what has been normal the last few months.
Yes, this is what I mean. After such a spike in volume, a low volume is a dangerous sign. If either side comes back with vengeance, the volume will shoot up and price will move. It is the bulls that need to defend the current price. Until Monday, I believe there is much greater chance for a big move to the down side rather than up. But if we hold $40-$42, the bulls win, cause after this, no one will panic anymore and uptrend will be confirmed. Rather funny, the daily chart does not even show a dip |
|
|
|
eventually the free market will make things fair, that's why the unfair advantage of early adopters theory is a myth.
If we just consider all the time spent on technical development of Bitcoin AND all alt-coins, and charge it at $150 per hour which is quite the norm here for contracting such work, ... I don't know if there is much advantage at all. Of course some will be rich, but it can be attributed to the usual factors why somebody becomes wealthier: - skill - existing capital - hard work - luck And not some magical, unfair, early adopter advantage. I knew about bitcoin in 2010-2011 and it was not really lack of skill or existing capital that I did not invest, it was because of hard work. I was working too hard to have time to seriously consider Bitcoin. |
|
|
|
Even though there is a possibility of a larger correction right now, I'm starting to favor the scenario that this is simply a temporary speedbump. If this is all we get this weekend, well, then bulls will retain control next week. I'd say I'm approximately 65% for the latter scenario and 35% for the former, which is quite different from yesterday.
R U reading my thoughts or the other way round..? Instead of giving odds right now, I would wait over the weekend. If there is no selloff before Monday, the crash is over. If there is, it will be an interim correction taking us to $30 for weeks. I would say $40 is the magic number to watch. Go below, there'll be a rout. Currently creeping up towards $45 looks pretty but is low, low volume and still dangerous. |
|
|
|
That's a $17,000+ buy... wow.
Dude, I was panic buying just about.. um... 9 days ago. Had €5000 and the rate was €25.4 per bitcoin. Hit "market order" and it shot up to €26.2something making a new all time high in the process. That felt also good Disclaimer: I did not add to my own position. I may or may not hold bitcoins. |
|
|
|
Now, does this thread nevertheless mean we are near a major correction back to 20$, 10$ or even less? I don't know. You tell me.
I think it is a hallucination that it would drop below $20 ever anymore. Nothing points to that outcome. However, it may very well tank to $25-$35 area for several months, and I actually think it will, and should, do just that. My prediction is conditional - if the price stays over $42 this weekend, then I don't think it will drop significantly any more after that. But if we see it fall below, the correction is here. (I don't think this should affect long term plans such as taking loan to invest in BTC however... |
|
|
|
I agree with you. Noteworthy is that I see almost nothing between $15-$25 and absolutely nothing in the final blowoff above $35. Between these is where the crash will stop, and in case you sold, I would be quick to buy as I don't expect it to last for long. (If it does, it is not a big deal to buy a little too early.) $32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through)
I think 31.5 is more important, and very strong resistance.  32 was the bubble high, initial crash back to 23ish, when the double top came in it could not breach 31.5 (first chart) This time round (second chart) we saw first approach to 31.5 on 22nd, price backed off and regrouped to make two solid tests of it on 26th and 27th, then break out on 28th. It was always going to be a hug break out with so much riding on it and so much inevitablity (if you are a permabull like me that is! hehe) The spike back down was almost a token gesture of checking if it was resistance, with so much buying pressure pushing it straight back up. (As an aside I think we see that with the recent 'crash' which I actually see as more of a solid test of resistance levels. the fact it went no lower than 32 and came back *so* strongly is huge bullish signal for me.) Of course I'm not a big beleiver in TA, other than it tends to work because people believe it does I'm more about the permabull fundamentals. The invitability of worldwide adoption, the enforced scarcity. I'm already on negative costs basis so I have a good chunk of coin that will never leave my wallet until it *is* money |
|
|
|
Well, still almost completely agree with you , there are early adopters who were not after anything, but played with it for a period just for fun, and accumulated a huge amount, that pizza guy is one example. For the rest, yeah, they may not be in for a quick buck, but whether they could survive the incredible pressure during the 2011 crash and not sold out, is another thing, after all, bitcoin had depreciated 16 times from the top in Nov 2011, it's plausible that many would expect it to just fall into oblivion. Thank you for agreeing with me. If, however, everyone did, I could not make any money in the markets... I mean, I invest $100 of my time and money to mine 10000 BTC. Then I sell during the runup (very weak hand example): 5000 when they start trading at $.10 => +500 USD 3000 when they are in dollar parity => +3000 USD then I am so much in the black and it rises so fast that I don't sell anything until.. 1500 after the 6/2011 crash at $10 => +15000 USD. Price goes down to $2. Would I sell the rest for $1000. Nah. I already made $18400 and who knows if it will rise or likely I just forgot about the thing. Selling completely out is not rational for something that you think has even a chance to change the world. After all we are talking about .0024% of how many will ever exist. You know these things if you were in in 2010. |
|
|
|
Yeah - maybe I formulated it the wrong way. At what price would a 'dead cat bounce' be improbable? I've heard the usual retrace for a dead cat is 80% isn't it? So it was around 45 - broken, but not definitively.
Depends on whether you use single trades, daily close or vwa... I would put it this way: A decisive volume above $50 pretty much eliminates the major crash scenario. Then we would either resume bulltrend or enter a consolidation around $50. I would be very wary for anything below that. Yes, trades over $45 reduce the probability of crash scenario but I would not buy now. That we failed to take over the level 18 hours ago is definitely bearish. 2 hours ago it looked doomed, ready to crash through $40. But is now recovered to $43. Not too late to go short IF rise to $45 and strong but not too hasty action there, we could avert the crash. IF downward action in $41-$44, big probability for another flashcrash come weekend. IF sudden rise to $50, bull trap (->crash) IF immediate crash, well No matter what, if the strong hands decide to sell, they do (->crash). There is absolutely not enough BTC in weak hands to warrant a classic bubble burst yet. |
|
|
|
I almost completely agree with you, although based on my own experience, all major Bitcoin crashes up to now consist of two waves of massive selloffs with a short period of dead cat bounce sandwiched in between, and the golden time window for the second, more massive wave is 12-24 hours after the bottom of the first wave, but I have not seen the second wave yet, of course there could be multiple reasons delaying it, it could still happen.
Besides that, many of the early adopters could be in purely because of luck or their technical prowess, yet have no experience with investment at all, most of these people, I believe, have been washed out in the crash of 2011, but we still can not rule out the possibility that one or two of them hold out until now to cash out.
In other crashes, the initial burst of the tech bubble in March-April 2000, for instance, there can be yoyo-ing between a support line (1/3-1/2 of the ATH) and the high, but a recurring failure to make a new high. In your words, multiple dead cat bounces. Bitcoin is older now, I would give it 72 hours from the initial crash to start a new one. This weekend is going to be interesting. If someone would aim to crash it, he would wait till there is no powder in the exchanges. The early adopters who accumulated significant amounts of coin did it for a purpose and it is naive to believe they just want a quick buck. The ones after a quick buck sold so much in 2011 that they can still live off that, and there is not much need for them to sell more. My conclusion why this crash will be short lived ($50 will be beaten in 6 months for sure no matter what, likely in 2-3 months) is that: - Ultra-weak hands (entry in 2013, bought too much and/or on margin, don't understand/believe BTC) are so few, and they don't hold much. They will shed the coins in a few weeks, hopefully don't lose too much. - Shorting is not widespread and in any case, requires actual btc to be borrowed, also price is not that much above any long-term growth trends. - Healthy new buying from the users of services that use bitcoin as a medium of exchange has just started and will not stall because of price. - Even if some strong hands speculatively sell/short, they understand all of the above and want to buy back soon, and not to play with fire. |
|
|
|
I have no conclusive evidence of course, but the volume of the dips on the way up from $14 to now are significantly(several times) smaller than those at $2-$4, $7.22 and $15.4, if the driving force behind the dips is rational people who bought at low prices taking profits, there doesn't seem to be any reason why they should sell more at low prices, and less at high prices. So my guess is that most of those who participated in the selloff actually bought at prices close to then current prices, as the price went up, these small-time buyers were able to buy less and less, and sell less and less, with most of the coins held either by bulls with strong convictions since the low price or people with deep pockets, thus the smaller downward volume. that's what I would call "elimination of the weaker hands".
Can be, but you can also measure volume in USD, in which case it is now at ATH. IF I were a large early hand, say starting with 25 000 BTC in January 2011, I would have 2 options: - Gradual selling to the strength in order to diversify and/or pay for living - Strategic position to ripple out at certain time/price intervals The choice would be according to my fiat wealth. If BTC is my only asset, I would sell parts of it when I have a chance. If I have $1 million other assets, I would play strategic, determined to be one of the top players in the coming cryptocurrency world, perhaps acquiring more in dips. NOW, the former is a weak hand, because he has no intention to ever buy. The only question is when to sell. The latter is a strong hand. He has no intention to sell except when he feels the greater good (eg. bitcoin adaptation or orderly price appreciation) requires it. He may even buy, and can buy, significant volumes if that is required. I feel that there has been rather many opportunities for weak hands to sell during the runup. This I why I believe now is the time for strong hands to terminate the upleg, for the greater good (also making fiat in the progress that can be deployed back later or used for other purposes during the following months). It is healthy that we do not go into extreme to a bubble. I tend to think, weak hands alone cannot yet make the price crash. The strong ones need to be willing to sell also. I think they should, even if they only profit from $40->$30, stabilising the value of bitcoin around the previous ATH is a service to all. After 2 months we can start a new, healthy rise where everybody smiles. |
|
|
|
I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.
Maybe. The order book is beginning to flip around. The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down. The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up. It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate. Single digits is very realistic. We rallied from $13 to $49, a +277% move in 2 months. It went parabolic in the end. So regardless if we believe in the long term or not, there is a significant (in may estimation: 70%) chance that we enter correction mode and do not make a new ATH in at least a month, probably 1-6 months. The price has several target/support levels though, in descending order: $35 first fibonacci retracement (13+.61*(49-13)) weak $32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through) $31 half retracement (13+.5*(49-13)) weak $30 round number weak-medium $27 second fib. retracement (13+.61^2*(49-13)) medium-strong <- target/support $26 50-dma (vol.weighted moving average) medium <- target $25 round number weak-medium $22 third fib. retracement (13+.61^3*(49-13)) medium-strong $20 round number weak-medium $15 high of 2012 medium-strong $13 base strong I see rather clear target in $26-$27 area. Support starts at $35 and intensifies in $32 and the target area. There is rather little support actually in the vast area between Pirate high $15 and $25. Maybe that is why many speculator aim to buy from there. A safe bet would to start buyback already from $32. Other approaches are too risky if you plan on having BTC to sell also next year |
|
|
|
In fact, if you try to analyze our previous "crashes", you will find that the higher the price, the smaller the volume of the dips, it's a sign of weak hands getting eliminated.
Please explain the reasoning behind this. |
|
|
|
It is not the buyers fault for not assuming Coinibal was running a scam.
LMAO. I will inform Coinabul about this debate. Perhaps they indeed have work to do and care not to read this thread day and night. As a fellow PM merchant myself, I suggest that Coinabul be given until Monday, March 18, to post their offer. This is not an unreasonably long delay. If Coinabul refunds, they can always make up for the delay by giving extra. Also I hope that you refrain from accusations that go further than the handling of a rather small claim from customer. It is a stressful work to sell PM, international shipments are a pain, and there is always the chance that something material has not yet been revealed. (It is not unusual that there is a matter which neither party may want to disclose.) |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
